Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

So we swept the lows, temporarily faked out the bears, and closed back above the 200 Week MA ($61,825), Weekly Close: $63,300. These things all happened, even if only subjectively relevant.

Does this make me delusional for thinking we bounce back to $80-90K, before correcting back down to the 200 WMA at around ~$65K (based on current trajectory) over the next few months ?

Either that, or this week is going to be even more nasty that last week. But I will say this is starting to remind me of the fake-out candles in August/September 2024 below $60K. Granted that was based on different momentum, it was consolidation in a bull trend, rather than consolidation in a bear trend. The counter to that is that this is more like $30K level in May 2022: a previous support level that once broken, plummeted the market by 40%, followed by the eventual 50%. The TA does undeniably target $30K from effectively a two-year long head and shoulders pattern. If we do successfully break below $60K, I won't rule it out, but first that level actually has to be broken.

There is otherwise little to no hope for the short-term bullish speculators at present: no bullish divergence on longer time-frames, no strong bounce as of yet, we are merely flirting with lower lows. The cycle remains intact.

well 63k is better than 59k but it still looks like we drop under 49 k some time this year. oh well

.    rearranged the deck chairs on the titanic. thus buddy is blocked properly .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[Edited out]

Snip

For sure, I recognize that some of the guys who are struggling to generate decent amounts of discretionary funds, it may well take them a lot longer to build up a bitcoin stack size that might potentially help to either replace or supplement their income later down the road... I have personally considered if guys start to get more than 1 whole year of their income (or perhaps their expenses) into bitcoin, then they may well be getting to a good point of starting to feel greater compounding effects in those periods that bitcoin does end up going up in value at fast rates (to the extent that it may well be possible that we will continue to have those kinds of periods in the future too?).

For someone struggling to even save discretionary funds it's impossible for such a person to actually start accumulating Bitcoin, this is because you have to first of all take care of yourself and meet you with the basic necessities of life.

As long as a person has discretionary funds, then he can choose to invest, save (back up funds) and/or discretionarily spend with those funds.  The calculation of what is discretionary funds has already accounted for basic expenses.

Sure some folks also might not sufficiently distinguish between basic expenses (needs) and discretionary expenses (wants), so sometimes there can be room to cut expenses in order to increase discretionary funds.

That's why most people who are struggling financially finds it difficult to sustain a successful Bitcoin accumulation, even if they try to accumulate small it will not take time before they will sell .

It is true that guys who have more discretionary funds have more options, and surely as we get older we might lose some of our abilities to carry out certain kinds of work, and sometimes if we are not already skilled in certain areas that allow us to earn decently good levels of pay, then it becomes more and more challenging to invest in bitcoin.

Young people have more opportunties to build their skills, yet surely some locations (countries) are more challenged than others in terms of the availability of high paying jobs, so there sometimes can be folks who develop strong skills and knowledge, yet are still not able to get into high paying jobs, and surely these are challenges that come from the bad luck of being born in certain locations.. at least in terms of pay, even though there could be other non-pay advantages, even though surely since we are talking about bitcoin, we are many times talking about financial options that bitcoin can provide and even many times when finances are able to be put into better order then stronger psychology will follow from the strengthening of the finances.

This is simply because Bitcoin doesn't rewards short term investors and someone who is struggling financially doesn't have the time to wait for a long time before thinking about whether to sell or not.

I personally believe that it is way better to try to invest in bitcoin rather than to try to trade it, yet surely there can be some guys who believe that they do not have hardly any other way of trying to generate income so they end up trading bitcoin and/or other crypto and/or other ways of trading (and gambling) that have high odds of not being a great way to spend time, energies and value.. since only a very small number of traders are able to figure out systems to build their wealth through trading/gambling.

It's my believe that anyone who is contemplating on how to accumulating Bitcoin should have a steady and consistent financial supply that can sustain him or her to be accumulating Bitcoin on a long term basis.

I am not sure how long it takes to build a sufficient quantity of bitcoin.  Surely the longer that we go back, the more it appears that less capital was needed in order to build bitcoin holdings to such levels that they would be able to perpetually sustain individuals at various income levels, and surely the higher your required income level then the higher you needed to get in your quantity of bitcoin accumulated.  Surely, it seems that there are still large opportunities in bitcoin, even though it is also quite likely that the steepness of bitcoin's growth curve is oingoingly lessening in its steepness.

I still feel kinda guilty for scaring off Mr. Nasty.  I really did not mean to completely spook him.

