Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TopT3ns]

^ someone bought some btc?

Yes bought some BTC at the deep price, Now just want to be sure Trump didn't make another deep.

[Toxic2040]

late night ai slop for something to gawk at...i mean speculate on

that is all


As of February 2, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $78,600–$80,000 USD, based on the latest market data from multiple aggregators. Predicting its exact price in mid-July 2026 (around July 15) is inherently speculative—crypto markets are influenced by factors like macroeconomic trends (e.g., interest rates, inflation), regulatory changes (e.g., U.S. policies under ongoing administrations), institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries), halvings (next in 2028, but lingering effects from 2024), and global events (e.g., geopolitical tensions or tech advancements). No model can guarantee accuracy, and past performance isn't indicative of future results.
That said, I've aggregated forecasts from reputable sources (analysts, algorithmic models, and market reports published in early 2026) to provide a balanced view. These draw from technical analysis (e.g., RSI, Bollinger Bands, power law models), historical cycles, and sentiment. Predictions for 2026 overall vary wildly due to differing assumptions—bullish ones cite continued ETF inflows and liquidity cycles, while bearish ones point to potential recessions or profit-taking after 2025 peaks. For mid-July specifically, where available, I've noted monthly breakdowns; otherwise, I've interpolated from yearly ranges.
Summary of Key Predictions for Mid-July 2026
Here's a table compiling mid-2026 forecasts from cross-referenced sources. I focused on mid-year estimates where possible, averaging or extrapolating when data is year-end focused. Ranges reflect min-max scenarios, with averages as central tendencies.

Source/Model                                                                                           Predicted Range(USD)                                                                                           Average/Target(USD)                                             Rationale/Bias
Changelly (Algorithmic)                                                                            $117,845 – $131,935                                                                                                  $121,756                            Based on historical price data; assumes moderate growth post-2025 highs.
Binance Consensus Rating                                                                        $125,263 – $164,226 (for July)                                                                                    $144,744                            Fixed interest rate model; optimistic on institutional adoption and halving tailwinds.
CoinCodex (AI Forecast)                                                                           $88,345 – $89,816                                                                                                      $89,085                             Neutral RSI-based; expects consolidation after volatility, with 14% six-month gain from current.
3Commas/TradingBeasts                                                                           $77,649 – $78,567                                                                                                      $78,108                            Technical analysis; projects a low amid potential pullback to $75k–$80k range.
CNBC Analyst Roundup (e.g., Carol Alexander, Youwei Yang)                        $75,000 – $225,000 (yearly, mid-year similar)                                                      $110,000 – $150,000                  High volatility expected; center of gravity at $110k, but upside to $225k if rate cuts and regs favor crypto.
Kraken Growth Model (5% Annual)                                                            $76,530 – $80,357 (interpolated)                                                                                  $78,443                            Conservative 5% growth assumption; sees steady climb but no parabolic moves.
Flitpay (Cycle-Based)                                                                               $122,800 – $178,200                                                                                                   $153,300                           Bullish on correction year; factors in slowing 2024 halving effects but positive adoption.
Axi/Institutional Cluster                                                                            $150,000 – $250,000 (yearly, mid similar)                                                                     $200,000                           Bullish consensus from funds like Fundstrat; driven by ETFs and liquidity.
X Community Sentiment (e.g., @jv_finance, @CredibleCrypto)                     $85,000 – $300,000                                                                                            $140,000 – $240,000                 Power law and Bollinger Bands; some see parabolic wave to $240k–$300k, others $71k–$349k range. 
Overall Aggregated Range                                                                         $75,000 – $225,000                                                                                            $120,000 – $150,000                  Median of all sources; wide variance reflects uncertainty—bulls bet on expansion, bears on recession.

