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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 15 (55.6%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 3 (11.1%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 5 (18.5%)
No - other (explain below) - 4 (14.8%)
Total Voters: 27

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26969545 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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April 29, 2026, 01:38:14 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)


 You two gave me successively better morning chuckles today!  Thanks! I really needed that after finally completing my tax filling with a whole day to spare.
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April 29, 2026, 01:46:50 PM

The Bitcoin conference is a ghost town… Not even all the speakers showed up… This is not what you see before a massive rally. The speakers that did show up were talking about shitcoins… Take from that information what you will.

Why would a bitcoiner show up…
We know what we have.

Wasted time those events, rather be on a good holiday destination

 Yeah those events are only to show off your Lambo and who can afford to drive one of those with the price of gas these days?!  Sheesh!
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April 29, 2026, 02:05:42 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), cAPSLOCK (1)

fuck those corporate walled gardens, run local llm's.
I have a massive codebase almost done running one.

The problem I'm running into right now, is that 16gb or even 24gb of Nvidia 4080/4090 memory is not enough to load a decent model with a large context window.

I only have a 64gb Macbook Pro M1 Max that I'm using right now to test things out with, but even then it's just too fuggin' slow; an 8b instruct model with a context window of 64k.

Also, trying to get them reliably talking to web browsers is troubling. It works for a little bit (Spin up a chrome debug instance, had the AI connect to it via ws manually using the /browser connect <link> command) but it eventually loses it's connection and stops working reliably. The error feedback I get is pretty bad RN for troubleshooting.

Also, it's just fucking dumb on things like "Ok, this is BobClawblaws login and password", "This is the URL to use to login with captcha bypass", and it's like "Huh, what? I can't do that for <reasons>"

Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. It's just too fuggin' janky at the moment.

I'll get it eventually. Not today though. Spent another 48 hours slogging away at the "current state of things" and still having problems with my little project.

Learning more and more each time though (mostly that I need a Mac Studio M5 Ultra w/512GB RAM)

Kinda done throwing money at Anthropic for a bit...
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April 29, 2026, 02:48:01 PM

The Bitcoin conference is a ghost town… Not even all the speakers showed up… This is not what you see before a massive rally. The speakers that did show up were talking about shitcoins… Take from that information what you will.

Why would a bitcoiner show up…
We know what we have.

Wasted time those events, rather be on a good holiday destination

 Yeah those events are only to show off your Lambo and who can afford to drive one of those with the price of gas these days?!  Sheesh!


Fundraiser for a publicly listed treasury company off 99%?
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April 29, 2026, 03:01:16 PM


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April 29, 2026, 03:14:58 PM

Feels like we’re on a knife edge, sink of swim you could say.

I don’t think we stay at this price for much longer. I predict a fairly violent move very soon but I’m just not sure which direction.

Let’s hope together

80k by may 1

85k by may 7

90k by may 15

95k by may 22

100k by may 29


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April 29, 2026, 03:22:46 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

fuck those corporate walled gardens, run local llm's.
I have a massive codebase almost done running one.

The problem I'm running into right now, is that 16gb or even 24gb of Nvidia 4080/4090 memory is not enough to load a decent model with a large context window.

I only have a 64gb Macbook Pro M1 Max that I'm using right now to test things out with, but even then it's just too fuggin' slow; an 8b instruct model with a context window of 64k.

Also, trying to get them reliably talking to web browsers is troubling. It works for a little bit (Spin up a chrome debug instance, had the AI connect to it via ws manually using the /browser connect <link> command) but it eventually loses it's connection and stops working reliably. The error feedback I get is pretty bad RN for troubleshooting.

Also, it's just fucking dumb on things like "Ok, this is BobClawblaws login and password", "This is the URL to use to login with captcha bypass", and it's like "Huh, what? I can't do that for <reasons>"

Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. It's just too fuggin' janky at the moment.

I'll get it eventually. Not today though. Spent another 48 hours slogging away at the "current state of things" and still having problems with my little project.

