...
Ofc they stand no chance against Israel or/and the US in the long run, but they certainly have the ability to outright flatten Telaviv and probably also inflict more casualties and damage to the US forces in the region than their people at home are willing to bear.
So far, all their retaliation attacks have played more or less nicely and were rather de-escalating and only face-saving as they were announced and only in quantities that did only lightly saturate Israels whatever-dome (I hear they have to be golden nowadays). But now the Iranians are with their back to the wall and willing to fire all they have and that IMO will have a devastating effect on their two counterparts (Israel & US).
Watching the oil price closely since some time as I need to fill my 8000L heating oil tank I agree that oil is starting to price in a closing of the Strait of Hormuz as well as a much increased chance of a direct and open war with Iran (which would possibly end up to be a proxy war against BRICS).
I think that was one of the major drivers for the current taking-money-off-the-table move we saw.
I didn't check but I am pretty confident arms and defence company stocks are all up nicely today.
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....wow, this Russian snow camouflage is really bad...
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- Iran’s military ‘ready for a renewed war’
Iran’s military is in “high-alert mode” as it prepares for the possibility of an
imminent US attack despite concerted diplomatic efforts to avoid a conflict,
analyst Abas Aslani told Al Jazeera.
- Iran’s military spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia told state television
that US aircraft carriers have “serious vulnerabilities” and that numerous US military
assets in the Gulf region are “within the range of our medium-range missiles”.
- Iran’s President Pezeshkian has stressed that his country is ready to respond
immediately and decisively to “any aggression”.
- Asked whether that meant he would back potential US strikes on Iran,
Starmer said, “I am saying we support the goal and we are talking to allies about
how we get to that goal.”
- Turkiye’s Hakan Fidan has said his government hopes the United States
does not attack Iran, amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.
He warned that the aggression would cause “great harm” to a fragile region.
..
He also said that retaliations will not be random as in the last attack suffered, the targets of retaliation are already decided.
"This time we will treat any attack - limited, unlimited, surgical, kinetic, whatever they call it - as an all-out war against us, and we will respond in the hardest way possible to settle this," the official said.
"If the Americans violate Iran's sovereignty and territorial integrity, we will respond," said the Iranian official. He declined to specify what an Iranian response might look like.
"A country under constant military threat from the United States has no option but to ensure that everything at its disposal can be used to push back and, if possible, restore balance against anyone who dares to attack Iran," the official said.
Iran Vows ‘Unprecedented’ Retaliation To US Attack
Former Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani:
"A limited [U.S.] strike is an illusion. Any military action by America,
of any kind and at any level, will be considered the start of a war,
and the response will be immediate, comprehensive, and unprecedented,
directed at the aggressor, at the heart of Tel Aviv, and at all who support the aggressor."
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What if Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz?
...One way Tehran could retaliate would be to block or effectively close the
Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
This narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf handles about a quarter
of the world’s seaborne oil trade. So if Iran were able to deny access to the
giant tankers that ferry oil and gas from the Middle East to China, Europe, the US
and other major energy consumers, it would send oil prices shooting higher
and potentially destabilize the global economy.
Rising tensions in the Middle East have been enough to send crude prices higher
even without a single shipment of oil being disrupted, with the benchmark Brent
grade rising to its highest in six months during the last week of January.
at the time of covid, the BCO reached more than 133$ at april 2022 after fall to 20$ from april 2020,
-Brent demand at the moment is not high, but if they close the Strait of Hormuz
for some reason, most of the world's oil production passes through there,...
Yes, they can easily remove a sunken oil tanker there in many ways,
even towing, but who will be the hero to risk taking a hypersonic one?
Of course, in addition to mines, drones, submarines and others can prevent the passage of ships in the strait.
-What they're saying: More expensive oil, more expensive gasoline, impeachment of Trump,
or not being re-elected
I haven't found any source yet, but also, in case of the fall of the government,
they already have a list of government replacement, and no, the name of Kamenei's
son is not on the list, he will flee with his father to Russia.
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In addition to oil, who is also not feeling this correction of metals today is copper
World will need 50% more copper than we have today:
S&P Global’s Yergin CNBC’s “The Exchange” team discusses global demand
for copper amid the AI boom, market outlook and more with Daniel Yergin of S&P Global.
Copper futures dropped more than 3% to around $6 per pound on Friday, reversing a sharp rally from the previous session amid a broad retreat across the metals complex. Investors locked in profits after copper, gold, silver, and other metals surged to record levels, while a nascent rebound in the dollar added further pressure. Market participants also reassessed the fundamentals behind the recent speculative rally, which had been driven in part by expectations of higher long-term demand amid limited supply following decades of underinvestment in new mining projects. Demand projections are supported by surging investment in data centers and the electrification infrastructure needed for AI services and electric vehicle charging stations. Recurring tariff threats from US President Donald Trump further amplified the rise in metal prices, as investors sought hard assets amid economic uncertainty and deteriorating confidence in the dollar.
...According to analysts, gold's fall today is due to the future central bank president
possibly not exceeding expectations of an interest rate cut...
but D.T. junior said he'll cut it without pressure... a lot of narrative...
Poll