Analysis and Opinion

Bull Case (High End: $150k+): If global liquidity increases (e.g., Fed rate cuts continue into 2026) and crypto regs stay friendly (e.g., no major crackdowns), Bitcoin could push toward $150k–$225k by mid-July. This aligns with post-halving patterns where bulls extend into year 2–3, plus ongoing ETF inflows (already $50B+ in 2025). Models like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart suggest $300k+ potential if sentiment flips ultra-bullish. X discussions echo this, with some calling for a "final parabolic wave."

Bear Case (Low End: <$100k): A slowdown in adoption, economic downturn (e.g., mirroring 2022's crash), or profit-taking after 2025 peaks could drag it to $75k–$90k. Analysts like Ben Cowen warn of drops to $74k or lower by summer 2026, citing cycle resets and stock market correlations. If we see a "historic gold crash" spillover, supports at $85k could break.

Most Likely Scenario: Around $120k–$150k. This is the consensus "center of gravity" from diversified sources, assuming moderate volatility (Bitcoin's 30-day RSI is neutral at ~30). 2026 might be a consolidation year post-2025 bull peak, but not a full bear market yet—think sideways with upside bias from alts and DeFi growth. Historically, mid-cycle prices average 1.5–2x the prior year's close; from current ~$79k, that fits ~$120k.

Remember, these are guesses—Bitcoin has surprised everyone before (e.g., 2021's $69k peak).

dyor

[JayJuanGee]

Well… I didn’t think we’d see Blockstream in the Epstein files but I have to admit that it checks out.
I don’t want to say much more on this, but the motivation for why Bitcoin’s throughput was sabotaged has become more clear. Maybe the core team wasn’t backstabbing liars who used a fake New York agreement to manipulate miners to get what they wanted. Maybe they were just compromised.
Don’t worry guys. The development team is decentralized and in nobody’s control.  

Not these stupid conspiracy theories again. Go and buy a shitcoin like BSV if you want more throughput. It is always those that contributed the least or nothing to Bitcoin that talk bad about those that contributed the most.  

Of course, OgNasty is bitter because he was on the wrong side of that difference of opinion about bitcoin and he likely would not even admit how much he was set back by betting against bitcoin and siding with various BIG blocker camps.. so too bad and so sad, and it would not be so exciting to make fun of OgNasty if he weren't otherwise a know it all cunt who can never be wrong, yet easy enough to point out some history in which he had become greatly bitter about his having had been wrong, played his cards wrong and still bitter over it.

OgNasty did mention to me in a private communication that his goals are real high, which perhaps it part of the problem...

Guys who started out in bitcoin around the time that OgNasty started could have had fairly easily gotten in the several hundred coins territories, even with little capital originally invested, and merely ONLY having to error on the side of holding rather than fucking around with trading or trading his bitcoin for Bcash.

I am largely saying that he could have had accumulated 100s of coins because he says that he has high goals. He laughed at me when I pointed out to him that many normies would be quite content with a passive income of $80k per year, and sure, if you want to double, triple or quadruple that, that does not seem to be unreasonable, especially since I am of  the opinion that currently an $80k per year income with 7% raises each year could be supported by currently having 13.7992 BTC or more, and so yeah, if an early guy were to have had been able to accumulate 138 BTC, then he could currently be in a position to sustainably support an $800k per year income with 7% per year increases... and I have difficulties wondering how that would not be enough.. but hey, some guys want more and more and more. Some guys seems to never be able of getting enough.  At least that is what some guys say.

Going back to 2011.  In mid-2011 there was a rapid shooting of BTC's price up from $1 to $32, yet most of 2011 and 2012 and even going into 2013 BTC prices spent a lot of that time between $4 and $15.. so even picking somewhere in the middle of that price range, OgNasty could have gotten 100 BTC for every $1k that he put into it - which was about 25x better prices than the doldrums of 2015 that were mostly stuck in the $250 prices.. and so in 2015, you would have ONLY gotten around 40 bitcoin for every $10k invested into it... still not a bad deal, but surely with the passage of time, the average prices tended to go up quite a bit, even during the dipping periods as compared with the  earlier periods..  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Toxic2040]

i dunno...



