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Poll
Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 15 (60%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 3 (12%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 4 (16%)
No - other (explain below) - 3 (12%)
Total Voters: 25

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26969275 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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May 06, 2026, 09:01:17 PM


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May 06, 2026, 09:54:43 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (3), LFC_Bitcoin (2)

No - other

Operating under the assumption that the "bull" market was surpressed with leveraged paper instruments, it stands to reason that real coin has been scooped up by the same actors, which explains why both the bull and "bear" have felt extremely weak and fake: I'm not convinced either has occurred, especially when overlaid with other credit/liquidity/energy/etc nonsense and prior amplitudes/troughs. Chopping until fiat money expanders' bags are sufficiently full before a real overextension and crash.
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May 06, 2026, 10:01:13 PM


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May 06, 2026, 10:46:01 PM

R.I.P.

TED TURNER


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Turner
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May 06, 2026, 11:01:14 PM


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May 06, 2026, 11:19:14 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

No - other

Operating under the assumption that the "bull" market was surpressed with leveraged paper instruments, it stands to reason that real coin has been scooped up by the same actors, which explains why both the bull and "bear" have felt extremely weak and fake: I'm not convinced either has occurred, especially when overlaid with other credit/liquidity/energy/etc nonsense and prior amplitudes/troughs. Chopping until fiat money expanders' bags are sufficiently full before a real overextension and crash.

I like this idea 222k this fall then we crash.
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May 07, 2026, 12:01:16 AM


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May 07, 2026, 01:01:14 AM


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May 07, 2026, 01:16:57 AM

John Bollinger with some bullish comments about Bitcoin. A lot of people listen when this guy talks… Surprisingly, a lot of the comments don’t agree with him.

https://x.com/bbands/status/2052103511463412033

“Yesterday our trend model for Bitcoin turned positive and we took a position in our Tactica program, which is now fully invested. $BTC”
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May 07, 2026, 02:01:15 AM


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May 07, 2026, 02:17:48 AM
Merited by OgNasty (1)

John Bollinger with some bullish comments about Bitcoin. A lot of people listen when this guy talks… Surprisingly, a lot of the comments don’t agree with him.

https://x.com/bbands/status/2052103511463412033

“Yesterday our trend model for Bitcoin turned positive and we took a position in our Tactica program, which is now fully invested. $BTC”

Well, I don't look at Twitter much anymore, but I'll predict what the comments are saying.

The coin looks like it's right at local resistance and it's kind of a up-down thing. If it bounces back down, he will have bought it at a top, but not the top that lasts that long. He'll just have to wait through a little extra time.

He's a pretty smart fellow, though. Not very many other people have a trading indicator named after them.
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May 07, 2026, 03:01:24 AM


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May 07, 2026, 03:16:53 AM

Wrong poll imo

Beat over yes or no is one thing

But the following 2 options are a bit off never there’s a need to sweep the lows or set a new low etc Roll Eyes

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May 07, 2026, 03:22:17 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

No - we need to set a new low first

Sorry guys, it is what it is. Feelings don't count or matter...

An ATH this year would destroy the dreadful "pattern" we all hate so much. I really hope it happens. Will see...

BTW, sell order still unfilled. Just a few hundred bucks short. Tongue

Patterns are to be broken, why not now….

Btw going down to a new low would feel bad for several months
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May 07, 2026, 03:49:54 AM

No - we need to set a new low first

Sorry guys, it is what it is. Feelings don't count or matter...

An ATH this year would destroy the dreadful "pattern" we all hate so much. I really hope it happens. Will see...

BTW, sell order still unfilled. Just a few hundred bucks short. Tongue

Not to beat over a dead horse again, but to me it is also simple:

1. If bitcoin goes down again 70-75%, it would mean that we are all living in something like Matrix aka simulation.
2. To me, bitcoin price movement does not or at least should not resemble a planet on an elliptical orbit (or any other orbit).
3. Maybe MS is gearing up to sell some btc to the space aliens? lol
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May 07, 2026, 04:29:23 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1)

The strongest currents
Beneath the surface - Moving
My boat swept away
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May 07, 2026, 04:56:57 AM

No - we need to set a new low first

Sorry guys, it is what it is. Feelings don't count or matter...

An ATH this year would destroy the dreadful "pattern" we all hate so much. I really hope it happens. Will see...

BTW, sell order still unfilled. Just a few hundred bucks short. Tongue

Patterns are to be broken, why not now….

Btw going down to a new low would feel bad for several months


[...as above...]


Not to beat over a dead horse again, but to me it is also simple:

1. If bitcoin goes down again 70-75%, it would mean that we are all living in something like Matrix aka simulation.
2. To me, bitcoin price movement does not or at least should not resemble a planet on an elliptical orbit (or any other orbit).
3. Maybe MS is gearing up to sell some btc to the space aliens? lol

Guys, I also want the pattern to be broken. I want it really badly. I'm currently in a "HODL & sell-when-you-must" state, my buying days are over. Any time the price drops, it's bad for me, as is for any HODLer.

