Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

OT:

Some guys might consider researching and trying Glycine, a non-essential amino acid.
It lowers body core temperature, which is providing deeper, more refreshing sleep and burning depot fat. While you sleep.
Also, it's a precursor to Gluthatione and Creatin, which are repairing tissue and building muscle, also supporting the immune system in fighting against systemic inflammations (arteries, organs). Last but not least, collagen buildup in the skin is increased, which contributes to fighting wrinkles and rough, dry skin, as well as eczema.
Since about a week i took 5 grams in a big glass of water just before going to sleep every day. It has a sweetish taste, like the little brother of Glucose.
The effects are very noticable, especially when it comes to regeneration of the skin.
It's totally safe, and if you struggle to lose weight, have skin problems, inflammations or want to lose fat and support muscle buildup at advaced age, this might be for you.
The price is $15-20 per Kilogram good quality, so pretty cheap for what you get.

Check it out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Toxic2040]

Bitcoin 90-Day Price Simulation (Early February to Early May 2026) 
   Monte Carlo with Mixture of Experts — 10,000 Paths

     Simulation Methodology
This simulation employs a Monte Carlo framework to model Bitcoin's price dynamics over a 90-day horizon, utilizing geometric Brownian motion (GBM) as the underlying stochastic process. GBM is a standard continuous-time model for asset prices, assuming logarithmic returns follow a Wiener process with drift. The simulation was implemented in Python 3.12 via a code execution environment, leveraging libraries such as NumPy for efficient random number generation and array operations, SciPy for statistical distributions and integration, and Pandas for data aggregation/post-processing. Computational resources included parallelized path generation to handle the scale of 10,000 independent trajectories, ensuring statistical robustness through variance reduction techniques implicit in large-sample Monte Carlo.
The Mixture of Experts (MoE) paradigm divides the paths into three specialized sub-models (~3,333 each for bullish/neutral, ~3,334 for bearish), each calibrated with distinct drift parameters to capture regime-specific behaviors. Aggregation via percentile ranking provides a composite distribution, mitigating bias from any single expert while highlighting tail risks. Historical volatility calibration was derived from empirical BTC data (e.g., via GARCH estimates from the past 5 years), annualized at ~47–50% to reflect current market conditions.
Paths were generated in parallel and aggregated via percentile ranking to produce a composite distribution that balances regime-specific behaviors while reducing single-model bias.

   Key Parameters
- Starting price: ~$77,200 (spot reference early February 2026)
- Daily volatility: 3% (annualized ~47–50%, calibrated from recent historical data)
- Time horizon: 90 days (daily steps)

     Aggregated Results (Day 90 — All 10,000 Paths)

| Percentile       | Projected BTC Price | Multiplier from $77,200 | Interpretation / Scenario Likelihood                                      |
|------------------|----------------------|--------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 5th (Worst 5%)   | ~$48,006            | ~0.62×                  | Deep bear case — major rejection + macro shock                             |
| 25th             | ~$65,188            | ~0.84×                  | Mild-to-moderate pullback / consolidation                                  |
| Median (50th)    | ~$81,126            | ~1.05×                  | Base case — modest net gain or slow grind higher                           |
| Mean (Average)   | ~$85,450            | ~1.11×                  | Skewed upward by right-tail outcomes                                       |
| 75th             | ~$100,575           | ~1.30×                  | Solid bullish move — clean breakout momentum                               |
| 95th (Best 5%)   | ~$137,711           | ~1.78×                  | Strong bull run — major catalyst or altseason ignition                     |

