BKK Wo meet up with Galianooooo
Is Galianooooo a wee bit less bearish about dee cornz than he was in late-ish 2022?
Recall his then proclamations of sub-$12k-ish bitcoin?
here is hoping you are correct and not og.
I said to sell at $117K and started buying back in the $60s… You keep acting as though I’m not already right.
Of course, no matter what you (Og) are going to be "already right".. except too bad you did not hang onto the coins that you fairly easily accumulated between mid-2011 and early 2013.. and not only that, you could have had continued to accumulate BTC from early 2013 to present, and then just think about how "already right" you could have had been if you hadn't been so damned lured into thinking that you are smarter than everyone else through your ongoing trading, gambling and ending up being the poster boy of "already wrong" prior to being "already right."
Go figure.
hahahahahahaha
You are too focused on the day to day. Zoom out… Remember it was me who told you not to be ladder selling when we were in the $40s before the bubble and I was telling you not to buy with ladder buys on the way down from the top. I’ve been buying since December at the lows and you want to say I’m wrong if we go up while you have recently been contemplating selling? Make it make sense.
Zooming out does make sense, especially if we were to go to your forum registration date.. .but you don't want to zoom out that far, correct?
Sure.. We all make mistakes.. and some of them are BIGGER than others. I am not free of my own mistakes from time to time.
Some mistakes do not materialize for quite a while down the road, whether or not there might be some guys waiting for and betting on bitcoin lows (for this cycle) in "September"-ish...
From the perspective of this here cat, there remains value in making sure that we are prepared for either direction, and maybe there is also value in NOT talking out of both sides of our mouth during proclamations of being "already right."
There are some thoughts:
1. Volume is a bit too high. We didn't see "bitcoin is dead" sentiments in this bear cycle. There could be valid reasons like ETF decoupling volumes, even pushing volumes.
For some strange reason, this part of "we" (meaning royal) recalls, in recent times, seeing various assertion that "bitcoin is dead."
In that case we could well have had the cycle low past now (early Feb), where there also was a more significant dip in volume, and volume was maybe getting buffered by ETF and Saylor-ish moves.
For sure there are ONGOING questions in terms of how many of the BTC being bought and/or sold through the ETFs and Saylor/MSTR are backed 1 to 1 or even close to 1 to 1.
2. Shorts up to $83k are to be taken out. But this needs more volume, which is currently still descending.
I will agree that there seems to be challenges getting above $80k.. and many times there have been difficulties getting "volume" over the weekend. Even though I recall, historically, that sometimes the weekends would contain "surprises," and it seems that in recent times, including since the early 2024 introduction of spot BTC ETFs in the US of A, there has not been too many spurts of surprise volume on the weekends, even though I can vaguely recall a few incidents of surprise volume over the weekend in the early days of the ETFs.. or maybe that was in late 2023.. Recall in late 2023, we already had a bit of a surprise burst upwards in the BTC price that was likely based on some market sense that the spot BTC ETFs had very high odds of passing (which now we see as inevitable after they were announced in early January 2024 and went live within a very short period (maybe it was within a day or two?) of the announced approval).
3. OG and big bags were sold in higher price ranges, thanks to the psychological $100k level.
I take those stories with a decently large grain of salt, even though sure some big bags may have had been sold.. yet the BIG bags being sold (to the extent it happened) seems more of an exaggeration and even a convenient spin, even though I will admit that the level of governmental and financial institution fucking around with bitcoin - including various measures all over the place to both demonize self-custody and attack privacy, these are not really great developments for either bitcoin's value proposition or even any level of actual people empowerment rather than cronies ongoingly attempting to use any innovation (including bitcoin and related matters) as their little play thing. It would be nice to witness some of those insiders getting their asses handed to them, yet I understand that my own desires for status quo rich to pay some of the costs to be a bit of a fantasy rather than anything that is too realistic to happen.. .even if there are likely various ongoing changes in the distribution of wealth.
4. Economy isn't doing well enough to create liquidity to push beyond $85k and $100k.
That seems to be true, and it can be difficult to know how sustainable the ongoing pumping of the US stock market can be...It doesn't feel sustainable, which it seems if (or when) it crashes then a decent amount of liquidity would go away which may well not be very helpful for the price performance of dee cornz.
There is the chance that enough sidelined liquidity from (3) will be able to do that, when OGs and "market makers" decide it's not justified to wait longer, because of (1) and probably taking advantage of (2). Retail is mainly struggling, not much volume expected there.
These ideas of OG and market maker liquidity seems a bit intangible, even though it is possible that there could be something substantial in these kinds of claims that seem to suggest that bitcoin might be able to pump in spite of potential losses of overall market liquidity.
The ideas seem a bit amorphous for me to really wrap my head around them in any kind of a tangible way
(my brain might not be even close to BIG enough (in the literal or even in a fantastical/imaginationing sense) for such seemingly grandiose lines of thought).
5. Political instability adding to investors hesitation to put money into risk assets. So they just stay in the stonks zone until the waters are more clear.
I don't know. There are various changes in the perceptions of bitcoin in various parts of the market in terms of whether bitcoin should be included in the "risk on" or "risk off" category. Of course, longer term bitcoiners have frequently considered that bitcoin should be considered to be in a "risk off" category, yet the market has not always agreed with the longer term bitcoiners, even though it seems that more and more segments of the market are potentially coming around to a view of bitcoin as a "risk off" asset.