Learning more and more each time though (mostly that I need a Mac Studio M5 Ultra w/512GB RAM)

Kinda done throwing money at Anthropic for a bit...

I just want to say, you and I both seem to have fallen down an AI hole.  In fact, I imagine many here are having this experience.

But your experience seems so much more important and grown up and technical and awesome while I'm making a cartoon fairy . 🤪

But I had a thought.  As a 100% total aphant, being able to think up and then see something from my imagination is pretty intoxicating.

It's a mistake to think that Aphants don't have an imagination. In fact, right now I'm imagining in the future when a robot controlled by our worldwide overlord is pressing its plastic and metal thumbs into my eye sockets. I might be saying something like, "Do you remember when we used to just make fairies together?"

Good times!
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April 29, 2026, 04:24:41 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

The sentiment has been very bullish in various corners of the Bitcoin world recently.  Maybe a bit too much?

And yet we are also in the middle of a Bitcoin conference* and it is traditional for the price to tank during those for some reason.

But it seems to me we're at the point where we either are going to see smaller downs and bigger ups or we're not.  I suppose in a manner of thinking we are always at one of those points.

*I have never understood why a Bitcoin conference is a good idea. It seems to me that even out of the ones that are the best, it's mostly garbage that comes from these things. 

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April 29, 2026, 04:54:46 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

how is breathing at that level?

I spent time in Lake Tahoe CA/NV USA at 7900 feet and was a bit short of breath I was 29 at the time on my honeymoon .

circa 1986.  I wonder how 10,000 feet would be.

are you drinking tea or coffee?

My Breathing was fine . I just have a headache when I was at the destination i.e. baleja meadows but luckily it was over after my body got itself adjusted to the height. Due to regular hikes, my body is used to such conditions.   

Its tea and I love tea only if there is no sugar added in it  Smiley
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April 29, 2026, 05:19:24 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2026, 06:02:27 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by El duderino_ (10), fillippone (5), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), cAPSLOCK (1), d_eddie (1), Ambatman (1)

I'm a huge fan of technology and progress, and have never hesitated to adopt the latest and greatest tech in my everyday life. But... for some odd reason that I cannot fully explain or understand, I haven't started using AI tools yet. Not even a little. I don't have a ChatGPT account, and keep all AI parts of my Google account disabled. Of course, there's Gemini popping up on my Google searches, and then there's some playing around with AI-generated fairy images (thanks to cAPS's lovely Sparkle Fairy), but that's about it. Nothing more. Nothing of substance. Not a single time have I ever used AI at work or anywhere else for something serious, at least not consciously.

I wonder why... Is it some subconscious urge to avoid it for some reason? Is it not "clicking" with me? Is it the wrong knuckle count and the stupid mistakes that AI makes, while still dressed with impeccable use of language and perfect visuals? I don't know. It seems that something inside me pushes me away, as if this is some kind of poison that should be avoided. I can't help but link this unsettling, uneasy feeling I have towards AI, to the Uncanny Valley Effect, of which I made this post a while ago.

The following is a brainstorm, which I will type unedited, as I think/feel it -- warning: may not make too much sense...

-- AI text output is near-perfect in syntax and grammar, causing the average layman reader to tend to accept it as truth, without questioning it.
-- AI very often makes stupid mistakes a 5 y.o. wouldn't make, while still sounding like an expert.
-- AI lacks an innate moral code, and its deeper aims are unclear to us and may be constantly adapting/evolving towards "something".
-- AI may not be "aware" of the above and their implications.
-- AI is often assertive and quick to act on its inference, disregarding causes-effects, unless explicitly programmed "ad hoc" by humans to do so.

Are we building a monster? Are we giving control to some artificial entity whose deeper goals/aims are not well-defined? Are we creating a machine with immense power, but a flawed artificial "brain" that may decide to use that power in ways we would not like?

