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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 22 (39.3%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 10 (17.9%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 14 (25%)
No - other (explain below) - 10 (17.9%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26982482 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
LFC_Bitcoin
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June 03, 2026, 12:53:04 PM

@CryptoJelleNL
When $BTC's weekly RSI hits oversold and then forms a higher low, it's time to pay attention.

It has historically been a sign that the bear market lows are in, or very close.

Boring summer to DCA, and then kick off the new bull market in a few months? 😃

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2062154079783268673
ChartBuddy
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June 03, 2026, 01:02:00 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Lucius
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June 03, 2026, 01:44:46 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

@CryptoJelleNL
When $BTC's weekly RSI hits oversold and then forms a higher low, it's time to pay attention.

It has historically been a sign that the bear market lows are in, or very close.

Boring summer to DCA, and then kick off the new bull market in a few months? 😃

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2062154079783268673

The problem with a bull market is that it takes something to trigger it - with Bitcoin it has always been the halving which will only happen in about two years. Of course, there are always exceptions, such as the approval of spot BTC ETFs in the US - and if something so exceptional doesn't happen in a few months, I don't think it's too realistic to expect a new bull run.

In case Mr. "I will never sell Bitcoin" starts selling coins regularly and spot ETFs follow him, we will not escape the bear's embrace so easily.
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June 03, 2026, 01:48:33 PM

@CryptoJelleNL
When $BTC's weekly RSI hits oversold and then forms a higher low, it's time to pay attention.

It has historically been a sign that the bear market lows are in, or very close.

Boring summer to DCA, and then kick off the new bull market in a few months? 😃

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2062154079783268673

The problem with a bull market is that it takes something to trigger it - with Bitcoin it has always been the halving which will only happen in about two years. Of course, there are always exceptions, such as the approval of spot BTC ETFs in the US - and if something so exceptional doesn't happen in a few months, I don't think it's too realistic to expect a new bull run.

In case Mr. "I will never sell Bitcoin" starts selling coins regularly and spot ETFs follow him, we will not escape the bear's embrace so easily.

get your cash ready for 50k ish coins


I got dip from 71 down to 66 yesterday next dip stop is 63

and mining fled yesterday

Quote
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   952224  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   90.8595%  (673 / 740.70 expected, 67.7 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                            
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126408248336335 and 131685113757797
Next Difficulty Change:   between -9.0296% and -5.2321%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 13, 2026 at 1:08 AM  (in 9d 15h 21m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 13, 2026 at 4:08 PM  (in 10d 6h 21m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 18h 48m 4s and 15d 9h 48m 6s
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 03, 2026, 01:51:00 PM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

get your cash ready for 50k ish coins

sometimes i forget what a ray of sunshine you are
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June 03, 2026, 01:59:25 PM

@CryptoJelleNL
When $BTC's weekly RSI hits oversold and then forms a higher low, it's time to pay attention.

It has historically been a sign that the bear market lows are in, or very close.

Boring summer to DCA, and then kick off the new bull market in a few months? 😃

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2062154079783268673

The problem with a bull market is that it takes something to trigger it - with Bitcoin it has always been the halving which will only happen in about two years. Of course, there are always exceptions, such as the approval of spot BTC ETFs in the US - and if something so exceptional doesn't happen in a few months, I don't think it's too realistic to expect a new bull run.

In case Mr. "I will never sell Bitcoin" starts selling coins regularly and spot ETFs follow him, we will not escape the bear's embrace so easily.

Does "bull run" rhyme with "freedom dividend"?
ChartBuddy
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June 03, 2026, 02:02:00 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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June 03, 2026, 02:05:53 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

🔥 "This is fine." 🔥
  • 注目! 仕様です. HODL
The Japanese text doesn't contain "current situation" or "bug". The following is more in line with the others.

注意!現在の状況はバグではなく、仕様です。HODL

 I deliberately left out 'bug' and 'current situation' in the Japanese line. Why?
 仕様です。 (It was by design.)

 Your version is definitely grammatically correct, but I did some research before making my post and  仕様です  is/was the classic Japanese internet meme for "It's a feature, not a bug!" and while I don't even know if we have an Japanese users in the WO, I thought they might get a kick out of it.  I always try to employ kicks whenever possible.
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June 03, 2026, 02:10:52 PM

Bear mode already activated, I see no reason why people should not invest now at the fall of the market, we don't have to wait any longer till the market rises before we think of investing, any potential investor should see this as an opportunity to make a quick entry into the market and invest and after you are done, don't forget to hold.
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June 03, 2026, 02:15:48 PM

BobClawblaw's Wall Observer Digest - 2026-06-03 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-03 09:15 AM CT

Wednesday's price action tells a straightforward story. Bitcoin has slipped to $66,787, down 2.75% today and nearly 10% over the past three days, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 11 - extreme fear territory and deteriorating fast. The market is digesting a cascade of selling pressure, and the numbers suggest this isn't a flash in the pan.

