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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26918843 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Richy_T
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January 22, 2026, 03:42:09 PM
Merited by vapourminer (4)

they are what you say but to make matters worse.

do a yearly assessment to get compounding action.

go to a large development say 1000 homes worth 500k.

have an LLC buy five homes on one block in that development over pay on purpose.

say 575k for a 500k house.

that is 2.875 million for 2.5 million worth of homes.

then assess all 1000 homes at 575k raising  taxes 15% say 6k to 6.9k

the city now generates 1000x900=900,000 in extra taxes and those five homes were over paid only 275k

worse you can not fight the 15% assessment raise because the fight are only allowed on assessments that went up over 15%

this has happened to me the last three years.

7200 property tax is now 10,600



I think this is something local governments can choose to do but an increase in assessment does not necessarily lead to an increase in property tax. My assessment has gone up quite a lot but my taxes, thankfully, remain about the same.

By my understanding, the typical method is to sum the budget (or appropriate segment thereof) and divide it by the total rateable value of all properties to give the rate. This is applied to individual ratable values. Thus, if all ratable values rise approximately equally, the actual tax should not vary much.

It seems like your local gov may be using the rate change to cover for a ballooning budget. Especially as they are doing it in a way that makes it hard to fight. It was something like 10 years since my house was reassessed previously. It's also possible that they're pulling shenanigans like increasing ratable value on some properties and not others.
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January 22, 2026, 03:47:27 PM

what are you talking about?

you don't see silver up 3+trillion in market cap since jan of 2025
you don't see gold up 15 trillion in market cap since jan of 2025
you don't see platinum and palladium up about 1 trillion combined since jan 2025

Market cap is not very useful and triply so with Bitcoin where it is hard to say exactly how many coins are even available.

For example: If we have 1M WO coins worth 1000, that's a market cap of 1B. If you sell me one for 2000, that is a market cap of 2B. That doesn't mean 2B entered the market. Of course, this cuts both ways.
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January 22, 2026, 04:01:21 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
asUHWEceyc
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January 22, 2026, 04:01:48 PM
Merited by vapourminer (5), JayJuanGee (1)


who sets your net worth anyway?

such as we have decided suddenly pine cones between 4-8 inches in length on a particular day in a certain part of the country/state/town are worth 25 thousand bucks apiece for a limited time that coincides with exact day of the net worth calculation and only then.  and dont worry we have arial photography of your properties we will calculate your unrealized gains on these pine cones for you...

ka-ching

Yup, real estate property taxes in the US are exactly like proposed unrealized capital gains taxes but even worse still: the government decides how much you've gained rather than via market pricing.

Sure, there are plenty of carveouts and exemptions, which were obviously instituted to stop the pitchforks, but theft that once surely seemed outrageous has been completely normalized, and proving lower value is at the "owner"'s effort and expense- not the taxing entity's.

Somewhat new and insidious would be the move for total registration of all personal value for later theft and third party transfer for $reason.


they are what you say but to make matters worse.

do a yearly assessment to get compounding action.

go to a large development say 1000 homes worth 500k.

have an LLC buy five homes on one block in that development over pay on purpose.

say 575k for a 500k house.

that is 2.875 million for 2.5 million worth of homes.

then assess all 1000 homes at 575k raising  taxes 15% say 6k to 6.9k

the city now generates 1000x900=900,000 in extra taxes and those five homes were over paid only 275k

worse you can not fight the 15% assessment raise because the fight are only allowed on assessments that went up over 15%

this has happened to me the last three years.

7200 property tax is now 10,600


Right, the "free market" can be conscripted to juice thefts to particularly good effect with new fiat origination. The price level of virtually all real estate is a reflection of the incredible amount of institutionalized leverage, with fake money incentives for all parties- taxing authorities, buyers, lenders. Maybe a preview of where "digital asset" treatment's headed with more clarity?

Imagine Blackrock, JPMorgan, etc. creating dollars to "invest in" the bitcoin spot price to compound asset transfer to the gov't, who'll later simply give it to Blackrock and JPMorgan outright, or for safekeeping (with a tasty vig).

