Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Consistent hard work
Multiple seasons HODL
Blue water reward.

The guy must be around 35. Super Fit

Can you share your diet plan for others to get benefit, specially things you avoid.

Pretty sure I’m doing it wrong actually
I sport to much…. Rest to little, but I just like to sport in the morning and sometimes evening ….
I don’t eat after 19/20h and my first meal is in the morning actually noon-ish after 12/13h after sporting never before (when going to a restaurant etc then ofc it’s eating after 20h)

Only on holiday I eat different and start the day with breakfast, don’t eat much during the day bc mainly active things doing…. And eat in the evening …

But I don’t know …. I surely don’t do it properly myself, but this works for me and give me some good feeling during the day I guess that’s the most important, finding some balanced routine that’s ok for yourself

[Biodom]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)
...add 4 years: 2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)
...add 4 years: 2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)
...add 4 years: 2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)
...add 4 years: 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected
Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

If you want to argue honestly for the cycle, then you have to also include what was different this time. Bitcoin reached a massive ATH after the halving in the same year, and a weak ATH the next year. It is different, the timelines and outcomes are shifted. Due to the differences and other weird behavior, I expect also a different bear market. Probably it is the institutions that are at fault for this, but we can't predict exactly how it will be this time around because it is quite different. Maybe we are not witnessing cycle extension but cycle acceleration or shortening?

If we take October 6 of 2025 as the peak with 124k, we went down 50% already by hitting 62k as a close using Chart from Coingecko. That's 4 months.
In the previous one November 8 of 2021 as the peak with $67k, a 50% reduction of price was achieved in May of 2022 so 6 months after. But again while cycle power is diminishing, we can't compare directly and simply because each cycle had its own fuckery. Last cycle was FTX, LUNA, lending platforms and other shit.

In the previous cycle, using the data from the same source to be consistent, we've seen a bottom of $16k on daily close down from that $67k so around a 76% reduction. There is also somewhat a diminishing percentage in reduction. So here are the scenarios using 124k a the peak:
50% down would be $62k.
60% down would be $49600.
70% down would be $37200.
76% down would be $29760.
80% down would be $24800.

If the bottom of the whole period or cycle ends at $50k that would be extremely bullish considering that the previous cycle bottom was at $16k and it should be mentioned that it happened 1 full year after the peak. Previous cycle bottom to peak was 7.8x (16k to 124k). Next cycle maybe a 4x would be nice, 50k to 200k or a bit more. It would go along with the diminishing returns, but great numbers still.


Also remember people, CPI numbers are coming in hot next week!

just a comment: where did 124K come from?
i think it was somewhere between 126K and 126.27K. I have no clue where it was on bitstamp that people like to reference...hopefully it was not 124K as it would be just WRONG! I think adjusting the numbers to at least 126K would be proper...EDIT: upon an additional check, Bitstamp's ATH was at 126272.

[cAPSLOCK]

buddy has been up and down and around. So I am making him a brisket and goat cheese taco .


here is the brisket.

Mmm, fresh cube brisket.

That's probably delicious.

Wait, that actually is brisket isn't it? Just sliced so well it looked like it had a pattern on it.

But do they still make cube steak anymore?

And if so, I wonder what it's like if you slow cook it?

I think some soft little cube steak chunks could drop right into one of my ramens

That is 14.5 hours cooked at 185 the red is tomato sauce.

I use a dry rub of garlic powder ,onion powder,pink salt,rosemary

Then pour some plain sauced tomatoes over it.


Place in a Lasgna pan cover that with aluminum foil.

Making sure the foil does not touch the sauce.

Cook for 14.5 hours at 190f

Prep is under 10 minutes

House smells great all night long as it cooks.

Slicing is done with a large meat fork and knife.

Since is soooooo very tender it slices easy peasy. Spacing is done by using the meat fork prongs.
  
@|  @|    this would be the fork holes and two slices

Then move the fork

@|@|@            make a slice

@|@|@|@    make a slice

Does this about 24 times


@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|


And with @ fork hole and with | the slice spacing is very easy

Takes 5 minutes but the slices look good for a photo.

This is fabulous... and very similar cooking to how I do it in my little pellet smoker.  I start lower... like 180 and then creep up to 225 over about the same amount of hours.  Cook to internal ~200.  It will have a huge smoke ring and an amazing bark...

I do all sorts of different rubs, but will excitedly try your preparation.  garlic, onion, salt and/or rosemary all often make their way into my rubs.

I have also done one in a Sous Vide and finished on a cast iron griddle thingy...  Was actually amazing.  Thing about brisket is just to take all the time to do it.  Then it is the best.


But many of mine are classic Texas style and would have the pepper you do not love.

