There is similarity between Bitcoin price increase and human population increase on this world
Perhaps a power law curve?
Does the "crypto world" relate to this thread, somehow?
Sooner or later that condition is fulfilled and we will be in bullish market. Till then keep calm and HODL Bitcoins.
In regards to your "sooner or later" observation, I would like to point out that not all "sooners or laters" are inter-replaceable, so in consideration of the non-fungibility of sooners/laters, I reserve the right to change my mind, for example if it takes 5-ish years to reach supra $100k BTC price levels.
One small news can take Bitcoin price to 80k or to 100k.
If you are talking about next 5 years, then give me probability of whether Bitcoin will hit 1 million usd or not.
100k is something we must be worry about.
Do you understand the context of my post? I am suggesting that time is a factor, and there is a difference with bitcoin reaching $100k in the next week or two versus if it takes 5-ish years to reach $100k, and sure maybe if it were to take 5-ish years to reach $100k, I might still be bullish, but that kind of price performance would end up being quite deviant from past bitcoin price patterns that we had experienced.
You want to me to assign a likelihood to the scenario that I mentioned of bitcoin taking 5-ish years to reach $100k? I would think that it would be quite low, perhaps less than 5% odds.
I would think that the odds of bitcoin reaching $1 million would be quite high, yet the odds differ depending on the timeline.
I recall that I had already posted something in this thread about the odds for $1million in the next 4-ish years, and even asserting that I considered the odds to be greater than 50%, which means that I might be willing to enter a bet, yet as Biodom had already mentioned, a proposition does not become bettable merely because the bettor expects it to have greater than 50% odds. Usually the bettor would like to perceive himself as having a bit of an extra cushion, even though surely there could still be some guys who might bet based on the mere theatrics, even if they might not believe themselves to have any kind of a meaningful edge.
Remember in around March 2023, Balaji Srinivasan had made a bet that bitcoin would reach $1 million within the next 90 days, and I think that he even admitted that he was proposing the bet for publicity rather than his actual belief that the bet had any meaningful chances of being winnable.
By the way, when Biodom
(don't I just love using Biodom as an example?.. hahahahahaha) made his proposal about 80% odds of the BTC price going below $59.6k-ish, after I mentioned that I would like to take the other side of that bet, he said that he would not enter into the bet because he considered that betting on his proposal of 80% odds would not give him any edge, so he would ONLY be willing to bet 60% odds, and I suggested that I did not consider 60% odds to be bettable... since maybe I might even be willing to agree with 60% odds, yet I would be willing to bet 80% odds.. and maybe even some lower level of odds, even though we did not negotiate beyond the sticking points that we had ended up reaching.
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stacking more via dca is also not too bad an idea.
just as long as
a} you can afford to lose it
b} you have cash for dip
Let's say, for example, a normie is in his mid-20s, and he just landed a job for right around $30k per year ($2,500 per month) and he has tentatively assessed his basic expenses to be right around $1,500 per month. Accordingly, he decided that he was going to buy about $100 per week of bitcoin, and he would also build up his back up funds - perhaps somewhere around $60 per week, and he figures that he ONLY has around $60 per week for discretionary consumption. You think that he needs to plan for buying dips too? If he is already planning to buy $100 per week, then why does he need to save for dips beyond his already existing DCA plan?
your 25ish year old is fine doing a 100 a week dca.
but if he has eventually gathered an extra 1000 putting it in a simple 50% dip buy with no leverage at kraken is a decent move.
I don't understand why you have to be such an ongoing gambler who seems to want to overly strategize a situation that is already going fine in terms of DCA.
In a situation in which a 25-ish year old had already begun $100 per week DCA, I don't see any problem with his considering an additional lump sump in terms of 1) adding to his DCA, 2) buying right away and/or 3) buying some level of dip (that might not happen).. Maybe if we presume that his back up funds are already in a good enough place, and he does not want to allocate some of it to discretionary consumption (and he has decided to allocate such funds to bitcoin buying), then a default position could be that he allocates $333.33 to each of the three categories of DCA, buying right away and buying some level of dip that might not happen.
A 25-year old may well not be in a rush, even though he may also be interested in making ongoing progress in his building up of his bitcoin stash, and he may even have some kind of a target date ( such as 20 years down the road when he is 45-years ish) that he would like to either stop working or to have the option to be able to have more options in choosing his quantity of working (for others).
Ie setting aside 1000 at kraken today at a 38k buy is fine for him to do.
That comes off as retarded, unnecessarily greedy and taking way too many chances on dips that don't even have good odds of happening. Sure.. If he bought $333 right away, added $333 to his DCA and then left the remaining $333 for some longshot, then I don't see any problem with that, yet it seems that your ongoing, continuous and stubborn
(perhaps you are broken?.. hahahahaha) degenerate gambling mentality, you are not satisfied with incrementalism and instead you want to piss away $1k on some longshot dumb and act as if there are not any trade offs in taking such a gambling kind of an approach to the fact that the guy got $1k extra in his hand and he can take more certain actions rather than fucking around with gambling and greed.
It never stops his dca and always gives him a possible bargain buy.
Sure.. understandable that his $100 per week DCA is already fairly aggressive since it constitutes right around 17.33% of his $30k per year income.. so he is already being fairly aggressive in his DCA... and I really see no problem with his dividing up his $1k to assure some immediate bitcoin buys and even some delayed buys with adding to his DCA while at the same time, he could put some portion of it (rather than all of it) on some possible dip that may or may not happen, and your $38k seems a bit outrageous... .In my own historical structuring of buying bitcoin dips, I had frequently personally preferred to structure the dips down in reasonable ways, such as buying every $2k to $3k dip.. and, sure if the BTC price ends up going down to $38k, I don't have much if any money left, since I ended up buying all the way down in $2k or $3k increments all the way down between $68k and $38k, so then by the time the price reached $38k, I might ONLY have a few hundred dollars left, besides my regular DCA of $100 per week or whatever it might have had been.
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