Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

silver drops to 81

gold drops to just a few bucks.



hmm stocks in a bit.

looks like a very bloody week.

[goldkingcoiner]

silver and gold open soon about nine minutes.

tick tock tick tock

can’t stand the suspense

holy moly

Gold seems to keep falling. The RSI shows it is painfully overbought.

[aesma]

Metals moving like BTC ah ah !

[Biodom]

However, after reading Dario Amodei's opus...I am not sure what future is ahead for us.

What is this that spooked you so much? Does someone have a link I must have missed it.

https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology

I VERY long essay, indeed.
His surname literally means 'the one who g-d loves'...no comment.

Thank you for the link, I waited to reply before I read it. Something like this would be interesting to discuss with more people. I enjoyed it, at times it was balanced but at other times it seems to me like crypto bros that are shilling their own shitcoin. Of course he would say that powerful AI is very close, his financial future depends on it. What the hell else is he supposed to say? Powerful AI is 50 years away, don't invest in this company it will fail?  

As I wrote in Machines of Loving Grace, powerful AI could be as little as 1–2 years away, although it could also be considerably further out.

Extremely optimistic with probability that is almost 0, so why mention it at all like this? My most recent experience with ChatGPT and the most expensive Claude which is $100/month, the productivity gains are crazy but these machines understand nothing at all. Sometimes they make some basic errors that they have been making since the time they were first released to the public. This means they can do a lot more now, but they have not really improved real cognition at all as long as very basic errors can be made. They are doing better on test metrics and understand prompts better, but that is not real cognition. How many intelligent adults can occasionally make the childhood error that 2 plus 2 is equals 3? Still it is a great and very long article with insightful points that touch many dimensions of this issue. I wonder if he used their own AI to write it?  

We should look to the history of our country here: even in the Gilded Age, industrialists such as Rockefeller and Carnegie felt a strong obligation to society at large, a feeling that society had contributed enormously to their success and they needed to give back. That spirit seems to be increasingly missing today, and I think it is a large part of the way out of this economic dilemma. Those who are at the forefront of AI’s economic boom should be willing to give away both their wealth and their power.

This is so true, the concentration of wealth is extreme and if they giver away some it is often for abusive purposes like gaining power. My conclusion is that turbulent times are ahead and these are all good points, but we are not nearly there. Like many other technologies like radical battery innovation and fusion, it is better to be cautious on predictions of when. Once more, thank you for the link otherwise I would have not known about this.

I find the latter essay a bit more expansive (sure), but also a bit more boring.
Market is literally throws money at them, so it is hard not to become somewhat cocky.

My conclusion overall is that all these social networks and AI vastly increased an amount of "noise" one is exposed to, maybe to our detriment.
Regarding timing...I just don't know enough to even imagine an answer.
Apparently, he claims that AI already writes code very well and some programmers are thinking that they are already "behind".
Is it everything? Of course, not or at least not yet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Yep.. It is ongoing, and he (OgNasty) is very selective in terms of his spins and even his revisionist histories that end up describing him as being correct and everyone else being wrong.  We have so many of those examples  - even including his having had gone on and on and on about the distribution of MTGOX coins were going to drive down the BTC price, so then when he supposedly gets his coins from MTGOX in the $50ks, he sells them at the same time to buy a Cybertruck.. which was pretty much the same time that Germany was selling their coins.. and yeah BTC prices lingered in the $50ks for quite a bit of time around then, yet really would not have had justified any major selling with intentions to buy back when maybe guys might have been able to at most get some coins in the $48ks, if they had gotten lucky to time the bottom.  Retroactively he is claiming that he sold his MTGOX coins in the $70ks. .which is just bullshit spin.

Even with OgNasty, I had offered to bet him on several occasions, and he seems to ignore those kinds of interactions, and surely sometimes there can be difficulties to get guys to stand behind their claims in ways in which a bet could actually be worked out... and sure after the fact, sometimes we will see how the bet might have had played out, yet such bet does not really count for much if the details of the bet had not been worked out in such a way that it is bettable in the sense that both of the parties sufficiently believe that they are going to win the bet.

He ignores them because he would not have the ability to rewrite the story as he tends to do so, as you have written. That would be my conclusion why he dodges them. It is a bit sad that someone feels the need to lie so much to put himself on top in an obscure place with mostly random people online. Also it is very strange to start writing negative stuff only because you sold. If I sold at the peak some or even a large portion, why would I not want it to continue going up? My remaining stash benefits too, everyone benefits.. unless I oversold. I wish Bitcoin only good news and outcomes even when I sell.  