[Biodom]

2012 (halving) ---> end of 2013 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2013 @ $1,163)
...add 4 years: 2016 (halving) ---> end of 2017 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Dec. 2017 @ $19,666)
...add 4 years: 2020 (halving) ---> end of 2021 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Nov. 2021 @ $69,000)
...add 4 years: 2024 (halving) ---> end of 2025 (ATH)   ✓ Done   (Oct. 2025 @ $126,272)
...add 4 years: 2028 (halving) ---> end of 2029 (ATH)   Projected
Can it be any clearer? The 4-year cycles do exist, as demonstrated above in full glory. This is undeniable.

If you want to argue honestly for the cycle, then you have to also include what was different this time. Bitcoin reached a massive ATH after the halving in the same year, and a weak ATH the next year. It is different, the timelines and outcomes are shifted. Due to the differences and other weird behavior, I expect also a different bear market. Probably it is the institutions that are at fault for this, but we can't predict exactly how it will be this time around because it is quite different. Maybe we are not witnessing cycle extension but cycle acceleration or shortening?

If we take October 6 of 2025 as the peak with 124k, we went down 50% already by hitting 62k as a close using Chart from Coingecko. That's 4 months.
In the previous one November 8 of 2021 as the peak with $67k, a 50% reduction of price was achieved in May of 2022 so 6 months after. But again while cycle power is diminishing, we can't compare directly and simply because each cycle had its own fuckery. Last cycle was FTX, LUNA, lending platforms and other shit.

In the previous cycle, using the data from the same source to be consistent, we've seen a bottom of $16k on daily close down from that $67k so around a 76% reduction. There is also somewhat a diminishing percentage in reduction. So here are the scenarios using 124k a the peak:
50% down would be $62k.
60% down would be $49600.
70% down would be $37200.
76% down would be $29760.
80% down would be $24800.

If the bottom of the whole period or cycle ends at $50k that would be extremely bullish considering that the previous cycle bottom was at $16k and it should be mentioned that it happened 1 full year after the peak. Previous cycle bottom to peak was 7.8x (16k to 124k). Next cycle maybe a 4x would be nice, 50k to 200k or a bit more. It would go along with the diminishing returns, but great numbers still.


Also remember people, CPI numbers are coming in hot next week!

Sorry, 4X (from 50 to 200) would be terrible, because if cycles continue, it would go back to 70K again by 2030, negating almost a decade.
Cycles have to break NOW and we should have a semi-continuous adoption run...for real.
EDIT: 60% down would also be inconsistent with the previous values and indicate the partial breakdown of the cycle "math".

[BitHodlers]

Sorry, 4X (from 50 to 200) would be terrible, because if cycles continue, it would go back to 70K again by 2030, negating almost a decade.

It would be terrible, why? Aren't we in agreement that as assets mature and become huge in market cap that there are diminishing returns? Even if the cycles are no longer a thing anymore, we could compare 4 year periods just to have a reference. So you expect the next time around the gains to be the same or even higher? This time we did a bit less than 2x ATH to ATH.

Cycles have to break NOW and we should have a semi-continuous adoption run...for real.

Have to and now seem very strong words, but I also expect the cycle stuff to break relatively soon or maybe it already broke. 2026 will confirm the continuation or a break from the cycle stuff.

EDIT: 60% down would also be inconsistent with the previous values and indicate the partial breakdown of the cycle "math".

The previous cycles show a slow reduction on the down side as well, why would this break things down? A decrease from 76% down to 60% down seems consistent with diminishing upside and downside. Please elaborate on your thoughts, thank you.

[philipma1957]

buddy has been up and down and around. So I am making him a brisket and goat cheese taco .


here is the brisket.

Mmm, fresh cube brisket.

That's probably delicious.

Wait, that actually is brisket isn't it? Just sliced so well it looked like it had a pattern on it.

But do they still make cube steak anymore?

And if so, I wonder what it's like if you slow cook it?

I think some soft little cube steak chunks could drop right into one of my ramens

That is 14.5 hours cooked at 185 the red is tomato sauce.

I use a dry rub of garlic powder ,onion powder,pink salt,rosemary

Then pour some plain sauced tomatoes over it.


Place in a Lasgna pan cover that with aluminum foil.

Making sure the foil does not touch the sauce.

Cook for 14.5 hours at 190f

Prep is under 10 minutes

House smells great all night long as it cooks.

Slicing is done with a large meat fork and knife.

Since is soooooo very tender it slices easy peasy. Spacing is done by using the meat fork prongs.
  
@|  @|    this would be the fork holes and two slices

Then move the fork

@|@|@            make a slice

@|@|@|@    make a slice

Does this about 24 times


@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|@|


And with @ fork hole and with | the slice spacing is very easy

Takes 5 minutes but the slices look good for a photo.

