Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

first failed attempt, but looked so cool figured i'd share it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

A tumbleweed week.
No, Tuesday's pump doesn't count.
Still no ATH...

Bitcoin paradox.
Selling plus time equals loss.
Dreams-come-true? Priceless!

Those who can mine, mine.
Those who cannot mine, run nodes.
The rest, write haikus!

Money in the bank.
This used to be positive.
It still is. For banks!

Please, stay on-topic.
If you don't like this topic,
Start a new topic.

Can men get pregnant?
Only one way to find out.
Lake Titicaca!

What's a picture worth?
Wise men say "a thousand words."
Can you still not see?

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[cAPSLOCK]

So this entire family of podcasts tends to be over the moon level of hype and some of it is not really worth listening to but the podcasts by this guy as well as Dantes show tend to be pretty good content.

So, don't get two sideways about the wacky style of this guy, but this particular episode sums up a lot of what I see.

https://youtu.be/H1jyHD6awpw

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

....... there are people here that think I'm a fool for trying to drag you along,

hahahhahaha

You got that much right.   

[edited out]

today is Jan 18. 2026 btc is over 1.2 under 1.4
I will come back to this idea later.

I am on schedule to get to 2.0 btc sometime late 2026

Of course, in some of my other earlier posts on the topic, I expressed a certain amount of skepticism in regards to the quantity of BTC that you think that you can get (or that you will end up getting), yet part of my point with going through a laying out of projecting out the numbers is that you don't necessarily need to reach higher levels of BTC accumulation to make a system of maintenance and/or sustainable withdrawal work when you project it out and you make various tweaks to it in order to fit your goals or the details of your goals. 

In the end, each of us ends up having to work with what we get and perhaps at some point we start to consider that it is not practical for us to continue to accumulate.  We work with what we had got and we make certain adjustments to make what we have workable... which is part of the reason that the more that you are able to get helps with flexibility with the workable.. yet my own personal thesis is that there are surely ways that we are likely going to continue to be able to withdraw from our bitcoin and still largely end up being advantage from our bitcoin growing in dollar value faster than the rate that we are withdrawing... and also there are ways to make sure that the outcome plays out that way.

I have a sustainable withdraw system implementation account (meaning setting aside a certain quantity of bitcoin dedicated to that account) that I started right around the lowest point of the 2022 lows, and sure, the withdrawal rate was purposefully made lower when the BTC spot price had spent a lot of time bouncing around quite below the 200-WMA (spent a lot of time 20% or more below the 200-WMA), yet the funds in that account have continued to grow in their dollar value to such great amounts that they ongoingly support higher and higher withdrawal rates than what I had been authorizing. 

I think that part of the key is not overly withdrawing from the funds and allowing them to grow with time and little by little higher withdraw rates will become supported by the values and/or supportable, at least in terms of the dollar amounts will continue to increase to higher levels as long as the principle is not overly depleted.

[edited out]

yeah that 0.0105 is right here along with 0.0105 for me
https://mempool.space/address/3Mw9mvjTjWtpxhmctdLa5Awj5gGUbSChKV

I realized if I ever make it to 105 years old  and had to give away 0.0105 btc I had better have at least that much for myself. thus I match it for myself.

It is a lot of potential money to be promising, and if you are putting plans in place to at least to maintain that amount of value through such time (including an equal value for yourself), then you likely have to budget it out and consider a variety of scenarios - including having other wealth and/or other BTC to live upon (to pace yourself).

So for example, if you were to currently ONLY have 1.2 BTC.. yet you were able to figure out that you were going to have right around 2 BTC or more than 2 BTC by the end of 2026, then you could project out your numbers and to figure that you gotta make the amount that you have last until 2061, then you might have limits on yourself, and they probably would not be straight line limits.. but they could be structured to make sure that you never go below certain amounts of BTC at certain points in time..

I already projected out some of the possible details for you that a 10% withdrawal rate would still work for a guy who were to have 2 BTC or more by the end of 2026, and you would still have 0.06112729 BTC remaining by the beginning of 2061..  So your main deal would be to reach the 2 BTC by 2026 or to reduce your authorized withdrawal rate, and then do not reduce that stash (or that portion of your stash) by no more than 10% per year (or I did it with no more than a 5% reduction every 6 months) from 2027 until 2061.