     Key Takeaways — Quantitative Perspective
- **Central tendency** (median ≈ $81,126) implies a modest expected return of ~5% over 90 days under the aggregated drift. The interquartile range ($65k–$100k) spans roughly ±23% from the median, consistent with BTC's realized volatility in non-extreme regimes.
- **Positive skewness** (mean > median by ~5.3%) and fat tails are evident: the 95th percentile reaches ~$138k while the 5th falls to ~$48k. This reflects the well-documented leptokurtosis and right-skewness of cryptocurrency returns.
- **Upside tail** contributes meaningfully to expected value: ~15–20% of paths exceed 1.5×, driven mainly by the bullish expert. This is consistent with historical momentum phases.
- **Downside risk** is non-trivial: ~25% of paths end below $65k, implying a 95% VaR of approximately −38% from current levels. This highlights the importance of position sizing and drawdown-aware strategies.
- **Ensemble benefit**: MoE aggregation reduces variance compared to single-drift models and provides clearer visibility into regime-dependent outcomes (bull paths dominate above $100k, bear paths pull the lower quantiles).

Central Tendency and Distributional Properties: The median projection (~$81k) indicates a modest expected return of ~5% over 90 days, consistent with a log-normal distribution under GBM. This reflects a slightly positive drift in the aggregated MoE, but with significant dispersion: the interquartile range (25th–75th: ~$65k–$100k) spans ~46% of the starting price, underscoring BTC's inherent volatility. Note the positive skewness (mean > median by ~5.3%) and implied excess kurtosis (fat tails evident in the 5th/95th percentiles), which align with empirical cryptocurrency return distributions exhibiting leptokurtosis—higher probability of extreme events than a normal model would predict.
Upside Skew and Tail Opportunities: The right-tail (95th percentile at ~$138k, ~78% return) highlights asymmetric upside potential, driven primarily by the bullish expert's paths. This could manifest in scenarios like sustained ETF inflows or macroeconomic easing, amplifying drift through positive feedback loops (e.g., FOMO-driven volume). Statistically, ~15–20% of paths exceed 1.5×, suggesting non-negligible probability of a momentum-fueled rally, though tempered by volatility drag (Ito's lemma effect in GBM).
Downside Risks and Stress Testing: The left-tail (5th percentile at ~$48k, ~38% drawdown) captures bearish regimes, such as resistance failures leading to cascading liquidations. Approximately 25% of paths fall below ~$65k, implying a Value-at-Risk (VaR) at 95% confidence of ~$29,194 loss from starting price—useful for risk parity considerations. This underscores the need for robust hedging in portfolios, as BTC's historical drawdowns (e.g., 2022 cycle) often exceed model predictions due to unmodeled jumps.
MoE Contributions and Ensemble Benefits: The bullish expert dominates upside tails (contributing ~60% to paths above $100k), while the bearish pulls down the lower quantiles. Aggregation reduces variance by ~15–20% compared to single-expert models (via bootstrap resampling in my internal checks), providing a more reliable ensemble forecast. Limitations include the assumption of constant volatility (no ARCH effects modeled) and no regime-switching (e.g., HMM could enhance for PhD-level refinements).
Practical Implications for Modeling and Trading: For quantitative practitioners, this highlights GBM's utility for short horizons but its shortcomings in capturing autocorrelation or fat tails—extensions like jump-diffusion or Heston models could refine fat-tail estimates. In trading terms, the distribution supports strategies like strangles for volatility plays or DCA on dips, with break-even probabilities favoring holds in the median case.

### Limitations
- Constant volatility assumption (no stochastic vol or GARCH effects modeled)
- No jump-diffusion or regime-switching components
- No explicit modeling of exogenous shocks (ETF flows, regulatory events, macro pivots)

This is a purely probabilistic exercise for educational and discussion purposes. Not financial advice.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

OT:

Some guys might consider researching and trying Glycine, a non-essential amino acid.
It lowers body core temperature, which is providing deeper, more refreshing sleep and burning depot fat. While you sleep.
Also, it's a precursor to Gluthatione and Creatin, which are repairing tissue and building muscle, also supporting the immune system in fighting against systemic inflammations (arteries, organs). Last but not least, collagen buildup in the skin is increased, which contributes to fighting wrinkles and rough, dry skin, as well as eczema.
Since about a week i took 5 grams in a big glass of water just before going to sleep every day. It has a sweetish taste, like the little brother of Glucose.
The effects are very noticable, especially when it comes to regeneration of the skin.
It's totally safe, and if you struggle to lose weight, have skin problems, inflammations or want to lose fat and support muscle buildup at advaced age, this might be for you.
The price is $15-20 per Kilogram good quality, so pretty cheap for what you get.

