Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hypebrother]

Lest they forget, Hummus and Garlic Sauce are not the same.



USA and Iran agreed on a ceasefire,

Not really bright upstairs.

It does not mean Iran won.

[Biodom]

Hey WOers. I had some free time today, and thought of doing some analysis of BTC/USD historical price data, to help shed some light on the hot question of the year: do cycles exist? Yes, I had to go there again!

Source:	Bitstamp BTC/USD Historical Price Data
Sample Time:	Day (High)
From:	28 November 2014
To:	5 April 2026
Data:	Spot, 50-WMA, 200-WMA, 200-WMA (d/dx)
Method:	Normalized Autocorrelation

Here's the source data, as a standard chart:



A useful tool for detecting cycles in time-series data is autocorrelation, which basically compares the data with a copy of itself, time-shifted in multiples of the sample time (which is one day in our case). The results are normalized in the interval [-1, 1], with 1 indicating a perfect match, 0 indicating a complete mismatch, and -1 indicating a perfect opposite match (one rising, the other falling). By definition, a time shift of 0 results in a perfect match (a coefficient of 1), because we are comparing the data with an exact copy of itself. As the two data sets are gradually shifted apart in time, their correlation coefficient is expected to gradually fall to a low value close to 0, unless there are cyclic patterns (periodicities) in the data, in which case there will be one or more peaks at the periods of those cycles. In our case, we're interested in positive peak values. Any such peak indicates a distinct cycle periodicity, and the value of that periodicity can be found by looking at the corresponding time shift. There is a symmetry at time shift = 0, so everything is mirrored around the center of the graph.

Here are the autocorrelation results:



I'm performing autocorrelation on 4 different data sets: spot price, 50-WMA, 200-WMA, and 200-WMA (d/dx). The reason for taking the derivative of 200-WMA is because 200-WMA is heavily averaged and, as things currently stand, it is monotonically increasing (going up forever, Laura), which throws off autocorrelation. By differentiating it, we are essentially removing the slow-moving components, while leaving the dynamic components intact. This is a kind of high-pass filtering if you like.

We can clearly see that there is one and only one cycle periodicity detected. Yes, you've guessed it, this is the all-too-familiar (and hated by many) 4-year Halving cycle. The correlation coefficient peaks are indicated by the circles near the ±4-year time shifts, for the different types of data. To be precise, the detected cycle periodicity is slightly less than 4 years, as shown in the graph. This almost perfectly matches the past Halving timestamps:

1st Halving:	28 November 2012
2nd Halving:	9 July 2016	(after 3.61 years)
3rd Halving:	11 May 2020	(after 3.84 years)
4th Halving:	20 April 2024	(after 3.95 years)

Average time between past Halvings:	3.80 years
Spot price autocorrelation result:	3.72 years   (a near-perfect match)

So, there you have it. Some math & science for you to think about. 4-year cycles do exist. How significant will they be in the near and far future? My guess is that their effect will gradually be diminished, as the mining reward gets halved. Are cycles still relevant today? Yes, I think they are, and can still be used to our advantage. Can they predict the future with absolute certainty? No, and neither can anyone. These are just methods that help us get a tiny glimpse of a general direction, nothing more.

I hope you've found this interesting and useful in some way. Since Sparkle Fairy can only read graphs, and seeing how sad she's been feeling lately, I just had to oblige. And, please, no cyclist/anti-cyclist fighting over this post. This was made with ❤️ and is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Have fun, stack sats, HODL, stay safe out there.

Great, they existed, but does it predict anything going forward as far as periodicity is concerned?
No, it doesn't.

Example: in the 70ies there were stock market crashes in 1970, 1974 and 1978.
I guess, the stock market was on a 4 year cycle too, then.
The next one 'predicted'-1982.
Did it happen?
Absolutely not, market was up 7% in 1982 (after declining first).
It is possible that bitcoin is playing a similar trick in 2026 or will play it in 2030.
The cycles must wither or bitcoin bites the dust, eventually.
EDIT: no stock crashes in 1986, 1990, 1994 either.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, trading under the ticker MSBT, is scheduled to launch tomorrow, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. It will list on NYSE Arca, becoming the first spot Bitcoin ETF issued directly by a major U.S. bank.

Morgan Stanley has roughly 16,000 financial advisors with Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management overseeing about $8 trillion in AUM. They recommend clients have 2% to 4% Bitcoin allocation. A 2% allocation would represent $160 billion, ~3X the size of Blackrock's spot IBIT ETF.

