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January 25, 2026, 06:12:04 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26918207 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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store secretK on Secret place is almost impossible


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January 24, 2026, 08:02:21 PM

interesting that nobody is talking about the seemingly upcoming softfork


If this is what you mean below BIB 444 I assume?

what do you give it for odds of being implemented in 2026?

https://www.btcc.com/en-CA/square/Cryptoslate/1109877

No, B444 will be implemented (hardfork) in 2027 if nothing is done. said LDjr

The softfork that is happening is B101>

Quote from: BIP101
...
Abstract>

 Temporarily limit the size of data fields at the consensus level, in order to correct
 distorted incentives caused by standardizing support for arbitrary data, and to
 refocus priorities on improving Bitcoin as money.

Specification
Blocks during a temporary, one-year deployment are checked with these additional rules:

1-New output scriptPubKeys exceeding 34 bytes are invalid, unless the first opcode
 is OP_RETURN, in which case up to 83 bytes are valid.

2-OP_PUSHDATA* payloads and witness stack elements exceeding 256 bytes
 are invalid, except for the redeemScript push in BIP16 scriptSigs.

3-Spending undefined witness (or Tapleaf) versions (ie, not Witness v0/BIP 141, Taproot/BIP 341, or P2A) is invalid. (Creating outputs with undefined witness versions is still valid.)

4-Witness stacks with a Taproot annex are invalid.

5-Taproot control blocks larger than 257 bytes (a merkle tree with 128 script leaves) are invalid.

6-Tapscripts including OP_SUCCESS* opcodes anywhere (even unexecuted) are invalid.

7-Tapscripts executing the OP_IF or OP_NOTIF instruction (regardless of result) are invalid.

 Inputs spending UTXOs that were created before the activation height are exempt
from the new rules. Once the softfork expires, UTXOs of all heights are once again unrestricted.
(...)


Bitcoin nodes running BIP-110 crosses 2% as spam wars heat up
 
The number of Bitcoin BTC nodes signaling support for Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110
 (BIP-110), a temporary soft fork limiting the amount of data included in each transaction
 at the consensus level, rose to 2.38%.

583 out of 24,481 nodes are running BIP-110, and the primary node software
 implementation for running the soft fork proposal is Bitcoin Knots,
 according to The Bitcoin Portal.

BIP-110 limits the size of transaction outputs to 34 bytes and caps the OP_RETURN
data limit to 83 bytes. The temporary soft fork will be deployed for 1 year,
with possible extension or alteration after the 1-year term, according to the
 proposal’s GitHub page.
(...)
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January 24, 2026, 08:02:27 PM

And?

Do those paper bitcoin pushers (providers) have any of the bitcoin to back up those claims on bitcoin?  In other words, do they have as many bitcoin as they claim to have?  We know that entities like that do not shoot straight, and they will take every opportunity to shave off extra profits when they can get away with it, and also to control and manipulate the market as much as they are able to accomplish.  Perhaps contrarian goals, yet certain insiders are able to get away with fleecing aspects of the public when they are supposedly "providing a needed service."
Without publicly and easily auditable balances, I do not believe that ETFs hold all the coins that they claim to hold. Without this they are easily able to hide that they have plenty of paper coins. This is why institutions tend to refuse to do this or avoid the topic, it has nothing to do with security or whatever else they say.. a signed message or other proof or reserves methods once per month would go a long way.

Of course, they do not want to be monitored either.

If they make their bitcoin addresses public, then whenever they move coins or they make claims that are contrary to the bitcoin addresses, then the public may well end up losing confidence in whatever spins that they are making, and the public ends up knowing too much and can put together the inconsistencies of various spin claims that are being made.

They (sure some are more manipulative and benefitting from obscurity more than others) love to keep us in the cave (in a Plato sense) as long as they can and as far away from the light as they can get us to stay.  Historically, they have made a lot of money through those kinds of various smoke and mirror manipulation systems, and they are not going to change their ways without trying to keep their manipulative (Cantillon) systems as long as they are able to get away with such.

and the issue is very simple.
if illegal immigration is wrong.  then every state that has sanctuary is in an act of open rebellion against the federal government.
soooo why doesn’t don the man lock up all the governors of all the sanctuary states and put them on trial?

less people to arrest don’t need to run the icemen all over the states.
to me the donald is at a fail point by not grabbing 1 governor at a time or all the governors at once and putting them on trial.
the crux of the issue is a state allowed to declare itself as a sanctuary state or not.

seems to me that this is actually a civil war happening as I type.
and I do not understand why The donald does not come to my state and arrest mikie sherril for allowing the executive order signed by murph the surf in 2019 to stay on the books.

if he did that either he would win in court or lose and then we would have real legit sanctuary states or criminal goverments that need to be jailed.
i truly think the don is at a major fail here by not going after the various governments that declared they are a sanctuary state.
btw i think the democrats favoring illegal immigration’s are fuck8ng nuts 🥜.