But... Bitcoin doesn't care about what we want. It will follow its complex, often chaotic, and certainly unpredictable "laws". Bitcoin is math, science, and a hell of a lot of dice rolling inside the mix.

Only time will tell us where it's going.
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May 07, 2026, 05:18:57 AM
Last edit: May 07, 2026, 05:47:01 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Currently, at this rate, buying is ok, or waiting is better. Any solid suggestion.

If you are a newbie no coiner or low coiner, then waiting does not tend to be a good strategy.

If you are a newbie no coiner or low coiner, you need to start to turn yourself into a coiner by buying bitcoin regularly within the context of your discretionary funds.  I tend to like buying weekly and getting into a habit of buying every week.

If you want to save up to 20% of your regular BTC buys for buying dips that may or may not happen, that is up to you, yet it tends to take a decently long time to build up a bitcoin stash, and many guys are not really able to do it in a cycle or two unless they are able to front load their investment in some way, whether lump sum, DCA, buying on dip or a combination, and yeah, I am not much of a fan for buying on dip for newbies, since the dips might not end up happening, yet if you are buying every week, you will end up catching dips anyhow, and perhaps after buying a cycle or two you will figure out how many bitcoin you think that you need.. which come from ongoing buying, not fucking around with trading (which seems to be where your head is right now.. and trading tends to be a way more uncertain approach in regards to making sure that your bitcoin size is ongoingly growing.

Currently, at this rate, buying is ok, or waiting is better. Any solid suggestion.
No solid suggestion in this market, but with the current rising rate I feel that we are quite close to a 100k jump

Huh?

You @alexrossi have been registered here since March 2013, so for you, you have had plenty of time to accumulate bitcoin.  @weallbitcoiners, on the other hand, is a newbie and likely a no coiner or a low coiner.. and how the fuck are newbies supposed to get started in bitcoin, from your perspective?  By waiting?  

Waiting does not come off as either a serious approach to bitcoin, or an approach that is going to get newbie weallbitcoiners off of lowcoiner (or worse yet, no coiner) status.   The only way to get off lowcoiner or no coiner status is to start buying, and most likely buying regularly, consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively (if he can get his cashflow management under control?).    

Then after a cycle or two of ongoing bitcoin accumulation, then maybe at that time, there might be enough of a bitcoin stash that might justify fucking around with waiting for dips that might or might not happen, might become relevant.

Currently, at this rate, buying is ok, or waiting is better. Any solid suggestion.
Be like jjg and dca.

I am not the ONLY one that both advocates for (and did) DCA to establish a decently solid bitcoin stash, even though I am not opposed to throwing in lump sum buying and buying on dips, too (though buying on dips tends to be inferior and better as a supplement)..

I would imagine that DCA was probably happening well before the term was popularized by Benjamin Graham in his 1947 book, The Intelligent Investor. (which I looked up such reference on the interwebs)

I think that many of us are in great shape as compared with folks who might have had invested in other things since 2020.
C'mon, the great shape must have to do with the challenge you've been doing since 2024 too! Cheesy

Sure, but I was still referring to financial shape, and maybe getting into the idea that time in the market is better than timing the market, and I have a hard time imagine very many scenarios of guys in bitcoin less than 5 years that have been able to really establish a bitcoin position in which they would be able to rest in peace in regards to their bitcoin holdings, unless they were able to front load their bitcoin, and even come kind of a frontloading would have had rare odds of getting them an average bitcoin buy price of less than $20k per coin... which does not seem to be enough to get to fuck you status, if something like that might be the goal.. or even to advantage from the ongoing and seemingly accelerated debasement of the dollar (and various other fiats) over the past 5-ish years.

base on July 2019  88.6k would just about match that rally which ended up being veal not bull.  
So 90k would be a better comeback than the July 2019 veal rally.

I don't know from where you are getting your data.. yet the relevant portion of the April to July 2019 rally was that the BTC price had gone from $4,200 to $13,880 (around a 3.3x pump), and then the corrected back into the $7k's-ish.. and kind of bounced between $7k and $10k for several months until the March 2020 crashening - which might be considered as an aberration, by some bitcoin "analysts"

and 100k would be a young bull no longer a baby or veal rally.
So for me to say the bear is over we need to become a yearling bull say 100k before or if we retreat under 72k
oh as to what is a baby bull:

"Understanding the Term “Baby Bull”
First, let’s break down the words. A bull is an adult male of the cattle species, usually kept for breeding purposes. However, when a bull is still very young, it goes by a different name. In simple terms, a baby bull is called a ‘bull calf’. "
https://completeera.com/what-is-a-baby-bull-called/#google_vignette

So we still have balls and are technically a 'bull calf' as of today
why that name it has balls and has not been converted to a steer

Aside from your seemingly quasi-delusional ramblings, getting above $100k and stayng there for a few days (perhaps close a weekly candle there) would be pretty strong evidence that we have gone from bear to bull.

Otherwise we are still in a bear, until we get some more powerful signs to the contrary.  #justsaying.
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