Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Why would it be strange that a man who has been repeatedly accused of racism and who is said to have a penchant for some very harsh methods would not greet in this way? Maybe the picture and video are fake, but as someone said, how do you know what's real and what's not?

Drawing a conclusion that someone is a Nazi based on a picture in which they are waving is dishonest.

And if you *believe* your assertion then I would respectfully suggest you consider who you are being dishonest with.

It is possible to make points of disagreement without resorting to cartoon level associations and wild interpretations of images.

Taking a still of someone with their arm raised is not the same as someone saluting troops.

I cant believe this is even a discussion.

I couldn't give to shits if the pos is a Nazi or not but that is not a proper AMERICAN salute, no matter how ANYONE wants to fucking twist it.

Semper Fucking FI mother fuckers.

[OutOfMemory]

But all is a distraction of the last killing done of a veterans administration nurse.

Things are coming to a head here and we are likely to see far more killings in the next month.

Sad as the one thing trump actually has totally correct is crushing illegal immigration’.

And the leaders of sanctuary state are basically like the leaders of the south were about slavery.

Rebellion and civil war is actually happening and has been happening for years.

Basically think thinks idea NJ governor signs an executive order extending Italian Norwegian Americans a license to make crack and fentanyl in bulk .

Crazy wrong correct?
So why is an executive order to allow illegals unvetted to stay in NJ at the harm of legal people.

I truly blame every sanctuary state for having these laws and I truly blame Donald for not going right at the leadership for making the laws.

Trump getting matters right or not is a matter of opinion, but obviously he's acting irresponsibly.
That's about the main aspect i criticise about him, the other ones are the conspiray/fake news affinity and corruption.
Those three together make quite a mess, resulting in a flood of executive orders that circumvent the established democratic process of the US.
And i hope you guys won't get into large scale problems because of this.

Back to btc.

Mining seems to be shutting down bigly as I type. a very large drop in hash rate which much be followed to see if it continues.

We are down over 15%. Which means my mining dca move is being helped bigly.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   933754  (27 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   82.3672%  (347 / 421.28 expected, 74.28 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Current Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 116739782473095 and 132749577445141
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.5963% and -6.2954%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:29 PM  (-3.2801%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 6, 2026 at 1:07 PM  (in 12d 0h 24m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 8, 2026 at 2:25 PM  (in 14d 1h 42m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 22h 37m 49s and 16d 23h 55m 45s

Note it is early so the drop may not continue

Isn't hashrate followed by price (so far)?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Isn't hashrate followed by price (so far)?

Frisky today! Going from political discussions to whether or not hash rate follows price. We might as well go straight to Judaism versus Islam next!

But yes, I belong to the sect of people who believe that hashrate is a leading indicator more often than not.

If I were a "cycle still exist" type person, right now would be making me feel pretty strong about my convictions.

(Actually, I do think cycles still exist. I just think they will have diminished in their influence to the extent they're starting to fall into the noise. I don't think we're in the middle of a long bear market, but we're certainly in the middle of a short one.)

[Gachapin]

X

That would mean we visit the 70s and get out within about a month

[cAPSLOCK]

X

That would mean we visit the 70s and get out within about a month

I think the oijia board.. tea leaves.. and sticks... and lines.. and numbers our lining up to make that prediction pretty solidly in the case that we are in a downswing that extends past this point.

My own hairbrained chart fiddling points to something in the mid-70s. 

But I have no idea what I'm doing when I'm playing with charts.

[OutOfMemory]

Isn't hashrate followed by price (so far)?

Frisky today! Going from political discussions to whether or not hash rate follows price. We might as well go straight to Judaism versus Islam next!

But yes, I belong to the sect of people who believe that hashrate is a leading indicator more often than not.

If I were a "cycle still exist" type person, right now would be making me feel pretty strong about my convictions.

(Actually, I do think cycles still exist. I just think they will have diminished in their influence to the extent they're starting to fall into the noise. I don't think we're in the middle of a long bear market, but we're certainly in the middle of a short one.)

Seems i was unaware and tripped into a hornet nest?
So the answer to my question would start a debate?
Didn't even would want that, but i second your view on the cycles.

About the hashrate: Following (intuitive) logic, price would likely follow hashrate, because who would be wanting to mine at falling prices if he can save the operational cost above a break-even price level? So hashrate will fall ahead of price(s). When difficulty has decreased by some amount, mining can be resumed as long as the price is good enough in relation to difficulty. So after flattening out a low, hashrate should increase ahead of price, again.
Is that too simple to roughly describe the (possible) underlying dynamics?

[cAPSLOCK]

Isn't hashrate followed by price (so far)?

Frisky today! Going from political discussions to whether or not hash rate follows price. We might as well go straight to Judaism versus Islam next!

But yes, I belong to the sect of people who believe that hashrate is a leading indicator more often than not.

If I were a "cycle still exist" type person, right now would be making me feel pretty strong about my convictions.

