Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Man, this price action is actually hilariously exciting! It's like watching Toyota Motor Company or Ford putting a Going Out of Business sign on their dealerships and then removing it, and then doing it all over again, and again, and again.      

[philipma1957]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)

...add 4 years:

2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)

...add 4 years:

2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)

...add 4 years:

2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)

...add 4 years:

2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected

...

Bitstamp prices.

Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

I think we are in for the usual (predictable and expected) cycle winter, until 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH).

Gold/silver, politics, wars, pandemics, they just add noise, but do not break the pattern.

Buy/HoDL if you can, spend some if you want/must, enjoy life (that should be the goal).

This is fine.

No...this is an over-simplification. No cycle is guaranteed...all this 2029 projections is reaching.
It could turn around in 2 months or it could stay down for 3 years.
The cycle cannot exist because there is not enough daily btc issuance vs trading volume, can't you see this?

Additionally, the math of diminishing returns, but very slowly decreasing % of plunges suggests the demise of the asset-can't you "math it"?
Run the numbers. It's either no cycles and growth or f-g cycles and an almost assured demise.

No rationality except of looking backwards.
Examples: Ben Cowen (the silliest analyst ever), Ognasty, Ivan on tech, etc.
Prediction: down you'll go (in your analysis) when btc shows something new and relatively soonish.

Nothing is guaranteed, that's for sure.

I hope I'm wrong, but I feel we're in for a long stretch of sideways, until a new ATH.

Time will tell.

Sideways with slight uptick say 77k in 2 months-5 months

True sideways say 65k in 2 months- 5 months?

They both are okay for me.

Big up is better say 150k by August 9th.

And under 50k pretty much sucks if we get stuck there. ALTHOUGH under 50k will drop the Difficulty again.


Oh BTW the super tanking did send signals,it was on it's way by the long slow Difficulty drop that happened from Oct to mid jan.

[WatChe]

The Cheat Day - Combo of Chicken, Beef and Rice.

[JayJuanGee]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)
...add 4 years:
2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)
...add 4 years:
2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)
...add 4 years:
2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)
...add 4 years:
2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected
...
Bitstamp prices.
Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.
I think we are in for the usual (predictable and expected) cycle winter, until 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH).

Gold/silver, politics, wars, pandemics, they just add noise, but do not break the pattern.
Buy/HoDL if you can, spend some if you want/must, enjoy life (that should be the goal).
This is fine.

No...this is an over-simplification. No cycle is guaranteed...all these 2029 projections are unreliable.
It could turn around in 2 months or it could stay down for 3 years.
The cycle cannot exist because there is not enough daily btc issuance vs trading volume, can't you see this?

I think that AlcoHoDL is correct in setting forth the tentative framework, and set up for where we are at.

It seems with any framework, we could end up seeing the projection to deviate from the history, yet he has largely outlined the facts as they stand within a reasonable framework.

I was so surprised that our correction from today got within 3.5% of touching the 200-WMA... that was a holey moley surprise, and usually the bottom price, after the ATH comes around 1 year after the ATH - which kind of establishes that there was likely a lot of artificiality to the magnitude of our dumpening - it is like desperation and/or needs to go into the extreme to potentially lure folks into thinking that we may have 12-18 months of either flat and/or more down from here.

So, yep.  it could be dangerous to accept that either there is not going to be an UP or that any Up is going to get violently pushed back down... even though surely I am questioning the motives and the abilities of the powers that be to push the price down without suffering negative consequences?  So far, we are not seeing any major floating dead bodies.  I wonder?

Additionally, the math of diminishing returns, but very slowly decreasing % of plunges suggests the demise of the asset-can't you "math it"?
Run the numbers. It's either no cycles and growth or f-g cycles and an almost assured demise.

There is something that seems too black and white in your thinking Biodom..... and yeah, there is something wrong with trying to plug this into supply framework - which largely means that some kinds of back doors have been found to inflate the fuckout of the supply and/or to be naked shorting bitcoin without any negative consequences to the fucktwats who are either naked shorting or engaging in some kinds of paper bitcoin manipulations... and surely, do they have arrangements to use the coins of other people?  It happened in the 2022 cascading events at maybe a scale of 5 or 10 bitcoin to 1 - even though FTX had only about 1/10,000 the quantity of bitcoin they claimed to have had..

Our current manipulators are much more sophisticated, they control more exchanges now too... the bigger ones, especially.

One of the dangers would be if they manipulate so much that they bitcoiners lose confidence in bitcoin, so they want to make sure that when they try to show bitcoin as broken, then it is actually safe to put your money with the ETF providers blah blah blah... to the extent that the twats have an end game that involves them being able to continue to make money so instead of killing the golden goose they just inflict a wee bit of damage that does not negatively impact its abilities to lay eggs.  Yummy yummy.
 

