Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KawasakiNinja1_]

Sorry, could you be more elaborate about this?

DCA: Dollar Cost Average. It means buying on a regular basis, so you don't have to wonder whether or not today is a good moment to buy.

Thanks for the explanation about this. Please, can you give more details or a link where I can find more about this because it's looking interesting and workable for me.

Hey, try to understand the main point, I'm making it simple, actually the full form of DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging. As far as I know, the main goal of this strategy is to buy regardless of the price for a certain period of time.

I think you should enter this link because all the information about DCA is mentioned there.

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): What It Is, How It Works, and Example https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

[Biodom]

Re MSaylor and bitcoin sells.
He has a trading opportunity in this order:
1. he can issue STRC
2. he can sell high cost btc batch, book a loss, but decrease cost per btc overall
3. simultaneously or one min later, he can use STRC $ proceeds to buy slightly more btc than he sold at essentially the same price.
4. Result: cost per btc is decreased, btc per share is increased, some loss is booked, but gains are increased (because of lower cost basis because he sold a currently losing position).
5. yes, this is financial engineering, in part based on no need to account for wash sale rules (albeit, i am not sure if wash sales rules apply to the corporate finances).

I am not sure how his price per coin is set up.

he could have his buys  separated in a manner a regular person does not have the ability to do.

My big trick as an individual was to buy .56 btc this year on kraken and PayPal

then give all my older coin to my wife as a gift.

so the .56 btc I purchased this year has a cost basis of 73k thus .56x73000=40,880

if I were to sell it all at 82,000x.56=45,920  I have a gain of about 5000 and I have a 17,000 carry from 2022 so the sale would be tax free and I would still have a carryover of 12,000

if coins go to 100k and I sell at 56,000-40,880=15,120  which against my 17,000 I am still tax free.

and I still am stacking the btc from the mining.  I have a much smaller and simpler setup than he does. but the tax rules of the usa are pretty wacky so I am sure he has a way to switch and maneuver coin in his favor.

His issues are when to hedge a bit. vs when to buy a bit.

has he reach 750,000 coins yet I lose track.

he's got 818,314 btc as of today.
btw, check out those cap gains tables...anything below $96700-no tax for morethan 12mo hold, however, ONLY if there is no other income, otherwise, 15%, most likely.

[Biodom]

On topic:

Prediction markets are very interesting and it's fun to see them start being quoted as a newsworthy metric in various media.

But too few people understand that Bitcoin is probably the best prediction market for a kind of summation of macro forces.

I would say the two biggest inputs into Bitcoin's sentiment from a global perspective would be the current perceived outcome of the world conflict and optimism around the passing of the Clarity Act in the US.

I don't mean to sound snooty, but Bitcoin is kind of an IQ test mixed with a bias test.  Once you see what it is, you can't unsee it and you begin to realize that there is an inevitable morphing that has to happen to the world system because it is now in existence.

But it takes a little bit of smarts (and luck) to get there early.  And bitcoin has given an unfair advantage in a way to Austrians and libertarian types because it checks off a lot of their boxes.

But the people moving towards Bitcoin understand some of these global things happening a little quicker than others because it's kind of a smart group.

So it seems that Bitcoin is anticipating the Clarity Act gets passed. And it seems to believe that it is going to benefit from the continued situation in the world as nations rebuild the order of things.

I am very bullish.  Surprise!  But we're gonna see sell-offs, maybe on the news, maybe on the lack of news, etc.


Off topic:
I know not everyone would agree with this, but I sure am glad I live in a state, in a country that allows me to open carry my handgun.

I actually 3D printed one recently. Now, I will not carry that until I am certain that it meets the legal requirements, but that too is a great freedom.

Re Clarity...i am not sure if it is even positive for btc.
In fact, i think that it is negative.

EDIT: CMC news-Morgan Stanley via Etrade is preparing to f* Coinbase by having "just" a 0.5% fee.
Those leeches at Coinbase would have to respond...sick and tired of their 0.4/0.8 scheme if you didn't trade $10K the month before.
I am sure someone would react by 0.25% or no fee, similar to stocks.