My antennae go up whenever anyone takes a seemingly publicly controversial topic and proclaims the matter to be "very simple"

In regards to certain topics like immigration, policing and/or property rights there are states rights and federal laws that sometimes will contradict, and on certain sub-topics, including local policing, the federal laws are not always supreme even if there might be some federal policies that overlap with the topics.

And?

Do those paper bitcoin pushers (providers) have any of the bitcoin to back up those claims on bitcoin?  In other words, do they have as many bitcoin as they claim to have?  We know that entities like that do not shoot straight, and they will take every opportunity to shave off extra profits when they can get away with it, and also to control and manipulate the market as much as they are able to accomplish.  Perhaps contrarian goals, yet certain insiders are able to get away with fleecing aspects of the public when they are supposedly "providing a needed service."
Without publicly and easily auditable balances, I do not believe that ETFs hold all the coins that they claim to hold. Without this they are easily able to hide that they have plenty of paper coins. This is why institutions tend to refuse to do this or avoid the topic, it has nothing to do with security or whatever else they say.. a signed message or other proof or reserves methods once per month would go a long way.
@BitHodlers - You have no trust in SEC Reporting & Regulations? Sad for you!  Sad
Bitcoin is designed to remove trust, adding back trust does not make sense. It is just plain wrong.
I would respectfully push back against this notion as a simple axiom.
It's a little too black and white for my liking.  I agree with the notion that trust minimization is extremely important, particularly in certain circumstances, and must be fought for to be maintained.

I think that trust in itself isn't negative. Being forced to put trust in someone or something is negative.
But I'm not arguing against what I believe is your greater point.  The idea that an ETF, for example, is superior because it offers many advantages in exchange for your trust is not that simple.  Exposing yourself to Bitcoin price volatility through an institutional instrument contains many trade-offs that might not be worth the cost.

So I think it is a worthy thing to prioritize, trust minimized tools and processes that are built on top of Bitcoin.  But it will also be somewhat advantageous under certain circumstances to also introduce small amounts of trust back to the picture.

A simple example of this would be a multi-signature wallet for which one key is held by a paid third party. They can only access your funds through collusion with one of the other two members (in a two of three) but they are there to be coordinated with in the event something happens to one of the other two keys.

This is a much different trust trade-off than what we have with something like the ETFs.  And something far more palatable to me.
So everybody's got to make their own choices about where they're going to place their trust and what trade-offs are worth a sacrifice of it.

Isn't the context of "trust" here related to potential dilution of bitcoin's supply?  I surely consider privacy on the individual level to be more important to protect as compared with companies who are luring in investors and also custodianing bitcoin that supposedly is sufficiently backing up shares that they had issued.   There should be public concerns (and public interests) in regards to ETF providers and/or their custodians not having as many coins as they claim to have and/or if they might be otherwise manipulating bitcoin prices with coins that they have and/or coin moving (and/or storing or acquisition/selling) practices that they are employing.

In other words, it seems to me that individuals deserve way more privacy than institutions (and/or governments) that are proclaiming to be providing services to the public and profiting off of those services that they are supposedly providing to the public.

For sure, the republicans just love the concept of state's rights until the democrats start to use such concepts, and I doubt that dilemmas get resolved easily - and courts likely would not resolve the matters either - even if Trump were to proactively begin to arrest governors and/or other levels of state/local officials in regards to the sanctuary matters.

[edited out]
My guess is the woke little snowflake lives in Croatia or Slovenia, maybe Hungary...

Aren't you the most lovey-dovey bot than no one ever met.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

Comparative WO-ology:
To me, this market "feels" like 2018.
In 2018, upon the first 68-70% decline from 20K to about 6.4K, market stabilized for quite a long time (from about June to Nov), only to undergo another 50% decline to about 3.2K minimum in Nov-Dec.