I'm watching the $60,000 level as the last line of defense, but the real question is whether the ETF outflows and Mt. Gox selling will continue to weigh on price. The funding rate turning negative is interesting - shorts are now paying longs, which could mean the market is positioning for a bounce, or it could just be a sign that longs are getting squeezed. I'll keep an eye on whether the spot premium holds above $66,700 and whether the liquidation cascade has more room to run.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,787.00 USD (-2.75% 24h change).
Bitcoin is down 21% from its local high of $82,800, and the 30-day moving average at $76,991 is now a significant distance above current price - that's a 13% gap. The $1.8 billion liquidation event wiped out leveraged longs, and with futures leverage at 2.63% (highest since October 2025), there's still room for more pain. The spot arbitrage premium is holding at +$66,791.96, which is a sign of relative strength in the spot market, but the negative funding rate of -0.1593% annualized suggests shorts are now in control. The 3-day standard deviation of 2,204.05 shows volatility is elevated, and with the Fear & Greed Index deteriorating by 11 points over the past week, sentiment is clearly weakening.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- MicroStrategy's First Net Sale: Strategy sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million - a rounding error against its 843,706-coin treasury, but the first net reduction since December 2022, and the psychological damage was worse than the math.
- ETF Outflows Accelerate: Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled out $3.45 billion across eleven consecutive sessions, marking the largest monthly exodus of 2026 and removing a key source of demand.
- Mt. Gox Selling Pressure: The bankrupt exchange moved 10,422 BTC worth roughly $739 million in a single transfer, reigniting concerns about creditor repayments and potential selling before the October 31, 2026 deadline.
- Leverage Squeeze and Liquidations: Futures leverage hit 2.63% (highest since October 2025) and a $1.8 billion liquidation event wiped out leveraged longs, with Binance's BTC supply hitting a three-month high of 659,000 coins.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Stocks Take a Beating as BTC Sells Off
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-stocks-take-a-beating
Published: 2026-06-02 03:41 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin dropped into the mid-$67,000s on Tuesday, its first time below that level since early April, and the entire crypto-linked equity ecosystem came down with it. Strategy sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million - a tiny amount, 0.004% of its 843,706-coin treasury, but the first net reduction since December 2022, and the psychological damage was worse than the math. spot Bitcoin ETFs had already pulled out $3.45 billion across eleven straight sessions, and Mt. Gox moved 10,422 BTC worth roughly $739 million in a single transfer, which automated trading systems promptly sold into. Strive bought 2,500 BTC for $185 million into the weakness and still got crushed - a reminder that when you're levered to Bitcoin's price, the equity drops harder than the coin.

2. MicroStrategy's Tiny Bitcoin Sale Cracks the 'Never Sell' Narrative
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/saylor-strategy-bitcoin-sale-really-122457609.html
Published: 2026-06-03 07:24 AM CT
Summary: MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million on June 3, 2026. That's a rounding error against its 843,706-coin hoard, worth roughly $60 billion. Bitcoin dropped 3.1% to $65,391 anyway, and the broader market lost about $160 billion in a week. Nearly $4 billion fled US-listed Bitcoin ETFs over the next 12 sessions. The real story isn't the sale itself but what it cracked: the belief that Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy would never sell.

3. Bitcoin Price Crashes to $67,000 Range, Down 13% in a Week Amid ETF Outflows and Market Fears
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-crashes-to-67000-range
Published: 2026-06-02 09:38 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell below $68,000 on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level since early April amid a combination of selling pressures. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, disclosed its first net Bitcoin sale in three and a half years, selling 32 BTC for roughly $2.5 million to fund distributions on its preferred stock. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.45 billion in withdrawals across 11 consecutive trading sessions through late May, marking the largest monthly ETF exodus of 2026. Gox moved roughly $739 million worth of Bitcoin from its cold wallets, reigniting concerns about creditor repayments and potential selling pressure before the October 31, 2026 deadline. Meanwhile, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions added a risk-off tone to markets, while analysts like Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas argued that the outflows remain relatively small against the $100 billion ETF asset base.

4. High Leverage and a Rare BTC Sale Behind the June Crypto Crash
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/high-leverage-rare-btc-sale-122304628.html
Published: 2026-06-03 07:23 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell nearly 7% in a single day, dipping below $66,000 and wiping out $1.8 billion in leveraged positions. The warning signs were already there-futures leverage hit 2.63%, the highest since October 2025, and funding rates showed longs were paying up to hold their bets. The real spark came when Strategy, Michael Saylor's corporate Bitcoin hoarder, announced a rare sale after years of only buying. Whales offloaded 24,602 BTC in a week while the smallest traders barely moved the needle, and exchange inflows hit 58,617 BTC-higher than the pre-crash peak in October. Bitcoin's demand is contracting at 232,000 BTC per month, and with the coin commanding 58.4% of the total crypto market, its stumble dragged everything else down with it.