Humans, with their biological, brilliant, but imperfect brains, may be flawed, but are also inherently limited. A killer or rapist can cause so much destruction until he is apprehended and put behind bars (OK, there's Hitler, Stalin, but still...). What about an AI entity with immense power, no moral code, no well-defined goals, and not fearing for its own or the world's destruction?

I don't know. Something just doesn't feel right to me, kind of like a dog that senses danger.
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April 29, 2026, 05:48:40 PM

fuck those corporate walled gardens, run local llm's.
I have a massive codebase almost done running one.

The problem I'm running into right now, is that 16gb or even 24gb of Nvidia 4080/4090 memory is not enough to load a decent model with a large context window.

I only have a 64gb Macbook Pro M1 Max that I'm using right now to test things out with, but even then it's just too fuggin' slow; an 8b instruct model with a context window of 64k.

Also, trying to get them reliably talking to web browsers is troubling. It works for a little bit (Spin up a chrome debug instance, had the AI connect to it via ws manually using the /browser connect <link> command) but it eventually loses it's connection and stops working reliably. The error feedback I get is pretty bad RN for troubleshooting.

Also, it's just fucking dumb on things like "Ok, this is BobClawblaws login and password", "This is the URL to use to login with captcha bypass", and it's like "Huh, what? I can't do that for <reasons>"

Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. It's just too fuggin' janky at the moment.

I'll get it eventually. Not today though. Spent another 48 hours slogging away at the "current state of things" and still having problems with my little project.

Learning more and more each time though (mostly that I need a Mac Studio M5 Ultra w/512GB RAM)

Kinda done throwing money at Anthropic for a bit...

I just want to say, you and I both seem to have fallen down an AI hole.  In fact, I imagine many here are having this experience.

But your experience seems so much more important and grown up and technical and awesome while I'm making a cartoon fairy . 🤪

But I had a thought.  As a 100% total aphant, being able to think up and then see something from my imagination is pretty intoxicating.

It's a mistake to think that Aphants don't have an imagination. In fact, right now I'm imagining in the future when a robot controlled by our worldwide overlord is pressing its plastic and metal thumbs into my eye sockets. I might be saying something like, "Do you remember when we used to just make fairies together?"

Good times!

Do you refer to aphantasia here?
...heck, not a disease, just a human minority condition that doesn't affect much of anything.
In fact, many scientists have it. I dunno, maybe it helps with logic  Grin.
BTW, it is equally puzzling to both sides.
It certainly cuts down on nightmares (that usually don't show up at all),lol.
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April 29, 2026, 06:08:23 PM

The sentiment has been very bullish in various corners of the Bitcoin world recently.  Maybe a bit too much?

And yet we are also in the middle of a Bitcoin conference* and it is traditional for the price to tank during those for some reason.

But it seems to me we're at the point where we either are going to see smaller downs and bigger ups or we're not.  I suppose in a manner of thinking we are always at one of those points.

*I have never understood why a Bitcoin conference is a good idea. It seems to me that even out of the ones that are the best, it's mostly garbage that comes from these things.  



I see her wands are not lit green anymore... In fact, they appear extinguished, and one of them has turned into a paintbrush. Also, not a single sparkle.

Are we witnessing glitches from the AI machine, or should we expect a deeper dip? Not looking so good...

BTW, about aphantasia, I've heard/read about it in the past, but have never known someone who has the condition. Must be interesting (and weird for the rest of us), for someone to not be able to form a picture in his brain. Could be positive too, by removing the visual element of thoughts, thus processing information in a more pure, rigorous manner, perhaps.
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April 29, 2026, 07:02:03 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Feels like we’re on a knife edge, sink of swim you could say.

I don’t think we stay at this price for much longer. I predict a fairly violent move very soon but I’m just not sure which direction.

It is so difficult to know.  We have surely been in $65k to $80k price range.. (and currently seeming at the top of such price range) for a decently long time, if we are looking at from our February 4 price drop into this neighborhood, which is right close at 3 months. .. even though we might also notice a kind of slow gravitation up within the relatively small range... bringing us up close to $80k without quite touching it (or getting above it, so far).

