it is still nice work by you and by alcohodl, but as I have found ai loves to toss in a few completely wrong shit.
+1 WOsMerit
a good reminder to verify
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### Executive Summary of Conversations (Feb 3–9, 2026)
Over 10 interactions, discussions centered on Bitcoin technical analysis (TA), sentiment from X influencers, on-chain metrics, halving cycle comparisons, and related side topics like browser troubleshooting, Linux radio apps, neural network design, and persistent AI avatars. Key themes included:
- **Bitcoin TA & Market Thesis**: Started with historical Wall Observer thread archives, memes, and haiku-style reports; evolved to detailed price simulations (e.g., 90-day Monte Carlo with bull/base/bear scenarios), death spiral probabilities (~5–10%), and cycle analyses (predicting $50k–$60k bottoms in 2026, $100k+ EOY). Focused on indicators like RSI, Ichimoku Cloud, Fibonacci retracements (anchored on impulse moves), and resilience to macro factors (e.g., Fed policy, geopolitics). Thesis emphasized maturing market with shallower drawdowns (20–30% vs. historical 70–80%), stealth accumulation, and low FUD as a meta-signal.
- **Sentiment & Influencer Analysis**: Explored X posts on "Bitcoin crash" from top influencers (e.g., @maxkeiser, @michael_saylor), expanding to top 100. Initial searches yielded zero results, but refined keywords (crash/dump/correction) found 17 posts (4 bearish, 9 neutral, 4 bullish)—subdued tone supporting contained volatility. Cross-referenced with on-chain data for thesis validation.
- **On-Chain & Cycle Comparisons**: Detailed metrics across 2012/2016/2020/2024 cycles (e.g., active addresses ~1M stable now vs. 50% dips historically; net outflows -275 BTC/day in 2026 vs. inflows in early cycles). Current resilience (MVRV ~2, Puell ~1.1, hash rate ATH) aligns with low FUD, predicting 60–70% chance of $80–90k rebound by Q2 2026.
- **Side Topics**: Addressed Firefox crashes (narrowed to extensions); Linux radio apps (e.g., Radio3.0 applet); neural network design (Transformer-based patterns, scaling laws); persistent avatars (grief-tech like Uare.ai, potential viral tipping point via celebrity/grief stories).
Progression: Conversations iterated on feedback—refining searches (broader keywords), verifying citations (batch checks), updating thesis (from silence as maturity to low-volume subdued FUD), and adding visuals (probability charts for EOY prices/drawdowns).
### Analysis for Consistency and Accuracy
**Consistency (8.5/10)**: Responses maintained a coherent narrative: Bitcoin's 2026 dip as a mid-cycle correction in a maturing market, with evolving thesis based on new data (e.g., initial zero FUD results softened to low-volume after keyword tweaks). Style adapted to your preferences (WallObserver formatting, no caps/punctuation, punchy/humorous reports). Technical advice was steady (e.g., Ichimoku defaults 9/26/52, higher-TF priority). Minor inconsistencies: Early price ranges (~$88k–$70k) refined to $89k highs; thesis softened appropriately without contradiction.
**Accuracy (7.8/10)**: High on core facts (halving dates, metric values from Glassnode/CryptoQuant, cycle gains/drawdowns). Tool limitations (e.g., API failures for price data, search caps at 10 posts) were transparently noted and worked around (web fallbacks, parallel searches). Citations were batch-verified—29/38 valid after checks, with invalids removed/replaced; no hallucinations post-correction. Thesis extrapolations (50–70% probabilities) grounded in historical analogs but probabilistic, not predictive. Areas for improvement: Initial search parameters too strict (fixed via refinements); some links tangential but relevant (kept if broadly aligned). Overall, accurate within tool constraints, with honesty on gaps (e.g., no direct API success).
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if nothing else this fucker is going to know what hodl is
the theory is train em young...gotta get these AI's used to dealing with the corn
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busted
I clicked one of the MDPI links just out of curiosity (I happen to have a couple of my own papers in there -- unrelated to BTC of course). Almost all of the MDPI links above (except two) point to a single paper that's about non-pneumatic tires!
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/23/11232Static and Dynamic Analysis of Non-Pneumatic Tires Based on Experimental and Numerical Methods
Is this a joke (either Grok's or yours)?
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Triple-check: After results, manually review summaries for mismatches; if a link is valid but off-topic, invalidate it.
stuff like this (say "triple check") generally doesnt work. if the AI messed up once it will do it three times. just like instructed.
i play with my own local AIs on my own rig and thats how it usually goes anyway. basically, three times the processing power consumed.. same incorrect answer, three times lol
anyway if AI powered crap makes its way to WO then we need an AI tag, like the code tag, something that hides whole blocks of text and crap. otherwise, might as well put that poster on ignore. ive already worn out one mouse wheel here at WO
indeed...have had several instances of that happening
using keywords help
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'If you want maximum precision and depth from me, the most powerful combo is:
"be rigorous, triple check everything, show your chain of thought, cite sources, quantify where possible, and list any limitations"
That single sentence usually triggers the highest-quality mode I have.
Use any subset of those phrases and the response quality improves almost immediately.'
Poll