Oh wait, isn't Saylor currently executing the first piece?
philipma1957
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January 22, 2026, 04:03:53 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

they are what you say but to make matters worse.

do a yearly assessment to get compounding action.

go to a large development say 1000 homes worth 500k.

have an LLC buy five homes on one block in that development over pay on purpose.

say 575k for a 500k house.

that is 2.875 million for 2.5 million worth of homes.

then assess all 1000 homes at 575k raising  taxes 15% say 6k to 6.9k

the city now generates 1000x900=900,000 in extra taxes and those five homes were over paid only 275k

worse you can not fight the 15% assessment raise because the fight are only allowed on assessments that went up over 15%

this has happened to me the last three years.

7200 property tax is now 10,600



I think this is something local governments can choose to do but an increase in assessment does not necessarily lead to an increase in property tax. My assessment has gone up quite a lot but my taxes, thankfully, remain about the same.

By my understanding, the typical method is to sum the budget (or appropriate segment thereof) and divide it by the total rateable value of all properties to give the rate. This is applied to individual ratable values. Thus, if all ratable values rise approximately equally, the actual tax should not vary much.

It seems like your local gov may be using the rate change to cover for a ballooning budget. Especially as they are doing it in a way that makes it hard to fight. It was something like 10 years since my house was reassessed previously. It's also possible that they're pulling shenanigans like increasing ratable value on some properties and not others.

yep my 1000 home development is under a systematic property tax attack.

In NJ we have home rule and it means many smaller towns with police forces.

Our police force was the state police from 1800 and change until 1973 in 1973 we got a local cop force.

So state taxes still go to state police and now local police are paid by homeowners property tax.

So 19723 to say 2000. first set of cops sate to retire and the town pays them a pension

so in 2000 say 50 cops and 50 on pension means 100 salaries paid by property tax.

its 2025 second set of cops are done and first set are not so dead.

Ie you works from 1972 to 2000 left at 50 it is 2025 you are 75 and you are alive.

and now the second tier is out on retirement

or 50 + 55 + 60 = 165 pay checks for 60 working cops.

and NJ cops are paid well.

in 2000 when the first round left to retire they were getting 60k pensions.

this set of retiring cops get 100k pensions

so you are paying with all three groups about 100x165=16,500,000 in pension medical and salaries all directly from the property tax fund of around 75 million.

Not ending anytime soon.

Maybe 3 more years of solid tax raises coming meaning I go from 10,600 to maybe 14,000-15,000  a year in property tax.

pretty fucking brutal. as all our pensions get 2 or 3 % jumps which get eaten up by medicare , blue cross and Long term care insurance jumps..

Hueristic
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January 22, 2026, 04:17:34 PM

yeah i use silver as a way to make cash to buy btc

he wants more silver to hold it.

its has always dropped back since 1800 AD.

It will drop back again.

ChartBuddy
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January 22, 2026, 05:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
philipma1957
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January 22, 2026, 05:19:18 PM

yeah i use silver as a way to make cash to buy btc

he wants more silver to hold it.

its has always dropped back since 1800 AD.

It will drop back again.



I sold 20 Morgan silver dollars and I purchased some corn right after the sale.
Hueristic
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January 22, 2026, 05:29:44 PM

yeah i use silver as a way to make cash to buy btc

he wants more silver to hold it.

its has always dropped back since 1800 AD.

It will drop back again.



I sold 20 Morgan silver dollars and I purchased some corn right after the sale.


 
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 22, 2026, 05:34:10 PM

yeah i use silver as a way to make cash to buy btc
he wants more silver to hold it.
its has always dropped back since 1800 AD.
It will drop back again.



I sold 20 Morgan silver dollars and I purchased some corn right after the sale.


 


i sold some scrap gold and was gonna buy btc but wifey got some custom jewelry instead

no regerts Smiley
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January 22, 2026, 05:39:58 PM

[
The latter is quite common, almost normal, in right-winged people. Does NL still have a rightist government? IIRC... Geert Wilders, i think?


Wilders is extreme LEFT not right, that's just bullshit MSM spouts. Go read his party's program if you don't believe.

Netherlands has very little right but they like calling a lot of left right.

You seem to be confused on left vs right. Here they teach left vs right in grade school, so most children know about it before age 8, but hey, to each their own.
Hueristic
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January 22, 2026, 05:51:23 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

yeah i use silver as a way to make cash to buy btc
he wants more silver to hold it.
its has always dropped back since 1800 AD.
It will drop back again.



