Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

It's mind boggling to me to present the cycle as a choice and not as an emergent property based on coded rules which aren't going to change anytime soon and mass psychology likewise.

The simple truth is that while Bitcoin has not found its final value, it will be volatile and while the halving is still significant, it will be a major driver in that volatility.

Well said. Code doesn't care about our feelings. It's a simple, hard fact, that Bitcoin production is halved every 4 years. This is bound to have a significant (albeit diminishing), predictable impact on price, whether we like it or not. We can either understand this fact and use it to our advantage, or ignore it. Time will tell, as it has been telling us for the last 14 years.

Whatever happens, HoDLers are unaffected, so sit back, relax and enjoy the show.

[philipma1957]

r.i.p.


"Jerry Kennedy, the legendary Nashville session guitarist and producer whose playing helped define hits for Bob Dylan, Roy Orbison and countless country icons, has died at 85."

Note this is from red news nation

Bob Dylan is fine

but they click bait title.

https://rednewsnation.com/2026/02/13/acclaimed-bob-dylan-musician-dies-at-85/


all of us have likely heard Jerry play in the background on many songs.



this post is an example of how to google search and go past clickbait titles

[cAPSLOCK]

Dang. Yeah, I'm actually probably more of a fan of him than Dylan.  What a great life to have lived. I bet it was crazy, interesting.  I know some of it from my own life but just a flicker of a shadow of a hangnail.

[cAPSLOCK]

Okay, I don't want to be negative, but I just felt like you guys all needed to be with me in this moment when I see yet again that the universe is just simply broken.

]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[STT]

I'm thinking your Dishwasher is extremely smart and within some feedback loop depending on the quality of water in the cycle, it will extend while its still dirty/unfiltered.   That or I got bad news and the pump is struggling some because I recognize that kind of eternal attempt, get your stethoscope out  


How recent was this poll because Im loving the optimism in contrast to the chart right now  I'm going to find 3d specs but I think Buddy is bullish.  
  My take is we're in the giants footstep from a week ago, engulfing price but also volume.  Its not especially defined itself outside that range yet.   It jumped about like that because it hit bottom, I have that point down as the negative trend going back to October but we are above it.
  Its a weak recovery, I read we are slipped below the volume weighted average from that low.  On price alone I have us positive on the week vs a moving average, my take is positive but its unproven and very much a flickering flame in the wind right now.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

yeah even at 65k going from about 1.52 to 2.0 will not be easy to do. the mines will add around 0.0011 a day for 315 days or .34 btc maybe less that means .34 + 1.52 = 1.84
I still need to buy at least .16 coins along with the mining to go over 2.0 coins.

I could front load that right now if I want as it would be the rest of the silver sales. .16 is about 11,000 bucks

I surely don't mind the idea of front loading, yet historically whenever I employed frontloading, I would make sure that I had additional funds available to continue to be able to buy if the BTC price dips further, whether that would be time-based buying (such as weekly as more money might come available) or price based dip buying, in which I would hold certain quantities of dollars to be prepared for certain dip levels that may or may not end up happening... so I personally tend to prefer frontloading only if there is abilities to supplement.

Let's say for example, I had been buying $100 per week for 2 years, and so I am feeling pretty good to have had put $10,400 into bitcoin and I had accumulated 0.13 BTC - even though right now, i would be around 20% underwater.. yet I still feel pretty good about my situation.

And, then let's say all of a sudden I receive some kind of extra cash (around $5.1k) that came from a work bonus or inheritance or perhaps some kind sale of some goods (silver that I had not expected to sell), so then all of a sudden I have right around 1 year's worth of value that I need to decide whether to 1) DCA, 2) buy right away and/or 3) to buy on dips.  Perhaps the default position would be to just allocate $1.7k to each of the three categories, yet of course, we have agency in these kinds of matters, so we might be feeling that we would prefer to front load most of it, since in the case of a lump sum, then DCA is deferral based on time, and buying on dips is deferral based on prices that might not come.. yet if I immediately decided that I was going to put $3.4k into buying right away, perhaps $1.13k for each of the next three weeks, then maybe I would save the other $1.6k for either buying on dips and/or DCA... and of course, these are not easy decisions, so sometimes lumping the money in certain categories can help to guide..

