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February 01, 2026, 10:44:24 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26922367 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Biodom
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January 31, 2026, 06:11:11 PM

Bitcoin ETFs do what the investors want.
Investors buy the ticket, then ETFs buy more actual bitcoin (allegedly).
Investors sell the ticket, then ETFs sell the underlying bitcoin.
It's not a complicated math.

..and yes, at some point the leveraged mess of a financial system would have a margin call.
but bitcoin "moth" keeps having these margin calls all the time, therefore, i don't think that bitcoin would be deeply threatened even if it drops (or surges) in price.
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January 31, 2026, 06:12:17 PM

I got me 78.5k dip

ever closer to 2.0 btc
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January 31, 2026, 06:22:34 PM

I got me 78.5k dip

ever closer to 2.0 btc

My DCA day is tomorrow but another dip buy is on the way…
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January 31, 2026, 06:42:14 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It's been reported that Bitcoin ETFs have halted new capital Intake.

Bitcoin ETFs halted new capital intake, showing poor performance. They have experienced steady daily outflows for four consecutive days.

The trend reflects weakening investor appetite amid broader crypto‑market volatility and declining Bitcoin prices.

Over $500M has been wiped our; Bitcoin funds saw a $509.7 million reduction in assets during this period, with BlackRock’s ETF responsible for a large share of the withdrawals.
There is broader market weakness as the outflows coincide with a wider crypto downturn, where Bitcoin has fallen sharply and overall crypto investment products have seen nearly $1 billion in outflows in a single day.


A salutary lesson for those who were clamoring for the institutional investors.

As always, the weak hands need to be shaken out.
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January 31, 2026, 06:43:26 PM
Last edit: January 31, 2026, 08:04:19 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1)

I just saw this news,
Bitcoin No Longer In World’s Top 10 Most Valued Assets
Quote
Bitcoin has just lost its place among the ten most valuable assets in the world. This downgrade, far from trivial, reveals a growing fragility of the crypto market, caught up by revived volatility. While traditional markets rebound, the iconic crypto suffers rare intense selling pressure. Behind this brutal setback, the entire solidity of the narrative around bitcoin wavers, questioning its ability to withstand macroeconomic shocks and violent market adjustments.

https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-no-longer-in-worlds-top-10-most-valued-assets/
The market is unexpectedly down now, there is no telling when it will recover, I think it could go down a bit more. What is your opinion? Is it likely to go down further? Or will it recover very soon?

Ninja~  Huh
Right now the momentum seems to be pushing towards down, even though it is possible that momentum can change at any time, yet until it does, there can be falling knife kinds of worries in regards to figuring out how much there are abilities to continue to shake folks out of their coins.

If you are new to bitcoin (which might be reflected in your October 2025 forum registration date - right around the top (or the BIG crash of 10/10)- even though maybe you got into bitcoin before that?), then I would imagine that you would be ongoingly buying, since waiting for dips that may or may not happen does not tend to be a great strategy for low coiners or no coiners, yet guys can choose what they like in regards to their BTC accumulation strategies.**

Edited:  ** I did a quick glance at your posts, and from one of your posts, I see that you do seem to have some understanding of the value of ongoing BTC accumulation for bitcoin newbies.

[edited out]
I am not sure why you guys are negging on Phil's stack.
He was using bitcoin as Satoshi originally intended-"electronic cash".
The "invention" of "bitcoin is a savings method" was not very clear until, maybe early 2017.

I am pretty sure that there was a lot of discussion of bitcoin as a good investment vehicle by as early as 2010 - Hal Finney made a post about bitcoin going to $10 million or something like that.

Even when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, my reasons were partly based on the idea that bitcoin was potentially a better gold and a way to hedge dollar debasement - which was my own reason for planning my initial 6 months of investing and the budget that I allocated for buying bitcoin in the first 6 months.. which once I established my 6 months budget, I divided that number by 26 in order to give myself a weekly budget.. for that initial period where I also planned to look further into bitcoin too.. .. so take an initial stake in bitcoin and study it at the same time to potentially reassess the matter after 6 months... even though also my original intention was to try to invest for at least 2 years, or to try not to abandon in less than 12 months...

i am not claiming that my early investment ideas were great, but they were still motivated by my understanding of bitcoin as a digital gold kind of a hedge against the dollar.. .and sure the ability to spend component was also there, yet I did not get into bitcoin in order to spend it... not initially.

