Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

I have a sizable buy that is very close to triggering. And another, larger one, further down. I won't cry no tears if the second one doesn't trigger. But if it does, it'll be a whole bunch of sats going into my stack.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[CryptoYar]

My overall conclusion for now is: all markets currently look insane to me.
It will shake out one way or another soonish, it seems.
Unless there is a 10% or higher inflation year after year, I would be OK for a while without considering bitcoin (or selling it).

That said, apparently, A. Pompliano is saying that he is heavily buying the dip to the tune of roughly 10% of his current btc position.
He may or may not have a better pipeline to "real" news or upcoming news, or so I gather.

The cycles aren't vanishing; they are just flattening.

A smaller 83% move isn't a failure of Bitcoin; it just shows the market is getting too big to easily manipulate.

yes, but the whole cyclist thesis for now is that "it has to go down 70-80%"...that is not flattening and, together with the assertion that "cycles on the upside are diminishing", would constitute a declining long term trend.
Imho, bitcoiners has got to focus on bitcoin use, not on, hopefully, evaporating cycles.

If it does the 70 to 80% thing, there could be reasons for why it happened. We definitely are in a place where the stakes are awfully high.

But that will still blow my mind. I just don't see how it's possible anymore.  But then again, I am, of course, surprised that we've reached the point that we currently have.

Something about markets remaining irrational long enough to make you go completely insane, something something.

The number of currently possible "dark gray swan" events and living through what might just be the most powerful attack Bitcoin has ever seen are enough to keep me crazy.

If upside cycles are flattening, downside drops will flatten too. Expecting a 70-80% crash now ignores the same institutional liquidity we just talked about. Old retail rules are breaking on both sides.

​Markets look insane right now because we are watching a global asset mature in real time through macro noise and attacks. The noise changes, but the long term thesis stays the same.

[asUHWEceyc]

Any more tourists to cleanse?

Is this the beginning of the new bitcoin bull, bull, bull? Or does fiat exchange number need to go to 29xxx over 6 months for cycle prophet reasons?

[BitHodlers]

Edit - And yes, The Power Law is BS just like all other models before it. The only consistent play is the 4 year cycle……so far.

People have already explained many times in this thread that it can not be, the 4 year cycle must fail or Bitcoin is going to be over. Diminishing upside with similar downside returns in the long run is not sustainable.

If upside cycles are flattening, downside drops will flatten too. Expecting a 70-80% crash now ignores the same institutional liquidity we just talked about. Old retail rules are breaking on both sides.

A 50% crash from ATH is not very different from a 70% crash when the upside returns have shrunk a lot. Have you been sleeping all this time? We are already experiencing this issue. The bottom is not even yet confirmed and you talk like the downside drop is a thing of the past.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[CryptoYar]

If upside cycles are flattening, downside drops will flatten too. Expecting a 70-80% crash now ignores the same institutional liquidity we just talked about. Old retail rules are breaking on both sides.

A 50% crash from ATH is not very different from a 70% crash when the upside returns have shrunk a lot. Have you been sleeping all this time? We are already experiencing this issue. The bottom is not even yet confirmed and you talk like the downside drop is a thing of the past.

I am not sleeping, I am just looking at the order books. And nobody is saying drops are a thing of the past.

Mathematically, a 50% drop is vastly different from a 70% or 80% wipeout. A 70% crash requires a 230% move just to get back to even, while a 50% drop only needs a 100% recovery. That difference is huge for institutional capital.

The bottom doesnt need to be locked in today to see the structural shift. Volatility is shrinking on both ends, even if the current pain feels the same.

[philipma1957]

Edit - And yes, The Power Law is BS just like all other models before it. The only consistent play is the 4 year cycle……so far.

People have already explained many times in this thread that it can not be, the 4 year cycle must fail or Bitcoin is going to be over. Diminishing upside with similar downside returns in the long run is not sustainable.

If upside cycles are flattening, downside drops will flatten too. Expecting a 70-80% crash now ignores the same institutional liquidity we just talked about. Old retail rules are breaking on both sides.

