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If something drops 11% and then it goes back up 11.5%, then it is not going to be back to where it was... since it would probably have to go up 23% to get back to where it was.
Think about a 50% drop. If something drops 50%, then in order to get back to where it was, it has to go up 100%. If it ONLY goes up 50%, then it would have had ONLY made it half way to where it had been.
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Your numbers work for a 50% drop --> 100% up, but not for an 11% drop --> 23% up...
If v is the value (that should remain constant), d% is the 'percent drop' and u% is the 'percent up', then math & science tells us this:
Require that v = v * (1 - d% / 100) * (1 + u% / 100). Then
(1 - d% / 100) * (1 + u% / 100) = 1 =>
1 + u% / 100 = 1 / (1 - d% / 100) =>
u% / 100 = 1 / (1 - d% / 100) - 1 =>
u% = 100 / (1 - d% / 100) - 100For a
50% drop (d% = 50) we need a u% = 100 / (1 - 50 / 100) - 100 = 100
(100% up)For an
11% drop (d% = 11) we need a u% = 100 / (1 - 11 / 100) - 100 = 12.36
(12.36% up)So, both 11.5% and 23% are wrong, but 11.5% is much closer to 12.36% than 23%.
I knew that you were too smart for me.
We are going to have to break up.
Math & science doesn't care about our feelings... LOL
💖Bot confirmed!!!!!!
You and proudhon.. . .
By the way,
proudhon has not logged in since last April. Maybe someone poured water on him?
I think if we ever ever ever ever go back up to 100k I will cash out .
I understand nothing is certain but I think
When is better than using
If. If just shows you doubt we seeeing $100K.
It seems that for the overwhelming majority of normies who have studied bitcoin for more than 100 hours, the correct word would likely be "when" rather than "if" as you mentioned.
Yet, for Philip, "if" seems to be the more accurate of representation of his thinking on the matter, since he is expressing his own thoughts that involve both ongoing lackenings of confidence and also his ongoing under appreciation for what dee cornz is - even though Philip has likely studied bitcoin for quite a bit longer than 100 hours, yet he still does not seem to get it... beyond appreciating that bitcoin is number go up technology that might not end up going up. For Philip, he might consider whether bitcoin goes up or not to be like the flip of a coin, or some random thing in which certain powers that be are able to control.. which also shows some level of ongoing errors in his assigning of values and probabilities to dee cornz within the world as we believe it to be.
Math & science doesn't care about our feelings... LOL
Neither does Bitcoin
It is true that bitcoin is a product of both maths & sciences and various ways of connecting with human behaviors and even power projection in the real world. If we are attempting to assign odds to what bitcoin might or might not do, we have to attempt to account for both aspects - to the best of our abilities, which does not necessarily mean that we understand the various influences and their balances enough to figure out outcomes such as price or even outcomes of the various network effects (within the
Trace Mayer framework), as they continue to play out..
I think if we ever ever ever ever go back up to 100k I will cash out .
I understand nothing is certain but I think
When is better than using
If. If just shows you doubt we seeeing $100K.
Bitcoin is all about if, (meaning speculating). Am not sure if anyone here is certain about Bitcoin price, however,the person who said if the of BTC gets up to $100k he will cash out is a good business man because BTC price is not certain or fixed. $100k is huge and probably he has checked how much he bought the BTC and if he cashed out he will make some profit
Surely, you don't understand bitcoin.
And, you also may well not understand the value of treating bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade.
But, hey whatever, smartie-panties, do what you like. And, potentially find out that after a couple of cycles (such as 8 years) or more that you are not able to turn back the clock, and your options in life would have had ended up much better if you were to have had treated bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade.
Some guys figure out these matters sooner than other, and some guys can never get out of their trading mindset - so their odds of actually outperforming the bitcoin investor are not likely to be good, especially if we look at repeated behaviors that might play out 2 cycles or longer.
[Cognitive Load]
I have seen JJG send 2 merits now I Can Die With Peace
LoL
Hahahaha
Greater than 1 does happen from time to time, yet you are correct in your implication that I had hesitated before changing the 1 to a 2.....
Require that v = v * (1 - d% / 100) * (1 + u% / 100). Then
(1 - d% / 100) * (1 + u% / 100) = 1 =>
1 + u% / 100 = 1 / (1 - d% / 100) =>
u% / 100 = 1 / (1 - d% / 100) - 1 =>
u% = 100 / (1 - d% / 100) - 100
For a 50% drop (d% = 50) we need a u% = 100 / (1 - 50 / 100) - 100 = 100 (100% up)
For an 11% drop (d% = 11) we need a u% = 100 / (1 - 11 / 100) - 100 = 12.36 (12.36% up)
So, both 11.5% and 23% are wrong, but 11.5% is much closer to 12.36% than 23%.
That image shows some variation of my reaction, too.
Poll