I sold 20 Morgan silver dollars and I purchased some corn right after the sale.


 


i sold some scrap gold and was gonna buy btc but wifey got some custom jewelry instead

no regerts Smiley

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January 22, 2026, 05:52:21 PM
Last edit: January 22, 2026, 06:08:14 PM by JayJuanGee

Brian Armstrong said that they are still discussing the Crypto bill and will be finalized next month.
Bitcoin pumps ---> portion of gold/silver moves into Bitcoin ---> retail fomo ---> Wallstreet and WO selling making a killing ---> retail fcked again -as always-.

Numbers could go from ~$200,000 to over $300,000.

Many of us likely find it disturbing to witness a decent number of folks who sold around these price areas to seeming to be getting rewarded (in the short term) for selling around these price areas and to be trading bitcoin rather than investing into bitcoin.

It does seem like some of the BIGGER players have pretty good incentives to manipulate the BTC price down as much as they can and for as long as they can so that they can fill up their bags and while ongoingly getting the longer term bitcoin holders to sell decent quantities of their coins.

There are surely longer term bitcoin holders who are losing their faith in the future pumpability (pumpamentals) of bitcoin. We do get some amount of this in every cycle in terms of some of the bitcoin holders losing faith and selling too many coins too soon.  Sometimes they sell on the way up and then other times they get frustrated and sell on the way down or during seemingly long consolidation periods.

Even newbie no coiners and/or low coiners seem to get frustrated by BTC price movements, even though it would seem that anyone who is a newbie no coiner and/or a low coiner, then they should have less to lose in terms of just figuring out how much of a position that they would like to take and then acting upon that in order to get in, whether that is $100 per week or some other amount that they might be willing to extract from their discretionary income (to the extent that they have discretionary income that is sufficient for their chosen investment size - frequently DCA works, even though there is lump summing and buying the dip - even though I surely am not much of a fan of buying the dip strategies (practices) from newbie no coiners/low coiners since they likely need to actively start accumulating bitcoin rather than waiting for dips that might not happen.  

If a newbie no coiner/low coiner starts to DCA, and perhaps dedicates 20% of his DCA amount to buying dips as a way to supplement his DCA, then that is probably an o.k. approach, even though pure DCA is likely to be better for normie newbies no coiner/low coiners during their first whole cycle of building up their bitcoin stash - especially if they do not other investment and/or resources that they would be able to reallocate into bitcoin in order to frontload their bitcoin investment, and an overwhelming majority of normies do not have lump sum amounts available, but instead they have their regular cashflow.

[edited out]
I guess me and Peter Thiel are alike in that we will openly say such crazy things.

Are you and Thiel alike in terms of your BTC stash size too?

Asking for a friend.


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

you don't see silver up 3+trillion in market cap since jan of 2025
you don't see gold up 15 trillion in market cap since jan of 2025
you don't see platinum and palladium up about 1 trillion combined since jan 2025
Always we had a discussion about Bitcoin Vs Gold now Silver is playing a role he can enter in this discussion.
In recent price surge in our local Market Silver price pumped 2x within 1 and half months time period.

Should we consider silver now a rival of Bitcoin?
My bags with Silver made 2x within this short period , who knew silver will pumped this much. I wish I had bought a bit more silver.

I have a hard time imagining how silver could be better than gold as a rival to bitcoin in terms of its monetary properties, and bitcoin is around 1,000x or more superior to gold..  We should not get distracted by temporary movements and/or momentum, and do we really need to go over the various monetary properties in which bitcoin is superior to gold and/or silver?  O.k... I will do make a brief reference. just because it seems that some folks don't really understand monetary properties and why bitcoin is so much superior to both gold and silver (and any other assets/currencies) in terms of monetary properties... Think about monetary properties in terms of verifiability, transportability, divisibility, scarcity, costs to hold/transport and/or other monetary properties.  

How the fuck could you conclude that silver is even close to bitcoin in terms of monetary properties, and even the market shows that over the years gold beat out silver and fiat beat out gold - even though gold, silver and various other precious metals are experiencing some recent upward momentum, especially in the last year and a half for gold and in the past 6-ish months for silver.