If this market would "rhyme": we had an initial 36-37% decline, now we are in a range, maybe.
Let's say, middle of the range is 89K. Therefore, this analogy suggests stability for maybe 4-5 months (this timing is not important, though) and then a sharp decline of another 20% or so. Numbers are smaller than in 2018 because the climb was much shallower.
20% decline from 89K is $71.2K, slightly undercutting the first "tariff" drop.

71.2K vs 126K is a 43.5% "bear", which would be quite "bear-able".
TL;DR Judging by the fact that markets seem to be "stuck", we are in a true bear, which would conclude earlier this year than cycle adherents expect.

Wow!!!!!

Biodom declares a "true bear."

You heard it here first.

For some reason I sent you an smerit, even though I don't necessarily agree with you, yet in any event, if you end up being correct, I better cut my looses, since I am going to end up losing my bet with LFC.

At least I have 2 months and 1 week more to prepare my lil selfie (which is 9.5 weeks according to the calendar).   Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry

[edited out].........

Excuse me? Or rather...what?

Bears will not be tolerated.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

[edited out]
I remember Dec 2017 ($19k) and Dec 2018($3.5k). Even in 2019, price went mostly under $10k.
I have made a resolve that I will buy maximum if Bitcoin went down to $70k.

Between if price went down to $70k then JJG might win the bet (CMIIW).

As far as I know, my only outstanding bet is with LFC regarding whether our $126,272 might be breached prior to April 1, 2026.  There is no bottom angle to the bet, yet if the BTC price goes that far down in the coming weeks (and it is not just a flash crash), then it is going to become quite difficult for me to win that bet with LFC - and even right now it is not looking too good, absent an ability to get a 1 quarter extension on the bet (which I am not even sure if that will resolve the matter to better put the odds in my favor in a way that is materially likely to end up in a favorable outcome in my direction).
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January 24, 2026, 08:39:33 PM

Comparative WO-ology:

To me, this market "feels" like 2018.


In 2018, upon the first 68-70% decline from 20K to about 6.4K, market stabilized for quite a long time (from about June to Nov), only to undergo another 50% decline to about 3.2K minimum in Nov-Dec.

If this market would "rhyme": we had an initial 36-37% decline, now we are in a range, maybe.
Let's say, middle of the range is 89K. Therefore, this analogy suggests stability for maybe 4-5 months (this timing is not important, though) and then a sharp decline of another 20% or so. Numbers are smaller than in 2018 because the climb was much shallower.
20% decline from 89K is $71.2K, slightly undercutting the first "tariff" drop.

71.2K vs 126K is a 43.5% "bear", which would be quite "bear-able".

TL;DR Judging by the fact that markets seem to be "stuck", we are in a true bear, which would conclude earlier this year than cycle adherents expect.



Excuse me? Or rather...what?


Meh, I should used a bat slap but I'm ornery today.
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January 24, 2026, 08:41:30 PM

I'm reading some news today and they say that this ICE thug commander looks a bit like and acts like a Nazi - and then I think of all those Nazis that the US captured after World War II or somehow recruited to work for them, so it makes sense that some of that Nazi blood has remained to this day.

Then again, they say that the father of the current US president is a pure German, so some of the methods he implements are not very strange if you go back some 80 years into the past.

     

Do you live in the United States Lucius?  Just curious.

he does not ,

and the issue is very simple.

if illegal immigration is wrong.  then every state that has sanctuary is in an act of open rebellion against the federal government.

soooo why doesn’t don the man lock up all the governors of all the sanctuary states and put them on trial?

less people to arrest don’t need to run the icemen all over the states.

to me the donald is at a fail point by not grabbing 1 governor at a time or all the governors at once and putting them on trial.

the crux of the issue is a state allowed to declare itself as a sanctuary state or not.


seems to me that this is actually a civil war happening as I type.

and I do not understand why The donald does not come to my state and arrest mikie sherril for allowing the executive order signed by murph the surf in 2019 to stay on the books.

if he did that either he would win in court or lose and then we would have real legit sanctuary states or criminal goverments that need to be jailed.

i truly think the don is at a major fail here by not going after the various governments that declared they are a sanctuary state.

btw i think the democrats favoring illegal immigration’s are fuck8ng nuts 🥜.

.....

Maybe he wanna avoid the risk losing in court...