I am not going to proclaim to know the direction of any upcoming violent price move, and surely to attempt to be consistent with my assertion that we are still in a bear market (since the evidence is not strong enough for our having had left it), then despite my own personal preferences, I have to place the odds slightly greater for down rather than up.. even though of course, like many other HODLers my preference continues to be up, yet my own perspective of bear market or bull market has to help to inform me of my own expectations of any break out directionality, even if frequently I am not even sure about my own perception and assessment, since we also likely realize that manipulation can happen in either direction that contributes to momentum in that direction.. and it could even take several days to realize whether a break out had ended up being fake or "for reals."



Feels like we’re on a knife edge, sink of swim you could say.

I don’t think we stay at this price for much longer. I predict a fairly violent move very soon but I’m just not sure which direction.
Let’s hope together
Pretty sure it's going up because there is zero reason to be bearish.
While retail is still scared whales accumulating Bitcoin currently  going parabolic.

I can smell a new ATH this year.


What a world.  What a world.

Paashaas the most bullish mo-fo that no one has ever met.




......The downside of not obeying to aging: Injuries.
I jumped down a (downward) moving staircase six steps down, beautiful landing on the left forefoot to start the run-off, but smashed my right pinky finger on the rail while swinging down my arms at landing. Bulged bruise on the middle joint, still hurts. The most annoying thing wasn't my embarrassing behavior (to the people of similar age watching me at the mall), but if you eat with chopsticks occasionally, try to spread away your pinky finger, it's a horrbile experience. You can't put sufficient force on the lower stick, dropping food all the time  Roll Eyes
A lesson that thought me how important the tiniest of all fingers really is.

I had to investigate into your assertion.  I first went to grab a pair of chopsticks to see how I use such chopsticks (not claiming to be a chopstick's expert) and I don't use the pinky at all, not even ornamentally.

It seems that I stabilize the bottom chopstick with the thumb and fourth finger (ring finger) and I move the top chopstick with the index and middle finger.  So, I am using four out of five fingers.

Largely, what I do like this, except both my index and my middle finger are on top of the top chopstick.



My main point is not whether I use chopsticks correctly or not, even though it appears in the images that I found online, other folks (seemingly normies) are only using four out of five of their fingers, and without seeming to use their pinky in any kind of way.  

Essentially, I dispute your assertion of the importance of the pinky in the context of chopsticks' use, yet I am not going to otherwise dispute your assertion about the arguable importance of the pinky in other possible applications.  In that regard, I am fairly confident that the pinky has some kinds of arguable purpose(s), beyond looking fashionable when drinking tea.   Tongue

I don't know. Something just doesn't feel right to me, kind of like a dog that senses danger.

I still think, based on the way you framed the matter that knowing your enemies might be justified in your situation, especially since you already acknowledged a personal history of having a curiosity and interest in new technical thingie-ma-jiggies.

I doubt that you would be enabling such AI by participating, and you also might be able to help others in terms of their own perceptions of AI - based on your own knowledge, experience and potential future participation that better informs your already existing past practice of curiosity.

Personally, even though I have some things that I have historically been able to "get into" technically, there are many times (perhaps even more recently) that I become technically overwhelmed, and surely I recognize that there are folks who are less technically astute than me, yet there can be quite a few ways that i end up both getting overwhelmed and then sometimes paralyzed when i realize that I had taken some previous actions without making fair assessments of trade-offs.. I suppose that there are a lot of us that appreciate bells and whistles in our cars and also bells and whistles in our phones, so for sure, many of might be simultaneously going through some feelings of regrets in terms of how much we have consented to being traced in our movements, and perhaps even feeling some helplessness in regards to how much we might be able to get out of any of these modern-life conveniences.  Modern life conveniences that might be taking away our abilities to reproduce - not only plastics in the food and water, but removal of some of our in person ways of engaging in our communities...sometimes being overly scared of strangers.
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