I find the latter essay a bit more expansive (sure), but also a bit more boring.
Market is literally throws money at them, so it is hard not to become somewhat cocky.

My conclusion overall is that all these social networks and AI vastly increased an amount of "noise" one is exposed to, maybe to our detriment.
Regarding timing...I just don't know enough to even imagine an answer.
Apparently, he claims that AI already writes code very well and some programmers are thinking that they are already "behind".
Is it everything? Of course, not or at least not yet.

I have used it for writing code, and the claims are way overblown. On its own, it can write something very small. At medium or large sized stuff it will create something that has countless errors and design flaws. What the real benefit here is that if you have an extremely skilled engineer, he can quickly write things in new languages, review faster and build faster. If you are excellent at finding bugs, then it can produce something great. I recently wrote something in TypeScript with AI and never touched that before in my life. There were many errors which I identified and corrected with AI, but other than that all the work is from the AI. It works flawlessly after all the bugs were removed. However, someone who does not have these skills and tries to do vibe coding or whatever they call it will produce very dangerous and broken stuff. So this boosts the productivity of skilled engineers by a lot, but for those that are average this will not do much or even make the situation worse as they will not be able to identify issues that well.

Imagine where code is sensitive and embedded. Airplanes, medical devices and stuff, I would not trust AI at all. I will review yearly as I work with it, but it is not even at 10% of reaching that safety based on my experience so far..

[Biodom]

Yep.. It is ongoing, and he (OgNasty) is very selective in terms of his spins and even his revisionist histories that end up describing him as being correct and everyone else being wrong.  We have so many of those examples  - even including his having had gone on and on and on about the distribution of MTGOX coins were going to drive down the BTC price, so then when he supposedly gets his coins from MTGOX in the $50ks, he sells them at the same time to buy a Cybertruck.. which was pretty much the same time that Germany was selling their coins.. and yeah BTC prices lingered in the $50ks for quite a bit of time around then, yet really would not have had justified any major selling with intentions to buy back when maybe guys might have been able to at most get some coins in the $48ks, if they had gotten lucky to time the bottom.  Retroactively he is claiming that he sold his MTGOX coins in the $70ks. .which is just bullshit spin.

Even with OgNasty, I had offered to bet him on several occasions, and he seems to ignore those kinds of interactions, and surely sometimes there can be difficulties to get guys to stand behind their claims in ways in which a bet could actually be worked out... and sure after the fact, sometimes we will see how the bet might have had played out, yet such bet does not really count for much if the details of the bet had not been worked out in such a way that it is bettable in the sense that both of the parties sufficiently believe that they are going to win the bet.

He ignores them because he would not have the ability to rewrite the story as he tends to do so, as you have written. That would be my conclusion why he dodges them. It is a bit sad that someone feels the need to lie so much to put himself on top in an obscure place with mostly random people online. Also it is very strange to start writing negative stuff only because you sold. If I sold at the peak some or even a large portion, why would I not want it to continue going up? My remaining stash benefits too, everyone benefits.. unless I oversold. I wish Bitcoin only good news and outcomes even when I sell.  

I find the latter essay a bit more expansive (sure), but also a bit more boring.
Market is literally throws money at them, so it is hard not to become somewhat cocky.

My conclusion overall is that all these social networks and AI vastly increased an amount of "noise" one is exposed to, maybe to our detriment.
Regarding timing...I just don't know enough to even imagine an answer.
Apparently, he claims that AI already writes code very well and some programmers are thinking that they are already "behind".
Is it everything? Of course, not or at least not yet.

I have used it for writing code, and the claims are way overblown. On its own, it can write something very small. At medium or large sized stuff it will create something that has countless errors and design flaws. What the real benefit here is that if you have an extremely skilled engineer, he can quickly write things in new languages, review faster and build faster. If you are excellent at finding bugs, then it can produce something great. I recently wrote something in TypeScript with AI and never touched that before in my life. There were many errors which I identified and corrected with AI, but other than that all the work is from the AI. It works flawlessly after all the bugs were removed. However, someone who does not have these skills and tries to do vibe coding or whatever they call it will produce very dangerous and broken stuff. So this boosts the productivity of skilled engineers by a lot, but for those that are average this will not do much or even make the situation worse as they will not be able to identify issues that well.

Imagine where code is sensitive and embedded. Airplanes, medical devices and stuff, I would not trust AI at all. I will review yearly as I work with it, but it is not even at 10% of reaching that safety based on my experience so far..

Well, it is entirely possible that you, personally, are a very strong coder, but not everyone is.

Amodei claims the following:

in coding our models have proceeded from the level of “a mediocre coder” to “a strong coder” to “a very strong coder.”