[WatChe]

hey buddy left bart standing on his fuckin head today nice!!!!

Oil is up once again and if oil is up then its not good for other markets.

Just not the ones where you use your debit card.

Oil prices are very much down now.
 
But the irony is that prices of items goes up when oil went up. But they never went down, if price of oil goes down. This is general practise at least in my country. Don't know whether same is the case in other countries also.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Odohu]

Bitcoin might just be going to 100k when everyone is relaxed that we are in a bear market.

Feels good to see the death of the 4 years cycle.

[cAPSLOCK]

On topic:

Prediction markets are very interesting and it's fun to see them start being quoted as a newsworthy metric in various media.

But too few people understand that Bitcoin is probably the best prediction market for a kind of summation of macro forces.

I would say the two biggest inputs into Bitcoin's sentiment from a global perspective would be the current perceived outcome of the world conflict and optimism around the passing of the Clarity Act in the US.

I don't mean to sound snooty, but Bitcoin is kind of an IQ test mixed with a bias test.  Once you see what it is, you can't unsee it and you begin to realize that there is an inevitable morphing that has to happen to the world system because it is now in existence.

But it takes a little bit of smarts (and luck) to get there early.  And bitcoin has given an unfair advantage in a way to Austrians and libertarian types because it checks off a lot of their boxes.

But the people moving towards Bitcoin understand some of these global things happening a little quicker than others because it's kind of a smart group.

So it seems that Bitcoin is anticipating the Clarity Act gets passed. And it seems to believe that it is going to benefit from the continued situation in the world as nations rebuild the order of things.

I am very bullish.  Surprise!  But we're gonna see sell-offs, maybe on the news, maybe on the lack of news, etc.


Off topic:
I know not everyone would agree with this, but I sure am glad I live in a state, in a country that allows me to open carry my handgun.

I actually 3D printed one recently. Now, I will not carry that until I am certain that it meets the legal requirements, but that too is a great freedom.

Re Clarity...i am not sure if it is even positive for btc.
In fact, i think that it is negative.

EDIT: CMC news-Morgan Stanley via Etrade is preparing to f* Coinbase by having "just" a 0.5% fee.
Those leeches at Coinbase would have to respond...sick and tired of their 0.4/0.8 scheme if you didn't trade $10K the month before.
I am sure someone would react by 0.25% or no fee, similar to stocks.

Oh, I totally agree with you. I think both the Genius and the Clarity Act together are taking a straight to the mark of the beast money. (literally or figuratively).

[OgNasty]

Oh, I totally agree with you. I think both the Genius and the Clarity Act together are taking a straight to the mark of the beast money. (literally or figuratively).

The Genius Act, The Clarity Act, Saylor saying he is going to start dumping Bitcoin… If you listen to the talking heads they’ll put you through an exercise of mental gymnastics to convince you these are good things. They aren’t…

[cAPSLOCK]

Oh, I totally agree with you. I think both the Genius and the Clarity Act together are taking a straight to the mark of the beast money. (literally or figuratively).

The Genius Act, The Clarity Act, Saylor saying he is going to start dumping Bitcoin… If you listen to the talking heads they’ll put you through an exercise of mental gymnastics to convince you these are good things. They aren’t…

Similarly, I agree. I think things like this are mixed bags, in fact. I think they have all kinds of downstream effects.

And sometimes I think theyre are a lot of wind and not much that matters.

Why do you think Bitcoin has been rallying to this point?

Just a normal technical uptrend?

[cAPSLOCK]

People have recently wisely suggested that maybe the sparkle fairy ought to get her face out of so many books. She's not good at studying anyway. So she's decided to take up mechanical bull riding..  Thinking obviously that this may be a useful skill sometime in the future.

[philipma1957]

Is the "bear market" over?
 Yes
 No - we need to sweep the low again
 No - we need to set a new low first
 No - other (explain below)
View results

so far 3 have said yes on the new poll


I am kind of lets see the price on Aug 1st
I am a definite maybe.

base on July 2019  88.6k would just about match that rally which ended up being veal not bull.  

