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This is more or less me siding with you JJG and against trading.
When I provide variations on your examples, I am not really disagreeing with your examples, even though I think that I still made my point that extremes do not need to be considered in order to show greatly stupendous profits that errored on the side of mostly holding and accumulating until reaching a certain coin stash size that would then allow to transition into a stage that allows more selling, yet not necessarily so much selling as to devolve into trying to trade.
I know a lot of guys just cannot get out of a trading mindset, even when they are talking about skimming off profits at various points along the way.
But in either case getting in during 2010 to 2016 was very important along with believing that BTC would grow over 100k.
There were surely considerable stair-steppening upwardly in Bitcoin's price in 2013 and in 2017, so getting in prior to either of those stair-steppening periods was a great benefit.
We likely have stair-steppenings in 2021 and perhaps more in the future, yet we cannot conclude about stair-steppenings when we are still either somewhat in the middle to them or still too close to them, such as the 2021 stair-steppening that will likely show in the history books once we pass a bit more time bouncing around and finding out where we end up.
Any one that got in during 2010 to 2016 got coins from pennies to 1300 usd. Just hold those coins till 100k became a large score.
You are still talking like a trader rather than like an investor, and sure you can do what you like - even though part of my theory is that the investor can end up milking way the hell more out of their bitcoin holdings as compared with the trader.. and perhaps @Biodom is more of an investor than me, since he wants to never sell his bitcoin.. yet for practical purposes, sometimes managing our coins by something like sustainable withdrawal can also work out, even though admittedly more tax consequences (that are not likely to go away very soon).
^ The four year cycle hadn’t been demonstrated yet in 2013. That was the first data point. It became obvious what was happening by 2017, so it took me around 5 years in Bitcoin to figure it out.
Perhaps you are making progress to admit those kinds of things rather than being such a dick all the time, when you were proclaiming to be a BIG baller and advising people as a "professional" for the past 15 years.
I cannot say for sure if trading is going to end up working out in the future, yet guys who did not error on the side of mostly accumulating and holding were likely not to do as well as those who did.. which are shown from my examples of a guy who spent $2k to accumulate 200 bitcoin between mid-2011 and early-2013.
By the way, when I came to bitcoin in late 2013, there was already a lot of talk about hypecycles and even 4 year cycles, so cycle theory was not foreign or absent.
I do find it interesting that the people who are “against trading” were fine setting up ladder trades and selling in the 40s when I told them not to,
Oh? It looks like I was too soon to imply your humbleness.
I don't set up "trade" ladders. My ladders are to offset volatility and potentially prepare for down that might or might not happen, so initially in 2015 I had been selling something like 10% for every doubling, yet these days it is probably closer to less than 3%... which is likely my own problem to have had been gravitating towards lower and lower sell amounts.
Anyhow, I have had my system in place since late-ish 2015, and it is working fine, even though I had made a few mistakes from time to time.
I have not been setting up additional sell ladders that are different from various formulas that I established in 2015, even though I have been tweaking some of the formals from time to time at various points along the way and surely from time to time, I had to make some adjustments to the increments, spreads and even percentages.. in order to attempt to get to a place that i considered to be comfortable for me.
So when you were supposedly telling guys to not have trade ladders (well I don't do trade ladders) when we were going through the $40ks was that on the 1st round, or the 2nd or the 3rd time that we went through the $40ks? so far?
And what the fuck do you know about ladders? You are presuming them to be trade ladders in my case, and I had already said that I don't trade.
Yeah we can argue about semantics, but what is the point?
Do you think that guys are selling 5% of our stash every time the BTC price goes up 20% or what do you think is happening? Sure there can be all kinds of formals that guys can work out to be comfortable.
And what is the purpose of the ladder? Is it to try to buy back cheaper on the drop or for what reason is the ladder in place? Do you have any clue beyond merely thinking that everyone is trading like you or that no one has reached overaccumualtion status?
By the way, if you reach overaccumulation status then buying more (accumulating more) has become optional. Guys in overaccumulation status are not necessarily trying to accumulate more bitcoin.
And, who the fuck cares what you think about ladders or if the BTC price might keep going up or not. The ladders can be arranged in ways to account for the possibility that the BTC price goes up and never, ever, ever returns back down.. The sell ladders can already account for those matters that the price does not come back down, so there can be an assumption that is built in that the money just becomes available at a certain point (whether immediately or after a certain quantity of time, such as months or even years or maybe based on subsequent price movements where it appears unlikely for the BTC price to come back down to the price that the BTC had been sold).
Several aspects of the ways that I consider ladders can be seen on
my price-based post in my sustainable withdrawal thread.
and were buying with ladders on the way down from $120K when I told them not to,
Now, you sound like you are specifically talking about me.
