Do you want it to fall to $32k?
If yes, why would you?
I make no prediction on where it would bottom as it mostly depends on macro events now, and certainly not on a $30mil a day issuance, but it would be nice if 59.5K was it.
Unless you are trying to sell, why wouldn’t you want the price to be lower? 4-year cycle says $46K in September. That sounds like an opportunity to me. Not something to hope doesn’t happen.
I don't buy into a declining trend and i don't need to sell anything and have no desire to do so currently.
Your 46k number rhymes with cyclists' prediction of 189K in the
next cycle that I posted here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66560169#msg66560169Therefore, I was aware even before your post...and in fact I penciled (in my investment notebook) $47K as the cyclists' target based on the the followup cycle extension of about 50% (based on the diminishing returns) that corresponds to about 4X extension from the potential lows (as 4X is about half of prior 8X). 47X4=189.
That said, two other possibilities are the 70% decline (again, as expected), which gives 37-38K number and a 200wma, which is climbing and in this case (if we are not undercutting it), 59.5K was "it". The fourth number is the realized price of bitcoin, which is 54.3K. This gives someone a range of 37-60K to "work" with.
September is just a random month, no evidence for or against.
My overall conclusion is that IF "47K followed by 189k" would happen, this would indicate bitcoin doom as the next decline would bring it to 62K...and then it would NEVER recover prior peaks and would be, essentially, killed by the "cycles" as the math of diminishing returns and more steady declines shows.
However, I prefer bitcoin to deviate from the price cycles and "live", but if large bitcoin holders want it to be a "meme" and behave accordingly, then the situation would be clear.
Poll