And of course, it seems to me that a guy who had ONLY been buying for a couple of years, he might be expecting that he is at least going to be buying at least another 2 more years or longer, yet how much a guy buys in the beginning can surely affect his way of viewing what he might need to do.

Maybe a guy who had invested nearly 2 years of his salary into bitcoin over the past two years, he might be feeling a bit fucked, because he really front loaded, but he is still around 20% under water currently, yet it still seems to me that in the early stages, guys likely need to continue to prepare to continue to buy bitcoin, even though surely it can be difficult for guys who are older and who might not have at least a 4 year investment timeline for every time that they put additional money into bitcoin.

There are of course, guys who disagree with my approaches to bitcoin investing, and what I consider to be somewhat urgent needs for guys to establish their bitcoin position early, perhaps within their first 4 years, yet surely I also understand that if a guy might be young in his career (let's say in his mid-20s), then he might be making more and more money with th passage of years, so his present income might not give him a lot of income, yet he expects to get increases in his income in the future (including through promotions), yet even those kinds of guys might not really be in a position to aggressively invest in bitcoin with whatever income levels that they have, so it could take them more than 8 years to really start to establish a decent bitcoin position, even if they might be able to invest something like 15% or more of their income into bitcoin. 

And I personally consider abilities to invest 15% or more of income into bitcoin to be fairly aggressive and not always easy to achieve, even though surely there are some guys who are able to invest 25% or so into bitcoin on a consistent basis, so you have to figure that guys who are able to invest 25% of their income into bitcoin, then they are able to invest 1 year's income into bitcoin every 4 years, which surely would be a fairly aggressive investment approach that only a limited number of guys can consistently keep up those levels of investment amounts.. including that they likely need to keep decent amounts of back up funds on hand too, such as 3 months of their expenses, since if they are investing into bitcoin with such aggressiveness, then they likely need strong back up funds in place, too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

It's mind boggling to me to present the cycle as a choice and not as an emergent property based on coded rules which aren't going to change anytime soon and mass psychology likewise.

The simple truth is that while Bitcoin has not found its final value, it will be volatile and while the halving is still significant, it will be a major driver in that volatility.

It's mind boggling to me too to think that 450 bitcoins per day (current value of $31 mil) could affect the market that trades 42 billions (today so far).
How, exactly, is it possible from the economical point of view, not some OG tales focused on the past?

The main damage from those thoughts is psychological when, instead of thinking about bitcoin as something that is growing, too much attention is being paid to the already minuscule issuance.
Imho, this matters for miners and for them alone (plus Bitmain).

That said, we might have a 30%-40% fluctuation, but we should convince the marketplace that it is NOT going to be 70%, otherwise bitcoin withers.
The trend analysis of all cycles and prior numbers associated with plunges (and the very slow % decrease in those) point to a calamity if the cycles continue exactly as before.

Have you listen lately to miners like Fred Thiel? Please, do.

TL;DR Cycle, wither and die or cycle much less (or not at all) and prosper.

[Biodom]

It's mind boggling to me to present the cycle as a choice and not as an emergent property based on coded rules which aren't going to change anytime soon and mass psychology likewise.

The simple truth is that while Bitcoin has not found its final value, it will be volatile and while the halving is still significant, it will be a major driver in that volatility.

Well said. Code doesn't care about our feelings. It's a simple, hard fact, that Bitcoin production is halved every 4 years. This is bound to have a significant (albeit diminishing), predictable impact on price, whether we like it or not. We can either understand this fact and use it to our advantage, or ignore it. Time will tell, as it has been telling us for the last 14 years.

Whatever happens, HoDLers are unaffected, so sit back, relax and enjoy the show.

Define predictable, but diminishing going forward.
I'd say it could be 50% this time, 40% next, then 30...and then it is a small ripple on the surface where the very term "cycle" loses meaning.