(Actually, I do think cycles still exist. I just think they will have diminished in their influence to the extent they're starting to fall into the noise. I don't think we're in the middle of a long bear market, but we're certainly in the middle of a short one.)

Seems i was unaware and tripped into a hornet nest?
So the answer to my question would start a debate?
Didn't even would want that, but i second your view on the cycles.

About the hashrate: Following (intuitive) logic, price would likely follow hashrate, because who would be wanting to mine at falling prices if he can save the operational cost above a break-even price level? So hashrate will fall ahead of price(s). When difficulty has decreased by some amount, mining can be resumed as long as the price is good enough in relation to difficulty. So after flattening out a low, hashrate should increase ahead of price, again.
Is that too simple to roughly describe the (possible) underlying dynamics?

I was only joking using a little hyperbole to create levity.

I do think the the idea of what comes first, hash rate or price, is one of those things, kind of like do cycles still exist, where you get these entrenched camps, where one side thinks one thing and another side thinks another, but certainly not as strongly divisive as something like Nazis or whether or not pineapple goes on pizza.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

But all is a distraction of the last killing done of a veterans administration nurse.

Things are coming to a head here and we are likely to see far more killings in the next month.

Sad as the one thing trump actually has totally correct is crushing illegal immigration’.

And the leaders of sanctuary state are basically like the leaders of the south were about slavery.

Rebellion and civil war is actually happening and has been happening for years.

Basically think thinks idea NJ governor signs an executive order extending Italian Norwegian Americans a license to make crack and fentanyl in bulk .

Crazy wrong correct?
So why is an executive order to allow illegals unvetted to stay in NJ at the harm of legal people.

I truly blame every sanctuary state for having these laws and I truly blame Donald for not going right at the leadership for making the laws.

Trump getting matters right or not is a matter of opinion, but obviously he's acting irresponsibly.
That's about the main aspect i criticise about him, the other ones are the conspiray/fake news affinity and corruption.
Those three together make quite a mess, resulting in a flood of executive orders that circumvent the established democratic process of the US.
And i hope you guys won't get into large scale problems because of this.

Back to btc.

Mining seems to be shutting down bigly as I type. a very large drop in hash rate which much be followed to see if it continues.

We are down over 15%. Which means my mining dca move is being helped bigly.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   933754  (27 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   82.3672%  (347 / 421.28 expected, 74.28 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Current Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 116739782473095 and 132749577445141
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.5963% and -6.2954%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:29 PM  (-3.2801%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 6, 2026 at 1:07 PM  (in 12d 0h 24m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 8, 2026 at 2:25 PM  (in 14d 1h 42m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 22h 37m 49s and 16d 23h 55m 45s

Note it is early so the drop may not continue

Isn't hashrate followed by price (so far)?

sometimes who follows whom is hard to tell.

but this drop is unusual if it continues over 15%

[Gachapin]

any cup noodle flavor recommendations for this year?

[philipma1957]

do not use noodles due to diabetes .

I go with chicken broth with two  eggs.

maybe chop in a carrot.

fairly cheap and healthy

chicken broth 2 bucks for 1 quart
eggs are 13 cents each
a carrot is about 25 cents

so

2.00
0.26
0.25
2.51 for 2 servings

a glass of water and a 1 a day vitamin and you will survive on it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Hey, touched strong liquidity zone.
Curious if we'll go much lower from here.

[xhomerx10]

any cup noodle flavor recommendations for this year?

 We're going to have to resort to road-kill bone broth.  Why did skunks have to be one of the slowest moving mammals?

[philipma1957]

Isn't hashrate followed by price (so far)?

Frisky today! Going from political discussions to whether or not hash rate follows price. We might as well go straight to Judaism versus Islam next!

But yes, I belong to the sect of people who believe that hashrate is a leading indicator more often than not.

If I were a "cycle still exist" type person, right now would be making me feel pretty strong about my convictions.

(Actually, I do think cycles still exist. I just think they will have diminished in their influence to the extent they're starting to fall into the noise. I don't think we're in the middle of a long bear market, but we're certainly in the middle of a short one.)

Seems i was unaware and tripped into a hornet nest?
So the answer to my question would start a debate?
Didn't even would want that, but i second your view on the cycles.

About the hashrate: Following (intuitive) logic, price would likely follow hashrate, because who would be wanting to mine at falling prices if he can save the operational cost above a break-even price level? So hashrate will fall ahead of price(s). When difficulty has decreased by some amount, mining can be resumed as long as the price is good enough in relation to difficulty. So after flattening out a low, hashrate should increase ahead of price, again.
Is that too simple to roughly describe the (possible) underlying dynamics?

does not always do it.  but sometimes it does.

of course there is a shift to ai which is a function of my 5 cent power can earn 7 cents with ai and only 6 cents with asics.


i used 5,6,7 obviously numbers could be

3 per kwatt spent
5 per kwatt earned by asic
8 per kwatt earned by ai

also some times the issues are not building size but transformer size.

ie my warehouse has 2 megawatts on call but has room for the miners and the ai pcs

so i turn on or lease the better gear.

in a way i like the hashrate drop as it increases my dca of btc at zero cost.

but i only want so much dropoff maybe down to 120t the next few months.

always hard to know the future.


for instance with the second shooting in minnesota and maga calling for no guns (some officials) my guess is gold and silver will moon tonight when they open in asia.

reasoning is survival freaks and maga freaks (please no offense but freaks is easy to spell) both like gold and silver.