This is fabulous... and very similar cooking to how I do it in my little pellet smoker.  I start lower... like 180 and then creep up to 225 over about the same amount of hours.  Cook to internal ~200.  It will have a huge smoke ring and an amazing bark...

I do all sorts of different rubs, but will excitedly try your preparation.  garlic, onion, salt and/or rosemary all often make their way into my rubs.

I have also done one in a Sous Vide and finished on a cast iron griddle thingy...  Was actually amazing.  Thing about brisket is just to take all the time to do it.  Then it is the best.


But many of mine are classic Texas style and would have the pepper you do not love.

pepper is complex. But it is often used to hide off tasting food.

SO if I go hot I add various sauces or peppers after the meat or fish is cooked.

I do not cook it into the meat.

I have done just salt and some filtered water.
I have done just salt rosemary and filtered water
I have done just salt and powdered onion and filtered water.

The water sits in the pan about a cup.

Temps 185 go to 190.  14-16 hours  common times and temps.

Depends on size of brisket.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Sorry, 4X (from 50 to 200) would be terrible, because if cycles continue, it would go back to 70K again by 2030, negating almost a decade.

It would be terrible, why? Aren't we in agreement that as assets mature and become huge in market cap that there are diminishing returns? Even if the cycles are no longer a thing anymore, we could compare 4 year periods just to have a reference. So you expect the next time around the gains to be the same or even higher? This time we did a bit less than 2x ATH to ATH.

Cycles have to break NOW and we should have a semi-continuous adoption run...for real.

Have to and now seem very strong words, but I also expect the cycle stuff to break relatively soon or maybe it already broke. 2026 will confirm the continuation or a break from the cycle stuff.

EDIT: 60% down would also be inconsistent with the previous values and indicate the partial breakdown of the cycle "math".

The previous cycles show a slow reduction on the down side as well, why would this break things down? A decrease from 76% down to 60% down seems consistent with diminishing upside and downside. Please elaborate on your thoughts, thank you.

1. It's time for bitcoin to mature and start producing consistent growth. Maybe cycles would be a -30-40% maximum going forward or so and maybe 25% growth per year on average.
2. -52% is enough and it would break the cycle because the cyclists expectation is -70% this cycle (if the pattern of previous declines continues unimpeded).
3. If you model both continuing 2x reduction in a cycle price increases (from 17X to 8X to 4X (projected) to 2X (further projected), etc, with declines dropping each time by 5-6%, then you would be soon running bitcoin price downwards in the duration of the full cycle. I suggest to run that prediction...I did and it is not good.
4. Hence, my conclusion that bitcoin has basically two choices: continue cycles as they were before and wither...or start growing more consistently. That said, if you want to still think of cycles when bitcoin would drop 20-30 or even 40% sometimes, I have no problem with that. 70%, though, AND progressive reduction of the upside, and it would wither.

[BitHodlers]

1. It's time for bitcoin to mature and start producing consistent growth. Maybe cycles would be a -30-40% maximum going forward or so and maybe 25% growth per year on average.

With that I won't argue, I do want it to stop the cycle stuff in the current form. It would validate that it has made progress in maturity.

2. -52% is enough and it would break the cycle because the cyclists expectation is -70% this cycle (if the pattern of previous declines continues unimpeded).

So you think that we have already hit the bottom with what happened? Well I threw it out there in that post, maybe we are witnessing cycle acceleration. 2026 will show us where we stand with many of these theories relating to the cycles.

3. If you model both continuing 2x reduction in a cycle price increases (from 17X to 8X to 4X (projected) to 2X (further projected), etc, with declines dropping each time by 5-6%, then you would be soon running bitcoin price downwards in the duration of the full cycle. I suggest to run that prediction...I did and it is not good.

I think they are mistaken to expect only a drop by 5-6%. The reductions in increase aren't exactly precise and that expectation does not factor in any kind of maturing, but on the increases they expect diminishing returns due to maturing. I would be fine with a maximum drop of 60% which would be a decrease by 16 points. In the next cycle we could get already to your maximum 40% this way. While we do have many improvements in liquidity and long-term oriented investors now, we still have many issues with manipulations, leverage trading, paper Bitcoin and things like this. We could see this as one of the many current battlefields for Bitcoin. But if we manage to have things differently just once, it would be a huge milestone and would continue to decrease the probability of existential risks to Bitcoin. As more people see it as a store of value, fiat escape, or whatever other utility the derive, for the long-term then our chances get better.

