Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

my 63636.30 downward death spiral did not hit yet

if it does I will  set more steps down the spiral

as of today I go down to 56565.60

[ESG]

I have more questions than answers, perhaps?

-Just to....

You ongoingly assign ridiculous odds to your expectations of bitcoin's price performance and ongoingly flip-flopping along the way. How can the odds go from one extreme to another within a relatively short period of time?   Maybe you struggle with nuance?   I would suggest that the odds of the BTC price going below $60k in the next 7-ish months are probably closer to 50/50^** rather than being merely 5%.

      **
By the way, I have to say 50/50 because I have not yet seen enough information to support any theories that we have yet gotten out of "bear season."

Sorry, you're wrong,
 and you may end up losing bets with this probability of yours,
 and  i'll would say something around 3/97, ..

My 50/50 proclamations are not likely to be bettable, even though your 5/95 or updated 3/97 odds would be bettable  - even though I am not going to bet with you since we already went through that waste-of-time process.

So this ultimate bet wasn't carried out

I hope it doesn't go below 60k but this recent price movement is a proof that 50/50 is a good probability.

I can say that the odds of staying below 60k have increased by 2%, now it's 95% that the price won't go below 60k this year :{
#

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[PrivacyG]

Crap.  It looks like I almost missed another Bitcoin death as the last time I checked the price it was still around the 80s.  I barely even check the charts these days and when I do, I have my ChartBuddy to help me with it.  No animations, no extra loading time, no extra clicks, real time updates all the time.  Perfect!

Anyway.  How long will Bitcoin have to suffer this time until it finally dies?  Again..

This is becoming a 'if I had a Dollar every time..', but I would adjust it to, if I had a Sat every time Bitcoin died..  I would not have a whole Bitcoin but still.

[cAPSLOCK]

Do you guys really not understand this or are you just being argumentative?

Just a few observations.

First, do you realize how much for gaslighting us with this whole argumentative question? You seem to be looking for a fight.

Secondly, you keep speaking to the entire thread as if we're all arguing with you.

But finally, I think almost everyone here understands that Saylor is a risk. And that microstrategy has set up these convoluted financial instruments as some kind of sketchy way to collect up more Bitcoin than any of us are comfortable with an individual (person or corporation) having*.  And not only might he have something to do with any future crashes of the price, but he's also pointed a giant target on his back as he waves his balls at all the banks.

So I feel like you're kind of shadow boxing, man. I don't know who you're fighting with.  

And I'm not trying to be a dick, but it kind of comes off as you're missing something huge in your life or this is connected to some old trauma.

I mean, the only reason I guess that is because that's how my own life is gone. I've had to make peace with certain areas of my soul... destroy others.

*as I often say, Bitcoin has to withstand this. Anything trying to do what Bitcoin is trying to do would have to withstand this. There is no other path.

I was talking to the person I quoted (and to a lesser extent the person who merited his post) obviously.

I’m actually extremely busy and spending my time to help people understand what is happening in the market since so many on this thread are clueless and in denial. A thankless job.

I am sorry for how your life has gone. Mine has been pretty awesome. Wouldn’t trade places with anyone. Don’t project on me. I get paid to post here, was stuck waiting in line at the post office and felt like making a couple bucks while I waited. I’m not battling trauma. Lol. Why make it personal and try to insult me when I’m trying to educate folks and keep them from losing money?

So grumpy and belligerent!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Floczy]

I have more questions than answers, perhaps?

-Just to....

You ongoingly assign ridiculous odds to your expectations of bitcoin's price performance and ongoingly flip-flopping along the way. How can the odds go from one extreme to another within a relatively short period of time?   Maybe you struggle with nuance?   I would suggest that the odds of the BTC price going below $60k in the next 7-ish months are probably closer to 50/50^** rather than being merely 5%.

      **
By the way, I have to say 50/50 because I have not yet seen enough information to support any theories that we have yet gotten out of "bear season."

Sorry, you're wrong,
 and you may end up losing bets with this probability of yours,
 and  i'll would say something around 3/97, ..

My 50/50 proclamations are not likely to be bettable, even though your 5/95 or updated 3/97 odds would be bettable  - even though I am not going to bet with you since we already went through that waste-of-time process.

So this ultimate bet wasn't carried out

I hope it doesn't go below 60k but this recent price movement is a proof that 50/50 is a good probability.