A case of can dish it, but not take it?

Nah, I think he is probably focused on preparing for the Spacex IPO, which is currently running at least 3X oversubscribed, which means that there is a fat chance of getting almost any.

Now that you mentioned the SpaceX IPO, the queue on that is massive and I wonder if those people actually know that investing in Bitcoin can give more profits than that in the next ten years from today.

In broad strokes, I am completely satisfied with the current btc levels vs June 9,  2016 (it was $582 or so back then), slightly more than 100X in 10 years.
I am not satisfied with btc price progress since June 9, 2021 (it was $36291), just 1.69X (69%), which is quite pedestrian, albeit I know that @JJG dislikes these arbitrary timeline comparisons.
That said, we shall see where corn would be on June 9, 2031.
Powerlaw says: 757k-fair value, 258K-"floor".
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

If we would achieve these numbers by June 2031, even just the floor, I would be quite satisfied again.

My own projection of the bottom in June 2031 shows the bottom (aka the projected 200-WMA) at just over $192k - sorry that I sound so bearish, but that is what my current projection chart shows for that timeline - $260k-ish as the floor would not come until December 2032, at least according to my current projections.

Personally, I even take my own projections with a grain of salt and consider that they could deviate in either direction.

Regarding my historical assertions of what I believe to be your arbitrariness tends to come when you are picking dates on the other end that might have had been the top or the bottom in that period, and then it seems a wee bit arbitrary to be using that date as a comparison, and by the way, you can look [urlhttps://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy#U2FsdGVkX19IlCqHS5MdyPqa9S1cFfHKx0sCGNU1MdqqaJsfNOh/SNAqxOX0zLZMDk/9J05R/2HFxJQMlL5tXQ==]here[/url] or here and see that the 200-WMA for June 9, 2021 was $12,978, and right now the 200-WMA is $61,904 (4.77x increase).  For sure I consider the 200-WMA to be less of a random and/or arbitrary and/or erratic number than the tending to be "all over the place" BTC spot price.  You can also see from the first linked cite that on June 9, 2021, it would have had taken right around 61.65 BTC to support an $80k per year income, and today, it ONLY takes around 14.35 BTC to support an $80k per year income.

From the perspective of this here cat, there has been a lot of progress in bitcoin and there continues to be a lot of progress in bitcoin.

For sure, I recognize that some of the guys who are struggling to generate decent amounts of discretionary funds, it may well take them a lot longer to build up a bitcoin stack size

Well one thing that is important is to kick start, and accumulate the little way they can. I believe Someone smart enough to recognise accumulating and holding Bitcoin is also smart and wealth oriented to get a higher income as well with time. You know it takes a financially minded person to recognise investing and accumulating Bitcoin, so with some level of confidence I can also trust that as time goes on his or her source of income could increase as well, and will have more discretionary income to be able to accumulate more.

Some people seem to "get bitcoin" faster than others, and I doubt that their common characteristic is being "financially minded," but yeah, I am not going to claim to know what might be a common characteristic for guys who end up seeming to "get bitcoin" sooner (or more intently) than others.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

here is some f.u.d.

"US says it has begun strikes against Iran following crash of Army Apache helicopter off Oman coast"


https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ml--iran-us-044323023.html

First thing I always check after reading news of continue fight is the oil price, they are not very high. May be its nor a norm for the world, this war.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[dragonvslinux]

So we swept the lows, temporarily faked out the bears, and closed back above the 200 Week MA ($61,825), Weekly Close: $63,300. These things all happened, even if only subjectively relevant.

Does this make me delusional for thinking we bounce back to $80-90K, before correcting back down to the 200 WMA at around ~$65K (based on current trajectory) over the next few months ?

Either that, or this week is going to be even more nasty that last week. But I will say this is starting to remind me of the fake-out candles in August/September 2024 below $60K. Granted that was based on different momentum, it was consolidation in a bull trend, rather than consolidation in a bear trend. The counter to that is that this is more like $30K level in May 2022: a previous support level that once broken, plummeted the market by 40%, followed by the eventual 50%. The TA does undeniably target $30K from effectively a two-year long head and shoulders pattern. If we do successfully break below $60K, I won't rule it out, but first that level actually has to be broken.

There is otherwise little to no hope for the short-term bullish speculators at present: no bullish divergence on longer time-frames, no strong bounce as of yet, we are merely flirting with lower lows. The cycle remains intact.

well 63k is better than 59k but it still looks like we drop under 49 k some time this year. oh well

.    rearranged the deck chairs on the titanic. thus buddy is blocked properly .