For reference:

Total BTC Possible with $160 billion: ~$160,000,000,000 / $72,000 ≈ 2,222,222.22 BTC
Context: This represents over 10% of the maximum 21 million BTC supply.

[philipma1957]

Hey WOers. I had some free time today, and thought of doing some analysis of BTC/USD historical price data, to help shed some light on the hot question of the year: do cycles exist? Yes, I had to go there again!

Source:	Bitstamp BTC/USD Historical Price Data
Sample Time:	Day (High)
From:	28 November 2014
To:	5 April 2026
Data:	Spot, 50-WMA, 200-WMA, 200-WMA (d/dx)
Method:	Normalized Autocorrelation

Here's the source data, as a standard chart:



A useful tool for detecting cycles in time-series data is autocorrelation, which basically compares the data with a copy of itself, time-shifted in multiples of the sample time (which is one day in our case). The results are normalized in the interval [-1, 1], with 1 indicating a perfect match, 0 indicating a complete mismatch, and -1 indicating a perfect opposite match (one rising, the other falling). By definition, a time shift of 0 results in a perfect match (a coefficient of 1), because we are comparing the data with an exact copy of itself. As the two data sets are gradually shifted apart in time, their correlation coefficient is expected to gradually fall to a low value close to 0, unless there are cyclic patterns (periodicities) in the data, in which case there will be one or more peaks at the periods of those cycles. In our case, we're interested in positive peak values. Any such peak indicates a distinct cycle periodicity, and the value of that periodicity can be found by looking at the corresponding time shift. There is a symmetry at time shift = 0, so everything is mirrored around the center of the graph.

Here are the autocorrelation results:



I'm performing autocorrelation on 4 different data sets: spot price, 50-WMA, 200-WMA, and 200-WMA (d/dx). The reason for taking the derivative of 200-WMA is because 200-WMA is heavily averaged and, as things currently stand, it is monotonically increasing (going up forever, Laura), which throws off autocorrelation. By differentiating it, we are essentially removing the slow-moving components, while leaving the dynamic components intact. This is a kind of high-pass filtering if you like.

We can clearly see that there is one and only one cycle periodicity detected. Yes, you've guessed it, this is the all-too-familiar (and hated by many) 4-year Halving cycle. The correlation coefficient peaks are indicated by the circles near the ±4-year time shifts, for the different types of data. To be precise, the detected cycle periodicity is slightly less than 4 years, as shown in the graph. This almost perfectly matches the past Halving timestamps:

1st Halving:	28 November 2012
2nd Halving:	9 July 2016	(after 3.61 years)
3rd Halving:	11 May 2020	(after 3.84 years)
4th Halving:	20 April 2024	(after 3.95 years)

Average time between past Halvings:	3.80 years
Spot price autocorrelation result:	3.72 years   (a near-perfect match)

So, there you have it. Some math & science for you to think about. 4-year cycles do exist. How significant will they be in the near and far future? My guess is that their effect will gradually be diminished, as the mining reward gets halved. Are cycles still relevant today? Yes, I think they are, and can still be used to our advantage. Can they predict the future with absolute certainty? No, and neither can anyone. These are just methods that help us get a tiny glimpse of a general direction, nothing more.

I hope you've found this interesting and useful in some way. Since Sparkle Fairy can only read graphs, and seeing how sad she's been feeling lately, I just had to oblige. And, please, no cyclist/anti-cyclist fighting over this post. This was made with ❤️ and is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Have fun, stack sats, HODL, stay safe out there.

Great, they existed, but does it predict anything going forward as far as periodicity is concerned?
No, it doesn't.

Example: in the 70ies there were stock market crashes in 1970, 1974 and 1978.
I guess, the stock market was on a 4 year cycle too, then.
The next one 'predicted'-1982.
Did it happen?
Absolutely not, market was up 7% in 1982 (after declining first).
It is possible that bitcoin is playing a similar trick in 2026 or will play it in 2030.
The cycles must wither or bitcoin bites the dust, eventually.
EDIT: no crashes in 1986, 1990, 1994 either.

If I recall correctly from 1930 to 2008 the dow never had a 10 year span be down always up.

That streak ended in 2008  .

So patterns even if  over 70 years in a row can change.

Edit 1932 to 2008 a 76 year streak ended.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

One could endlessly trade ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) and never trigger a wash sale (albeit there is no wash sales rules in bitcoin yet, but as soon as Clarity/parity pair of bills pass, there would be).