You can look at my projected numbers here (5% reduction every 6 months / 10% annually):

Date       Minimum BTC stash size
5/31/25   1.00000000
11/29/25   1.20000000
5/31/26   1.50000000
11/29/26   2.00000000  (starting amount in late 2026)
5/31/27   1.90000000
11/30/27   1.80500000
5/30/28   1.71475000
11/29/28   1.62901250
5/30/29   1.54756188
11/29/29   1.47018378
5/31/30   1.39667459
11/29/30   1.32684086
5/31/31   1.26049882
11/29/31   1.19747388
...
<snip of extra dates for brevity>
Part of my point in responding to this is that there are ways that you can still reach an amount of BTC that is sufficiently enough and take the worse case scenario that you are not going to accumulate anymore BTC.. so then you are stuck with that amount of BTC, and therefore to stay disciplined in your withdrawal to pace yourself in very powerful ways without fucking around and getting tempted by trading what you have.

So sure.. at some point , you might end up with health problems or dying with more BTC value than you expected to have at the point that you keel over dead.

Based on what I have already seen of your seeming personality, even if you live to 105, I have trouble believing that you would have enough discipline to maintain enough BTC stash through the whole period between now and 2061 in order to make sure that you do not go below the amount of BTC necessary to pay off your promise in the event that you were able to live to 105 in early 2061.  

Call me a doubting Thomas, even though I have specifically outlined a route that you should be able to potentially follow in order to accomplish such objective to have at least 0.0105 BTC (and even at least 0.021 BTC by 2061).  Of course, if you have more BTC at various points along the way (than the required minimum) then you have more BTC cushion, even though more cushion is not necessary (as a bare minimum, and we work with what we have), I will assert that a certain level of discipline is needed for any kind of measured (and sustainable) withdrawal plan that goes so far out into the future (35 years into the future).

By the way so many folks, as they get elderly, they may well end up having to drastically reduce their spending.. and even end up outliving their income or making various portfolio management mistakes along the way, when they are not physically or psychologically (functionally) able to make up for those mistakes by earning more income.

A nice outlay..the only "problem" is that 5% twice a year with 2 btc at, say, optimistically, 100-200K is "just" 20-40K/year starting in late 2026.
It's not nothing and could be a good addition to soc security or pension, but you can't live just on that (in urban US).

I never said anything about living off of it (even though surely there are guys who would be rich with that amount and be able to live off of it).  I was largely suggesting a way to set up a system to make sure that he does not overly spend and that he ends up making sure that he still has 0.0105 BTC (or double that to account for himself of 0.021 BTC)  by the beginning of 2061 when he would turn 105 years.

If we would plug an actual sustainable withdrawal into my time-based sustainable withdrawal system, then we would use the dollar value in regards to our withdrawal rate, and right now 2 BTC (Phil claims he does not have 2 BTC right now) would give us a sustainable withdrawal rate of $11,500 per year, which would be just shy of $600 per week.  With my sustainable withdrawal system that is meant to live off of, I expect a 7% raise each year in terms of the dollar amount.

Surely there is value in guys building up their quantity of BTC or otherwise wait it out before starting to withdraw or maybe withdrawing at a lower rate until they can increase to a higher rate.  Surely the better solution is to accumulate more bitcoin.

I consider my system to be more solid than the one that I gave to Phil because it has the dollar buffer in there. Of course, the one I gave to Phil was meant to just make sure to pace any withdrawals at such a rate that the BTC amount did not go below certain amounts and also to be able to have at least the targeted amount of BTC left over 35 years from now.

However if you got roughly 1/3 covered with soc sec, 1/3 with pension, 1/3 with this btc decumulation...maybe it can even work (leaving Roth 401k balance for the descendants as a legacy, if you want).
Interesting.

Of course, with any preparations not to get put on the streets in our elderly years, we likely have to consider both multiple sources of funds (funding) but also the possibility that some of those sources of funding could either completely dry up or get completely reduced.  In late 2013, when I initially got into BTC, I was thinking that I wanted to grow my BTC enough so that it could at least supplement another funding source that I had (funds in retirement accounts - largely index funds), so that they would end up funding at largely equal value... yet of course, there is really way of knowing what would happen, including that if I did not have BTC I thought that the retirement fund sources would have good chances of largely supporting me along with other kinds of funds that you mentioned (that are surely not guaranteed to hold their value), yet I also considered that it might take me more than 10 years to get my BTC up to a level high enough to match the other funds... and even that was not guaranteed.. even though a good idea to just keep building up the bitcoin funds so that they can pull as much weight as they are able to pull...so of course, in that sense any of us could end up erroring on the side of overdoing it.. which is largely how I started to feel at later points down the road...even though it is nice to have a lot of cushion and even to rest assured that as little as more than 0.63 BTC can end up pulling a lot of weight.

