The trend of lower highs has been broken. A positive development for bulls. Not much in the way of resistance between here and 90K.
I see Strategy’s stack is now in the black as well. I’m shocked the plan to borrow money at over 11% to pump Bitcoin is working for now.
RSI & StochRSI & Friday not signaling a weekend selloff?
When ETF's are out of order.
Or is watching the dance of RSI's too old fashioned way of TA?
@JJG: No, i'm not (really) bearish, just discussing. My bags are filled and i'm good =)I still consider that we are in a "bear market" until we are not.
I am not sure what I would need to reassess that we are out of the bear market. Getting over $100k and staying there for several days would probably do it, yet there might be some lesser price thresholds that might work for me as well.
My thoughts exactly.
The Strait of Hormuz opening, the ceasefire, etc. may be causing the mini-pump, but that does not mean we are seeing a bear-to-bull market transition. I hope we do see it very soon, but I'm not holding my breath if I'm honest. I see tumbleweeds coming our way...
We have politicians who show themselves to be purposefully manipulating the market, and even frequently lying in order to engage in such manipulations - and it is funny (or ironic) sometimes that we get some kinds of mainstream talking points that are all coordinated at once, for example, with some of the dumb talk around the new "Professor Jiang" celebrity nonsense (being a supposed bitcoin expert while at the same time talking about his not knowing where the bitcoin servers are at), and even the BIP 361 proposals that were attributed to Jamison Lopp (that proposes the freezing/locking of unspent coins if they are dormant over a certain period), and even though I am not very excited about supposed needs for "clarity" through legislation, I had heard that some of the more recent discussions of "clarity act" language changes were being purposefully being kept secret from the public..
so we have legislators who seem to be leaving most, if not all, of the legislative discussion being batted around through lobbyists such as "traditional banks" versus "crypto banks," which seems a train wreck in the making to the extent that bitcoin price pumpamentals are affected by various legislative draconian actions playing out in the USA - and to the extent that bitcoin has any protections from draconian governments when software designers (referring to Samauri developers) staying locked up....and yeah, who knows how much Iran is being suppressed in terms of attacks on its miners and/or attacks upon its abilities to carry out large bitcoin transactions.. not that large bitcoin transactions can specifically be stopped if they might still be going on "behind the scenes"... .
And, the level of ongoing "crazy" through MicroStrategy (Strategy) and Saylor, too.. .. It is like holy fucking shit, in terms of the supposed quantity of bitcoin being bought, and how could there be much if any assurance that those bitcoin are real (and not diluted too much) if those kinds of supposed purchases are not moving the BTC price.. and we also have similar levels of supposed ETF buys, that also seem to have questionable abilities to add up to the coins being backed up, so then there could well be questions about the level of dilution that exists and are there any ways to hold accountable those purveyors of paper bitcoin products and their ongoing non-accountability and their already known agenda to make money no matter the bitcoin price direction... so they might not even have incentives for the bitcoin price to go up if they are not holding much if any of the actual bitcoin that they claim to hold, anyhow.
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You're very correct. I would say that there is still a long way to go. But then, I doubt if that will be happening real soon, getting above the $100k and staying over it and probably chasing the ATH. I doubt if we can see the $126k this year again as it's still resisting around the $60s - $70k-ish area. With my lame understanding of the bitcoin cycle, I am bent on believing that the next might move would be around 2029. This maybe true or may be not, just believing the text based on past records (also from the text). I joined bitcoin during a bull phase, and watching it decline and down to the $60k-ish area trending downwards from the end of the year and and now upwards.
You seem to be feeling sorry for yourself... as if "other guys" in bitcoin had it better than you. We know that you cannot turn back the clock, and we also should know that predicting the future is not really possible, especially when it comes to specifics, even though there might be some directional possibilities that might be somewhat within an assessment of probabilities.