I can say that the odds of staying below 60k have increased by 2%, now it's 95% that the price won't go below 60k this year :{

And if the price keep going lower you'll keep on increasing the percentage right, 

I bet my wether here is more stable than you and Bitcoin

[philipma1957]

still have not gone below 63636.30. the next step in my death spiral ladder.


this shit keeps up I will be at 2.5 coins instead of 2.0 coins.

[Hueristic]

Do you guys really not understand this or are you just being argumentative?

Just a few observations.

First, do you realize how much for gaslighting us with this whole argumentative question? You seem to be looking for a fight.

Secondly, you keep speaking to the entire thread as if we're all arguing with you.

But finally, I think almost everyone here understands that Saylor is a risk. And that microstrategy has set up these convoluted financial instruments as some kind of sketchy way to collect up more Bitcoin than any of us are comfortable with an individual (person or corporation) having*.  And not only might he have something to do with any future crashes of the price, but he's also pointed a giant target on his back as he waves his balls at all the banks.

So I feel like you're kind of shadow boxing, man. I don't know who you're fighting with.  

And I'm not trying to be a dick, but it kind of comes off as you're missing something huge in your life or this is connected to some old trauma.

I mean, the only reason I guess that is because that's how my own life is gone. I've had to make peace with certain areas of my soul... destroy others.

*as I often say, Bitcoin has to withstand this. Anything trying to do what Bitcoin is trying to do would have to withstand this. There is no other path.

I was talking to the person I quoted (and to a lesser extent the person who merited his post) obviously.

I’m actually extremely busy and spending my time to help people understand what is happening in the market since so many on this thread are clueless and in denial. A thankless job.

I am sorry for how your life has gone. Mine has been pretty awesome. Wouldn’t trade places with anyone. Don’t project on me. I get paid to post here, was stuck waiting in line at the post office and felt like making a couple bucks while I waited. I’m not battling trauma. Lol. Why make it personal and try to insult me when I’m trying to educate folks and keep them from losing money?

This surprises No-one.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

still have not gone below 63636.30. the next step in my death spiral ladder.


this shit keeps up I will be at 2.5 coins instead of 2.0 coins.

Looks like you're looking good for those 2.5 coins.

Having said that everyone now thinks the cycles are still in place (just the 70% decline though, because all other cycle features have been broken) and of course when everyone is in agreement it usually does the opposite. Going off this logic I see 2 things:

1. We don't have a 70% decline and the lows are already in.
2. BTC declines by the 70%, but with everyone thinking the cycle is still a thing, BTC instead declines for say the next 20 years and burns all the cycle believers after they've bought back in.

Biodom has a good point regarding cycles still in being in place. If we keep getting diminishing ATHs, but no change in percentage of cycle declines, Bitcoin as an investable asset is over.

[vapourminer]

I get paid to post here

ok so how much to NOT post here?

[JayJuanGee]

I have more questions than answers, perhaps?

-Just to....

You ongoingly assign ridiculous odds to your expectations of bitcoin's price performance and ongoingly flip-flopping along the way. How can the odds go from one extreme to another within a relatively short period of time?   Maybe you struggle with nuance?   I would suggest that the odds of the BTC price going below $60k in the next 7-ish months are probably closer to 50/50^** rather than being merely 5%.

      **
By the way, I have to say 50/50 because I have not yet seen enough information to support any theories that we have yet gotten out of "bear season."

Sorry, you're wrong,
 and you may end up losing bets with this probability of yours,
 and  i'll would say something around 3/97, ..

My 50/50 proclamations are not likely to be bettable, even though your 5/95 or updated 3/97 odds would be bettable  - even though I am not going to bet with you since we already went through that waste-of-time process.

So this ultimate bet wasn't carried out

I hope it doesn't go below 60k but this recent price movement is a proof that 50/50 is a good probability.

Previously, I had gone through a bit of a bet preparation process with ESG, and I told him that I was not going to enter any bets with him or to negotiate any actual bets with him.  So, yes.  We did not enter any bets.

As far as odds go, on an ongoing basis they are changing, especially if we might be wanting to dive into specific numbers rather than following through with some kind of a 50/50 bet situation.