Besides, 2btc is about 100X of what the average earthling may have and more than at least 6X of what an average $/euro/yen/rmb millionaire may ever get.

You are right.  2 BTC is a lot in terms of both overall global distribution, and even a lot in terms of what is feasible for any normal person (even rich person) to be able to accumulate in the coming 4-10 years or longer.

Even guys who are so well off as to be able to buy $500 per week of bitcoin for the next 10 years, they would have had invested right around $26k over a year, which means $260k over the next 10 years, so I have a hard time imagining that even 1 BTC could be over the next 10 years even for a guy who is able to muster up a decently large budget to be able to invest $500 per week... and of course, with anything, if someone is in their early accumulation phases, they should be appreciating flatness of the BTC prices and even when the BTC price goes down so that they can continue to accumulate with hopes that they end up accumulating more BTC prior to the next time that bitcoin might end up stair stepping in the UPpity direction (if ever?).

What is your opinion? Is it likely to go down further? Or will it recover very soon?
Yes. It will go down or recover, as always. But what's in it for you? Merit?
I only post here to know the current market situation, sentiment and everyone's different opinions, but from your style of speaking, it seems that all posts are for merit, and that is why everyone who posts here (low rank), their only intention is to gain merit, especially if they do not have Bitcoin, then they have no connection with Bitcoin and also they are not allowed to know the market situation. All in all, I want to say that if someone does not agree with my opinion and also if someone does not like my post, that is absolutely normal and I welcome that. But please avoid questioning the motive without any basis, and just avoid me if necessary.

Ninja~  Wink

It takes time for guys on the forum to get to know you and perhaps to feel comfortable that you might be a human rather than a bot or even a spammer, scammer or some other kind of current undesirable - such as part of a merit farming group, so already established members are going to tend to be skeptical of newbies... and there have been a lot of issues with bots and/or low quality posts that can be more difficult to detect if the member is using AI to generate garbage posts or if they are drafting the ideas themselves (to the extent that they might be posting substantively meaningful content, so it can take a while to figure out which newbie forum members are even human or not.. not that members are going to necessarily know which members have been tagged as a shitposter or not.

must buy some dip.
edit: done

next stop for dip = 79k
little bit of luck I will have 2.0 btc way faster than I thought I would.
I'm surprised that you don't have much more than 2 BTC, considering that you've been mining and investing in BTC for a long time. I'm not a big player, but from 2014 to today I managed to accumulate much more than that amount through various means and I haven't stopped even today.

In any case, good luck on your way to your goal Wink

Yeah..  Historically in bitcoin there has been certain value that has tended to come from persistently and consistently buying and not selling and/or trading along the way.. so if the emphasis had been on buy and hold your cornz, then the amounts of bitcoin could have had really ended up adding up to quite large amounts, even without putting large amounts of investment into bitcoin..  

Surely part of the value came from emphasizing ongoing buying and holding and not selling - even though there wouldn't really be anything wrong with spend and replace.

We can look at some DCA websites and see that even a person who had been investing $10 per week from the beginning of 2015, by now he would have had invested right close to $6k, and at the same time, he would have had accumulated more than 3.5 BTC.. and sure a lot of that accumulation would have had ended up coming from the accumulation done in 2015 and even 2016.

So our investment amounts tended to need to have to go up at various points when BTC prices end up stair-casing upwardly, so even now days, a person can look back fondly at the guys who had accumulated most if not all of their bitcoin between 2018 and 2020, too... and yeah plug the dates and numbers into a DCA BTC website to get  some ideas.  