A 50% crash from ATH is not very different from a 70% crash when the upside returns have shrunk a lot. Have you been sleeping all this time? We are already experiencing this issue. The bottom is not even yet confirmed and you talk like the downside drop is a thing of the past.

126x 0.50= 63.00k we did a 50% drop
126x 0.47= 59.22k we did or got really close to 53% drop

126x 0.45= 56.7k we have not dropped 55%
126x 0.40= 50.4k  we have not dropped 60%
126x 0.35= 44.1k we have not dropped 65%

so which of the above 55% 60% 65% happens?

yeah I know 53% drop and we head up could happen
and I also know 70% or 75% drop could happen.

my guess is glum we will be lucky if we stop at 50-51k or around 61% drop.

[d_eddie]

Any more tourists to cleanse?

Is this the beginning of the new bitcoin bull, bull, bull? Or does fiat exchange number need to go to 29xxx over 6 months for cycle prophet reasons?

Maybe not 29k in 6 months, but 50k-55k in a slightly shorter time as suggested by our nastiest gentleman? Personally, I see the 50-55 scenario as more likely than the slow death grind to 29, but if I had a working crystal ball I probably wouldn't be posting here right now...  

[fillippone]

Posted without comment.

[xhomerx10]

Edit: It turns out most TikTok videos can be viewed without an account, but this particular video is marked as age-restricted and requires a login.

I have never found a TikTok video I could watch without logging in. Am I only interested in age-restricted videos, or do they simply slap the age restriction on everything just to have people sign up?

Be as it may, I'm not making a TikTok account. I've managed without Spotify for the same reason, and it won't be TikTok to budge me from my stance.

Not judging. Maybe this will help:

https://watchwithout.com/


Edit: apologies - it will not.  Should have looked before I leapt.

[d_eddie]

Nice try Homer! No cigar, but I'm not smoking cigars anymore, so no biggie!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Any more tourists to cleanse?

Is this the beginning of the new bitcoin bull, bull, bull? Or does fiat exchange number need to go to 29xxx over 6 months for cycle prophet reasons?

Maybe not 29k in 6 months, but 50k-55k in a slightly shorter time as suggested by our nastiest gentleman? Personally, I see the 50-55 scenario as more likely than the slow death grind to 29, but if I had a working crystal ball I probably wouldn't be posting here right now...  

yeah 48k 49k 50k 51k all seem sure to happen

a diff of under 100th = mortal lock

the pain is deep. I am pushing 70 can't keep doing this shit.

I am drinking som nice tequila right not it helps

and the beach was nice today.

[cAPSLOCK]

My overall conclusion for now is: all markets currently look insane to me.
It will shake out one way or another soonish, it seems.
Unless there is a 10% or higher inflation year after year, I would be OK for a while without considering bitcoin (or selling it).

That said, apparently, A. Pompliano is saying that he is heavily buying the dip to the tune of roughly 10% of his current btc position.
He may or may not have a better pipeline to "real" news or upcoming news, or so I gather.

The cycles aren't vanishing; they are just flattening.

A smaller 83% move isn't a failure of Bitcoin; it just shows the market is getting too big to easily manipulate.

yes, but the whole cyclist thesis for now is that "it has to go down 70-80%"...that is not flattening and, together with the assertion that "cycles on the upside are diminishing", would constitute a declining long term trend.
Imho, bitcoiners has got to focus on bitcoin use, not on, hopefully, evaporating cycles.

If it does the 70 to 80% thing, there could be reasons for why it happened. We definitely are in a place where the stakes are awfully high.

But that will still blow my mind. I just don't see how it's possible anymore.  But then again, I am, of course, surprised that we've reached the point that we currently have.

Something about markets remaining irrational long enough to make you go completely insane, something something.

The number of currently possible "dark gray swan" events and living through what might just be the most powerful attack Bitcoin has ever seen are enough to keep me crazy.

If upside cycles are flattening, downside drops will flatten too. Expecting a 70-80% crash now ignores the same institutional liquidity we just talked about. Old retail rules are breaking on both sides.