It hurts to see, especially since I came back at the topish expecting another leg up, to start shitposting back with my favorite degenerates... The rollercoaster I have watched play out over the last 12 or so years... do I want to wait another 12... Not so much.
 But I did convince myself to start time-based selling instead of price-based selling. I took some off the table at 117-120 (thanks again, LFC), enough to ride this ride as far as it goes!!! It is hard when you have waited so long to finally get there and watch it drop again, but maybe the plates did their job last time. That 17k bottom was as scary as the 3k bottom from COVID. This has been easy as pie comparatively, as I remember "the pie in the sky number" once was 32k.
 I wonder what kind of drop it would take from here to really make me worried??? Or maybe I am just R*tarted as I hold MSTR common stock at a loss.
We all ger the Cornz at the price we deserve.
K

Holding MSTR common stock seems a bit unnecessary, yet if you are only holding something in the ballpark of 10% or less of the size of your bitcoin holdings, then I can't see how it would make much of a  meaningful difference, even if it happens to be currently underperforming bitcoin by quite a bit.

Regarding making some kind of a sale of BTC in the $117k to $120k range, that sounds more like a price based sale, rather than time based selling, even though surely any of us can structure our sales however we like and rationalize them so that they might fit one system or another, so then within my own framing of time based sales, I personally think that any of us can sell up to 10% per year of the dollar value of our whole bitcoin holdings as long as we are valuating our holdings based on the 200-WMA and as long as the BTC price is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, yet right now, the 200-WMA is ONLY $61,700, and so our BTC spot price currently going below $64k means that the BTC spot price is ONLY barely teetering on 4% above the 200-WMA.. so then my own way of adapting to BTC prices falling below 25% above the 200-WMA and even further price drops is to reduce the withdrawal rate at various points if the BTC price goes lower than the 200-WMA.

My description on the sustainable withdrawal website is this:

>>>>>"When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget."<<<<<<

So even within time-based sustainable withdrawal there could be some advantages in withdrawing higher amounts when the BTC price is higher so that withdrawals might not be necessary (or they could potentially be skipped) during periods that the BTC price is lower, especially once BTC spot prices are less than 25% above the 200-WMA.

I likely have mentioned previously that I prefer price based sustainable withdrawal during the time periods that any of us might consider ourselves to be early in our status of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, since it seems that time-based sustainable withdrawal can be more harsh in terms of starting to deplete the bitcoin stash size, yet each fo them have their draw backs, especially during periods that the bitcoin price is either going down rather than up or during periods that the bitcoin price might get stuck in down locations that are below 25% above the 200-WMA, and worse yet when the BTC price goes below the 200-WMA or substantially below the 200-WMA. .since frequently it seems that if the BTC price is close to the 200-WMA or even below the 200-WMA, those seem more like times for buying rather than selling..  yet if we have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin, we might not necessarily be greatly damaged by ongoing selling of "what we must" levels of bitcoin, since it is also quite likely that our bitcoin holdings are still in decent profits, too.

Bastard Blackrock sells

We likely know that Blackrock is not our friend to the extent that they are able to stay neutral in whatever manipulation that they might do beyond just selling coins that they hold on behalf of clients... to the extent that Blackrock and/or any of the paper bitcoin dealers hold actual bitcoin rather than some other representation of their BTC spot ETF value that they are supposed to hold in order to back the shares.

[edited out]

I’m actually extremely busy and spending my time to help people understand what is happening in the market since so many on this thread are clueless and in denial. A thankless job.

You are doing god's work for sure, for us helpless lot.

Where would we be without your providing light within these dark caves?

I am sorry for how your life has gone. Mine has been pretty awesome. Wouldn’t trade places with anyone. Don’t project on me. I get paid to post here, was stuck waiting in line at the post office and felt like making a couple bucks while I waited. I’m not battling trauma. Lol. Why make it personal and try to insult me when I’m trying to educate folks and keep them from losing money?

Hahahaha

Funny how such self-defined enlightened fellow like ur lil selfie feels that he needs forum posts to make some money.

Bastard Blackrock sells

Bastards are doing their business with a better IQ level.

That is presumptuous.

still have not gone below 63636.30. the next step in my death spiral ladder.

this shit keeps up I will be at 2.5 coins instead of 2.0 coins.

Even if you were to get up to 2.5 BTC, you have almost no ability to hold them for any meaningful time, so why would it make much of  difference if you were able to accumulate a few more coins, just so you can fairly expeditiously cash them out into dollars anyhow?  It is not like you are ready, willling and/or able to actually hold bitcoin for much if any compounding.

You probably have not experienced a compounding in your bitcoin holdings for your whole life (or time in bitcoin - 14-ish years or more)...  