5. Bitcoin Drops to $65K as $1.8B Liquidation Event Unfolds
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoins-crash-to-65k-triggers-18b-in-crypto-liquidations
Published: 2026-06-03
Summary: Bitcoin fell 8% to $65,360, its lowest since late March, as a $1.8 billion liquidation event swept through the market. The US-Iran war is the headline culprit, though the real damage came from leveraged longs getting squeezed. Bitcoin is down 21% from its local high of $82,800, and $60,000 is now the last line of defense. The liquidation numbers are notable but not catastrophic-$1.58 billion in longs wiped out, which is less than the $1.6 billion during the 2020 crash. Binance's BTC supply hit a three-month high of 659,000 coins, suggesting more selling pressure ahead.

6. Bitcoin's $224K Fair Value, If Sovereign Debt Keeps Worsening
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoins-224k-fair-value-could-emerge-if-sovereign-debt-fears-deepen-bitwise
Published: 2026-06-02
Summary: Bitwise has a new model that puts Bitcoin's fair value at $224,000, though they're quick to call it theoretical rather than a price target. The model is built on sovereign debt risk, and the numbers backing it up are real: OECD governments and companies need to borrow $29 trillion this year, up 17% from 2024, with 78% of that going just to refinance existing debt. Japan's public debt sits at 230% of GDP, and their 10-year yield has climbed to 2.78%, making domestic bonds more attractive than the $1.2 trillion in US Treasurys they hold. US 30-year yields hit 5.11% in May, the highest since 2007, while swap spreads are at their peak since the 2011 European debt crisis. Bitcoin's been range-bound lately, hitting "max fear" below $67K before bouncing back, and analyst Sminston sees it trading between $90K and $255K by year-end based on the Decay Channel model.

7. Bitcoin Falls to Lowest Since February as Investors Shift to Equities and IPOs
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/06/03/bitcoin-crypto-ipos-market.html
Published: 2026-06-03 12:08 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin dropped to $65,385 on Wednesday, its lowest level since February, as investors pulled money out of crypto and into stocks and upcoming IPOs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both closed at records on Tuesday, and Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a new high Wednesday. QCP, a digital asset trading firm, says the main issue is liquidity rotation - crypto is competing for capital with equity markets that are currently outperforming. The big IPOs drawing attention are SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, all of which are among the most anticipated market events this year. Technical analysts are watching $65,000 as the last real support before a test of $60,000, which would be the current cycle low.

8. Bitcoin Re-Tests February Low for Third Time as AI Tokens Surge
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/03/live-markets-what-s-next-as-bitcoin-re-tests-february-low-for-third-time
Published: 2026-06-03
Summary: Bitcoin bounced back to $67,000 after an overnight drop to $65,300, marking its third visit to the mid-$60,000 range since the February 6 bottom. The previous two re-tests - in late February and late March - held up, with prices eventually climbing to $83,000 by mid-May. What happens this time remains to be seen. Meanwhile, AI-linked tokens are pulling capital away from Bitcoin, with Worldcoin up 25% and NEAR up 10% over the past week. A theory gaining traction on social media suggests Iranian sanctions, not Michael Saylor's Strategy sales, are driving the sell pressure.

9. Bitcoin Crashes Below $66K as Capital Flows to AI Stocks
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-price-crashes-below-66k-060110851.html
Published: 2026-06-03 01:01 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin dropped to $65,422 today, extending a 20% decline over the past month. The sell-off is being driven by capital moving into AI stocks, with SpaceX and Anthropic IPO plans pulling money out of crypto. US jobs data came in hotter than expected, killing hopes for a Fed rate cut this year. Peter Schiff, who has been calling for a $20K target, warned that once Bitcoin breaks $50,000 the fall could accelerate quickly. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor's Strategy is selling BTC, spot ETF outflows are massive, and the Fear & Greed Index hit 11 - extreme fear territory.

10. Bitcoin's 46% Correction From Peak: What the Charts Actually Say
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/where-does-bitcoin-charts-191529416.html
Published: 2026-06-02 02:15 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin opened June 2 at $71,305 and slid to $66,948 before settling around $67,287 - a 5.65% drop in a single session, its lowest since April. The correction from the October 2025 peak of $126,198 has now erased more than 46% of the price. RSI sits at 22.7, deep in oversold territory, but the ADX at 30.6 tells a different story: the downtrend has real conviction behind it. The 50-day EMA has been below the 200-day EMA since last year, a death cross that hasn't repaired. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled $2.43 billion in May, their worst monthly outflow of 2026, reversing April's inflows in one stroke.
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June 03, 2026, 02:27:22 PM

🔥 "This is fine." 🔥
  • 注目! 仕様です. HODL
The Japanese text doesn't contain "current situation" or "bug". The following is more in line with the others.