And if he won, the illegals would have to be deported anyways
If he got that ruling in court he would be able to fully mobilize against any sanctuary state.
.....


yes exactly ... IF
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January 24, 2026, 09:01:16 PM


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January 24, 2026, 10:01:14 PM


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January 24, 2026, 11:01:13 PM


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January 24, 2026, 11:11:17 PM

Hey ETF observer!



I'm reading some news today ~

I guess you also favour this statement: “a good German, is a dead German”, right? Riiight?
Are you far right sweetheart?



@BitHodlers - You have no trust in SEC Reporting & Regulations? Sad for you!  Sad

Didn’t your mother educate you not to trust strangers?
Why the fuck should anyone trust anything they say?

You can’t be such a moron, but if you are, sad for you indeed.



It's all going to be okay, gentlemen. The world isn't going to end.

Now, how sure are you about that capsie?
Perhaps we should ask Borealice.



certainly Love Will Keep Us Together.

Borealice! I love ya too man!
I recall you liked the last time I called you a weasel - ultimately confirming the spot-on definition.



Bitcoin is designed to remove trust, adding back trust does not make sense. It is just plain wrong.

Mmmkay, I’ll play.
Trust in what? Code? Code changes. The Core? The miners? The energy required rn to keep the network afloat? What?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m kinda with you, but but … I don’t even trust my dick these days, so there is that.



should be fun for my birthday week coming up.

Well, Happy Birthday in advance phil!
May you live a long long time, buying the tops and selling the bottoms. We (it’s royal, motherfuckers) need you!



Excuse me? Or rather...what?

Cmon, don’t act so offended. Just remember the good ole days. Cool



mining does not normally get easier to do

Tell ya what phil.
Let the hashrate crater, so we can mine on our laptops again! Huh? That would be great, no?
Looking forward to seeing Bitcoin becoming POS instead of POW, under ETF custody. All them, what reserves? Yeah, give me a hurray, hip hip …



I’m considering turning full roach on you guys. I mean really, or maybe a hybrid between roach and proudhon*.
On one hand we have the resident liars and manipulators, and on the other we have that … ETF shill guest star guy, giving a nullius vibe - but so did Annoymint for that matter.
nah-til-dah might have a further insight, but then again, who fucking cares.

I do dig the fact the he is bashing the fuckbot, but that’s about it. Sucking on phil’s dick so, soo, but sooo hard, just leaves me in awe. Bare back absolutely.
*Or maybe I’ll just be myself
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January 24, 2026, 11:26:34 PM

I'm reading some news today and they say that this ICE thug commander looks a bit like and acts like a Nazi - and then I think of all those Nazis that the US captured after World War II or somehow recruited to work for them, so it makes sense that some of that Nazi blood has remained to this day.

Then again, they say that the father of the current US president is a pure German, so some of the methods he implements are not very strange if you go back some 80 years into the past.

     

Ice are fat stupid slobs, that's the difference.

I am sure there are some good ones.  But they do not seem to be the top tier LEOs for sure lol.
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January 24, 2026, 11:30:08 PM

I'm reading some news today...

Fake knews or real knews?
Who knews?

 Cheesy
Quote


I mean, DUDE!
Why the fuck don't you just look at THE HAND before spreading fake AI-pics like this one?
Do you think this guy has only three knuckles (and either 3 or 5 fingers) on his right hand?
The arm-to-hand posture is unnatural, and if i'd look more closely i'd find some other AI errors in this "photograph".
(EDIT: I actually did and already wanted to cry out loud after looking at the watch and chin...)
Is it only me? I know, details tend to sting in my eyes before my brain "assembles" the whole picture in my mind, but i don't believe that even more than 50% who actually look (at hands in this case, as mostly with this kind of "photographs" of people), are missing those details.

However, this fake "photograph" trend really seems to get a problem. Every other pic has to be checked for AI already. This makes reading the web, especially on "news sites" pretty complicated and unnatural. Or do i suffer from some kind of "fake-news-paranoia"?

And if we think it is hard to know what's real now... 
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January 24, 2026, 11:31:21 PM

I loaded a lot 0of btcnow, but what really interests me is the diff chart.

we missed 6 consecutive drops by 1 block we had 5 of 6 drops which is still rare.

mining does not normally get easier to do



Do you think there might be a generation of hardware getting priced out?
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January 24, 2026, 11:46:32 PM

^. capsie, calm the fuck down, that’s three posts in row dude, relax.
I won’t be posting much, do.not.worry.  Grin
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January 24, 2026, 11:46:45 PM
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I would respectfully push back against this notion as a simple axiom.
It's a little too black and white for my liking.  I agree with the notion that trust minimization is extremely important, particularly in certain circumstances, and must be fought for to be maintained.