You probably don't even know what a bitcoin compounding is.^** ... or at least you don't believe in them.

 

**had to get my lil dig in there.

still have not gone below 63636.30. the next step in my death spiral ladder.
this shit keeps up I will be at 2.5 coins instead of 2.0 coins.

Looks like you're looking good for those 2.5 coins.

Having said that everyone now thinks the cycles are still in place (just the 70% decline though, because all other cycle features have been broken) and of course when everyone is in agreement it usually does the opposite. Going off this logic I see 2 things:
1. We don't have a 70% decline and the lows are already in.
2. BTC declines by the 70%, but with everyone thinking the cycle is still a thing, BTC instead declines for say the next 20 years and burns all the cycle believers after they've bought back in.

Biodom has a good point regarding cycles still in being in place. If we keep getting diminishing ATHs, but no change in percentage of cycle declines, Bitcoin as an investable asset is over.

I was almost with you somac.. ... yet both you and Biodom are proclaiming such absolutes as if they would be "bitcoin breakers," and we know that bitcoin does all kinds of crazy shit, just to show that it can.  

Surely, I understand one aspect of Biodom's logic to assert that bitcoin's repeating a previous pattern with the level of matching from prior cycles brings it down to very outrageous numbers that make it uninvestible or almost uninvestible.. which maybe is part of the goal to try to get people to think that bitcoin is not investible.. and surely at the same time, there have been and likely are going to continue to be all kinds of attacks on self-custody to create disincentives to hold our own bitcoin and to put accounting burdens on holding our own bitcoin ..

I just don't like absolutes. ... even though surely we have dicktwats that pull as many resources as they can to manipulate bitcoin as extremely as they are able to accomplish with whatever tools that they have, and if they can get it into even greater extremes, they will do it... but if the dicktwats had their way, we would still be sub $500 prices from early 2016.

I get paid to post here

ok so how much to NOT post here?

Just imagine, if you will, how much "our" quality of life would be improved?   it would be well worth whatever might be the asking price, no? I might have to personally put it into my time-based withdrawals for ants. weekly?  monthly? Quarterly?  Could automate the payments, no?

Now we might start to appreciate how that dweeb twat makes money.. ..

He wears out "normal" and "reasonable" peeps.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

so far the drop is on we did get under 63k

so my 63636.3 death spiral hit.

waiting on my 62543.21 number next.

hey jjg do we go under 60k tonight or tomorrow

hey OgNasty does Saylor sell 10,000 coin and makes a faster dump begin?

the death spiral
 be cranking it

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   952270  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   88.9063%  (719 / 808.72 expected, 89.72 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 123678152039610 and 129574556112911
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.9943% and -6.7509%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 13, 2026 at 6:55 AM  (in 9d 9h 47m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 14, 2026 at 12:16 AM  (in 10d 3h 8m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 0h 34m 22s and 15d 17h 55m 34s

[Gachapin]

we seem to be heading for a new cycle low

I don't think we reverse at the older one


god this cycle stuff is so stupid... I really have enough of it...

[somac.]

we seem to be heading for a new cycle low

I don't think we reverse at the older one

We've dropped a lot, and quickly, a reverse is certainly very possible. But I share your sentiment since it is in the gutter right now and FUD merchants are in full gear.

[ESG]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hottiek]

 10%!!!! Jay, are you cray cray (is it Thursday yet)? My whole stock portfolio is less than 10% of my  Cornz (.63)

 I have been a believer for over a decade, and it stung so bad selling so much when Vega was kicking 9500 (the lifestyle was majorly upgraded, so only a few regrets). But it has hardened me from wanting to sell at any price... 100k was that number if you asked last year me... Now I have no clue... which is why switching to time-based sales is easier for me at least .. And my range of sales is just where the order book got to me over my sales once on the way up and 2x on the way down. I obv wish I sold more at the top, but we all can't be LFC or what ognasty claims to be (even a broken clock is right twice a day, no?). If MSTR blows up, I have a lot more at risk, like we all do, which is why I am really disappointed in how much STRC he issued and then wasted what cash he diluted me with!!!  It just seems like a huge gamble when you already have max gambled... all for an extra 100 million??? He already turned a failing 250 million dollar company into something that was at one point in time touching 100 billion. You would think that would be enough? That being said, if he doesn't shit the bed, he might just again position his stack against sovereign wealth funds, not S&P 500 companies.
I should have bought Micron instead tho!!!
K