So 90k would be a better comeback than the July 2019 veal rally.

and 100k would be a young bull no longer a baby or veal rally.

So for me to say the bear is over we need to become a yearling bull say 100k before or if we retreat under 72k


oh as to what is a baby bull:

"Understanding the Term “Baby Bull”
...
First, let’s break down the words. A bull is an adult male of the cattle species, usually kept for breeding purposes. However, when a bull is still very young, it goes by a different name. In simple terms, a baby bull is called a ‘bull calf’. "

https://completeera.com/what-is-a-baby-bull-called/#google_vignette



So we still have balls and are technically a 'bull calf' as of today




why that name it has balls and has not been converted to a steer

[OgNasty]

Oh, I totally agree with you. I think both the Genius and the Clarity Act together are taking a straight to the mark of the beast money. (literally or figuratively).

The Genius Act, The Clarity Act, Saylor saying he is going to start dumping Bitcoin… If you listen to the talking heads they’ll put you through an exercise of mental gymnastics to convince you these are good things. They aren’t…

Similarly, I agree. I think things like this are mixed bags, in fact. I think they have all kinds of downstream effects.

And sometimes I think theyre are a lot of wind and not much that matters.

Why do you think Bitcoin has been rallying to this point?

Just a normal technical uptrend?

This is nearly identical to rallies we've seen at this point in the cycle in the past.  I've been telling myself for months not to let myself be fooled by the inevitable head fake that was on the way.  Here we are.  Saylor was saying to sell your kidney and cash out your grandmother's retirement to buy more Bitcoin at $120K.  Now at $80K he's talking about how he's going to sell and people are twisting their brains to try and convince themselves this is bullish...  

Why is the market rallying?  People are buying the dip.  I myself have been buying since December using a small portion of the interest I'm receiving on my prior sales.  It is an attractive time to buy for those who sold the top.  That doesn't mean we have hit bottom.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Oh, I totally agree with you. I think both the Genius and the Clarity Act together are taking a straight to the mark of the beast money. (literally or figuratively).

The Genius Act, The Clarity Act, Saylor saying he is going to start dumping Bitcoin… If you listen to the talking heads they’ll put you through an exercise of mental gymnastics to convince you these are good things. They aren’t…

Similarly, I agree. I think things like this are mixed bags, in fact. I think they have all kinds of downstream effects.

And sometimes I think theyre are a lot of wind and not much that matters.

Why do you think Bitcoin has been rallying to this point?

Just a normal technical uptrend?

This is nearly identical to rallies we've seen at this point in the cycle in the past.  I've been telling myself for months not to let myself be fooled by the inevitable head fake that was on the way.  Here we are.  Saylor was saying to sell your kidney and cash out your grandmother's retirement to buy more Bitcoin at $120K.  Now at $80K he's talking about how he's going to sell and people are twisting their brains to try and convince themselves this is bullish...  

Why is the market rallying?  People are buying the dip.  I myself have been buying since December using a small portion of the interest I'm receiving on my prior sales.  It is an attractive time to buy for those who sold the top.  That doesn't mean we have hit bottom.

we could be on par with July 2019 and we would top out at 88k and decline.

or we could go over 88k and be on a new cycle pattern.

btw I would argue that doing the 2019 rally in 2026 would be 1 year quicker than the 'norm' four year cycle.

So

a) go over 88k soon  and rise higher = not the same as the 4 year price cycle
b) reach 88k in May-July 2026 and drop back = not the same as the 4 year price cycle
c) broke the 2021 hi in 2024 before the 1/2 ing
d) retreated and dropped to 59-60k in feb 2026 from 126k oct 2025 not the same

both the peak  in oct and the 'bottom' were early

time will tell but a,b,c,d are all "different" then early cycles.

c) can not go bad. that is a fact.

but a) b) d) could get closer to the four year pattern

[cAPSLOCK]

Is the "bear market" over?
 Yes
 No - we need to sweep the low again
 No - we need to set a new low first
 No - other (explain below)
View results

so far 3 have said yes on the new poll


I am kind of lets see the price on Aug 1st
I am a definite maybe.

base on July 2019  88.6k would just about match that rally which ended up being veal not bull.  