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/dollar-cost-averaging-calculator

Of course, Phil serves as an example in which the could have, would have, should have did not necessarily play out so greatly, so we cannot necessarily presume any guys bitcoin stash merely based on what would have had been reasonably easy to have had accomplished.... and so into the future, we are likely going to continue to hear about examples of guys who were in bitcoin yet the seem to have failed/refused to employ seemingly minimal actions to stay focused on continuous and ongoing bitcoin accumulation and/or holding until they are able to reach a sufficiently large enough bitcoin stash from their perception of their bitcoin accumulation target and/or how they might want to end up using their bitcoin at some later points down the road.

Perhaps there can also be questions, whether referring to Phil or other similarly situated folks, in regards to which normies might be able to learn from the past and/or the mistakes that they might have had made in the past.  

What is your opinion? Is it likely to go down further? Or will it recover very soon?
Yes. It will go down or recover, as always. But what's in it for you? Merit?
From my perspective:

We are going to see a lot of plateu between 70 and 90K for a long time. Sadly I do think the bull market may be over for now.

With our current performance, it is becoming harder to conclude that we have not fallen out of the bull market.  Momentum can be a bit of a bitch, and surely there are desires to purge some more of the weak hands from their coins and surely take advantage of momentum while it still exists.. .so yeah, getting into some rough territories now (as I type) with our just having had touched upon $77,061 within the last few minutes as I was drafting this post (yep, and as Biodom suggested, there could be a bit of a short term liquidity event that is like March 2020.. which opportunistically would be better to target at bitcoin on the weekend, even though these days it is much easier to move value around as compared with targeted weekend attacks that we were experiencing between 2014 and even entering into 2017).

Wow, a crashola to 78.6K.
This is actually quiet interesting. If you relate it to a popular stock on one of the major markets that reported terrible quarterly results or say it failed to report on time due to its accountant's refusing to approve the report - the stock is not going to sell off like what we're seeing here with Bitcoin.

Welcome to dee cornz, to the extent that you might have access to actually trading the actual thing in regards to your paper representation on the weekends or after normal business hours when your fucktwat trusted holders of coins are safeguarding the supposed back up of the coins that they own that are supposedly representative of your claims over them.

This to me means Bitcoin, and all cryptocurrencies for that matter, is very fragile as far as a trusted asset or a good investment. Otherwise it wouldn't sell off to the extent it has.

Of course, the market helps to decide the extent to which bitcoin is considered a risk off or a risk on asset, and of course, there is not necessarily agreement in regards to what purpose bitcoin serves, and so when there is an ongoing battle in regards to what role bitcoin plays, there are surely going to be folks on the side of discrediting bitcoin who are going to want to push it lower and as low as they can for as long as they can, whether we might have a liquidity event going on or not.

I'm guessing a lot of people are going to sell off and never look back - marking it up to a really bad decision to think it was a good bet in the first place...  

Perhaps newbies like you are considering selling.  There are also guys who buy during times like this.. so you are free to make your choice, whether you own the real bitcoin or merely exposure to the bitcoin price as you claim to own such a thing that exposes you to the spot price in some kind of a way that allows you to get in and out of your holdings within acceptable hours of operation of your trusted 3-rd parties.

Edited: Woaza!!!!!  That escalated (or deescalated) quickly, I quickly crash to $75,555 within a minute of my clicking "send"
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January 31, 2026, 06:54:15 PM

My Lord!!!!!!
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January 31, 2026, 07:00:20 PM

My Lord!!!!!!


UGLY
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January 31, 2026, 07:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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January 31, 2026, 07:01:26 PM

@JJG...that first EDITED should go in the paragraph below as it relates to @Ninja.
just saying...or my OCD is saying  Grin
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January 31, 2026, 07:05:38 PM

This is quite cool, i consider buying some more, way earlier than i have thought.
Wohooo!
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January 31, 2026, 07:05:45 PM

Just saw this, which is the exact opposite of what was originally thought about Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair:


New Fed Chair Framed Pro-Bitcoin: Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, has made comments framed as pro-Bitcoin, viewing it as a useful policy indicator. This could be bullish for BTC.