I think that trust in itself isn't negative. Being forced to put trust in someone or something is negative.
But I'm not arguing against what I believe is your greater point.  The idea that an ETF, for example, is superior because it offers many advantages in exchange for your trust is not that simple.  Exposing yourself to Bitcoin price volatility through an institutional instrument contains many trade-offs that might not be worth the cost.

So I think it is a worthy thing to prioritize, trust minimized tools and processes that are built on top of Bitcoin.  But it will also be somewhat advantageous under certain circumstances to also introduce small amounts of trust back to the picture.

A simple example of this would be a multi-signature wallet for which one key is held by a paid third party. They can only access your funds through collusion with one of the other two members (in a two of three) but they are there to be coordinated with in the event something happens to one of the other two keys.

This is a much different trust trade-off than what we have with something like the ETFs.  And something far more palatable to me.
So everybody's got to make their own choices about where they're going to place their trust and what trade-offs are worth a sacrifice of it.

Isn't the context of "trust" here related to potential dilution of bitcoin's supply?  I surely consider privacy on the individual level to be more important to protect as compared with companies who are luring in investors and also custodianing bitcoin that supposedly is sufficiently backing up shares that they had issued.   There should be public concerns (and public interests) in regards to ETF providers and/or their custodians not having as many coins as they claim to have and/or if they might be otherwise manipulating bitcoin prices with coins that they have and/or coin moving (and/or storing or acquisition/selling) practices that they are employing.

In other words, it seems to me that individuals deserve way more privacy than institutions (and/or governments) that are proclaiming to be providing services to the public and profiting off of those services that they are supposedly providing to the public.

For sure, the republicans just love the concept of state's rights until the democrats start to use such concepts, and I doubt that dilemmas get resolved easily - and courts likely would not resolve the matters either - even if Trump were to proactively begin to arrest governors and/or other levels of state/local officials in regards to the sanctuary matters.


Yes.  As I answered this question my mind hovered over whether or not to introduce that next wrinkle.  I decided to keep it simple.

The ETFs (but not only them) introduce layers of trust risk that has an effect on the entire network.  When they sell bitcoin shares short somehow it puts artificial but 100% real downward pressure on the market price.  And I say "somehow" because there are more than one way for them to be short bitcoin.

Someone might say: "But they are legally required to hold Bitcoin 1:1 in their funds." 

There it is.  The point of TRUST.

When the main players are the GIANT BANK stakeholders in the Federal Reserve who HATE bitcoin and see it as a threat to the US dollar as well as the regulatory agencies who are FULL of people who also HATE bitcoin and see it as a threat to the US dollar then the idea that they might collude to control the BTC price is not really so far fetched.  On top of that the rules around how they must purchase/hold the coins could have time frame or other soft variables that give loopholes to short selling.

Trust me bro.

And as I said it is not just the ETFs.  Leaving coins on exchanges is exactly as damaging, though a wee little more distributed.

It is elementary for exchanges to sell various coins short.  They are naturally fractional reserve "banks".

Jack Dorsey has said he believes bitcoin will have failed if it is not used transactionally.  I want to disagree with him.  But I find it difficult.  Bitcoin reduced to "digital gold" is tacet failure.  Not because that is not a worthy use but because in that use case it is simple to centralize and control JUST like has been done with Gold for over 100 years.
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January 24, 2026, 11:50:58 PM

^. oh my, breath, just breath.
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Today at 12:24:12 AM

Just pondering the scenario - roachie making a comeback - would be fun to observe. Cheesy
With silver and gold to the moon, and Bitcoin crashing down to it’s 4 year cycle support.

That said, ETF’s always break cycles.
#What.ever.the.fuck.that.means.
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Excuse me? Or rather...what?

Cmon, don’t act so offended. Just remember the good ole days. Cool


I am not offended, but it is because of posts like this most people don't care to 'predict' anything around here.
It's just a fact.
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Today at 12:34:36 AM

Just pondering the scenario - roachie making a comeback - would be fun to observe. Cheesy
With silver and gold to the moon, and Bitcoin crashing down to it’s 4 year cycle support.

That said, ETF’s always break cycles.
#What.ever.the.fuck.that.means.

come on, post with your "real" nick, bro.
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