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

yeah that 0.0105 is right here along with 0.0105 for me
https://mempool.space/address/3Mw9mvjTjWtpxhmctdLa5Awj5gGUbSChKV

I realized if I ever make it to 105 years old  and had to give away 0.0105 btc I had better have at least that much for myself. thus I match it for myself.

It is a lot of potential money to be promising, and if you are putting plans in place to at least to maintain that amount of value through such time (including an equal value for yourself), then you likely have to budget it out and consider a variety of scenarios - including having other wealth and/or other BTC to live upon (to pace yourself).

So for example, if you were to currently ONLY have 1.2 BTC.. yet you were able to figure out that you were going to have right around 2 BTC or more than 2 BTC by the end of 2026, then you could project out your numbers and to figure that you gotta make the amount that you have last until 2061, then you might have limits on yourself, and they probably would not be straight line limits.. but they could be structured to make sure that you never go below certain amounts of BTC at certain points in time..

I already projected out some of the possible details for you that a 10% withdrawal rate would still work for a guy who were to have 2 BTC or more by the end of 2026, and you would still have 0.06112729 BTC remaining by the beginning of 2061..  So your main deal would be to reach the 2 BTC by 2026 or to reduce your authorized withdrawal rate, and then do not reduce that stash (or that portion of your stash) by no more than 10% per year (or I did it with no more than a 5% reduction every 6 months) from 2027 until 2061.

You can look at my projected numbers here (5% reduction every 6 months / 10% annually):

Date       Minimum BTC stash size
5/31/25   1.00000000
11/29/25   1.20000000
5/31/26   1.50000000
11/29/26   2.00000000  (starting amount in late 2026)
5/31/27   1.90000000
11/30/27   1.80500000
5/30/28   1.71475000
11/29/28   1.62901250
5/30/29   1.54756188
11/29/29   1.47018378
5/31/30   1.39667459
11/29/30   1.32684086
5/31/31   1.26049882
11/29/31   1.19747388
...
<snip of extra dates for brevity>
Part of my point in responding to this is that there are ways that you can still reach an amount of BTC that is sufficiently enough and take the worse case scenario that you are not going to accumulate anymore BTC.. so then you are stuck with that amount of BTC, and therefore to stay disciplined in your withdrawal to pace yourself in very powerful ways without fucking around and getting tempted by trading what you have.

So sure.. at some point , you might end up with health problems or dying with more BTC value than you expected to have at the point that you keel over dead.

Based on what I have already seen of your seeming personality, even if you live to 105, I have trouble believing that you would have enough discipline to maintain enough BTC stash through the whole period between now and 2061 in order to make sure that you do not go below the amount of BTC necessary to pay off your promise in the event that you were able to live to 105 in early 2061.  

Call me a doubting Thomas, even though I have specifically outlined a route that you should be able to potentially follow in order to accomplish such objective to have at least 0.0105 BTC (and even at least 0.021 BTC by 2061).  Of course, if you have more BTC at various points along the way (than the required minimum) then you have more BTC cushion, even though more cushion is not necessary (as a bare minimum, and we work with what we have), I will assert that a certain level of discipline is needed for any kind of measured (and sustainable) withdrawal plan that goes so far out into the future (35 years into the future).

By the way so many folks, as they get elderly, they may well end up having to drastically reduce their spending.. and even end up outliving their income or making various portfolio management mistakes along the way, when they are not physically or psychologically (functionally) able to make up for those mistakes by earning more income.

A nice outlay..the only "problem" is that 5% twice a year with 2 btc at, say, optimistically, 100-200K is "just" 20-40K/year starting in late 2026.
It's not nothing and could be a good addition to soc security or pension, but you can't live just on that (in urban US).

However if you got roughly 1/3 covered with soc sec, 1/3 with pension, 1/3 with this btc decumulation...maybe it can even work (leaving Roth 401k balance for the descendants as a legacy, if you want).
Interesting.

All kids are dead. Me and the wife are it.

Frankly all the btc value and cash value and gear mining Is say low 200's

it is not needed but is the extra we have.

the SSA pensions and 401k are enough.With some left over.

I am not hurting but I certainly am not rich or in a fu status.

Especially since the pensions and SSA are all Uncle Sam driven.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

$95k is the new $87k until the next run up? I'll take it. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

...
Lake Titicaca!
...

That's where i totally lost it  
And then the brilliant ending.