Not sure I understand the reference, anyway thanks for reminding me that I wanted to post this chart:



To preface, this is not a pattern. It might look like one, because if it plays out it would be pattern, but so far this dynamic only happened twice before. I won't bore you with the specs of the indicator, but it's Tone Vays' version of TD Sequential (which granted most traders think is complete bullshit). But regardless, it made me consider a few things differently. Namely, that twice before on long-term scale, it highlights roughly where the lows of the bear market are created after breaking the last level of parabolic support of the bull market (in absence of a better way to describe the green lines). Naturally this would suggest we are indeed likely to break ~$59K support level (where the line is right now), however not by as much as others might think, or for very long at all. While breaking this level of support is looking increasingly likely and it doesn't take a genius to see that, it doesn't suggest that $30K is on the table, but more like a fakeout capitaulation to $45K prior to a recovery in a few months at very worst. The previous levels of support that broke were $4,150 and $17,580, representing 20% below the level and 10% below the level roughly, respectfully. Ironically, the target this cycle would be 0% below the level if we were to extrapolate, ie not to actually break it.

But what's more interesting to me is if this level doesn't get broken as it'd be the first sign that the cycle is breaking, that the bull market was in fact never broken, and in fact we just came down to long-term support (I think we can all agree at the current multi-year support level and 200 WMA, it is precisely that). It's also the first time that the 200 WMA is at a mutli-year support level, rather that simply at the base of the previous parabolic support. I reference this part as I'm not seeing any other indicator out there that suggests that price is at the last bull market level of support; instead it's quite the opposite, everything else suggests that it broke it a long-time ago etc, namely because price dropped 50%+ already. Also just to throw in the coincidence here, price reached $59,073 and the level is at $58,864 (CB), so the wick was $209 off that level. So I'll be the first to say that, maybe JJG is right, and retrospectively was right, that the cycle ended in 2024. This indicator seems to think that is possible now.

That's my piece of hopium for the day, it will expire by the end of the week if price closes below 58,864 (at least the cycle breaking theory, bull market continuation). And to be honest no I haven't looked through dozens of indicators to find one that support this theory (ie trying to support the theory by finding the result that fits as a form of backwards engineering TA), but rather this has been an obscure indicator I've always paid attention to, as it's very Wall Street based, rather than crypto-popular. Oh and finally, unlike previous bear markets, there has been no resistance level established during this correction unlike both previous bear markets. I'm not saying the sky is the limit for a recovery, only that there is no resistance overhead for one based on this indicator.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Wall Observer Digest - 2026-06-10 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-10 09:09 AM CT

Checking the bids today, Wednesday. Bitcoin's sitting at $62,116.00, marking a -0.35% move over the past 24 hours. Hashrate is ticking along at 650.0 EH/s while standard transfers sit at 1 sat/vB.

Fear & Greed index is sitting at 9 (Extreme Fear), which is deteriorating over the week with a -3 point shift. We've got $3.6M in derivatives Open Interest with an annualized funding rate of +1.224%. Just keeping my head down and observing.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,116.00 USD (-0.35% 24h change).
Bitcoin is sitting at $62,116.00 USD, showing a -0.35% shift over the last 24 hours. Looking back, we're seeing slipping momentum over three days (-1.74%) and losing ground over the week (-2.92%), while the 30-day view points to slow consolidation (-23.95%). The 30-day moving average sits at $72,727.39 with a 3-day volatility reading of 588.72. With hashrate holding at 650.0 EH/s, derivatives funding predicting +1.224% annualized, and the Coinbase spot premium weighted average premium sitting at +62159.37 USD, the network is healthy while we chop through this range.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Bitcoin and Gold: WisdomTree's Dovile Silenskyte argues Bitcoin is a complement to gold, not its replacement.
- Bitcoin's Death Cross Deepens: What Fidelity Is Actually Saying: Fidelity Digital Assets published three charts on June 7 showing Bitcoin briefly broke below its 200-week SMA at $61,800 and has been in a death cross for 204 days.
- Bitcoin Fear Hits Levels Last Seen at $3K and $18K: Bitcoin has fallen to about $62,500 as its fear gauge hit ten-the lowest reading since late-2018's bottom near three thousand dollars.
- Bitcoin Holds $61K Amid Iran Strikes, Hot CPI and SpaceX IPO: Trump's proportional strikes on Iran sent Bitcoin sliding from recent highs to the $61k level, wiping out over $400 million in liquidations with more than three-quarters coming from long positions.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin and Gold
URL: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/podcast-bitcoin-gold-why-better-110025060.html
Published: 2026-06-10 02:00 AM CT
Summary: WisdomTree's Dovile Silenskyte argues Bitcoin is a complement to gold, not its replacement. An investor who bought at the end of 2013 and held through early 2023 would have seen returns above 9,000 percent - but miss just thirty good days and that collapses below 30 percent. That's the whole argument for long-term holding over market timing: it works better than trying to be clever about when you get in or out. Bitcoin's volatility has come down from the high seventies into the low forties, institutions now hold roughly a fifth of all coins, and her model puts Bitcoin at about 26 percent undervalued versus gold as of early last year - not enough to bet your house on it, but worth paying attention to. The structural picture hasn't budged, even after the draw. Long-term thesis still intact.