Additionally, if their systems went in 2 years from "barely being able to complete a single line of code" to "writing all or almost all of the code for some people including engineers at Anthropic", then in another 2 years where would they be...OR are you assuming that the progress would crawl when approaching a certain inherent limit?
I guess this is possible as well.

[BitHodlers]

Well, it is entirely possible that you, personally, are a very strong coder, but not everyone is.

Amodei claims the following:

in coding our models have proceeded from the level of “a mediocre coder” to “a strong coder” to “a very strong coder.”

I would consider myself medium, not more than that and definitely not in the area of the example that I gave. But that is exactly the thing, I ventured into a new programming language and did things that I never did before very fast. It would have taken me 10 to 100 times the time to do the same without AI, that is the power of this right now! The boost in productivity is incredible, I don't even know what I could compare it to if anything. When I was really young I was learning some programming syntax from books, that was very slow..

Additionally, if their systems went in 2 years from "barely being able to complete a single line of code" to "writing all or almost all of the code for some people including engineers at Anthropic", then in another 2 years where would they be...OR are you assuming that the progress would crawl when approaching a certain inherent limit?
I guess this is possible as well.

I am assuming based on my experience, like I said even if it is continuing to be able to produce much better stuff it somehow still fails at the basics and sometimes gets stuck in loops like it did in the early days. Imagine a highly skilled mathematician doing differential equations of the highest complexity, and then he fails to solve 2+3. That seems to indicate that there is a big underlying problem which for stuff like this continues to become bigger, not smaller. Depending on the circumstances even a single off by 1 number could cause a catastrophic failure, it wouldn't be the first time this happened.

So yeah I believe this is extremely useful and it is going to grow in usefulness, but I highly doubt any claims that in a few years from now all code will be AI or even mostly AI. We call most other things that AI has made slop for a reason. Maybe Windows 11 was made by using a lot of AI, that would explain why it is so bad and slow.  



It seems I am a Full Member now, thanks WO!  How old must I be before I can also be abusive to JJG too?  

[ESG]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

     -so Mr. Buddy,

      The day started going up, if it ends up, the pain starts to improve...



...
   ..who lost 2 points at the beginning was the BCO, from 70 to 68, perhaps,..
      ... they talked, and decided that it would be better
     not to worsen their reputation for the next elections,
     and perhaps a momentary peace, and all this Middle East in the media,
     a simple means of causing concern in the minds of the population.

   -And meanwhile, the lords of the market ,
         pass from basket to basket,
    gathering their share of the eggs.
    that they certainly were not the ones who produced

i await  that 78 dont be the resistance of day...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

I am on a similar page with A. pompliano, it seems:

https://x.com/APompliano/status/2017963951456219310
https://x.com/APompliano/status/2017967413526933853

According to Truflation, inflation is less than 1%, currently (see link above)...and we are at 3.75-4% short term interest rates.
Oh, my!

[BitHodlers]

I am on a similar page with A. pompliano, it seems:

https://x.com/APompliano/status/2017963951456219310
https://x.com/APompliano/status/2017967413526933853

According to Truflation, inflation is less than 1%, currently (see link above)...and we are at 3.75-4% short term interest rates.
Oh, my!

True or some good hopium, either way I will take it.  I can't wait for Powell to be out, he is very partisan and biased. There will be many rate cuts before mid terms.

[vapourminer]

It seems I am a Full Member now, thanks WO!  How old must I be before I can also be abusive to JJG too? 

being abusive to JJG is what likely got you to Full Member.

[BTCETFInvestor]

silver drops to 81

gold drops to just a few bucks.


hmm stocks in a bit.

looks like a very bloody week.

Unfortunately, yes it does look bad.

I hope the allure of Bitcoin is not damaged too badly beyond repair with this 40% tanking from ATH, but I suspect a lot of people will unfortunately shy away from it, including countries and states. I think a lot of financial managers will pull back on recommending Bitcoin after this rout we've seen.

Who knows, maybe MSTR will buy a gazillion BTC at this depressed price range...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Karl_3000]

silver drops to 81

From $121 to $84 now.

Is this not volatile than bitcoin with what happened? I am not thinking a metal can be like this. I learn this today but just like bitcoin, they all have long term value. This should encourage people to know that bitcoin is a good asset. Commodities (like gold and silver) and stocks can also be volatile. We saw what happened to stock when Trump started trade war last year..

[BTCETFInvestor]

[JayJuanGee]

It seems I am a Full Member now, thanks WO!  How old must I be before I can also be abusive to JJG too?  

Technically, there is no minimum threshold.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

What movies do you guys recommend while waiting for the next ATH?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freaks_(1932_film)