Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

So far the bottom has been called by me at 66.6k. let us see If I am the mad genius so stupidly luck one this time.

Although I think that this is the bottom if OgNasty is to be proven wrong.

But unfortunately OgNasty may not be wrong which means more pain and under 60k

Ready to say "phil was right" if we can go back up now

At the moment, it doesn’t want to go up

Well it went lower than 66.6k

Oh well

[cAPSLOCK]

I wanted to repost something here that I said to an audience of people who I will not describe as to their level of ignorance when it comes to what Bitcoin is. But I think it's kind of a good summation and it was in response to some people discussing the potential troubles of MSTR.

Something that I think is important to consider right now is what MSTR is. It is essentially paper Bitcoin.

And paper Bitcoin isn't Bitcoin.

Various forms of paper Bitcoin and then the derivatives that come from them end up having a negative price impact on actual Bitcoin via rehypothication.

One of the most interesting properties of Bitcoin that I think is still fairly misunderstood is that it is simple to take custody of it oneself. Well... when you actually own real Bitcoin.

I believe we are seeing the fruition of the late Charlie Munger's prophecy that "they" would tame it. And I think it is through mainly derivatives on the institutional products, just as they have done with the underlying assets of every other ETF.

But the issue of global, permissionless, digital custody is going to make that a very interesting fight.

I'm already running out of popcorn.

[Biodom]

Or, maybe civilization as we know it is about to collapse  .

Is going to?

not a prediction, but a rhetorical argument.

[OgNasty]

What, exactly, in your charts predicted the turn around at 97K...asking for a friend.
It's all f-g random, man.

It only appears random if you don't know what is going on...

well, a 30K-58K range suggests that you don't know it either  
PS: I am making bank on a small MSTZ hedge-up almost 30% today...well... it is a small solace.

It suggests I don’t know every little thing that will happen and give a range to be determined by market conditions. That is why I continue to provide analysis instead of just posting a number and walking away. I am however confused by the egos of people like you who were completely wrong, lost half their money as a result, and still throw insults at the person who was right and tried to save you from going broke.  

Like I said, we don’t bottom until Biodom admits I was right and he was wrong. Still further to go…

[JayJuanGee]

Now...pretty much all support has broken down and nobody knows what would happen.

The next major support level is around $54K.  We will likely visit it before this is all over.  What isn't obvious is if we stop there and reverse or if we fall to the next support level, which is just below $30K.  Personally, I think the bottom will be somewhere between those 2 numbers (hopefully closer to the top), but there is hope for a relief rally at the 200 week moving average, currently around $58K.  Today isn't the bottom.  Neither is tomorrow.  I'm guessing we will find it somewhere between this September and next March after a few sideways months around $50K before a final shakeout.

I am however not waiting to try and time the bottom.  I have already started monthly DCA buys and plan to continue them for the next 2 years before holding and then selling again in the spring of 29.

Thanks, Mr Nostradamus...30-58K is quite a range...just as N. prophesized as well.

The nickname I've been called in various chatrooms for over a decade by those who follow my predictions has been Ogstradamus, but it is nice that you are coming around. I have nailed the tops and bottoms so well over the years, I've decided this cycle I would be more vocal about it here as I am one of very few professional analysts who have been covering Bitcoin for 15 years.

What, exactly, in your charts predicted the turn around at 97K...asking for a friend.
It's all f-g random, man.

It only appears random if you don't know what is going on...

If you started advising 15 years ago then you must have accumulated more than 200 BTC in your first 20 months since the average cost per coin would have had been less than $10 for your first 20 months registered here on the forum. 

Also if you have been such a consistent baller, then you surely must have more than 200 BTC right now, since wouldn’t a successful trader end up with more coins rather than fewer?  You had mentioned to me earlier that one of your indications of success is to end up with more coins rather than fewer after each whole cycle of trading.

[Biodom]

Now...pretty much all support has broken down and nobody knows what would happen.

The next major support level is around $54K.  We will likely visit it before this is all over.  What isn't obvious is if we stop there and reverse or if we fall to the next support level, which is just below $30K.  Personally, I think the bottom will be somewhere between those 2 numbers (hopefully closer to the top), but there is hope for a relief rally at the 200 week moving average, currently around $58K.  Today isn't the bottom.  Neither is tomorrow.  I'm guessing we will find it somewhere between this September and next March after a few sideways months around $50K before a final shakeout.

I am however not waiting to try and time the bottom.  I have already started monthly DCA buys and plan to continue them for the next 2 years before holding and then selling again in the spring of 29.