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January 31, 2026, 07:09:55 PM


When you just look at the kind of human garbage that rules the world, you wonder how it is possible for hundreds of millions of people to go to the polls and vote for such monsters? I sincerely hope (although I doubt it) that after all this, Americans will wake up and finally understand who the people they elected to rule the country are.


#happytimes

When humanity is good at something, then it's....
*drum rolls*

looking away

"We" tend to look away from things we don't like. That's why things we don't like are getting only poorly addressed.
And yeah, (lack of) courage plays a role in there too.

EDIT: typo

Atleast the entire world knows now that Bill Gates got an std (sexually transmitted infections) from Russian hookers during his Epstein adventures and gave it to his wife.  Tongue

 So thatțs why Melinda finally left him after putting up with his bullshit for years.  She should have taken all of his money.
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January 31, 2026, 07:13:12 PM

What is your opinion? Is it likely to go down further? Or will it recover very soon?
Yes. It will go down or recover, as always. But what's in it for you? Merit?
I only post here to know the current market situation, sentiment and everyone's different opinions, but from your style of speaking, it seems that all posts are for merit, and that is why everyone who posts here (low rank), their only intention is to gain merit, especially if they do not have Bitcoin, then they have no connection with Bitcoin and also they are not allowed to know the market situation. All in all, I want to say that if someone does not agree with my opinion and also if someone does not like my post, that is absolutely normal and I welcome that. But please avoid questioning the motive without any basis, and just avoid me if necessary.

Ninja~  Wink

It takes time for guys on the forum to get to know you and perhaps to feel comfortable that you might be a human rather than a bot or even a spammer, scammer or some other kind of current undesirable - such as part of a merit farming group, so already established members are going to tend to be skeptical of newbies... and there have been a lot of issues with bots and/or low quality posts that can be more difficult to detect if the member is using AI to generate garbage posts or if they are drafting the ideas themselves (to the extent that they might be posting substantively meaningful content, so it can take a while to figure out which newbie forum members are even human or not.. not that members are going to necessarily know which members have been tagged as a shitposter or not.


Thank you very much, I understand why new members on the forum might have such doubts, and maybe that's why he said these things to me, anyway I'm sorry for what I said.

To be clear, I've been familiar with cryptocurrency for about three years+ ago, I tried trading in the beginning, and I've been observing the crypto market for a long time ago, I'm just relatively new to the forum, but that doesn't mean I have no idea about crypto, bitcoin, or anything like that.

I'm not very active on the forum, maybe I'll be active now, while watching various news about crypto and bitcoin (Because Bitcoin is very volatile right now), I came across the news that I thought might be shared here, so I posted it without any intention, Just to know everyone's opinion on this topic. but there I was told in a non-disclosure manner that I was coming here for qualifications and that I had nothing to do with the fall/volatility of bitcoin, I found the matter a bit disappointing, so I asked him to ignore me, I apologize for that, please forgive me @LoyceV.

Ninja~  Smiley



Bitcoin in $77K
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January 31, 2026, 07:15:55 PM

I would be cautious with ANY prediction here.
The markets are unstable and this includes more than just bitcoin.
Fast declines are usually (or at least unpredictably) not bearish...witness March 2020.
IMHO: bitcoin started the decline, now gold and silver followed...next, probably stocks in the next 0-3 mo.
You went from saying we were going to the moon, to saying a 40% drop wasn’t big enough of a correction to justify the four year cycle, and are now saying that fast market declines aren’t bearish… At what price do the words, “OgNasty was right” get typed by your fingers?

OgNasty is the greatest!!!!!!

and, if we are not completely convinced of that idea, OgNasty will take some of his precious time in order to let us know.