It remains to be seen whether Jan 2026 or Jan 27 would be the cut off date for btc trades counting as wash trades if within a 30 day window(sometimes tax bills reach backwards).

I am not into this kind of trades, but from a tactical perspective, if your IBIT in taxable account is losing money, swapping it into MSBT would make sense (especially since the fee is slightly lower, but this only means something if you invest millions).

[Spaceman1000$]

Lest they forget, Hummus and Garlic Sauce are not the same.



USA and Iran agreed on a ceasefire,

Not really bright upstairs.

It does not mean Iran won.

Why is Iran so quick to claim victory when we all know that they are the ones on the receiving end, whatever plan or agreement they've given American to meet up, why can't they wait till everything materializes before they come to the public to sing kumbaya, because this makes me want to believe that, it is more like throwing the cat before the horse.

[BTCETFInvestor]

One could endlessly trade ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) and never trigger a wash sale (albeit there is no wash sales rules in bitcoin yet, but as soon as Clarity/parity pair of bills pass, there would be).

It remains to be seen whether Jan 2026 or Jan 27 would be the cut off date for btc trades counting as wash trades if within a 30 day window(sometimes tax bills reach backwards).

I am not into this kind of trades, but from a tactical perspective, if your IBIT in taxable account is losing money, swapping it into MSBT would make sense (especially since the fee is slightly lower, but this only means something if you invest millions).

Speaking of taxes - owning spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) provides the account owner with standard U.S. IRS 1099 reporting, making tax season significantly easier than tracking direct Bitcoin transactions.  Tax filing software can auto-import any brokerage account tax information for easy Federal return filing.    

I have three brokerage accounts; with Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo Brokerage through my Private Wealth Management Bank account. I can auto-import my brokerage information directly into tax software... I have no desire to deal with self custody of Bitcoin, wallets, cold storage, private keys, etc. Most investors don't...  

I can wire up to $5 million every 30-Days into my Fidelity or Schwab brokerage accounts from my Wells Fargo Private Bank account in less than 10 minutes. I use a highly secure RSA SecurID that is synced perfectly to 1/10 second with Wells Fargo's special RSA server, which through direct cryptographic, 'cracking' its one-time passcode (OTP) are effectively zero.
 
     

[philipma1957]

One could endlessly trade ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) and never trigger a wash sale (albeit there is no wash sales rules in bitcoin yet, but as soon as Clarity/parity pair of bills pass, there would be).

It remains to be seen whether Jan 2026 or Jan 27 would be the cut off date for btc trades counting as wash trades if within a 30 day window(sometimes tax bills reach backwards).

I am not into this kind of trades, but from a tactical perspective, if your IBIT in taxable account is losing money, swapping it into MSBT would make sense (especially since the fee is slightly lower, but this only means something if you invest millions).

Speaking of taxes - owning spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) provides the account owner with standard U.S. IRS 1099 reporting, making tax season significantly easier than tracking direct Bitcoin transactions.  Tax filing software can auto-import any brokerage account tax information for easy Federal return filing.    

I have three brokerage accounts; with Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo Brokerage through my Private Wealth Management Bank account. I can auto-import my brokerage information directly into tax software... I have no desire to deal with self custody of Bitcoin, wallets, cold storage, private keys, etc. Most investors don't...  

Reporting btc transactions is really hard to do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

One could endlessly trade ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) and never trigger a wash sale (albeit there is no wash sales rules in bitcoin yet, but as soon as Clarity/parity pair of bills pass, there would be).

It remains to be seen whether Jan 2026 or Jan 27 would be the cut off date for btc trades counting as wash trades if within a 30 day window(sometimes tax bills reach backwards).

I am not into this kind of trades, but from a tactical perspective, if your IBIT in taxable account is losing money, swapping it into MSBT would make sense (especially since the fee is slightly lower, but this only means something if you invest millions).

Speaking of taxes - owning spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) provides the account owner with standard U.S. IRS 1099 reporting, making tax season significantly easier than tracking direct Bitcoin transactions.  Tax filing software can auto-import any brokerage account tax information for easy Federal return filing.    

I have three brokerage accounts; with Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo Brokerage through my Private Wealth Management Bank account. I can auto-import my brokerage information directly into tax software... I have no desire to deal with self custody of Bitcoin, wallets, cold storage, private keys, etc. Most investors don't...  

Reporting btc transactions is really hard to do.

Phil - No doubt it is really hard to do. I don't want to deal with it - and I've made it so I don't have to - because (wait for it) I'm a 'BTCETFInvestor'.