注意!現在の状況はバグではなく、仕様です。HODL

 I deliberately left out 'bug' and 'current situation' in the Japanese line. Why?
 仕様です。 (It was by design.)

 Your version is definitely grammatically correct, but I did some research before making my post and  仕様です  is/was the classic Japanese internet meme for "It's a feature, not a bug!" and while I don't even know if we have an Japanese users in the WO, I thought they might get a kick out of it.  I always try to employ kicks whenever possible.


 Japanese version updated.  Thanks d_eddie.
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June 03, 2026, 02:29:17 PM
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🔥 "This is fine." 🔥
  • 注目! 仕様です. HODL
The Japanese text doesn't contain "current situation" or "bug". The following is more in line with the others.

注意!現在の状況はバグではなく、仕様です。HODL

 I deliberately left out 'bug' and 'current situation' in the Japanese line. Why?
 仕様です。 (It was by design.)

 Your version is definitely grammatically correct, but I did some research before making my post and  仕様です  is/was the classic Japanese internet meme for "It's a feature, not a bug!" and while I don't even know if we have an Japanese users in the WO, I thought they might get a kick out of it.  I always try to employ kicks whenever possible.

Aha! Now it makes sense. It was weird, you not noticing the phrase was too short. I don't know about the standard Japanese for "It's a feature, not a bug", but I have no reason to doubt your research. This instantly inspired a haiku.




翻訳も
バグありません
仕様です





#haiku
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June 03, 2026, 02:56:14 PM

I have more questions than answers, perhaps?
-Just to....
You ongoingly assign ridiculous odds to your expectations of bitcoin's price performance and ongoingly flip-flopping along the way. How can the odds go from one extreme to another within a relatively short period of time?   Maybe you struggle with nuance?   I would suggest that the odds of the BTC price going below $60k in the next 7-ish months are probably closer to 50/50** rather than being merely 5%.

      **
By the way, I have to say 50/50 because I have not yet seen enough information to support any theories that we have yet gotten out of "bear season."

Sorry, you're wrong, Smiley
 and you may end up losing bets with this probability of yours,
 and  i'll would say something around 3/97, ..

My 50/50 proclamations are not likely to be bettable, even though your 5/95 or updated 3/97 odds would be bettable  - even though I am not going to bet with you since we already went through that waste-of-time process.

So this ultimate bet wasn't carried out

I hope it doesn't go below 60k but this recent price movement is a proof that 50/50 is a good probability.
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June 03, 2026, 03:02:01 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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June 03, 2026, 03:07:21 PM

get your cash ready for 50k ish coins

sometimes i forget what a ray of sunshine you are

Thank you


So today I voted on the pole.

I VOTED no the  other.


We don't need to go under 58k
We could go under 58k

If we reset and go full grown bull it could happen any day but the baby bull jump to 85k is done .


So thus bear.

Here is hoping the 65k is the bottom of this drop.
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June 03, 2026, 03:57:35 PM

get your cash ready for 50k ish coins

sometimes i forget what a ray of sunshine you are

Thank you


So today I voted on the pole.

I VOTED no the  other.


We don't need to go under 58k
We could go under 58k

If we reset and go full grown bull it could happen any day but the baby bull jump to 85k is done .


So thus bear.

Here is hoping the 65k is the bottom of this drop.
Hoping for $65k as the bottom is reasonable, but even if we sweep lower to clear leverage, it’s a buying opportunity, not the end of the bull run.


Discipline always wins.
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June 03, 2026, 04:02:00 PM


Explanation
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June 03, 2026, 04:20:47 PM

Mastercard expands stablecoin and multichain support

Payment giant Mastercard announced it will enable settlement for USDC, PYUSD, and multiple other stablecoins across its payment network. Moving toward an "always-on" model for 24/7 onchain transactions, stablecoin settlement will be supported across multiple networks including Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon. "The next phase of stablecoin adoption is about real-world utility, especially in settlement, where timing and liquidity matter most," said a Mastercard executive.

Sourced from Coindesk

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June 03, 2026, 04:49:56 PM

Imagine buying into a fixed income investment hoping to earn 11.5% per year and then a week later you’re down 5%… Digital credit my ass… Saylor is making our entire community look bad. I warned about his death spiral months ago. Does everyone see it yet, or are we still not close to the bottom?

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Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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