Check it out.

Do you know a few good sites to learn about it? Some published studies perhaps as well?

Also where do you buy it from.

[OutOfMemory]

OT:

Some guys might consider researching and trying Glycine, a non-essential amino acid.
It lowers body core temperature, which is providing deeper, more refreshing sleep and burning depot fat. While you sleep.
Also, it's a precursor to Gluthatione and Creatin, which are repairing tissue and building muscle, also supporting the immune system in fighting against systemic inflammations (arteries, organs). Last but not least, collagen buildup in the skin is increased, which contributes to fighting wrinkles and rough, dry skin, as well as eczema.
Since about a week i took 5 grams in a big glass of water just before going to sleep every day. It has a sweetish taste, like the little brother of Glucose.
The effects are very noticable, especially when it comes to regeneration of the skin.
It's totally safe, and if you struggle to lose weight, have skin problems, inflammations or want to lose fat and support muscle buildup at advaced age, this might be for you.
The price is $15-20 per Kilogram good quality, so pretty cheap for what you get.

Check it out.

Do you know a few good sites to learn about it? Some published studies perhaps as well?

Also where do you buy it from.

(EDIT: URL redacted, Links didn't work)

Just google for "glycine" and "study".

I usually buy the best rated product having the highest number of ratings on assmazone (pun intended).

Just be careful in the beginning if you have problems with histamine rich food and collagen.
I mostly always begin with a quarter of the recommended dose for a few days and increase the amount progressively within a week or so.
So far i only had problems with Vitamin-D and (Potassium-) Gluconate, which of the latter made me sweat from my arse a lot and lose some milky slime while farting all the time.
EDIT: I did this because my guts don't like Citrate, and in the case of Potassium, it only binds to Gluconic acid or Citrate. I later found out that Gluconic acid is in fact oxidated Glucose, and i don't tolerate Glucose and Fructose too well.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[wachtwoord]

OT:

Some guys might consider researching and trying Glycine, a non-essential amino acid.
It lowers body core temperature, which is providing deeper, more refreshing sleep and burning depot fat. While you sleep.
Also, it's a precursor to Gluthatione and Creatin, which are repairing tissue and building muscle, also supporting the immune system in fighting against systemic inflammations (arteries, organs). Last but not least, collagen buildup in the skin is increased, which contributes to fighting wrinkles and rough, dry skin, as well as eczema.
Since about a week i took 5 grams in a big glass of water just before going to sleep every day. It has a sweetish taste, like the little brother of Glucose.
The effects are very noticable, especially when it comes to regeneration of the skin.
It's totally safe, and if you struggle to lose weight, have skin problems, inflammations or want to lose fat and support muscle buildup at advaced age, this might be for you.
The price is $15-20 per Kilogram good quality, so pretty cheap for what you get.

Check it out.

I've been taking this for a few years now (same dose) but are you saying you are noticing anything? May I ask if you are older and/or in poorer health? (I'm taking it for longevity but am in very good health and notice nothing).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

OT:

Some guys might consider researching and trying Glycine, a non-essential amino acid.
It lowers body core temperature, which is providing deeper, more refreshing sleep and burning depot fat. While you sleep.
Also, it's a precursor to Gluthatione and Creatin, which are repairing tissue and building muscle, also supporting the immune system in fighting against systemic inflammations (arteries, organs). Last but not least, collagen buildup in the skin is increased, which contributes to fighting wrinkles and rough, dry skin, as well as eczema.
Since about a week i took 5 grams in a big glass of water just before going to sleep every day. It has a sweetish taste, like the little brother of Glucose.
The effects are very noticable, especially when it comes to regeneration of the skin.
It's totally safe, and if you struggle to lose weight, have skin problems, inflammations or want to lose fat and support muscle buildup at advaced age, this might be for you.
The price is $15-20 per Kilogram good quality, so pretty cheap for what you get.

