I was giving you some frameworks in terms of how I think about 2015 and why what you are saying does not seem to match - even though sure maybe you could attempt to clarify what portion of the picture we find ourselves.
And, what is the relation of bitcoin to the stock market today as compared with the relation of bitcoin and the stock market in 2015?
In other words, we started 2015 with bitcoin at a bottom (largely in the $250 prices for the whole year), and it was not until October 2015 until the recovery became meaningful where there was a break up to $500-ish within the first few days of November, and then a correction between November 2015 and late May 2016 that largely caused a consolidation right around the $420-ish arena... and even the break out at the end of May 2016, such break out did not even last until getting to the end of 2016.
Your further clarification is not helping. Even if you might be suggesting the timelines might be different, it is unclear how you consider 2015 as some kind of a representative period compared with where we are at now.
I see similarity with a large plunge at the end of a correction...exactly this happened in Jan 2015.
I compare the correction from October to correction in 2014 and now, a final plunge (a la Jan 2015).
After that there was a flat until Sept (or October?)
It's just an opinion...it could be something else entirely.
It all makes no difference to me, so my opinions (except hodling) are loosely held.
Just thinking aloud in Phil's style.
Thinking aloud Phil style has been quite a phenomena over the years.
I still consider the frameworks (and the set ups) to be way different which seems quite a bit of difficulty to get flat (let's say between $72k and $85k for an extended period of time, even if the period of time might be anywhere between 6 to 10 months. It seems like a long shot call, but of course, we know that quite a few things could end up happening in bitcoin, even seemingly long shot scenarios.
As you likely realize with me is that I tend to prefer to criticize scenarios set forth by other guys rather than coming up with my own, even while at the same time, its starting to seem increasingly difficult for me to win my bet with LFC because recoveries don't tend to go straight up, especially when there is another ATH breaching that would be potentially in any requirement for the BTC price even to recover around 65% from our current $77k-ish prices.
Also we cannot really discount the so many seemingly crazy-ass things happening in the macro space, even if there could be some potential ways to re-inspire confidence, in the event that such a re-inspiring confidence were potentially be any kind of an actual goal of any of the lunatics who are currently running the asylum - such as dogs and cats again living in harmony.
In all likelihood, we would bottom earlier than the stock market....and I expect gold/silver to bottom in 20 years from the peak, but not clear when the peak would be (maybe it already happened).
Smart large investment firms (like GS) would probably start shorting gold in large amounts pretty soon.
Afterall, they can make probably about $22 tril IF gold would retreat back to, say, $1780 over 20 years (similarly to how gold went from 800 to 250 between 1980 and 2000).
Just my 2c
And somehow your description of supposed gold and/or silver dynamics relates to bitcoin?
Everything is connected.
Capital is fluid, it goes from one place to another, hence one bucket has an influence on another bucket...not immediately, of course and not via direct correlation.
RE affected investment companies and banks in 2008, then it affected stocks.
Same thing here.
In 2000, biotech collapsed first, then internet stocks, then stock market.
In 2025-2026, bitcoin declined first, then gold/silver (in the process), then it would be stocks and, maybe RE (albeit RE is already slowly declining at least in some parts of the country). The only question is the extent and with high P/E (schiller's CAPE) for the stock market, the decline could be significant, but it would be fought tooth and nail because of the elections in 2026.
I suppose through the years more data has played out in order to be able to assess bitcoin's correlations to various macro-happenings, yet it also seems to me that historically, you have gotten ur lil selfie into a lot of trouble in terms of your own seemingly bitcoin whimpiness based on your historical attempts to look at such supposed macro-connections, which had included part of your own errors that involved failure/refusal to adequately account for bitcoin's exponential s-curve adoption component.
Sure, I understand that bitcoin has been ongoingly under attack by status quo rich (including governments, financial institutions and status quo rich individuals), so it is not like we can completely remove bitcoin from those happenings - and surely it also can be a wee bit difficult for dee cornz to be making any stair-step UPpities while so many keeping it down tools are ongoingly deployed... .. so we still have to ongoingly account for some of bitcoin's unique attributes that likely continue to have difficulties in harnessing them.. and yeah, I understand that there are likely infiltration in regards to all of the
7 Trace Mayer outlined network effects and also attacks on nodes, developers and miners.
So I am not even proclaiming that some stairstepping breakout has to happen, but it also seems that we cannot fail/refuse to recognize that such dynamics can still end up happening in bitcoin - even if it ONLY ends up resulting in a temporary UPpity bounce rather than a breaking back above the current ATH.. in the sentiment of the 2019 UPpity break out between $4,200 and $13,880 - even though such current break out (UPpity) might ONLY end up being able to deliver 25% to 40% of UPpity rather than 3.5x.
