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Hmm, seems not very fair since I was the one who estimated the probability, not you.
I would be a bettor, not the house.
House determines the odds, not a player.
We are peer to peer. There is no house, except for the house as a neutral means for us to communicate and coordinate through (meaning this thread).
You had already assigned odds that the BTC price was something like greater than 80% odds to go below our current low... which on bitstamp was $59.93, even though you were proposing much lower numbers in the $56.8k and the $59.56k ranges.
Bettor bets when he thinks that his odds are better than the house.
I already proposed a bet based on the my understanding of your statements that would attempt to line up with the level of the conviction of your statements.
Sure, it is possible that we could negotiate other terms that i would still consider to be bettable... I did find your earlier statement to be a bit extreme.. even though it is not outrageous if you are merely saying that the odds are greater than 80% that the bottom is no in... but if I misunderstood you, and you were saying something else, then that would not be the first time that I misunderstood a thing or two.
The house (Polymarket) says that chances of 55K or less are 66% (so it is 0.34 vs 0.66 odds not in my favor).
That might not be bettable from my perspective... but I don't easily bet unless I believe that the odds are in my favor - yet we know that the mere fact that I believe the odds are in my favor does not mean that I will win, such bet.
Your proposal is 0.8 odds in my favor, 0.2 odds against.
I might have misunderstood, since I thought that you were claiming that the odds were greater than 80% that the bottom was not in.
That does not correspond to expectations-so, you basically mistook bettor's internal odds for the marketplace odds.
From my perspective, if you say that the odds are a certain number (such as 80% odds that the price is going to go below the current local low), then you should be willing to bet on those odds or some close approximation of such odds, which is part of the reason that I explained what i considered would be the bet in order to capture such stated odds, if you really were to have had believed that such odds were applicable to our current state of bitcoin market dynamics.
At the same time, I recognize the possibility that we might have, here, [url-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WUyZXhLHMk]a "failure to communicate."[/url]
I'm ready for $40k, seems it needs a good fakeout until the next dip.
The volume seems like most trading volume is coming from ETF's (volume rising over the course of a week, until weekend, then it's almost gone).
What odds are you placing on anything in the $40ks? I would think less than 50%.
Hopefully, with your psychological preparations for down, you are not failing/refusing to sufficiently prepare for up and/or that such levels of downity does not end up happening.
It will be interesting if bitcoin transactions end up taking place for ship tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. One thing is to announce it, and another thing would be for them to actually start to happen on a daily (and perhaps several times a day) basis.
One thing is the bitcoin transaction, and then another thing might be the extent that they might be converted into other currencies, cryptos, assets and/or otherwise used.
As to price 72k means baby bull. Maybe it will grow into a big bull.
NOT
I pray for maga trumper's every day.
Hoping you all see the light one day.
I do the same for those who deny the four year cycle.
Hoping you all get to make millions one day. As for the war… Anyone who has studied the history of global reserve currencies knows that we are entering a period of war as the established world order adjusts to a new reality.
Maybe you should think of yourself a wee bit moar better?
You are struggling with bitcoin holdings in the ballpark of 20-ish - when you could have easily had more than 200 bitcoin, and perhaps more than 1k bitcoin, without too much efforts----
However, your story seems to be that you would prefer to start to the clock in 2018-ish when you first realized that there were cycles in bitcoin.
You don't seem to be leading by example, even if you might have had executed part of a profitable trade, to the extent that you are believable and also to the extent that you are able to accomplish getting through the whole trade, rather than claiming success when only the selling portion has so far been achieved.
There are likely quite a few guys who came to the forum, even 5 years or more later than you, and still ended up with way more bitcoin than you... hahahahahaha.. go figure.
There is value in focusing on accumulation and HODL.. rather than fucking around trying to act as if you are smart based on your having had sold some bitcoin, supposedly with dollar profits.
I'm ready for $40k
id rather we have a quick peek over 100k. just to see whats there.
That might be a good bet. Which comes first? $40k or $100k?.. or we could split it? $30k up or $30k down from here? Which comes first?
@cAPSLOCK - What breed is your dog that has a brindle pattern?
I am sorry I am not authorized by the regulation of DOGPPA to share my dog's PHI! (it's actually a subset of PHI. It's PII, which is even more protected!)
well then, at least give our our inquisitive paperbotboy your mothers maiden name and 1st cars make and model for his troubles
Even if the twat already has a decent amount of information, that is no reason to be lax in regards to certain personal details.
Poll