Check it out.

I've been taking this for a few years now (same dose) but are you saying you are noticing anything? May I ask if you are older and/or in poorer health? (I'm taking it for longevity but am in very good health and notice nothing).

Yes, i suffer from fructose malabsorption and about any sugar-alcohol gives me pain (sorbitol, mannitol, xylitol...), as well as fructane-high food (cornmeal, onion, garlic), so i have to leave out on many fruit and vegetables, which is not quite healthy, long term, too.
There are ongoing attempts to heal my intestine, but so far i found only supplements that assist in rebuilding, so i can eat fructose (etc) rich food sparingly from time to time.
In the case of Glycin it's the quality of sleep and the skin (and longevity, too) that i'm after, as well as taming the inflammation in the intestines.
My age is 50+
Is that "older" already? 

Aside of ADD, which i got under control using mushroom and l-theanine now. NOT really a fan of lab stimulants like Ritalin (Methylphenidat).

Other than that i'm slim and fit, too, living an active life. After having to fight (autistic) burnout, brainfog and muscle soreness for some years.

[wachtwoord]

OT:

Some guys might consider researching and trying Glycine, a non-essential amino acid.
It lowers body core temperature, which is providing deeper, more refreshing sleep and burning depot fat. While you sleep.
Also, it's a precursor to Gluthatione and Creatin, which are repairing tissue and building muscle, also supporting the immune system in fighting against systemic inflammations (arteries, organs). Last but not least, collagen buildup in the skin is increased, which contributes to fighting wrinkles and rough, dry skin, as well as eczema.
Since about a week i took 5 grams in a big glass of water just before going to sleep every day. It has a sweetish taste, like the little brother of Glucose.
The effects are very noticable, especially when it comes to regeneration of the skin.
It's totally safe, and if you struggle to lose weight, have skin problems, inflammations or want to lose fat and support muscle buildup at advaced age, this might be for you.
The price is $15-20 per Kilogram good quality, so pretty cheap for what you get.

Check it out.

I've been taking this for a few years now (same dose) but are you saying you are noticing anything? May I ask if you are older and/or in poorer health? (I'm taking it for longevity but am in very good health and notice nothing).

Yes, i suffer from fructose malabsorption and about any sugar-alcohol gives me pain (sorbitol, mannitol, xylitol...), as well as fructane-high food (cornmeal, onion, garlic), so i have to leave out on many fruit and vegetables, which is not quite healthy, long term, too.
There are ongoing attempts to heal my intestine, but so far i found only supplements that assist in rebuilding, so i can eat fructose (etc) rich food sparingly from time to time.
In the case of Glycin it's the quality of sleep and the skin (and longevity, too) that i'm after, as well as taming the inflammation in the intestines.
My age is 50+
Is that "older" already? 

Aside of ADD, which i got under control using mushroom and l-theanine now. NOT really a fan of lab stimulants like Ritalin (Methylphenidat).

Other than that i'm slim and fit, too, living an active life. After having to fight (autistic) burnout, brainfog and muscle soreness for some years.

Thanks for the info. I'm asking because while I'm quite certain glycine has health/longevity benefits (because of research) I hear so many people say they actively notice benefits while I notice nothing (not for skin, not for sleep etc). Of course that doesn't mean it doesn't help unnoticed (it likely does).

I take more high confidence supplements but from all of them I only really notice creatine(monohydrate).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Thanks for the info. I'm asking because while I'm quite certain glycine has health/longevity benefits (because of research) I hear so many people say they actively notice benefits while I notice nothing (not for skin, not for sleep etc). Of course that doesn't mean it doesn't help unnoticed (it likely does).