Ichimoku Cloud Analysis for Chart 2 (4H Bitfinex BTC/USD)
This 4-hour chart covers late January to early February 2026, zooming in on the recent dip. Similar setup with Ichimoku, RSI, and volume:

Tenkan-sen: Hovering at ~$79,100, recent cross below signals short-term bearishness.
Kijun-sen: At $80,500, acting as resistance; price rejection here fueled the drop.
Senkou Span A & B: Cloud was supportive but price sliced through the green area, now below a flattening brown cloud. Projection shows resistance ahead at ~$82k.
Chikou Span: Dipped below past price, confirming weakness—it's free-falling, no historical support.
Overall Signals:
Bearish TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun, with gap widening.
Cloud Exit: Downward breakout, typical for continuation sells.
Kumo Future: Thin cloud suggests choppiness, but bearish bias until price re-enters.
Support/Resistance: Support at $75k (prior low), resistance at Tenkan (~$79k) then cloud (~$80k+).

RSI: Around 30, oversold—possible short-term relief rally.
Volume: Heavy red bars on decline, light green on wicks—sellers dominate.
Outlook: Bearish on this timeframe; watch for $73k–$75k if no bounce. Upside needs cloud reclaim for bulls.


clearly this is tiger out to hunt or more colloquially kittehs looking for his next meal
4h







Ichimoku Cloud Analysis for Chart 1 (1D Bitstamp BTC/USD)
This daily chart shows Bitcoin's price action from mid-November 2025 to early February 2026, with a clear bearish breakdown in late January. The Ichimoku Cloud (parameters: 9, 26, 52) is overlaid, along with RSI (14) and volume. Here's a complete breakdown:

Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line, red line): At ~$82,485, acting as short-term resistance. Price crossed below it in late January, signaling weakening momentum.
Kijun-sen (Base Line, blue line): Around $84,360, now overhead resistance. The recent drop below this line confirms a bearish shift, as it's the "equilibrium" level.
Senkou Span A & B (Cloud): The cloud was bullish (green) through January but thinned and turned bearish (brown/reddish) as price exited below. Senkou A (~$82,485) and B (~$78,000) project a downward-sloping cloud ahead, indicating potential further resistance on bounces.
Chikou Span (Lagging Span, green line): Lagging below the price 26 periods back, reinforcing bearishness—it's in open space below past candles, suggesting no immediate support.
Overall Signals:
Bearish Kumo Breakout: Price broke below the cloud, a strong sell signal. This often precedes extended downtrends.
Tenkan/Kijun Crossover: Bearish cross occurred around $85k, with widening separation.
Cloud Twist: Upcoming twist (where A and B cross) around mid-February could signal volatility, but current downward slope favors bears.
Support/Resistance: Immediate support at Kijun (~$78k) or prior low (~$74k). Resistance at cloud base (~$82k).

RSI Context: At 35, nearing oversold—could hint at a bounce, but in strong downtrends, it can stay low.
Volume: Red spikes confirm selling pressure; watch for green volume on rebound.
Outlook: Strongly bearish short-term; potential for $70k–$75k if supports break. Bullish reversal would need price back above cloud.


obviously elephant kissed the duck   duh    frikkin ai    lets go!   dyor
D

#stronghands

[OgNasty]

Any trading experts need a new job? Fresh from the big news of a merger with SpaceX, xAI is now reportedly hiring crypto experts to teach AI models how to trade crypto. The machines will be coming for our coins soon…

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

...Chart Buddy posting new highs...

Chartbuddy posts bids and asks, not prices.

[Toxic2040]

...Chart Buddy posting new highs...