I would be cautious with ANY prediction here.
The markets are unstable and this includes more than just bitcoin.
Fast declines are usually (or at least unpredictably) not bearish...witness March 2020.
IMHO: bitcoin started the decline, now gold and silver followed...next, probably stocks in the next 0-3 mo.
You went from saying we were going to the moon, to saying a 40% drop wasn’t big enough of a correction to justify the four year cycle, and are now saying that fast market declines aren’t bearish… At what price do the words, “OgNasty was right” get typed by your fingers?
I don't recall saying that we are going to the moon.
From my point of view it all already happened one way or another, we are just looking at it as it unfolds in a space-time crystal during our lifetimes.

Additionally, what I am saying is that in a long run, I would make more money, relatively, if I don't constantly buy and sell.
Most people are not some trading geniuses...just look at that etfinvestor...he is about to do a "mindtrust".
That conviction of "traders make pennies" at this point is unshakeable in my mind.

And, of course, this has NOTHING to do with non-existent (currently) four-year cycles and more to do with AI, $, geopolitical tensions, etc, etc.

There frequently tends to be some unexplainable angle when several matters are attempting to resolve at once (including some kind of a liquidity event like March 2020), if that might be part of the explanation - yet hard to identify while we are in the midst of it.

It's been reported that Bitcoin ETFs have halted new capital Intake.
Bitcoin ETFs halted new capital intake, showing poor performance. They have experienced steady daily outflows for four consecutive days.

Exactamente!!!!!  -  the kinds of games that BIGGER players deploy from time to time.

The trend reflects weakening investor appetite amid broader crypto‑market volatility and declining Bitcoin prices.

Boo-hoo. They make shit up and exaggerate to attempt to exacerbate any existing conditions and/or momentum... to help guys to cut their gooses looses.

Fun, right?

Would you like to show a snapshot of the "profits" of your spot BTC ETF right now?

hahahahaha

Over $500M has been wiped our; Bitcoin funds saw a $509.7 million reduction in assets during this period, with BlackRock’s ETF responsible for a large share of the withdrawals.

And the BTC ETF buyers were supposed to be "long term" and "sticky".. yet perhaps not as "long term" and "sticky" as we may have presumed them to be?  except the insiders who are fucking around with these matters, who are going to be able to buy the bottom rather than ongoingly selling on the way down and not buying back in.
 
There is broader market weakness as the outflows coincide with a wider crypto downturn, where Bitcoin has fallen sharply and overall crypto investment products have seen nearly $1 billion in outflows in a single day.

Who would-a-thunk?

Bitcoin ETFs do what the investors want.
Investors buy the ticket, then ETFs buy more actual bitcoin (allegedly).
Investors sell the ticket, then ETFs sell the underlying bitcoin.
It's not a complicated math.

The bitcoin versus Bitcoin ETF share matters do not need to be reconciled right away.. so we are not going to put it past the custodians (who are already known for their ongoing sliminess and plausible deniability of their sliminess) to take advantage of the ways that bitcoin versus bitcoin ETF shares are reconciled.

Oh yeah, I forgot, we should trust those slimy twats.

..and yes, at some point the leveraged mess of a financial system would have a margin call.
but bitcoin "moth" keeps having these margin calls all the time, therefore, i don't think that bitcoin would be deeply threatened even if it drops (or surges) in price.

Some guys are already accustomed to large moves in bitcoin's price direction, even BTC price moves that go beyond expectations and stay there for periods that are longer than expected.  It is not easy, even when there is a considerable amount of financial and/or mental preparation for either BTC price direction (and/or both price directions).

I got me 78.5k dip

ever closer to 2.0 btc

My BTC buys are every $3k dip, yet once the BTC price goes to $74k (if it does) then they become every $2,500, and then if the BTC price drops to $69k, the BTC buys become every $2k drop...  let's hope we do not go there.. even though surely with our current local low of $75,555 from less than an hour ago (as I type this), we are getting closer to our April 2025 low in the mid-$74ks.... which was probably a price that many of us were not wanting to see - except the BTC accumulators should be loving such low BTC prices - to the extent that they haven't forgotten that they were in the BTC accumulation phase of their bitcoin journey.. some guys forget where they are at, especially newbies.
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January 31, 2026, 07:18:45 PM

Yep.  The odds are not looking good, at the moment for the BTC price to go to or above $126,272 prior to the April 1 deadline.