I'm out of shape, i won't be able to reach you when it comes to haikus, but we are doing it (mostly) for fun anyway  
LFG:

So let's fucking go
let's drag those rusty tin cans
with a thick, old rope

maybe it happens
before the can rusts to dust
can ropes live longer?

getting old and wise
at least wiser, it should read
needs introspection

the final question
will he defeat his demons?
this or be damned

we know life is short
in the end we will regret
the time we wasted

#haiku

EDIT: corrected an error

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hypebrother]

~snip~

Especially since the pensions and SSA are all Uncle Sam driven.

Call me cynical, i don't care. Everything is funny until one end up homeless. Interwebs was a great tool by the Army in the 60s, everyone knows it. I am just seeing how it effects the collective psyche today. Does a youngster, probably around college looks like they got any idea of what's going on in here?

teenage kids speak of money and all, which is obviously good. The only problem is that the denomination starts in millions?

social media is flooded with posts of ''whales" cashing out in billions. Don't you realize that anybody can make a picture online? and also, anybody can access BTC address to get information?

I am speaking for lot of people who are silently watching this thread.

I guess making a 16-17 boy or girl intimidated by showing off your AI generated p/l statements is just an absolute dick move.

DCA is the only way you make sustainable growth monetarily.

Also, Intraday Options trading is just another way to burn your home..but less fun.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

~snip~

Especially since the pensions and SSA are all Uncle Sam driven.

social media is flooded with posts of ''whales" cashing out in billions. Don't you realize that anybody can make a picture online? and also, anybody can access BTC address to get information?

I am speaking for lot of people who are silently watching this thread.

I guess making a 16-17 boy or girl intimidated by showing off your AI generated p/l statements is just an absolute dick move.

I don't think there were many (if any) pics of P/L on this thread...in general people here are somewhat allergic to these kind of disclosures, so it generally does not pertain to WO, albeit even some WO folks were engaged in a bit of bragging from time to time.

That said...before my time here, apparently there was a guy on btctalk who went by "Loaded"...and, apparently, he was, big time, until busted by the feds..as it turned out that he's got his largess by hacking a large account...yeah, the "Road".

Here is the story:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-XoXWnjCQA

[hypebrother]

~snip~

I don't think there were many (if any) pics of P/L on this thread...in general people here are somewhat allergic to these kind of disclosures, so it is generally does not pertain to WO, albeit even some WO folks were engaged in a bit of bragging from time to time.

That said...before my time here, apparently there was a guy on btctalk who went by "Loaded"...and, apparently, he was, big time, until busted by the feds..as it turned out that he's got his largess by hacking a large account...yeah, the "Road". Interestingly, stealing from an unlawful operation is ALSO not legal.

Here is the story:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-XoXWnjCQA

Thanks for the link.

I saw couple of weeks ago, I do not remember the user. This person constantly talks of 'trading' as a highly rewarding game, which everyone know is bullshit.

The major reason of economic decline among Indian youth is the same addiction to options trading. Yes, you get a rush when you see the pixels move up and numbers grow quickly on the screen when it's green, but lest we forget the many people who died by suicide when they lost everything and succumbed to debts or maybe even killed by loan sharks.

I already mentioned few months ago how BTC had a very condescending image which was (obviously) not a misunderstanding. It was pictured as being used by mafia, terrorist orgs and drug cartels. Like the mentioned video.
Just because silkroad used BTC doesn't mean BTC is a scam, yes?

Then we have dudes who speak of high income and getting 'insanely' rich with 'methods' which in other words is called organized crime syndicate's advertisement.

2017, India: Around midnight, just before the day of blanket ban on 'virtual currencies,' We had many bank managers having a awakening moment when they decided to open the bank shutters in midnight. I am not talking about centralized banks here. The kind of 'co-op' banks who can just make up shit by writting down papers and changing dates on the ledger.

[Biodom]

...and why we suddenly dropped almost 2K?

Natural buyers and sellers, right?

Right 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

oh some dip to get.

[BTCETFInvestor]

All kids are dead. Me and the wife are it.

Frankly all the btc value and cash value and gear mining Is say low 200's

it is not needed but is the extra we have.

the SSA pensions and 401k are enough.With some left over.

I am not hurting but I certainly am not rich or in a fu status.

Especially since the pensions and SSA are all Uncle Sam driven.

Phil - But think about all that money Uncle Sam's government job paid you, and now in retirement your pension and SSA or maybe both integrated under FERS.

Have you thought about adding some spot BTC ETF in your 401(k) account like many retirees are doing?