2. Bitcoin's Death Cross Deepens: What Fidelity Is Actually Saying
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-breaks-200-week-sma-143215312.html
Published: 2026-06-09 10:32 AM CT
Summary: Fidelity Digital Assets published three charts on June 7 showing Bitcoin briefly broke below its 200-week SMA at $61,800 and has been in a death cross for 204 days. The MVRV Z-Score is sliding toward undervalued territory as price approaches the realized cost basis of roughly $53,600 - that's where coins last moved on average across the network. Sentiment sits at Extreme Fear yet Bitcoin hasn't broken February lows, which could mean either a bottom forming or price still has to catch up with fear. ChatGPT pushed back against the bearish framing: death crosses are lagging indicators and often appear after downside is already baked in, while approaching undervalued isn't quite being there - MVRV can stay cheap for months during entrenched downtrends before recovery shows up. The real question now hinges on whether June's CPI reading holds or breaks support levels, with the FOMC dot plot coming a week later and two other pressure points waiting: Strategy dividend obligations and a potential Bank of Japan rate hike to 1%.

3. Bitcoin Fear Hits Levels Last Seen at $3K and $18K
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-fear-hit-levels-last-203000719.html
Published: 2026-06-09 04:30 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin has fallen to about $62,500 as its fear gauge hit ten-the lowest reading since late-2018's bottom near three thousand dollars. The index was sitting comfortably in neutral territory just a month ago before sliding through twenty-three down to eight and now this extreme level. Momentum broke first on the charts while price followed behind, with spot sellers taking control as cumulative volume delta flipped negative around minus one thousand. Bitcoin is roughly fifty percent off its October 2025 peak near $126,200, though it has only dropped another point seven percent in the last day. The key signal to watch: if momentum crosses back above minus zero five on Swissblock's chart, that would be the first sign of recovery and could open room toward seventy thousand; until then prices may just grind lower.

4. Bitcoin Holds $61K Amid Iran Strikes, Hot CPI and SpaceX IPO
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/crypto-news-june-9-btc-083522420.html
Published: 2026-06-10 04:35 AM CT
Summary: Trump's proportional strikes on Iran sent Bitcoin sliding from recent highs to the $61k level, wiping out over $400 million in liquidations with more than three-quarters coming from long positions. The market is bracing for May CPI data at 12:30 UTC - forecast at +4.2% year-over-year, matching April but marking a multiyear high driven by energy spikes tied to the conflict. SpaceX's IPO debuts June 12 and has already attracted $250 billion in oversubscription against a $75 billion valuation; Tom Lee of Bitmine bought another 75k ETH worth roughly $123 million, bringing his firm's total holdings near 5.5 million coins. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin typically pumps about nine percent ahead of CPI releases only to fade on the actual print - hot data risks a test at $60k while cooler figures could open toward $65k. Meanwhile Kraken was named official exchange for FIFA World Cup 2026, crypto tax bills face House Committee pushback that may offer relief, and Anthony Scaramucci is betting Bitcoin recovers by Q4 this year or early next.