Thanks, Mr Nostradamus...30-58K is quite a range...just as N. prophesized as well.

The nickname I've been called in various chatrooms for over a decade by those who follow my predictions has been Ogstradamus, but it is nice that you are coming around. I have nailed the tops and bottoms so well over the years, I've decided this cycle I would be more vocal about it here as I am one of very few professional analysts who have been covering Bitcoin for 15 years.

What, exactly, in your charts predicted the turn around at 97K...asking for a friend.
It's all f-g random, man.

It only appears random if you don't know what is going on...

well, a 30K-58K range suggests that you don't know it either  
PS: I am making bank on a small MSTZ hedge-up almost 30% today...well... it is a small solace.

It suggests I don’t know every little thing that will happen and give a range to be determined by market conditions. That is why I continue to provide analysis instead of just posting a number and walking away. I am however confused by the egos of people like you who were completely wrong, lost half their money as a result, and still throw insults at the person who was right and tried to save you from going broke.  

Like I said, we don’t bottom until Biodom admits I was right and he was wrong. Still further to go…

I lost nothing since I did not sell...it is just numbers on a screen (I don't get a statement from the "CEO of bitcoin"), so your argument does not compute/is irrelevant.
I don't mark it to market in any reporting and I am at a jurisdiction that doesn't tax unrealized gains (yet).
My cost basis is low. To mobilize some of my "winnings", I might consider a loan at some point if the interest rates would be good enough.
Selling btc is not in my "investment plan".

[JayJuanGee]

The nickname I've been called in various chatrooms for over a decade by those who follow my predictions has been Ogstradamus, but it is nice that you are coming around. I have nailed the tops and bottoms so well over the years, I've decided this cycle I would be more vocal about it here as I am one of very few professional analysts who have been covering Bitcoin for 15 years.

I guess that didn't work out so well for your marriage, did it?  

well, a 30K-58K range suggests that you don't know it either 

Nobody knows anything is the correct answer, but many people are trying to fake it to a reputation of being correct.

When it comes to OgNasty, what else is new?   He just loves to retroactively spin, which I am doubtful if he even has 30 coins when given his date of claimed expertise going back 15 years, he should have well north of 300 coins if he were to be even close to as successful “professional” trade advisor as he is proclaiming himself to be.

[OgNasty]

If you started advising 15 years ago then you must have accumulated more than 200 BTC in your first 20 months since the average cost per coin would have had been less than $10 for your first 20 months registered here on the forum.  

Also if you have been such a consistent baller, then you surely must have more than 200 BTC right now, since wouldn’t a successful trader end up with more coins rather than fewer?  You had mentioned to me earlier that one of your indications of success is to end up with more coins rather than fewer after each whole cycle of trading.

Are we speculating on people’s stacks now? My stack will be bigger at the end of the year than it was at the start. Yours will be smaller. You sell Bitcoin every single year and plan to do it the rest of your life without ever accumulating more. Be real. You’re a leech on the Bitcoin community who only sells while pretending to be a bull.

I lost nothing since I did not sell...

What a goal. I’ll stick to making money.

[Paashaas]

They executed the meme pretty well.


X

[Gachapin]

What, exactly, in your charts predicted the turn around at 97K...asking for a friend.
It's all f-g random, man.

It only appears random if you don't know what is going on...

well, a 30K-58K range suggests that you don't know it either  
PS: I am making bank on a small MSTZ hedge-up almost 30% today...well... it is a small solace.

It suggests I don’t know every little thing that will happen and give a range to be determined by market conditions. That is why I continue to provide analysis instead of just posting a number and walking away. I am however confused by the egos of people like you who were completely wrong, lost half their money as a result, and still throw insults at the person who was right and tried to save you from going broke.  

Like I said, we don’t bottom until Biodom admits I was right and he was wrong. Still further to go…

cmon Biodom... do the right thing... take one for the team  

[Gachapin]

is there any cup ramen with wagyu flavor?

[cAPSLOCK]

Or, maybe civilization as we know it is about to collapse  .

Is going to?

not a prediction, but a rhetorical argument.

My anemic attempted humor in this case was more aimed at the concept that we are already well underway, in my opinion.

Of course, in this case, the qualifier "as we know it" is important and the definition of "collapse" as well as "civilization".

I think I really need to go ahead and read that fourth turning book.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

What, exactly, in your charts predicted the turn around at 97K...asking for a friend.
It's all f-g random, man.

It only appears random if you don't know what is going on...

well, a 30K-58K range suggests that you don't know it either  
PS: I am making bank on a small MSTZ hedge-up almost 30% today...well... it is a small solace.