Part of my ongoing criticism of you relates to how smart that you are trying to act in your various spins of what you are supposedly doing, yet part of your underlying likely loss comes from your failure to stack and some of your earlier sales in which you were not able to get back your stack (such as 2017) yet you want to act like you are smarter than everyone else.. and a bit of humility would likely be a good thing - but you would rather brag and compete in regards to details that we could not confirm anyhow.
He was spreading FUD recently about Strategy and the MSCI indices and he ended up being wrong. The guy actually tries to act as if he was smarter than Blackrock.
Big narcissist vibes.
Yep.. It is ongoing, and he (OgNasty) is very selective in terms of his spins and even his revisionist histories that end up describing him as being correct and everyone else being wrong. We have so many of those examples - even including his having had gone on and on and on about the distribution of MTGOX coins were going to drive down the BTC price, so then when he supposedly gets his coins from MTGOX in the $50ks, he sells them at the same time to buy a Cybertruck.. which was pretty much the same time that Germany was selling their coins.. and yeah BTC prices lingered in the $50ks for quite a bit of time around then, yet really would not have had justified any major selling with intentions to buy back when maybe guys might have been able to at most get some coins in the $48ks, if they had gotten lucky to time the bottom. Retroactively he is claiming that he sold his MTGOX coins in the $70ks. .which is just bullshit spin.
Another thing regarding the recent dump, he supposedly sold his coins in the $114k-ish territories, yet retroactively he is proclaiming that he sold them much higher, to the extent that he sold any and to the extent that it even matters in the whole scheme of things.
There is nothing wrong with speculating about BTC price moves and even rejoicing in various trades that were profitable along the way, even though I surely am not much of a fan about trading - and I am probably less of a fan about supposed trades that are largely presented in order to proclaim that a person is smarter than everyone else and/or the talking the book angle that tends to be annoying - including that if we get into attempts at honest debates regarding investing versus trading, it tends to be quite difficult for trading to beat investing in bitcoin absent mostly luck - and even difficulties to have practices that are replicable. For guys who are still accumulating bitcoin, it seems silly to engage in anything other than ongoing buying since as soon as you sell, then you mess up your momentum and you are no longer ongoing buying and building your bitcoin stack, but instead putting yourself into a practice of waiting.. which I would imagine also makes it harder to beat a practice that is ongoingly buying bitcoin.. and even my own wondering why there would even be a need to outperform investing into bitcoin.
Even if we go back 10 years to January 2016 to present, and we imagine a guy investing $200 per week into bitcoin (yeah that is a fairly big budget, but OgNasty is a BIG baller, no?).. .. And, so yeah, he would have had invested $105k over those 10 years, and he would have had accumulated 30.52 BTC. I have trouble imagining how there are needs to get better performance than that, including I have difficulties imagining how guys who put themselves into trading practices, rather than ongoing buying are going to be able to replicably outperform such already great performance...and such a guy would have in the ballpark of a $3,500 cost per BTC. That seems way better than taking chances and putting such accumulatoin levels at risk.
I know that there are some guys who try to slow down their BTC buys when the BTC price is going up rapidly and they try to increase their buys during dip periods, and it is hard to object to those kinds of attempts to tweak as long as they are mostly continuing to buy BTC and not overly waiting for down prices that might not end up happening.
And, of course, in the end each guy is responsible for his own performance - which surely it seems a bit unnecessary to be seeking out to compete with guys on the internet including that a lot of times we are not going to be ready and/or willing to share too many details of our OpSec, even though we may well still engage in bets (whether friendly or not).. .who doesn't want to try to win a bet or to make others put their money where their mouth is, even though sometimes the bet might not end up working out as folks had anticipated. Ever since the BTC price went below $100k.. I have been much less willing to say: "you want to bet on that?".. so yeah ... there can be ways to resolve differences of opinion (and perspectives), even on the interwebs.
Even with OgNasty, I had offered to bet him on several occasions, and he seems to ignore those kinds of interactions, and surely sometimes there can be difficulties to get guys to stand behind their claims in ways in which a bet could actually be worked out... and sure after the fact, sometimes we will see how the bet might have had played out, yet such bet does not really count for much if the details of the bet had not been worked out in such a way that it is bettable in the sense that both of the parties sufficiently believe that they are going to win the bet.
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