No rationality except of looking backwards.
Examples: Ben Cowen (the silliest analyst ever), Ognasty, Ivan on tech, etc.
Prediction: down you'll go (in your analysis) when btc shows something new and relatively soonish.

I kind of agree with your recognition of the dangers in presuming that more downity is inevitable, even though, like I said, holy shit they were able to get a lot of down in the last few days, and I doubt that the fucktwat manipulators are even close to done.  They seem to want something to break, and they likely believe that they are in charge, too..

Man, this price action is actually hilariously exciting! It's like watching Toyota Motor Company or Ford putting a Going Out of Business sign on their dealerships and then removing it, and then doing it all over again, and again, and again.      

If you were genuine, rather than just making shit up, you would have more concerns - as long as you mostly stay within the guidlines of your handler, then I suppose you will be o.k.

[edited out]

Nothing is guaranteed, that's for sure.
I hope I'm wrong, but I feel we're in for a long stretch of sideways, until a new ATH.
Time will tell.

As once was said by Yogi Berra:  I am not paying LFC in advance of the "over" date.

[AlcoHoDL]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)

...add 4 years:

2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)

...add 4 years:

2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)

...add 4 years:

2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)

...add 4 years:

2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected

...

Bitstamp prices.

Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

I think we are in for the usual (predictable and expected) cycle winter, until 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH).

Gold/silver, politics, wars, pandemics, they just add noise, but do not break the pattern.

Buy/HoDL if you can, spend some if you want/must, enjoy life (that should be the goal).

This is fine.

No...this is an over-simplification. No cycle is guaranteed...all these 2029 projections are unreliable.
It could turn around in 2 months or it could stay down for 3 years.
The cycle cannot exist because there is not enough daily btc issuance vs trading volume, can't you see this?

Additionally, the math of diminishing returns, but very slowly decreasing % of plunges suggests the demise of the asset-can't you "math it"?
Run the numbers. It's either no cycles and growth or f-g cycles and an almost assured demise.

No rationality except of looking backwards.
Examples: Ben Cowen (the silliest analyst ever), Ognasty, Ivan on tech, etc.
Prediction: down you'll go (in your analysis) when btc shows something new and relatively soonish.

Adding to my earlier reply:

The existence of cycles does not equal diminishing returns or the demise of Bitcoin. Equating cycles with the demise of Bitcoin is a distorted interpretation of cycles. In my view, 4-year cycles are more about time (hence their name), and less about value. I.e., the next cycle ATH may well occur in 2029 or thereabouts (as projected), but its value could well be much higher than the past (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025) ATH price progression. If you re-read my post above, nowhere did I predict a price for the next ATH. All I gave was the projected time of the next cycle ATH, based on historical cycle ATH times of the past 14 years.

In my view, the fact (and it's a hard fact, deeply embedded in Bitcoin's design) that Bitcoin production is reduced by half every 4 years, necessitates the existence of 4-year cycles. It just can't happen any other way. Cutting production of Bitcoin (or, indeed, of anything) by half is too large of a step change to not have an effect on price, that has to be in sync with the halving time (every 4 years!).

Sure, something very positive could happen to Bitcoin, and very likely will happen, and I hope it happens soon, that will push the price very high, even in the $millions. But, in my opinion, and considering the way Bitcoin works at the technical/algorithmic level, the 4-year cycles will still be there, ever present, and a direct result of the halving of Bitcoin production every 4 years. Math & science!

[OgNasty]

is there any cup ramen with wagyu flavor?

I had one with truffle the day before yesterday

I had slow roasted baby back ribs. With fresh slice carrots on the side. Also a very small slice of a cranberry scone.

I had some lamb kebab and salad with a Turkish coffee the other day.

I’ve been grabbing fancy club sandwiches with a side of lobster bisque every day at a nearby cafe for the last week. Today I ate chili out of a can. The struggle is real.

alright..enough crying in your bisque...back to work

back to building


ps   i like canned chili   come to think of it ...i like canned tuna...and canned peaches   just not usually all at the same time

I have a taste for canned tuna.

I will use some mayo with finely diced apple and make a few tacos for Friday's lunch.

 Use finely diced celery instead and a boiled egg

edit: oh and canned peaches with 2% cottage cheese. (Daisy if you can get it)

A can of tuna and a box of peppered triscuits is a good time. Throw in some cheese and you’ve got a party.

[Richy_T]

Today I ate chili out of a can.

Look at John Rockefeller here. I bet it was even no beans.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

is there any cup ramen with wagyu flavor?