It could be the case that BTC prices largely stay down for a couple more years, even though some of your expectations of limited upward movement in the coming years might be a wee bit too bearish, even though surely if you had been ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, it might not matter too much to you, even though it could well be the case that your current bitcoin holdings are not in the positive at the moment, if you had been ongoingly buying bitcoin.. but if you have been fucking around with trading, then it might be harder to know how matters might end up playing out for you.. since for many of the traders and the guys who had not been focused on ongoingly buying of bitcoin, they might be gloating right now and even feeling good about their recent bitcoin accumulation hesitancies, and historically, we have seen many of those same kinds of thinkers getting fucked royally up the ass when they end up overly preparing for down (or sideways - while thinking that they have time to accumulate bitcoin and/or to play BTC's short-term price movements) and failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately prepare their own lil selfies and their finances for up.
At the same time, past performance does not guarantee future results, so there is never really any meaningful ability to proclaim where the BTC price is going to go and/or whether an ongoing buying and holding practice is going to end up paying off - depending on your investment timeline, whether it is 4-10 years or more, or if you might have some other timeline in mind.
We live with the consequences of our own choices, and from my own point of view, I can imagine an overwhelming majority of normies needing 4-10 years or longer just to be able to really build up a decently good bitcoin stash size, especially since most normies are neither able to front load their bitcoin investment and an overwhelming majority of times, normies are not ready, willing and/or able to put any more than 15% of their annual income into bitcoin. Accordingly it seems to me that an overwhelming majority of normies who might end up being regular in their bitcoin accumulation, they are still tending to put merely 5% to 10% of their income into bitcoin
(and many of them are doing even less), so it tends to take an overwhelming majority of normies a hell-of-a-long time to really build up a decent sized bitcoin stash relative to their own financial (and other life) circumstances.
When guys get 10 years or more down the road in their bitcoin journey they can see where they are at,
** and surely they won't be able to turn back the clock, and hopefully their fuck ups were not too great in order to cause them too many regrets in terms of how much BTC they were regularly accumulating rather than spending a lot of time waiting around for BTC price moves that may or may not end up happening.
**By the way, some of us might presume that 10-ish years should have had been a sufficient amount of time to build up a decent bitcoin stash size, yet we have examples of such guys in this forum who had largely been in bitcoin prior to 10 years ago (2016) and who largely failed/refused to establish and/or maintain a decently good sized bitcoin stashes during that time and apparently did not learn any lessons from their lack of focus (trading and/or shitcoining) fuck ups, either.. hahahahahaBy the way, getting in bitcoin at or near the top of the market (or a local top) is not necessarily a bad thing... and there surely can be some benefits of buying on the way down rather than buying on the way up... I have my own experiences of getting in at the top of the 2013 cycle.. and sure, again, past performance does not have guarantees, and so each of us still has to figure out how we are going to treat the whole matter in terms of the extent to which we stay focused on persistent, consistent, regular, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive accumulation of bitcoin.. versus other tactics that would might be tempted to take.
I am not sure what I would need to reassess that we are out of the bear market. Getting over $100k and staying there for several days would probably do it, yet there might be some lesser price thresholds that might work for me as well.
Bear market is $80k downwards.
I wouldn't consider $100k a bull market tbh. It would have to be at least $110k. People forget that folks actually panicked when we collapsed from $125k to $100k. lol
My own framework involves an assessment that we are either in a bear market or a bull market, and there is no in between - even though surely sometimes it can be difficult to know (or to have confidence) that the transition had taken place from one to the other (which is part of the reason that they are referred to as lagging indicators).
I get my own gut feeling in terms of where I might want to call it (or proclaim it) one direction or another, and even though I tend to be late in terms of when I end up calling it, I also understand that even once I call it, I still might end up getting it wrong...
Also my own assessment about whether we are in a bear market or a bull market is whether I think that the bottom or top is "in" and/or whether we are more likely to go down or up based on any breakouts that might take place.. so for example, it may well be the case that currently the bottom of $59,930 is "in" yet I am ongoingly ONLY assessing that as less than 50% odds... even though it may well end up that no lower low ends up taking place.
My own "feelings" (or thoughts?) about the situation are far from scientific, and it seems that historically I have argued quite a bit with guys who have contrary views to my own, and many times, it seems that I am arguing over either my assessment that they are flip floppers or my assessment that they consider that there exists some kind of an in-between state, when it is my own proclamation that we can either be in one or the other, not both
(from my viewpoint, this is not a Schrödinger cat situation.. hahahahaha).
Poll
