Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Proud heart climbs the sky,
Wings melt in the sun's fierce heat...
Fallen. To the dust.

[Toxic2040]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

I have to say…. OGn. Been saying it for a long long time

Though the upside wasn’t correct so high chances the downside can be different as well…
Who knows, hodl

+1 WOsMerit


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[vapourminer]

so, how far from now till the current folks in power decide "hey OK lets absolutely doing something soooooooooo monumentally financially stupid there is no way they can let it go bad, so gonna hafta do some more of that sweeeeeet sweeeeet bail money (for the Beautiful People anyway).

and for the mundanes in the room: sorry for your losses

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

I have to say…. OGn. Been saying it for a long long time

Though the upside wasn’t correct so high chances the downside can be different as well…
Who knows, hodl

Ya, I missed a multi-year top prediction by 3% and then warned people to sell 7% from the ATH.  Definitely don't listen to me when I say we're going to $56K as a result...  We might only go down to $58K, how embarrassingly wrong I would be then...

Taking the side of the four year cycle was an easy call.  There is no more simple case of supply and demand in the global investment market.  Ignoring investment 101 because it is different this time was such an obvious blunder, I had to be annoyingly vocal about it.  When I get bearish in the spring of 2029, I hope people will remember this lesson and defend me from the newbies and broken clocks instead of joining them.  I was right and I was right when it mattered, regardless of how far people want to move the goalposts now.

[El duderino_]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

I have to say…. OGn. Been saying it for a long long time

Though the upside wasn’t correct so high chances the downside can be different as well…
Who knows, hodl

Ya, I missed a multi-year top prediction by 3% and then warned people to sell 7% from the ATH.  Definitely don't listen to me when I say we're going to $56K as a result...  We might only go down to $58K, how embarrassingly wrong I would be then...

Naah…. IMO you where right… but as for the up I was hoping it to be wrong just as I hope it for the downside…

I just want it always to be different this time situation. Until that point i hope everyone is wrong every time

I wasn’t attacking you or anything be calm my friend sit back and relax.
Though you where aiming +170K for the bull not ?? Would be wrong by more as 3% but nonetheless I wasn’t attacking you’re predictions (actually saying they where spot on.)

[Biodom]

We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.

I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.

I have to say…. OGn. Been saying it for a long long time

Though the upside wasn’t correct so high chances the downside can be different as well…
Who knows, hodl

Ya, I missed a multi-year top prediction by 3% and then warned people to sell 7% from the ATH.  Definitely don't listen to me when I say we're going to $56K as a result...  We might only go down to $58K, how embarrassingly wrong I would be then...

Taking the side of the four year cycle was an easy call.  There is no more simple case of supply and demand in the global investment market.  Ignoring investment 101 because it is different this time was such an obvious blunder, I had to be annoyingly vocal about it.  When I get bearish in the spring of 2029, I hope people will remember this lesson and defend me from the newbies and broken clocks instead of joining them.  I was right and I was right when it mattered, regardless of how far people want to move the goalposts now.

It remains to be seen, but in general, expecting the same thing happening every 4 years is a little naive, I would think, considering the size of the market vs miner's output.
Yes, some simple calculation might have indicated a price of 2x based on the previous cycles, no biggie, truly..everyone got that math in spades.

Perhaps super-cyclists got this one wrong so far, but it is temporary at best.
Why? Because if bitcoin would continue the cycles with each cycle rising a fraction of the previous, but then plunging the same >70%, then bitcoin would wither and die, no question about it, just look at the math-70% decline from 126=37.8K (not sure where the 56K number is coming from-probably 200 wma, but the last time we went below), then a climb of 50% up from 126K=189K, then a 65% decline (65 is less that presumable 70 this time in this scenario, which is less than prior 77) from 189K=66K. Notice how it would be lower than three prior cycle peaks in this scenario (21, 25 and 29). At that point with such low of almost 10 years, no "regular" person would invest for a decade, perhaps. A bitcoin depression would ensue.

Now, are you saying that ONLY the timing would continue, but the numerical values (%) would not?
I would argue: why the heck not if there are these price cycles a well?

Conclusion: it's going to be either cycle and die, eventually, OR not cycle and grow almost continuously with maybe a 30-40% declines maximum going forward.

[xhomerx10]

Woah 21.8¢/kWh? So that's what Californication means!

Have you ever been?

The weather is pretty sweet (on the coast).
This is all referred to as "California tax".

From what I have seen at least 50% Californians are scared that if they would lose the job, they would have to relocate.
That said, having pretty much the same weather day in and day out (like in San Diego) does not really entice me as I like having all four seasons (even if some of them are quite small around here).

 No, I've never been there.  I have a cousin who lives there with her family and my sister and her family went there for a visit but when she told me the cost of the hotel room and what my cousin was paying in rent for a tiny apartment... I could never go.  I saw all their pictures and videos though and it looks like a nice place - they were mostly in San Francisco.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

When are those McDonald's hats coming back on?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

When are those McDonald's hats coming back on?

Old thread 7-8-10 + year members

If anyone of them needing Mcdo hats, then they’ve been doing something wrong imo.

[cAPSLOCK]

When are those McDonald's hats coming back on?

Old thread 7-8-10 + year members

If anyone of them needing Mcdo hats, then they’ve been doing something wrong imo.

No Mcd's here though I've been considering the training to become a licensed massage therapist.

I think I'd be good at it. Easy way to make some ramen monies...

[somac.]

When are those McDonald's hats coming back on?

Old thread 7-8-10 + year members

If anyone of them needing Mcdo hats, then they’ve been doing something wrong imo.

No Mcd's here though I've been considering the training to become a licensed massage therapist.

I think I'd be good at it. Easy way to make some ramen monies...

Ok, no hats but first mention of ramen. The bottom must be getting closer.

[Leahized]

Stock of corn sways soft
A chorus of golden stems
Bowing to the breeze



Haiku

[OgNasty]

Though you where aiming +170K for the bull not ?? Would be wrong by more as 3% but nonetheless I wasn’t attacking you’re predictions (actually saying they where spot on.)

I believe I gave a range for a possible top between $130K-$170K depending on whether or not Strategy was included in the S&P500. It wasn’t, so the target I was expecting was around $130K. When that failed to be reached and we saw a 7% decline from the all time high, I made the call to sell at $117K.

I would now say that when the 200 week moving average is broken, I would look for a capitulation signal to follow and mark the bottom. I’m not expecting that to happen until this next winter, but maybe things continue to move more quickly than I’ve been predicting as the 200 week moving average would be significantly higher by then.

Edited to correct day/week error.

[JayJuanGee]

Though you where aiming +170K for the bull not ?? Would be wrong by more as 3% but nonetheless I wasn’t attacking you’re predictions (actually saying they where spot on.)

I believe I gave a range for a possible top between $130K-$170K depending on whether or not Strategy was included in the S&P500. It wasn’t, so the target I was expecting was around $130K. When that failed to be reached and we saw a 7% decline from the all time high, I made the call to sell at $117K.

I would now say that when the 200 day moving average is broken, I would look for a capitulation signal to follow and mark the bottom. I’m not expecting that to happen until this next winter, but maybe things continue to move more quickly than I’ve been predicting as the 200 day moving average would be significantly higher by then.

You seem to be referring to the the BTC price reaching the 200-WMA and taking a year to accomplish such, and the 200-WMA is currently at $58k.    Note that currently, the 200-DMA is above $100k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Oshosondy]

Pack it up bros, its over

Is this fake or haters stupidity?

[somac.]

Is this fake or haters stupidity?

99% sure it's fake.