Let me play a scenario for you:
1. At 70% down (to 37.8K), more than 50% miners would stop producing blocks. The algorithm can handle it, but almost all non-bitcoiners would agree that this is a "death knell".
2. As a result of #1, more than 30-50% of bitcoin ETF holders would sell because ALL ETF holders would be losing money on their purchase.
3. #2 would result in a further unknown downside.
4. At some point between $20 and 30K (not at 8k), MSTR would be effectively bankrupt with a lot of dividend payments agreed to and very little equity. Who knows what desperate measures they would have to resort to.

Conclusion: bitcoin/hodlers/buyers should hold the line at whatever was already done (about 60K).

EDIT: I further surmise from your opinion of "code does not care about feeling" that in your opinion Satoshi, effectively, time-limited bitcoin to the time passed plus just a few more years because this what would happen if the cycles continue as before.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

[philipma1957]

I see this and and can tell you we are not up 11.47%

and last drop we were not down 11.15% they both need to be tossed out. due to cold weather storm


https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   936450  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   111.4759%  (1027 / 921.28 expected, 105.72 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   141668107417558.2                           
Current Difficulty:   125864590119494.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 136690852601439 and 140521710814757
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.6015% and +11.6452%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 8:42 AM  (-11.1553%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 10:07 PM  (in 6d 3h 51m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 20, 2026 at 6:26 AM  (in 6d 12h 11m 20s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 13h 24m 37s and 12d 21h 44m 5s


what we are is 141.6t dropping to at best 140.5t over the last 2 jumps.

this is a continuation of the drop since nov 2025 when we peaked at 155T



way out of skew for mining

14/155=0.909  diff

68/106= 0.642   

price reduced by a factor of 35 or 36 percent 

diff while in a steady decline is only down 9.01 percent


upgrading to newer and better gear is not going to fix the issue.

if we do not rise to 80-85k soon a mine will tap out which will be interesting to see.

this mining factor is not appreciated for what it is worth as a prop up for coin price.




I think if we ever ever ever ever go back up to 100k I will cash out .

[Biodom]

Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

...it was when upside greatly increased vs downside.
If the upside and downside are about the same, what you've got is churning.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d5000]

Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

Until people get tired of it (like it occurred in most altcoins).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

It's mind boggling to me too to think that 450 bitcoins per day (current value of $31 mil) could affect the market that trades 42 billions (today so far).
How, exactly, is it possible from the economical point of view, not some OG tales focused on the past?

Taking those numbers as true (which I have no reason to doubt), the thing is that you can't treat all those 42 billions of trade the same. The majority are just going to be traders flipping the same coins back and forth, those with sophisticated technical analysis, a bit of luck and maybe not a little manipulation stripping wealth from the scrappy chancers. The question is, how many are being bought and sequestered? Those are removed from circulation and the balance between those and issued coins is going to be the root driver (secondary effects like pricing in, FOMO and forced closing of leverage also apply, of course).

[philipma1957]

Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

...it was when upside greatly increased vs downside.
If the upside and downside are about the same, what you've got is churning.

Yep and if btc is a yo-yo for whales  it is not good for most people.

The idea you need to guess when you have to dump to make money is a fail.

Hodl hodl hodl is fine if you got in 2016 at 1000 or 800.

If you got in dec 2017 at 19k and did hodl you have 68k today.

Silver and gold are better since 2017

I know we had lows like 4k in dec 2018 and feb/march 2020

I know arguing getting in at 19k in 2017 and then a steady dca onward mean some profit.

But sooner or later cycles must end in order for btc to have motility.

Ie if BTC took off today and went to 200k in 3 months it would be really  unexpected

Also if btc dropped to 5k in 3 months it would be unexpected if it does exa try what a guy like og thinks it will btc is bullshit

It slowly go down to 40k or so an then come back in late 2027 with a new ath a month before the next 1/2ing it would be too predictable.

So for the sake of btc og needs to be way way way off his guesses.


Although it cou.d do exactly what he thinks and cycles could repeat like a yo yo which means I will have a chance to sell over 100k and likely leave my exposure of 2btc and cahs out.