Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[goldkingcoiner]

Time to check the Bitcoin price speculation and analysis on my favorite thread.

Oh... Freaky fingers... Ok good night.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

I picked up some pretty cool swag at the conference. This artist did 40 hand-painted variations of this:



Then you probably don't know but among Counterparty kids this is a pretty big deal:



The original painting for that card was sold with its companion piece at auction for ₿0.327...

I went to a few talks. The quantum stuff was kind of interesting... its neither here nor there at the moment... get it? I also realized NOSTR has a lot of potential in the future.

At one point I sat down in a talk with Eric Trump & 2 other suits. That was boring, as was Jack Mallers talking about low interest rates for bitcoin lending. I think this event established the term "suitcoiner." Too much ETF this, treasury that, fund this. Half the audience was wearing a suit. But they are Bitcoin too.

Oh, and I went to a talk with the guy who draws banks on fire. That was pretty good.

[cAPSLOCK]

So do we still think the four-year cycle is going to rule?

I mean, we, as in other people than I, because I continue to say it's different this time.

I own it. I know who I am.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

So do we still think the four-year cycle is going to rule?

I mean, we, as in other people that I, because I continue to say, it's different this time.

I own it. I know who I am.

I think so. Saylor paying 11.5% to borrow money trying to keep the current price afloat isn’t a good sign. I still expect September prices below $60K.

That being said… It is DCA day for me. I purchased 0.0159 BTC for $1,245.57 at a price of $78,142.94 per Bitcoin.

[Biodom]

So do we still think the four-year cycle is going to rule?

I mean, we, as in other people that I, because I continue to say, it's different this time.

I own it. I know who I am.

I think so. Saylor paying 11.5% to borrow money trying to keep the current price afloat isn’t a good sign. I still expect September prices below $60K.

That being said… It is DCA day for me. I purchased 0.0159 BTC for $1,245.57 at a price of $78,142.94 per Bitcoin.

I think that market is stuck in the rut because of unknown unknowns...it's not the cycle, imho, it is something else entirely.
Maybe K-economy?

I have to say that bitcoin is unique in that it allowed regular folks to buy it essentially from an angel investing stage size all the way to a large cap (right now).
You could not have done it with many large cap techs such as Meta, Googl, now Anthropic and SpaceX.
You had to be on "inside" to know or even acquire those early. There are some secondary markets, but they mostly had shares when companies already had >100bil presumed capitalization.
In the doldrums of 2014 bitcoin traded for months at 3-4 bil market cap, from where it is almost 500X to today (and I am even not talking about 2009-2014 prices that were 100-1000 times lower.)

when you have an asset like this...you don't sell it, imho.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[smartcomet]

https://x.com/danrobinson/status/2050229833146532109

Millions of BTC could be vulnerable to quantum computers
Bitcoin may someday need to sunset those addresses, but that could force a public migration
Today we published a design to let that migration be costless and silent: Public Address-Control Timestamps (PACTs)

There's a way to let Satoshi keep his BTC without moving them

Holders only need to timestamp knowledge of their keys before a quantum break, which can be done silently and efficiently

The protocol could support a rescue path by proving one of these timestamps
...

PACT/v1: Bitcoin quantum-sunset proof of address control
network=bitcoin-mainnet
scriptPubKey=<the vulnerable output scriptPubKey>
salt=<32 random bytes>


salt = random(32 bytes)
msg = Encode("PACT/v1", "bitcoin-mainnet", scriptPubKey, salt)
control_proof = BIP322_FULL_SIGN(scriptPubKey, msg)
commitment = SHA256("PACT/v1 commitment" || salt || SHA256(control_proof))

Great idea.

[philipma1957]

So do we still think the four-year cycle is going to rule?

I mean, we, as in other people that I, because I continue to say, it's different this time.

I own it. I know who I am.

I think so. Saylor paying 11.5% to borrow money trying to keep the current price afloat isn’t a good sign. I still expect September prices below $60K.

That being said… It is DCA day for me. I purchased 0.0159 BTC for $1,245.57 at a price of $78,142.94 per Bitcoin.

I think that market is stuck in the rut because of unknown unknowns...it's not the cycle, imho, it is something else entirely.
Maybe K-economy?

I have to say that bitcoin is unique in that it allowed regular folks to buy it essentially from an angel investing stage size all the way to a large cap (right now).
You could not have done it with many large cap techs such as Meta, Googl, now Anthropic and SpaceX.
You had to be on "inside" to know or even acquire those early. There are some secondary markets, but they mostly had shares when companies already had >100bil presumed capitalization.
In the doldrums of 2014 bitcoin traded for months at 3-4 bil market cap, from where it is almost 500X to today (and I am even not talking about 209-2014 prices that were 100-1000 times lower.)

when you have an asset like this...you don't sell it, imho.

finally back to a 2 coiner status.

i will be doing a monthly sale of the mined coins. so if we crash in the fall  i will be able to dip buy.

also we dropped in hashrate again so it is as if i purchased more gear at no cost and no extra power cost.

lets see if the dip under 60k happens or if og is not correct.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

Crossing fingers on breaking through $80k resistance today.