I had one with truffle the day before yesterday

you mean instant?  link or it didn't happen

[philipma1957]

Had some nice mushroom coffee which is why I am still awake.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DHP915W6?


I used 1/3 of a teaspoon  of it put it into this coffee.

https://www.amazon.com/New-England-Coffee-Hazelnut-Medium/dp/B0859JTC9L/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?


And used some of this for milk

https://www.amazon.com/Almond-Breeze-Unsweetened-Vanilla-Almondmilk/dp/B00CJ8JJ6W/ref=sr_1_1_us_f3_0o_wf?


This is quite a good tasting drink of coffee.

Tomorrow I will try it with vodka.

https://www.totalwine.com/spirits/deals/vodka/vodka/belvedere-organic-vodka/p/2126222198?


Good nite all.

Here is to 70 k on friday

[somac.]

My 60k buy hit, hoping for up now 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

What's this bullshit about 2021 I keep hearing?

We never dropped below the last time I bought in from what I can see, and that was 2 years ago. Not 5 years.
I felt like a stupid FOMO donkey at the time I remember but we've been up ever since.

[Bigjoe158]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)

...add 4 years:

2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)

...add 4 years:

2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)

...add 4 years:

2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)

...add 4 years:

2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected

...

Bitstamp prices.

Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

I think we are in for the usual (predictable and expected) cycle winter, until 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH).

Gold/silver, politics, wars, pandemics, they just add noise, but do not break the pattern.

Buy/HoDL if you can, spend some if you want/must, enjoy life (that should be the goal).

This is fine.

No...this is an over-simplification. No cycle is guaranteed...all this 2029 projections is reaching.
It could turn around in 2 months or it could stay down for 3 years.
The cycle cannot exist because there is not enough daily btc issuance vs trading volume, can't you see this?

Additionally, the math of diminishing returns, but very slowly decreasing % of plunges suggests the demise of the asset-can't you "math it"?
Run the numbers. It's either no cycles and growth or f-g cycles and an almost assured demise.

No rationality except of looking backwards.
Examples: Ben Cowen (the silliest analyst ever), Ognasty, Ivan on tech, etc.
Prediction: down you'll go (in your analysis) when btc shows something new and relatively soonish.

Nothing is guaranteed, that's for sure.

I hope I'm wrong, but I feel we're in for a long stretch of sideways, until a new ATH.

Time will tell.

Nothing is guaranteed in this system especially bitcoin movement. Normally fluctuation is part of any business. Hope and speculation is what people have in bitcoin. The projection may be right or wrong. Another angle about the projection is trust and stability of the Bitcoin handlers. All we do is to speculate if by the first quarter of the year, Bitcoin will hit a low or high price. In my opinion it will hit high price because of the instability of the fiat in some countries.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bangjoe]

BUY MORE BTC !!!!!




Don't thank me for reminding you of this. LOL

[LoyceV]

No...this is an over-simplification. No cycle is guaranteed...all these 2029 projections are unreliable.
It could turn around in 2 months or it could stay down for 3 years.
The cycle cannot exist because there is not enough daily btc issuance vs trading volume, can't you see this?

The fundamental reason for a 4 year cycle, the halvings, lose half their power with each new halving. The first one was strong, the second still strong, the third lost power, the forth meant even less, and the next one will be even more meaningless. Freshly mined Bitcoins are insignificant compared to the total trading volume.
Without a fundamental reason for a 4 year cycle, it will only exist as long as enough people believe it exists and make it happen by speculating on it. Until it doesn't happen anymore.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[machasm]

Just resurrecting this quote from me during the last bear.
Not looking for likes just a reminder of why we bitcoin.
Chin up guys.

Everyone keeps looking for some signs as to what King Daddy is going to do next.
Looking at past cycles/charts to try to put some strategy in place to buy and sell.
Only a couple of months ago everyone was screaming well over 100K for this cycle and now there is so much doom and gloom around.
What does it all mean?

I look at it this way.
Why did I get into bitcoin in the first place?
Was it to make a quick buck? Hell no!
I could see that the current financial system was f*cked and guess what?
It still is!!
I bought and held bitcoin because I believe in the future it can bring us all.
It just takes time. Along the way there will be many who enter the space to make a quick buck and this will be reflected in the swings in the market.
That doesn't matter in the long run.
Bitcoin remains the greatest store of value humanity (Satoshi) has invented yet and the world is slowly waking up to that fact.
I for one am not worried about the current price action and continue to HODL every Satoshi.
We will ride the storm as we have always done and that core group, us HODLers are the ones that ensure that btc can never go to zero.
Keep on believing brothers.