[hypebrother]

One could endlessly trade ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) and never trigger a wash sale (albeit there is no wash sales rules in bitcoin yet, but as soon as Clarity/parity pair of bills pass, there would be).

It remains to be seen whether Jan 2026 or Jan 27 would be the cut off date for btc trades counting as wash trades if within a 30 day window(sometimes tax bills reach backwards).

I am not into this kind of trades, but from a tactical perspective, if your IBIT in taxable account is losing money, swapping it into MSBT would make sense (especially since the fee is slightly lower, but this only means something if you invest millions).

Speaking of taxes - owning spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT/MSBT/FBTC) provides the account owner with standard U.S. IRS 1099 reporting, making tax season significantly easier than tracking direct Bitcoin transactions.  Tax filing software can auto-import any brokerage account tax information for easy Federal return filing.    

I have three brokerage accounts; with Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo Brokerage through my Private Wealth Management Bank account. I can auto-import my brokerage information directly into tax software... I have no desire to deal with self custody of Bitcoin, wallets, cold storage, private keys, etc. Most investors don't...  

Reporting btc transactions is really hard to do.

BTC ETFs or any cryptocurrency related ETFs are a good investment tool. As Already said by philip, BTC tx's are anonymous and difficult to trace. That does not mean ETFs are not viable. It just needs stricter fiat-BTC exchange policies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

You don't fuck with Trump unless you're a fool. And, you don't say Trump caved unless you're a fool!  

Trumped caved is another way of saying that TACO Tuesday ended up playing out..   That dumbass.. He got his lil-selfie in over his head - even though he is unlikely to admit it, which is part of the problem with hubris and lying to one's self.. It works, until it doesn't.  Karma, perhaps?.. keep being arrogant and blow  things up, sometimes will end up backfiring and really fucking things up, including a problem when there are mere attempts to negotiate to get back to where things were.. .that is dumb.

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, trading under the ticker MSBT, is scheduled to launch tomorrow, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. It will list on NYSE Arca, becoming the first spot Bitcoin ETF issued directly by a major U.S. bank.
Morgan Stanley has roughly 16,000 financial advisors with Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management overseeing about $8 trillion in AUM. They recommend clients have 2% to 4% Bitcoin allocation. A 2% allocation would represent $160 billion, ~3X the size of Blackrock's spot IBIT ETF.

For reference:
Total BTC Possible with $160 billion: ~$160,000,000,000 / $72,000 ≈ 2,222,222.22 BTC
Context: This represents over 10% of the maximum 21 million BTC supply.

To the extent that they are buying actual bitcoin and not rehypothicating, the BTC price is likely to go up to accommodate a 2% to 4% allocation in bitcoin for their clients, to the extent that their clients might follow their recommendations...which would mean that they are likely going to take some time to actually reach 1 or 2 million bitcoin in custody for their assets under management.

Lest they forget, Hummus and Garlic Sauce are not the same.

USA and Iran agreed on a ceasefire,
Not really bright upstairs.
It does not mean Iran won.

Why is Iran so quick to claim victory when we all know that they are the ones on the receiving end, whatever plan or agreement they've given American to meet up, why can't they wait till everything materializes before they come to the public to sing kumbaya, because this makes me want to believe that, it is more like throwing the cat before the horse.

They are likely trolling Trump, since Trump is such a sensitive and emotional twat.. who obviously is razzled by the place he finds his lil selfie.

[hypebrother]

[edited out]

You don't fuck with Trump unless you're a fool. And, you don't say Trump caved unless you're a fool!  

~snip~

Lest they forget, Hummus and Garlic Sauce are not the same.

USA and Iran agreed on a ceasefire,
Not really bright upstairs.
It does not mean Iran won.

Why is Iran so quick to claim victory when we all know that they are the ones on the receiving end, whatever plan or agreement they've given American to meet up, why can't they wait till everything materializes before they come to the public to sing kumbaya, because this makes me want to believe that, it is more like throwing the cat before the horse.

They are likely trolling Trump, since Trump is such a sensitive and emotional twat.. who obviously is razzled by the place he finds his lil selfie.

Relax juanjee, trump just wants his bronze medal.

[Vod]

Why is Iran so quick to claim victory when we all know that they are the ones on the receiving end

Because they won.   The are now in de facto control of the strait - something they were not before the war. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Why is Iran so quick to claim victory when we all know that they are the ones on the receiving end

Because they won.   The are now in de facto control of the strait - something they were not before the war. 

Seems to be that is the case.

But these days who knows whats next.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com