Bah. Maybe next week. Have a good weekend folks. Off to the county fair livestock auction tomorrow to help some local kids with their continuing education; Rick and I go every year since buying the ranch. BBQ and free beer! Wew!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

So do we still think the four-year cycle is going to rule?
I mean, we, as in other people that I, because I continue to say, it's different this time.

I own it. I know who I am.

I think so. Saylor paying 11.5% to borrow money trying to keep the current price afloat isn’t a good sign. I still expect September prices below $60K.

That being said… It is DCA day for me. I purchased 0.0159 BTC for $1,245.57 at a price of $78,142.94 per Bitcoin.

I think that market is stuck in the rut because of unknown unknowns...it's not the cycle, imho, it is something else entirely.
Maybe K-economy?

I have to say that bitcoin is unique in that it allowed regular folks to buy it essentially from an angel investing stage size all the way to a large cap (right now).
You could not have done it with many large cap techs such as Meta, Googl, now Anthropic and SpaceX.
You had to be on "inside" to know or even acquire those early. There are some secondary markets, but they mostly had shares when companies already had >100bil presumed capitalization.
In the doldrums of 2014 bitcoin traded for months at 3-4 bil market cap, from where it is almost 500X to today (and I am even not talking about 209-2014 prices that were 100-1000 times lower.)
when you have an asset like this...you don't sell it, imho.

I don't have any problem with your overall assessment, even though ongoingly I get senses from your that seem to frame bitcoin as if it were a mature asset, so you seem to be ongoingly concerned about its limited upside, while at the same time, you seem to be increasingly accepting that bitcoin continues to have a large upside potential.

In recent times, even I am getting somewhat depressed by what seems to be ongoing yet seemingly subtle attacks on the self-custody of bitcoin and even an ongoing undermining of bitcoin's actual power, even though the rich fucktwats who are ongoingly employing these various attacks  - and currently happening all over the world, they really want to be able to use bitcoin for themselves, but they want normies to self-report holdings and/or to be pigeonholed into not having very many options to transact in bitcoin that do not involve KYC channels.   

Sure, any single one of us could either transact with each other in bitcoin because of our having had gotten to know each other from over the interwebs or if we meet in person we could buy goods and services from each other, even though maybe we might be scared if their are questions of larger transactions and needs to report how such transactions were done... even though surely there can still be ways  to transact, and perhaps one of the tricks is the setting up of multiple entities, to the extent that we are able to seed such entity or do we end up having to report our seeding of the entity too...

Anyhow, your point about normies being able to get in on the ground floor still seems to apply to bitcoin, even though surely, like you suggested, the BTC prices are even up more than 300x from our mid 2015 prices in the mid $200s... so it may well be the case that a decent amount of the upside has been taken away, since even if we go into the $10 million prices from  here, that is ONLY right around a 128x price increase from here... and perhaps we should not be complaining about that level of limits on our upside since it is possible to achieve such $10 million per coin within 10-ish years, and perhaps sooner.. .but yeah, I am ongoingly bothered by the ongoing attacks on self-custody which I think continues to undermine various aspects of bitcoin's continued value thesis.

It is possible that I might be quibbling too much.. and I think that the first trigger phrase was referring to bitcoin as a "large cap" asset... which gets my danders up a wee bit.

[edited out]

finally back to a 2 coiner status.
i will be doing a monthly sale of the mined coins. so if we crash in the fall  i will be able to dip buy.

also we dropped in hashrate again so it is as if i purchased more gear at no cost and no extra power cost.
lets see if the dip under 60k happens or if og is not correct.

You just love those bear case scenarios, even though I will admit that I don't find under $60k by September to be bettable.. and surely for the moment he has backed off of some of his more radical calls that were into the $40ks, which I would likely bet those, just for the mere symbolic angle, even though I don't have any desires to purposefully have to interact with OG, even if we were to agree upon escrow.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

The strongest macro signal has now confirmed.

We now have both:
- COPPER/GOLD 1M MACD Bullish cross
- Business cycle in expansion

These two vital pieces of fundamental macro data are both aligning...

And when this happens, it has always marked the start of the most explosive periods of Bitcoins cycles.

Each one lasting for an average of 380 days.

You do not need any other piece of data to understand how bitcoins cycles work.

I have signalled on this chart the time difference between the MACD bullish crosses, and the last two have been in 4 year cycles...

Which is exactly where THE 4 year cycle comes from.

it is so important right now to understand that Bitcoin has not decided this itself. It is at the mercy of wider macro forces.

But this time, the cycle is longer, due to the longest ever business cycle contraction.

This cannot be clearer.

Bitcoin will not follow the same path the 4 year cycle guys are expecting, and we now have concrete confirmation of that.

You must force yourself to understand this and get positioned before things move beyond where we are now..,

And move they will.

The ones who win big in this next phase are the ones who are able to see beyond what the consensus believe.

Will that be you, or not?

x

[CryptoYar]

Crossing fingers on breaking through $80k resistance today.

Bah. Maybe next week. Have a good weekend folks. Off to the county fair livestock auction tomorrow to help some local kids with their continuing education; Rick and I go every year since buying the ranch. BBQ and free beer! Wew!

Ah, the classic 'Maybe next week'—the official anthem of the Wall Observer. Enjoy ranch and the free beer. Education and BBQ are much better investments than staring at the 80k wall all weekend anyway.