4. Hence, my conclusion that bitcoin has basically two choices: continue cycles as they were before and wither...or start growing more consistently. That said, if you want to still think of cycles when bitcoin would drop 20-30 or even 40% sometimes, I have no problem with that. 70%, though, AND progressive reduction of the upside, and it would wither.

How about $200k by next Monday?    

[JayJuanGee]

og has a more or less standard size 6 inch cock

Damnit phil… I already have a libel lawyer on retainer. I won’t stay soft on this level of slander.

If someone were to call you an asshole and you really happen to be a true to the word real asshole, then how is the libel lawyer going to help you out of that particular predicament?

I am having some difficulties imagining some bad things that a member of a lovey dovey forum like this here one might end up saying about you that would rise to the level of libelous, yet I could imagine you engaging in behaviors to harass members with bullshit and frivolous legal papers and drama, since you have been a pretty scammy, scummy and disingenuine person at various points, at least in hisorical aspects of your forum participation.

[edited out] 

just a comment: where did 124K come from?
i think it was somewhere between 126K and 126.27K. I have no clue where it was on bitstamp that people like to reference...hopefully it was not 124K as it would be just WRONG! I think adjusting the numbers to at least 126K would be proper...EDIT: upon an additional check, Bitstamp's ATH was at 126272.

For the last several months.. maybe since around September, ChartBuddy has been telling us the ATH every hour on the hour.

Go figure?

Instead?  Let's fight against the reference just to sew unnecessary confusion and ambiguity, right?

[BTCETFInvestor]

Strategy is getting ready to purchase more Bitcoin - potentially large amount!

Strategy already holds 713,502 Bitcoin, representing 3.4% of total supply at $76,052 average purchase price.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

[edited out]  

just a comment: where did 124K come from?
i think it was somewhere between 126K and 126.27K. I have no clue where it was on bitstamp that people like to reference...hopefully it was not 124K as it would be just WRONG! I think adjusting the numbers to at least 126K would be proper...EDIT: upon an additional check, Bitstamp's ATH was at 126272.

For the last several months.. maybe since around September, ChartBuddy has been telling us the ATH every hour on the hour.

Go figure?

Instead?  Let's fight against the reference just to sew unnecessary confusion and ambiguity, right?

Hmmm...who is fighting? I am fine with the Bitstamp number (126272)...I think it was clear.

[philipma1957]

We don't need 200k by Monday.

But we are in trouble basically mining has serious issues which has been reflected by the following diff moves.

154.97 nov   7
152.27 nov 21
149.30 dec   6
148.19 dec 20
148.25 Jan   5 this tiny gain was made by around 6 blocks made right at the end in under 20 minutes
146.47 Jan 19
141.66 Jan 31
125.86 Feb  8.  This big loss was in part due to the big cold snap shutting off power bigly.


The real numbers would be different. With out the superlucky blocks made near Jan1 or  the cold snap

We would be a perfect set of drops of around 2%

I
Know we will very likely have a big jump this time  but it will be false hope unless it is huge.

Ie back to 140 or more.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

silver is over 81 still clocking the race of silver against btc over 71k

silver to 100 an oz

btc to 100k usd

Super Bowl ended not much of a game.

did some pushups will now hit the bike.

hmm maybe I can look like the dude in 1 year. (ha!)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

We don't need 200k by Monday.
But we are in trouble basically mining has serious issues which has been reflected by the following diff moves.
154.97 nov   7
152.27 nov 21
149.30 dec   6
148.19 dec 20
148.25 Jan   5 this tiny gain was made by around 6 blocks made right at the end in under 20 minutes
146.47 Jan 19
141.66 Jan 31
125.86 Feb  8.  This big loss was in part due to the big cold snap shutting off power bigly.

The real numbers would be different. With out the superlucky blocks made near Jan1 or  the cold snap

We would be a perfect set of drops of around 2%
I
Know we will very likely have a big jump this time  but it will be false hope unless it is huge.

Ie back to 140 or more.

Why does it matter?  Every two weeks there is a difficulty adjustment.

I have heard of some ways to attempt to game the hashrate and the difficulty adjustment, but if the difficulty adjustments continue to happen, then whatever is the hashrate will be adjusted and the miners can decide if they are staying or going (presumptively mostly based on profitability or not), there is no reason that the hash rate from the high (of 154.97 nov   7) could cut down 75% and there would still be enough hashing power since the blocks are coming on average of every 10 minutes whether the hashrate is going up, going down or going sideways.  

So if the hashing power and the difficulty continues to go down, then it might even be better to have more miners to be able to mine at profits, since dropping of the difficulty presumptively allows lower powered machines to be able to increase their odds of finding a block, and therefore if more miners can mine, then the mining would have potentials to be more spread out rather than consolidated into a few mining pools or a few industrial mining sites.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com