The price will eventually recover but I think not before April 1, 2026. Gambling about Bitcoin future price is always uncertain.
 
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January 31, 2026, 07:22:29 PM

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Bitcoin position is about to turn negative. Shows you how easy it is to destroy years of successful stacking by ignoring the four year Bitcoin cycle and buying the top.

If this drop in price for Bitcoin continues… Next his preferred offerings will drop below NAV and he will start burning through his cash pile with no way to replace it. If that cash pile runs out before Bitcoin’s price recovers, lawsuits will roll in and judges will force selling to pay investor claims. Strategy will go bankrupt, take Bitcoin down below $40K, and when the dust settles we can talk about 2029.

Will the S&P step up and save MSTR with an inclusion, or is everyone waiting for Strategy to fail before real corporate adoption of Bitcoin begins?
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January 31, 2026, 07:33:53 PM
Merited by OgNasty (1)

Strategy has a $2.1 bil cushion, so they can pay dividends for about 2.5 years.
I agree that MSTR was overall a stupid affair, though, in retrospect.

I am much down on MSTR stock, but i bought a minuscule amount, thankfully.
He should have not leverage-bought bitcoin with all those converts and preferreds as WS loves to dismantle leverage players.
That said, MSTR already cycled down one in 2021-2022, so it might survive.

At some point I had a bit of STRC, but when it went down 7% while it was supposed to be an equivalent of a "money market fund', I sold on an upward bounce (even made a small %)

EDIT: MSTR could do a -20% on monday. I kind of expect a MSTR trip to maybe 90-95, optimistically. The "funny" thing is that MSTZ (X2 negative MSTR) is still negative in comparison to what it was when MSTR was $180 in 2024. Conclusion: all these derivative plays never work, but it (MSTZ) would probably have a nice bounce on Monday.
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January 31, 2026, 07:44:56 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Just saw this, which is the exact opposite of what was originally thought about Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair:


New Fed Chair Framed Pro-Bitcoin: Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, has made comments framed as pro-Bitcoin, viewing it as a useful policy indicator. This could be bullish for BTC.
It is only really bullish if he becomes the Fed Chair and does something considerably, otherwise it is just speculative.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Bitcoin position is about to turn negative. Shows you how easy it is to destroy years of successful stacking by ignoring the four year Bitcoin cycle and buying the top.

If this drop in price for Bitcoin continues… Next his preferred offerings will drop below NAV and he will start burning through his cash pile with no way to replace it. If that cash pile runs out before Bitcoin’s price recovers, lawsuits will roll in and judges will force selling to pay investor claims. Strategy will go bankrupt, take Bitcoin down below $40K, and when the dust settles we can talk about 2029.

Will the S&P step up and save MSTR with an inclusion, or is everyone waiting for Strategy to fail before real corporate adoption of Bitcoin begins?
You should stop spreading FUD, being an OG here does not justify it. Spreading doomsday stuff only because you sold, terrible human behavior..
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January 31, 2026, 07:47:52 PM

Strategy has a $2.1 bil cushion, so they can pay dividends for about 2.5 years.

That is what they say… I suspect their costs are going to increase considerably and depending how bad things get for them, lawsuits could start piling up and draining that 2 billion quickly. The guy was telling people to sell their kidneys and buy the top while he was dumping shares as fast as he could. It is hard to imagine that none of his millions of shareholders are litigious and looking to blame someone else for their losses.


You should stop spreading FUD, being an OG here does not justify it. Spreading doomsday stuff only because you sold, terrible human behavior..

This is a price speculation thread. Grow up. Ignored.
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January 31, 2026, 07:51:15 PM

You should stop spreading FUD, being an OG here does not justify it. Spreading doomsday stuff only because you sold, terrible human behavior..
This is a price speculation thread. Grow up.
Spreading lies that suit your positions is dishonest. You were wrong about Strategy and the MSCI index, and now again you came back to spread more FUD. Grow up.
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