So a big uptick tonight is coming. I do not bet but my certainty level on this is huge bigly massive.  So lets see how right or wrong I am.

BTW I stacked hard today. way over my 0.0011 mining  ⛏️ on my 0.001 paypal buys.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

any cup noodle flavor recommendations for this year?

 We're going to have to resort to road-kill bone broth.  Why did skunks have to be one of the slowest moving mammals?

I would go for Alpaca bone broth and boiled head/brain soup.

As for drinks, I'd go full-on Waterworld. Times are going to be tough. It's sexy, too!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I am pretty much negatively impressed that no one of the people commenting on this tweet (at least the first few pages, top-down) were able to spot this.
However, they likely didn't inspect single frames, like i did.

Seems to be one of your specialties.  Thanks for your service.

 

No, B444 will be implemented (hardfork) in 2027 if nothing is done. said LDjr

The softfork that is happening is B101>

The soft fork is not happening and the hard fork means that they will have their own altcoin, it is not relevant to Bitcoin. Lukecoin..

Luke et al seem to be exaggerating (delusional about) their level of support.

We are down over 15%. Which means my mining dca move is being helped bigly.

You must be BIGLY excited.

Just imagine how BIGLY excited you could have had been if you had bought 2 BTC in mid-2020-ish in the ballpark of $5k per coin (not even the complete bottom of the 2020 price drop), and even MOAR BIGLY excited if you had hung onto such coins since that time?  It would have had been relatively painless.. and also largely negate any needs for you to have to engage in any bitcoin mining, fucking around with silver or copper or forever stamps, and add those shitcoin components to your cashflow (BTC stacking) uncertainties in the past 5.5-ish years..

Drawing a conclusion that someone is a Nazi based on a picture in which they are waving is dishonest.
And if you *believe* your assertion then I would respectfully suggest you consider who you are being dishonest with.

It is possible to make points of disagreement without resorting to cartoon level associations and wild interpretations of images.

It is a really bad way to approach these things in the long term. I imagine that normal people in Germany or Austria would be afraid to accidentally make this salute, but also public people. Just because some bad guys used some hand movement in the past I am now not allowed to use it without being a bad guy? Slowly but surely we will end up censoring many behaviors and speech this way..

You are correct that it would be a form of speech, and if people are complaining about one form of speech versus another form of speech, then that would be just various forms of speech counteracting other forms of speech.  There could be some self-censoring going on with certain kinds of speech, yet censorship from a legal standpoint tends to need government action in order to constitute censorship, yet we know how, in recent times, governments sometimes will get their wishes carried out through private actors (or forums), so then it can sometimes be more difficult to trace the government conduct that would be needed as one of the elements to show censorship.

I would imagine that Hitler salutes have inflammatory connotations, so you might have difficulties doing them out in pubic without getting backlash from people who see it.  In private contexts they could be gotten away with, yet what would the person be wanting to signal with such salute? Hitler was right? or something else?  We have quite a few topic areas that might be challenging to get away with taking certain stances, and some folks do engage in certain kinds of speech merely for the shock value, which may well be an acceptable form of speech.

Back to btc.
Mining seems to be shutting down bigly as I type. a very large drop in hash rate which much be followed to see if it continues.

We are down over 15%. Which means my mining dca move is being helped bigly.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   933754  (27 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   82.3672%  (347 / 421.28 expected, 74.28 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                            
Current Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 116739782473095 and 132749577445141
Next Difficulty Change:   between -17.5963% and -6.2954%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:29 PM  (-3.2801%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 6, 2026 at 1:07 PM  (in 12d 0h 24m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 8, 2026 at 2:25 PM  (in 14d 1h 42m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 22h 37m 49s and 16d 23h 55m 45s

Note it is early so the drop may not continue

Isn't hashrate followed by price (so far)?

sometimes who follows whom is hard to tell.

but this drop is unusual if it continues over 15%

We are barely 3 days into the difficulty period and you are projecting out greater than a 15% downward adjustment, even when the estimation of hashrate data is showing a range that is between negative -6.3% and -17.6%.. . and, that is a pretty BIG range to be presuming the final number to be greater than a 15% downward adjustment.

For sure I am not much of a fan of hashrate leading BTC prices, even though there can be some random correlation from time to time in which hashrate may go up or down in connection with various bitcoin related happenings... .. and yeah, hashrate might be one of many factors to consider in terms of what may or may not be happening in and around bitcoin, bitcoin price moves and bitcoin mining moves.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com