Chartbuddy posts bids and asks, not prices.

buddy dont haiku



bitcoin climbs back strong
seventy eight eight hundred glows
cloud test at eighty

rsi climbs to thirty-five
divergence calls for rebound
whales buy the shadows

etf ticks green now
fed whispers pause for relief
hash storms fade away

polymarket shifts bets
sixty percent sub eighty
upside whispers grow

tomorrows bold call
seventy eight to eighty one
target seventy nine five

HODL the fire, crew
vol's our wild ride bitch
to the moon, fuck bears

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

MSTR bought more Bitcoin today!

Not so sure how good that news is.

It is going to be very interesting watching Strategy attempt to avoid bankruptcy this bear market. Saylor just posted that his preferred offerings don’t even pay regular dividends. They are “return of capital” distributions. A true ‘you are the yield’ scenario. This means his shareholders won’t even be able to write off massive losses as their cost basis continues declining with each payout.

The things Strategy is doing to pump Bitcoin are so reckless, it is difficult to believe they will succeed.

This kind of shit is starting to sound like the Tether truthers all over again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Leahized]

@BullTheoryio

Bitcoin Weekly Analysis:

Is it going to $60k or $100k ?

Bitcoin is trading above the $75,000 level, which is a key weekly support level on the chart. This zone was retested recently, and how price behaves here will decide the next major move.

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has dropped below the 20W moving average and the 50W moving average.

From here, there are two clear scenarios.

SCENARIO 1

Bitcoin holds the April 2025 low and $75k becomes the bottom. For this scenario to play out, Bitcoin needs to hold the April 2025 lows and form a higher low.

What would that mean?

The long-term trend stays in place: higher highs and higher lows. The move down to $75k becomes a pullback, not a trend break.

Now connect it to moving averages: The 20-week MA moving below or pressing into the 50-week MA is a bearish signal, yes. But it does not automatically mean a bear market. It can also be a late signal after a heavy correction. So Bitcoin needs to stop making lower lows in this $75k area.

For the 4 year cycle to break, Bitcoin needs to reclaim and close above the 50W MA which is currently at $100,400. A clean weekly close above this area would signal that momentum has finally reset back in favor of bulls. Most importantly, it needs to hold above the April 2025 low and start building weekly closes that show buyers are stepping back in.

SCENARIO 2

Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low and downside targets open up. This scenario is simple: If Bitcoin breaks the April 2025 low, the structure changes.

At that point: The higher low structure fails. The $75k support no longer holds. If that happens, the $50k–$60k zone becomes the first downside area because it is a major psychological zone and a common reset range after a high-to-low correction.

WHAT DECIDES WHICH SCENARIO WINS?

1. Does Bitcoin hold $75,000 on weekly closes or not?

2. Does Bitcoin break the April 2025 low or not?

If $75k and the April 2025 low holds: Scenario 1 stays alive.

If $75k breaks and the April 2025 low breaks: Scenario 2 becomes the higher-probability path.


https://x.com/BullTheoryio
X

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

man you guys make it so complicated:

bitcoin go up? slice profit off, buy feed for birds, squirrels such. we all eat great. life is grand.

bitcoin goes sideways. well birds and squirrels do find their own food when needed. but i do try to help em out. life is still good for all.

bitcoin goes down. feed goes out for the birds and squirrels but some may wind up as soup. life is good me and the ones i didnt eat.


oh, and DCA always.

[Volgastallion]

MSTR bought more Bitcoin today!

Not so sure how good that news is.

It is

Yeah, just a bunch of dumbasses running a $40 Billion company!

Man, please tell me this is a joke and you edited that photo, is impossible that image can be real, i mean most of them seems like IA generated and what the hell is Joty Paparello?. Seems like a cartoon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Hmm, i don't think we're in clear waters yet.
There is lots of long liquidity in $74k and below.
Somebody wants to pick it up and the futures gap didn't always get filled.
Curious. I got my share of cheap corn yesterday, but still 80% of my buy volume is waiting on the sideline.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com