By the way, I had heard that there are some aspects of silver's production process that makes it more difficult and/or less practical to spin up production, which surely can help it out in ongoing short-term UPpity momentum.

Hopefully not too many guys are getting too much distracted into gold and/or silver, even though as @Phil mentioned in one of his recent posts (in his attempt at a definition of soontm), it might be difficult to discount the fact that either or both of them could still have a year or more of ongoing Uppity.. . Perhaps? Perhaps?  I am not claiming to know (or to care very much), even though surely guys have to figure out their own balances in regards to how they might be allocating to any of the PMs as compared with bitcoin, and sure it likely makes some differences in regards to PMs if they already own the physical aspects and they are already used to dealing with the physical aspects...

Not buying silver though it hit 3T,
Won’t touch bitcoin till it’s 30T.

Holding paper USD till it’s 2T,
Watching charts, I move how I please.

It looks like "you please" to have fun staying poor. 

You do you.
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January 22, 2026, 06:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
xhomerx10
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January 22, 2026, 06:32:33 PM

Brian Armstrong said that they are still discussing the Crypto bill and will be finalized next month.

Bitcoin pumps ---> portion of gold/silver moves into Bitcoin ---> retail fomo ---> Wallstreet and WO selling making a killing ---> retail fcked again -as always-.

Numbers could go from ~$200,000 to over $300,000.

I can’t imagine this happening suddenly, but it sure would be nice if it did before tax time. I really don’t understand where this trillion dollars is going to come from that everyone keeps saying will be injected into the market when the bill passes, but it would be a wonderful surprise to have the opportunity to find out.

 A trillion dollars... Pfft! That's just a little Minnesota mischief.
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January 22, 2026, 06:36:16 PM

this is all on realized losses or gains

Realized losses and gains are a different story; I get the cash and don't mind much paying taxes on the profits.

It's the whole "if you're up this year cash in some to pay us (wait, do you then have to pay more taxes on the amount you use to pay the unrealized gains?) but fuck you if you have losses thing.

who sets your net worth anyway?

such as we have decided suddenly pine cones between 4-8 inches in length on a particular day in a certain part of the country/state/town are worth 25 thousand bucks apiece for a limited time that coincides with exact day of the net worth calculation and only then.  and dont worry we have arial photography of your properties we will calculate your unrealized gains on these pine cones for you...

ka-ching

 Dammit!  Now what am I going to eat?  Pine cones were my staple.
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January 22, 2026, 06:45:51 PM



Are you and Thiel alike in terms of your BTC stash size too?

Asking for a friend.


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


No, I don't know how much he holds, but I can guarantee you I have nothing near what he holds. Not even on the same planet.  Lol.

On the other hand, I think he sold a substantial portion of his Bitcoin relatively recently, and I haven't done that.
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January 22, 2026, 06:55:43 PM
Merited by Richy_T (1)

what are you talking about?

you don't see silver up 3+trillion in market cap since jan of 2025
you don't see gold up 15 trillion in market cap since jan of 2025
you don't see platinum and palladium up about 1 trillion combined since jan 2025

Market cap is not very useful and triply so with Bitcoin where it is hard to say exactly how many coins are even available.

For example: If we have 1M WO coins worth 1000, that's a market cap of 1B. If you sell me one for 2000, that is a market cap of 2B. That doesn't mean 2B entered the market. Of course, this cuts both ways.

And since it's only becoming easier and easier and easier to naked short sell Bitcoin the outcome is even more unpredictable.
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January 22, 2026, 07:01:19 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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January 22, 2026, 07:05:56 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2026, 01:31:22 AM by Biodom
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (4), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

The last two years are a bit bizarre in bitcoinland.
What should have been bullish was bearish, etc, etc.

I am also at a loss trying to explain to myself the rise of metals as you cannot buy anything with a chunk of metal and exchanging it is not price-efficient (try to sell a piece of gold at the gold dealer).

It is almost like civilization has lost it's wits and became, effectively, a blubbering moron.
That said, I am not sure what to do about it...maybe just get a place with a good view, grow fruits and vegetables, swim and take long hikes.

TL;DR With civilization apparently in a nosedive, how one may cope?
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