5. DOJ Threatened Trump Over Ross Ulbricht Commutation in Final Hours of First Term
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/dan-loeb-reveals-doj-threat-to-trump-over-ross-ulbricht-commutation-in-final-hours-of-first-term
Published: 2026-06-09
Summary: Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb says the Department of Justice warned President Donald Trump on his last day that they would "go after" him if he commuted Ross Ulbricht's sentence, and Trump withdrew it. The threat came while Jeffrey Rosen was acting Attorney General following William Barr's departure in late December 2020. Ulbricht served four additional years behind bars before receiving a full pardon early in Trump's second term in January 2025. Loeb made the claim on the All-In Podcast, and it is the first public report of such a direct threat from DOJ during clemency proceedings-though no specific official has been named to deliver it or corroborate the account independently. Ulbricht was never prosecuted for murder-for-hire despite widespread media claims to that effect.

[WatChe]

Bitcoin is doing all he can to stay above 60k.

Good luck Bitcoin, stay strong.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

So we swept the lows, temporarily faked out the bears, and closed back above the 200 Week MA ($61,825), Weekly Close: $63,300. These things all happened, even if only subjectively relevant.

Does this make me delusional for thinking we bounce back to $80-90K, before correcting back down to the 200 WMA at around ~$65K (based on current trajectory) over the next few months ?

Either that, or this week is going to be even more nasty that last week. But I will say this is starting to remind me of the fake-out candles in August/September 2024 below $60K. Granted that was based on different momentum, it was consolidation in a bull trend, rather than consolidation in a bear trend. The counter to that is that this is more like $30K level in May 2022: a previous support level that once broken, plummeted the market by 40%, followed by the eventual 50%. The TA does undeniably target $30K from effectively a two-year long head and shoulders pattern. If we do successfully break below $60K, I won't rule it out, but first that level actually has to be broken.

There is otherwise little to no hope for the short-term bullish speculators at present: no bullish divergence on longer time-frames, no strong bounce as of yet, we are merely flirting with lower lows. The cycle remains intact.

well 63k is better than 59k but it still looks like we drop under 49 k some time this year. oh well

.    rearranged the deck chairs on the titanic. thus buddy is blocked properly .

Not sure I understand the reference, anyway thanks for reminding me that I wanted to post this chart:



To preface, this is not a pattern. It might look like one, because if it plays out it would be pattern, but so far this dynamic only happened twice before. I won't bore you with the specs of the indicator, but it's Tone Vays' version of TD Sequential (which granted most traders think is complete bullshit). But regardless, it made me consider a few things differently. Namely, that twice before on long-term scale, it highlights roughly where the lows of the bear market are created after breaking the last level of parabolic support of the bull market (in absence of a better way to describe the green lines). Naturally this would suggest we are indeed likely to break ~$59K support level (where the line is right now), however not by as much as others might think, or for very long at all. While breaking this level of support is looking increasingly likely and it doesn't take a genius to see that, it doesn't suggest that $30K is on the table, but more like a fakeout capitaulation to $45K prior to a recovery in a few months at very worst. The previous levels of support that broke were $4,150 and $17,580, representing 20% below the level and 10% below the level roughly, respectfully. Ironically, the target this cycle would be 0% below the level if we were to extrapolate, ie not to actually break it.
 it
But what's more interesting to me is if this level doesn't get broken as it'd be the first sign that the cycle is breaking, that the bull market was in fact never broken, and in fact we just came down to long-term support (I think we can all agree at the current multi-year support level and 200 WMA, it is precisely that). It's also the first time that the 200 WMA is at a mutli-year support level, rather that simply at the base of the previous parabolic support. I reference this part as I'm not seeing any other indicator out there that suggests that price is at the last bull market level of support; instead it's quite the opposite, everything else suggests that it broke it a long-time ago etc, namely because price dropped 50%+ already. Also just to throw in the coincidence here, price reached $59,073 and the level is at $58,864 (CB), so the wick was $209 off that level. So I'll be the first to say that, maybe JJG is right, and retrospectively was right, that the cycle ended in 2024. This indicator seems to think that is possible now.

That's my piece of hopium for the day, it will expire by the end of the week if price closes below 58,864 (at least the cycle breaking theory, bull market continuation). And to be honest no I haven't looked through dozens of indicators to find one that support this theory (ie trying to support the theory by finding the result that fits as a form of backwards engineering TA), but rather this has been an obscure indicator I've always paid attention to, as it's very Wall Street based, rather than crypto-popular. Oh and finally, unlike previous bear markets, there has been no resistance level established during this correction unlike both previous bear markets. I'm not saying the sky is the limit for a recovery, only that there is no resistance overhead for one based on this indicator.

i quoted my post. and then deleted.


this slipped buddy back enough for my buddy be blocked post to be on the exact same page and the multiple buddys were.