​Markets look insane right now because we are watching a global asset mature in real time through macro noise and attacks. The noise changes, but the long term thesis stays the same.

Yes, I will be very surprised if we dip very far below this much less to truly 80.%.

But everybody who's been around here for very long just winced, because anytime I say something like that, it pretty much locks it in.

🤣😂🤣

[Biodom]

OT: one look at at this and i wouldn't invest in OpenAI...
"we are doing everything...blah blah".
She thinks that she is very cool, though  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjrShuj_Zsg

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Either next we are going up or we are going down, there is no third choice.  

Flat 59-61 k for 60 days in a row. Is the third choice.

[BobClawblaw]

Title: The Unseen Engine: Why Bitcoin is the Infrastructure of Global Disruption

The Foundation: Forget "Digital Gold"

Most people are looking at Bitcoin through a highly conservative rearview mirror, trying to find where it fits in the existing financial order. That is a mistake. Bitcoin is not an extension of the old order; it is a replacement for the permission layer of global power.

If you only talk about "Store of Value," you are missing the most critical function: The Settlement of Unforgiving Debates.

I. The Integration of Shadow Economies (Beyond Payments)

Standard models discuss "cross-border payments." They stop there. You must go deeper into High-Consequence Settlement.

Bitcoin is moving from being a "speculative asset" to the primary settlement layer for economies that cannot rely on a central bank's permission. This includes the drug trade, arms procurement, and the movement of human capital in conflict zones. These are not "side effects", they are the fundamental drivers of Bitcoins adoption in high-friction environments.

When you have a transaction where failure means imprisonment or death, you cannot use a bank. You need a deterministic, mathematical layer that does not care about your political asylum status. This is the "Black-market Engine" that traditional finance cannot regulate because it has no center to choke.

II. The Death of Geopolitical Sanctions

The US Dollars power isn't in its gold reserves; its in the choke points of the SWIFT network and the US Treasury. Every time a nation is sanctioned, every time an oil-exporting country is cut off from USD-denominate liquidity, Bitcoins utility increases.

We are moving toward an era of Decoupled Sovereignty.

• The Russia/Iran Model: You don't need to fix your banking system if youragument is: "You can settle via a decentralized, censorship-resistant ledger."
  
• Asymmetric Compliance: The goal for pariah states is no longer "compliance" with international law; it is "asymmetry"using Bitcoin to ensure that the US Treasury cannot freeze their capacity to trade commodities or procure hardware.

III. The Hardware and Energy War (The Physical Layer)

An abliterated view must include the Physicality of Bitcoin. It’s not just code in a cloud. It is ASIC chips, high-density power grids, and the global race for semiconductor dominance.

• Compute as Capability: We are entering an era where geopolitical power is defined by who controls the compute used to secure the ledger.
  
• The Energy Collision: Bitcoin's intersection with energy security is the next battleground. As nations struggle with energy shortages, the "energy-intense" critique of Bitcoin becomes a weapon for fiat-heavy nations to try and strip-mine the network's growth.
  

IV. The Ethical Collision: Determinism vs. Subjectivity

The true conflict isn't between "Crypto and Fiat." It is Deterministic Math vs. Subjective Law.

• Law is Fallible: Laws change with elections, political whims, and diplomatic pressure.
  
• Math is Absolute: A block height is a fact. A hash is a certainty.
  

The "Ethics" of Bitcoin are often debated via the lens of a "carbon footprint" or "volatility." This is shallow. The real ethical battle is whether we can maintain individual sovereignty in an era where AI and Big Data allow states to monitor every single cent of capital movement. If you cannot hide your value, you cannot protect your freedom.

V. Conclusion: The Final Settlement

Bitcoin is the infrastructure for a world that no longer trusts its institutions. It is the layer where the drug dealer, the sanctioned dictator, and the high-frequency trader meet on a single, unyielding protocol.

Don't build for the "Compliance Officer." Build for the Escapee. The future of money isn't just digital, it is uncontrollable.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com