6. (EDIT: Historically, there were sharp drops at the beginning of May and June, taking out longs that were opened only shortly before. This brings $52k-ish considerations into play, all longs below $50k are long lived positions, mostly opened in the bull market of the beginning of this cycle.)
Even in our late 2023 and early 2024 pumpening, the corrections of 2024 did not bring too many opportunities to buy in the lower $50ks, so it might not have had been too easy to establish longs in 2024 that were very much below around $58k..
I am not sure what market moves (including any bottom tests) since late 2023 really tell us about how low of a bottom is likely.. and yeah, we know that the difference between what is likely and what is possible is different, and in that sense historically in bitcoin we have witnessed a lot of bottom fishers betting on what is possible rather than what is likely and then mostly getting their asses handed to them since many times they end up not being able to pick up coins even close to as low as they had been considering to have had been in the cards of possible when they were too much reading possible as if it were to mean the same as likely.
It's still not clear to me how much ETFs are blurring the picture, distorting or even invalidating signals that were once reliable.
Sure. Markets change, and financialization surely adds to BTC's price dynamics, and yeah it can be quite difficult to know how much since for sure some of those twats could also be manipulating behind the scenes to the extent that they are capable of doing such, but they likely could get into a lot of trouble if they go too far with some of their manipulation attempts.
It was easier when we had a Spot only market.
Sure. But, it is not like anything can be done about it. The cats out of the bag.
Every new derivative class just brought more parameters into play, to the disadvantage of Bitcoin cycle metrics not more delivering the more clear picture, like before futures, options, banking custodials and Spot ETF. That's why i guess all the "crosses" aren't as trustful as we knew them.
Careful.
I agree that any of us could get into trouble if we are trying to play these dynamics with too much confidence in terms of thinking that we got it figured out.
It seems that there are still some limits in regards to how far prices can be pushed, yet whenever there are abilities to attempt to push limits, I would imagine that there may be attempts to do so.. and the extent to which any of them are getting burnt might be harder to determine from our somewhat layman's perspective.. even though surely there are probably some sources of information and inferences that are stronger than others.. and we have aspects of the prior cycle and not seeming to exist at the same time.
But if you aren't in for fiat gains or just believe in bitcoin's future, i'd buy anytime there is money left.
That has always been the case.
It seems to me that bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting weaker with the passage of time, even though there are some depressing happenings.
I don't see why no coiners and/or low coiners should not be establishing a reasonable position in bitcoin, which might be somewhere between 5% and 25%.. .. sure they could go lower or higher, but if they have not already established a position within that range, I don't see why they shouldn't.. .. yet sure, everyone is going to choose for himself.. and like you mentioned earlier, the ongoing hesitation of retail is not really seeming to slow down.. and, yeah, I guess I agree with you in regards to the observation that retail has not been seeming to be very excited about bitcoin in recent times.. maybe even preceding the Trump pump.. or at least since January 2025 when the first Trump pump correction played out..
Here comes the virtuous cycle.
I understand the "virtuous cycle" as a kind of false attribute that pumps beyond fundamentals based on "soft power" rather than "hard power" momentum.
I don't really like the packaging of bitcoin as a "virtual cycle," even if there might be some possible and arguable semblance of truth in such a conceptual framening.
Big up for that.
But what i won't do is getting too excited about that monthly RSI/StochRSI cross. Bear trend is still intact, Fear'n Greed is still below 50.
My opinion is, i rather lose a little advantage and wait until monthly RSI confirms above 20. This should have turned FnG above 50 by then.
I'd call anything else just gambling (and i always sucked at gambling)
EDIT: On the other hand, this April move is the perfect setup for a surprise crash in May. The hopium is quite strong. We saw that before. (but read my reply to cAPSLOCK, too).
I am not much of a fan of waiting for certain indicators before buying. Of course, my own buying tends to be mechanical rather than based on my perceptions of moves in the BTC price.. even though, sure, every once in a while I might make a buy or a sell based on some sentiment that I am experiencing.... yet I have frequently gotten bitten in the ass when I make such attempts to tweak upon a more mechanical application. I am not saying that I don't have regrets or feelings or angst from time to time in terms of how my mechanical applications seem to be playing out.
...Here comes the virtuous cycle.
This is so contrary to what has been. I'm quite desperate to finally know if this time it's really different (or not).
Interesting times as well.
However, as diamond holding most of my stash, i can only win.
EDIT2: Verdict: My brain says BUY, my guts say WAIT.
One of the good things of mechanical application is that there already tends to be a balance of being prepared for either price direction so long as it triggers, and the most nervous part seems to be when the price moves in either direction and the order is within dollars or pennies of being filled and it does not end up filling.. and so in that regard, the "loss" or perception of loss does not really add up to being any kind of a BIG DEAL, either way. In other words, the frustration of non-filling orders tends to be fleeting, at best.
Edit: By the way, in the past few minutes (was it 10 minutes?) as I was typing my post we had a quickie price jump (like a 1-minute candle?) from $78,600-ish to $79,157.. and so then when I glance back at the charts, I see that our so far local high of $79,500 from nearly 2 weeks ago has been the closest, so far, that "we" have gotten to $80k.. so surely $80k is within grasp.. but there seems to be ongoing resistance (and perhaps reluctance?) to get there..and even if such $80k-ish were to be broken through.. would it cause any cascading of UPpity?.. I tend to really appreciate cascading of UPpity, even though it is not a very common experience, even though it feels good, while
(and when) happening.
Poll