It suggests I don’t know every little thing that will happen and give a range to be determined by market conditions. That is why I continue to provide analysis instead of just posting a number and walking away. I am however confused by the egos of people like you who were completely wrong, lost half their money as a result, and still throw insults at the person who was right and tried to save you from going broke.  

Like I said, we don’t bottom until Biodom admits I was right and he was wrong. Still further to go…

If you were to have more than 300 BTC from your 15 years of trading, then I might be impressed, since at least you would have had been able to not lose too many coins as compared with a buy and hold strategy, since with a buy and hold strategy you could have had easily accumulated 200 BTC in your first 20 months of having gotten into bitcoin with a mere $100 per month investment and an average coin cost of $10 per coin.

You could have stopped at 200 coins or maybe just continue to buy at around the same rate to the extent that you could have had earned an income that resulted in $100 per month of sufficient discretionary funds to be able to afford you an ability to put it into bitcoin.  Surely that would have had been a superior strategy as compared with trading, no? 

If you were to have 300 bitcoin, then why would it matter if you were to have $126k ($38 million) in value or $58k  ($17 million).  I know you want more and more, yet you likely ended up with way less than 30 bitcoin based on your trading and desires for more in the face of one of the best (if not the best?) of places to put your value.

[Gachapin]

this time manipulators didn't even bother to fabricate a reason for the dump.. So it must have been "the cycle".

I bet next thing they will do is fucking over the cyclists...

[OutOfMemory]

this time manipulators didn't even bother to fabricate a reason for the dump.. So it must have been "the cycle".

I bet next thing they will do is fucking over the cyclists...

I doubt we're done for today...
still sharp sells crushing the buys.

[Gachapin]

this time manipulators didn't even bother to fabricate a reason for the dump.. So it must have been "the cycle".

I bet next thing they will do is fucking over the cyclists...

I doubt we're done for today...
still sharp sells crushing the buys.

cycle low should be end of February / March

[JayJuanGee]

If you started advising 15 years ago then you must have accumulated more than 200 BTC in your first 20 months since the average cost per coin would have had been less than $10 for your first 20 months registered here on the forum.  
Also if you have been such a consistent baller, then you surely must have more than 200 BTC right now, since wouldn’t a successful trader end up with more coins rather than fewer?  You had mentioned to me earlier that one of your indications of success is to end up with more coins rather than fewer after each whole cycle of trading.

Are we speculating on people’s stacks now? My stack will be bigger at the end of the year than it was at the start. Yours will be smaller. You sell Bitcoin every single year and plan to do it the rest of your life without ever accumulating more. Be real. You’re a leech on the Bitcoin community who only sells while pretending to be a bull.

I am trying get it in you seemingly thick assed head that historically in bitcoin there have been a lot of ways buy and hold strategies would have had been better than trying to trade, especially if you would have had the advantage of starting out early, so if you end up reaching a large enough BTC stash size, then you could convert into a status of no longer needing to accumulate in order to support your lifestyle level.

So there are advantages in reaching a high enough quantity of bitcoin.

I lost nothing since I did not sell...

What a goal. I’ll stick to making money.

I doubt that overall you are making money from your trading of BTC, especially if we were to attempt to account for your whole 15 years of supposed “professional” bitcoin trading practices, even if you might have gotten lucky this time around, which I wonder about that, too. 

You might have had noticed that many guys here tend to be a wee bit reluctant in regards to selling large portions of their bitcoin stash, even during periods that the bitcoin price might start to seem frothy, and the information can be ambiguous. 

How much (in terms of percentage %) of your supposed bitcoin stash did you sell in the purported $117k area?  50%? More?  Less?

[cAPSLOCK]

If you were to have 300 bitcoin, then why would it matter if you were to have $126k ($38 million) in value or $58k  ($17 million).  I know you want more and more, yet you likely ended up with way less than 30 bitcoin based on your trading and desires for more in the face of one of the best (if not the best?) of places to put your value.

This is not my question to answer, but when has that ever stopped me?

[cAPSLOCK]

this time manipulators didn't even bother to fabricate a reason for the dump.. So it must have been "the cycle".

I bet next thing they will do is fucking over the cyclists...

I doubt we're done for today...
still sharp sells crushing the buys.

cycle low should be end of February / March

But. And I pose this as a very serious question.  Almost every other cycle prediction was a failure so far in this cycle. Timings, amounts all of them off enough for me to call them misses.

Why would we expect the bottom to work the way it's supposed to?

It may be annoying for some people to read, and I accept my Don Quixote's status in this regard, but we are not playing the game that we played for the last 15 years anymore.