JJG odds are not very much in favour of you and seems like you have to hand over 0.001 BTC to LFC.
Gambling is unpredictable and sometimes your luck overpowers all your planning and research.
It seems to me that bets do not necessarily come from planning and/or research, but instead anticipation of odds (and sure there could be some planning and/or research contained in the arrival at odds), so even if a person might have had assessed the odds correctly at the time of entering into the bet, the reality of the outcome does not mean that the prior assessment of the odds (at the time of the bet) was not correct.
Correct. We can do our best and results can still not be in our favour. Your assessment at the time of placing bet was best of your knowledge but now it seems like luck is in favour of LFC.
Sure, each of us likely made assessments of our odds for winning based on certain factors that we considered to be relevant, to the extent that we had complete information and/or if we were dealing with the correct factor, and so the various factors are ongoingly changing with the passage of time, and so for example, if the price was around $112k when we made the bet, then when the BTC price went down to $100k and was dabbling in those various territories the factors were continuing to change, yet the ability for a quick recovery or even to get back into upward momentum was still reasonably plausible, especially since those sub $100k conditions didn't really stick until the end of November.. .yet there was still plenty of time to recover, yet the breakouts continued to be down.. which continued to cause the odds for a rebound to become more and more difficult to achieve.
So there is no real way that any of us is going to know the breakouts in advance, and surely it could well be the case that LFC's then decreasing confidence in the erratic behaviors of world leaders (such as Trump) contributed to his having better factors within his reliance, and surely he coupled his macro-reliance factors into giving weight to the pull of the 4-year cycle.. and surely I am a fan of the 4-year cycle, but not nearly to the extent that LFC seems to be a fan of it.
It is hard to rationalize what happened or what may have happened after the fact, since what happened becomes way more relevant than what may have happened, and so as I already mentioned, the further drop below the mid $80ks in late January to early February did not help for odds of a recovery, since the odds had likely gotten into the sub 3% territories for a recovery, even in the most bullish of scenarios.. so then right now, LFC does not have luck on his side, he has the odds... and sure back in October, I would have had proclaimed him to have had gotten lucky, but it seems a bit ridiculous to be arguing about facts that have already played out, even though there are likely thousands of repeats of the same scenarios that I would have had entered into the same bet, even though sure, right now we have the advantage of hindsight, so it sounds a bit stupid for me to say that I have no regrets in my entering into the bet.. but yeah, I will wait until March 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC before I might be willing to give up on my long shot hope that a win might be possible... In other words, I am not paying early.. even though I wouldn't be worried that LFC would refund if I were to pay early and then all of a sudden the BTC price shoots above $126,272 prior to the bet deadline.
I don't go for gambling/betting. My only bet was with you, which I lost but I really like the quote about gambling which I once read "In gambling winner is the one who knows when to quit". When I lost bet to you, that was the time I decided to never bet again.
Never say never. You might find some future situations that you consider to be reasonably bettable, especially some guys will make outrageous statements that surely seem to be more than bettable.
One thing is having a sufficient enough of a disagreement that rises to the level of bettable, and another thing is figuring out some terms that might be acceptable to both parties, and surely there have been some guys in this forum (my memory is mostly in this thread) who made some pretty outrageous proposals, but then they would not stand behind their proposal, including sometimes making some outrageous requests about the bet size to largely show that they weren't really serious. There were some other guys who I have had interactions with who made some pretty outrageous assertions, yet they still did not enter a bet with me, even though they would have had ended up winning the bet. Sometimes I feel that I will need to have odds in order to really enter a bet with some members, including when I entered into the bet with you. Based on my then senses, I would not have entered in that bet with you under mere 50/50 odds, because I thought that it was way too possible that you could have had ended up being correct and the price would have had never gone below $90k ever again.. .but hey, now that we are bouncing below $90k for nearly 4 months straight.. the whole bitcoin downity price dynamics is seeming outrageous and probably dissuading some folks in regards to their wanting to continue to stay involved with bitcoin.
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