I am thinking that if you had been more like me in your bitcoin journey then you would not have had to worry about trading, yet your lack of knowledge that you supposedly figured out in 2017 was not about how dumb you had been for trading bitcoin between 2011 to 2017, but instead, the lesson that you learned was to trade in a supposedly "smarter" way, and so perhaps you think that you got your trading all figured out?
I am pretty sure that you still would have had been better off to invest into bitcoin from 2018 until now rather than trading based on your having had supposedly figured out the cycle. I think that I already had given you an example of where a guy would have had been at if he had been largely buying and holding since early 2018 rather than trading.
Nonetheless you are trying to proclaim that your newly discovered cycle trading approach would have had beaten such a buying and holding person? I have my doubts.
What kind of a budget should we start with in 2018? How many bitcoin does the guy have? how many dollars does he have and what is the income that he has coming in?
I am thinking that the guy has hardly any bitcoin in the beginning of 201. Perhaps 1 or 2 bitcoin since he blew his whole wadd in 2017.
So maybe such a guy would be cash rich at that time. I also don't know what kind of an income. Probably not a great income since the guy seems to continue to involve himself in trying to scam members.
I had already done this. But we could have had the guy selling around 250 bitcoin in the $3k territories? That would be $750k, 2 bitcoin and let's say some kind of a $50k-ish per year job.
Ok. So I would suggest that the $50k job will justify buying bitcoin at about $200 per week. We just have to think about what to do with the $750k. Surely there would be reluctance to buy back the bitcoin since the price had gone up around 6x from the place where we sold them.
I am not saying it is an easy problem that you put yourself in by selling way too much too soon... rather than if you had mostly just hung onto the 250 BTC and sold them at various increments and perhaps still had more than 60% of your coins by the time the 2017 top had played itself out.
or are selling 4% every year even in down markets when I tell them not to… but I sell the top once every four years and suddenly I’m the trader for cashing out massive gains.
My system allows selling 10% of the 200-WMA value with downward adjustments to the limits that start once the BTC price is below 25% above the 200-WMA.
The fact that limits are there does not mean that they need to be reached... although I do have a couple of accounts that are selling no matter what within the formula.. .but yeah, around 4%.. those are largely charitable accounts... even though the beneficiaries end up getting value from the bitcoin and they may or may not end up selling.. .even if the bitcoin had ended up transferring to accounts owned by someone else.
I also don't know why I need to continue to repeat that if a guy is in overaccumulation status, then he does not need to worry about the price, even though my tools allows for extra selling when the BTC price is way higher than the 200-WMA and it lessens the withdrawal authorizations when the BTC price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA (the formulas can be seen at the
bottom of the sustainable withdrawal website).
You and JJG are the traders phil… I’m an investor.
hahahahaha.
I frequently tell people that traders will label themselves and their activities as investment and confuse the concept of investment versus trading, and surely "we" are witnessing "in the wild" a trader trying to characterize himself as an investor.
you are just trying to sew confusion OgNasty, rather than really trying to help any member.
You think that there is some exact schedule that guys need to follow to get the most out of their BTC? Or do we just need to follow you and subscribe to a membershipn so that you can tell us when to buy and/or to sell?
Actually, JJG only sells BTC, so he’s not really a Bitcoin trader, more like a Bitcoin traitor.
You are right that I have been trying to graduate towards my liquidation phase of my bitcoin journey (and it seems that I have been trying to do this for years, with limited success), and it seems that getting to liquidation phase or even sustainable withdrawal status surely is one of the privileges of reaching overaccumulation status. I have no reason to repent if I consider myself to largely be in such an overaccumulation status.
For some reason between late 2014 and late 2016, I had considered myself to have had been mostly in maintenance status, yet I did recall injecting more capital into bitcoin from time to time. I also had some periods that I had injected more capital into bitcoin since 2017 and thereafter.. yet those later occasions of injecting additional capital were not very frequent except in 2022, when I did purposefully inject more value into bitcoin for something like 6 months since I had largely run out of money from the BTC price going more than 10% below the 200WMA. .Remember that in around November 2022, the BTC price had got all the way down to 35% below the 200-WMA.. and perhaps my additional injections of cash had lasted something like 6 months during that time.
There are likely several other guys who are in similar stage in their bitcoin journey where they are not really putting extra funds into bitcoin, so for example, if some extra money were to come that was not expected. Would that get put into bitcoin or not? for me? maybe or maybe not. It is hard to resist buying on the dip when the BTC price is in a dip, even though surely buying more bitcoin has been optional for quite a while from my own bitcoin portfolio holdings management perspective. Pretty amazing to accomplish all of that with merely an assertion of more than 0.63 BTC..
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