So 90k would be a better comeback than the July 2019 veal rally.

and 100k would be a young bull no longer a baby or veal rally.

So for me to say the bear is over we need to become a yearling bull say 100k before or if we retreat under 72k


oh as to what is a baby bull:

"Understanding the Term “Baby Bull”
...
First, let’s break down the words. A bull is an adult male of the cattle species, usually kept for breeding purposes. However, when a bull is still very young, it goes by a different name. In simple terms, a baby bull is called a ‘bull calf’. "

https://completeera.com/what-is-a-baby-bull-called/#google_vignette



So we still have balls and are technically a 'bull calf' as of today




why that name it has balls and has not been converted to a steer

I really couldn't tell you, but what I do know is you posted this at exactly the right time because I feel like we are going to move one way or the other pretty big pretty soon.

There, it will be 82 until November.

[OgNasty]

Oh, I totally agree with you. I think both the Genius and the Clarity Act together are taking a straight to the mark of the beast money. (literally or figuratively).

The Genius Act, The Clarity Act, Saylor saying he is going to start dumping Bitcoin… If you listen to the talking heads they’ll put you through an exercise of mental gymnastics to convince you these are good things. They aren’t…

Similarly, I agree. I think things like this are mixed bags, in fact. I think they have all kinds of downstream effects.

And sometimes I think theyre are a lot of wind and not much that matters.

Why do you think Bitcoin has been rallying to this point?

Just a normal technical uptrend?

This is nearly identical to rallies we've seen at this point in the cycle in the past.  I've been telling myself for months not to let myself be fooled by the inevitable head fake that was on the way.  Here we are.  Saylor was saying to sell your kidney and cash out your grandmother's retirement to buy more Bitcoin at $120K.  Now at $80K he's talking about how he's going to sell and people are twisting their brains to try and convince themselves this is bullish...  

Why is the market rallying?  People are buying the dip.  I myself have been buying since December using a small portion of the interest I'm receiving on my prior sales.  It is an attractive time to buy for those who sold the top.  That doesn't mean we have hit bottom.

we could be on par with July 2019 and we would top out at 88k and decline.

or we could go over 88k and be on a new cycle pattern.

We could be, but that wouldn't be a 4-year cycle, would have nothing to do with the halving or investor psychology, and definitely wouldn't be the pattern repeating as it already has every 4 years.

Anything can happen and as I've stated the 4-year cycle predicts tops, not bottoms.  However, the fractal is very clear that we have further down to go if you are a repeating patterns guy.  We are in the 2014, 2018, 2022 stage of the fractal pattern right now, not 2019.  Again, would love to be wrong...

[AlcoHoDL]

No - we need to set a new low first

Sorry guys, it is what it is. Feelings don't count or matter...

An ATH this year would destroy the dreadful "pattern" we all hate so much. I really hope it happens. Will see...

BTW, sell order still unfilled. Just a few hundred bucks short.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

No - we need to set a new low first

Sorry guys, it is what it is. Feelings don't count or matter...

An ATH this year would destroy the dreadful "pattern" we all hate so much. I really hope it happens. Will see...

BTW, sell order still unfilled. Just a few hundred bucks short.

yeah no question we need higher prices this year to break the 4 year bear bull price pattern


but if you go back and look at gold from say 1992 to 2003

we kind of slotted for 11 years at 200-400 an oz.

now a slot pattern for btc would not be expected by any of us. and mining would be turned upside down by that. I am kind of decently positioned even a downturn would be okay as long as it takes a few months for the down torn to happen. Ie hold the 80k till August 1

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Not going to vote in the poll because I really do not know. Usually I have an idea what will happen but I just don’t know at the moment.

The Clarity Act could get signed into law, as is being reported by July 4th which could trigger the mother of all bull markets. More macro BS, wars etc, recession could trigger the next leg down.

I just have no idea, I am 50/50 on it but I sure hope the bottom is already in and we are soon set to go higher.