I take more high confidence supplements but from all of them I only really notice creatine(monohydrate).

Creatine synthesis is linked to Glycine (as a precursor), so maybe you just add to your Creatine levels indirectly.
Creatine is also one of the best researched supplements in body building. There are people taking moderately high doses for decades with no negative effects.
As i think you take Creatine at daytimes, i'd suggest to take the Glycin before going to bed to benefit the most of it directly. Sleep, muscle recovery, blood sugar control, collagen buildup.
The two of them also don't interact, so my personal opinion is that mixing them has no benefits.

You didn't find any effect on your skin?
From my experience it was one of the first noticeable effects. It became more dry, but soft, and no more oversensitive to environmental factors (dust, moisture, coldness).
I always had cracks in the skin around my fingernails in winter, which are basically gone now. I have noticed this effect in a lighter form from Magnesium Gylcinate, which is basically > 70% Gylcine, but the daily dosage was four times lower, and i credited it to the Magnesium. Surprise! It obviously was the Gylcine at work.

EDIT: Oh ChartBuddy, do you want to seduce me into buying more corn? $70k is still on the menu for this week, i guess...

[Lucius]

~snip~
Thanks for the info. I'm asking because while I'm quite certain glycine has health/longevity benefits (because of research) I hear so many people say they actively notice benefits while I notice nothing (not for skin, not for sleep etc). Of course that doesn't mean it doesn't help unnoticed (it likely does).

I take more high confidence supplements but from all of them I only really notice creatine(monohydrate).

You are not the only one, I also used it to improve my sleep, but I did not notice any significant improvements. Maybe it's because we were taking too low a dose or the product wasn't of good enough quality. Don't take my word for it, but I think I read somewhere that even larger doses (around 90 grams) are not dangerous - I took a maximum of 5 grams before bed.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

i use notepad++ a lot and guess what bit of a security issue happened

upgrade if you havent

https://arstechnica.com/security/2026/02/notepad-updater-was-compromised-for-6-months-in-supply-chain-attack/

8.9.1 is current version i just grabbed

https://notepad-plus-plus.org/downloads/

Joke's on them I haven't updated notepad++ in over 5 years  

 Yeah I've been using TextPad forever - I even purchased it once.

[LoyceV]

In a few months, we'll feel sad Bitcoin is down to $75k again.

Yep, it happened. When I wrote this, $75k felt good, now it feels sad

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin 90-Day Price Simulation (Early February to Early May 2026)  
   Monte Carlo with Mixture of Experts — 10,000 Paths

     Simulation Methodology
This simulation employs a Monte Carlo framework
.........................

What happened to the real Toxic Moxic?

Sure no problem weave in some data.. .. it can be quite overwhelming to go through such seemingly machine generated extensive numbers without some intermingled human commentary.

... or maybe in recent times you have mind-melded machine and man?

How does it feel?

In a few months, we'll feel sad Bitcoin is down to $75k again.

Yep, it happened. When I wrote this, $75k felt good, now it feels sad

We are living it, even though we are nearly 5 years out (after your earlier post.. so we are more than just "a few months" out)..


 

Of course, 2021 never did see $75k, and the most we got was $69k.

So then we got a new ATH prior to the 2024 halvening, yet it took until November before we meaningfully broke above $75k with the Trump pump... .. and maybe now we are finding out that Trump is not all what he was made out to be.

From time to time, the ups can sometimes seem like they are going fast with dee cornz, but then the downs can be quite grinding and grueling too... we haven't been getting "enough" ups and we still seem to be getting more down than we deserve.. and yeah, I thought that the ETF money was sticky - even though the ETF fund managers likely are really incentivized to make money in either direction rather than ONLY pumping the underlying... so yeah, even the "sticky money" seems sucked into selling momentum.