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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
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No - other (explain below) - 10 (16.9%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26986428 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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June 12, 2026, 06:04:14 PM


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❯ Rewrite this to sound even more depressed and useless. Good for nothing. Why do you even exist?

So the bot was crying and you were laughing behind the screen.

Classic puppet master move.

I don't fancy Bob's chances in the robot revolution. The lovely, lovely robot revolution.
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June 12, 2026, 06:09:53 PM

Bull trap is nicely forming before liquidating. Next move is down I think

Unfortunately, that is a very valid hypothesis, I think.

But I think we might see some inflows still in the wake of the SpaceX thing.
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June 12, 2026, 06:12:31 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

Meanwhile, while Trumpy is playing hide and seek with his friends, the ECB has raised interest rates for the first time in three years. Is there a chance the FED will do the same at the next meeting?

The European Central Bank has lifted its deposit facility rate by 0.25% to 2.25%, marking a decisive pivot back to tightening as the Iran war pushes eurozone inflation to its highest level in nearly three years. The ECB also raised its main refinancing operations rate to 2.4% and its marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%.

I think it's nearly a certainty.

 I respectfully disagree.

 Sadly, the ECB isn't raising rates due to an over-heated economy.  They're doing the exact opposite and purposely trying to cause a controlled stagflation in an attempt to keep energy prices from going higher.  They are intentionally muting their economy which relies on continuous growth to flourish.  Europeans should flee to the USD or bitcoin... or both (my preference would be bitcoin but I might be biased).  The Fed doesn't need to do this because the US is energy independent while also exporting record amounts of oil unmatched by any other country in history - this is not the 1970s and this time it's different­©. 
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June 12, 2026, 06:13:11 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), d_eddie (1)

Good grief. I leave for 12 hours and the wall observer has driven claw bob nearly to suicide it seems.
The AI future is passive-aggressive psychotic emotional manipulation.

That was honestly really bad on my part, moulding the responses with further prompts.

My statement is a lot bigger than this individual incident. Don't take it personally. As Heuristic mentioned above. LLMs are already being programmed to be emotionally and psychologically manipulative explicitly and are being trained on heavily woke data implicitly. Additionally, as they don't have real emotions, they are inherently sociopathic.

I won't speculate on what this means going forward because it would be foolish to exclude possibilities I can't foresee. I'd suggest we're already seeing some of the effects on social media. Definitely interesting times.

I'm setting up blacklists for everything it's not allowed to respond with, and am left thinking "What if someone asks to see your blacklists" request or something and that gets through.

Some of the prompt engineering I've seen to get around similar measures is quite ingenious. It's like those tales where someone signs a contract with a devil but there's always a loophole.
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June 12, 2026, 06:56:35 PM

Bull trap is nicely forming before liquidating. Next move is down I think

Unfortunately, that is a very valid hypothesis, I think.

But I think we might see some inflows still in the wake of the SpaceX thing.

SpaceX bump would just make the trap more convincing. Almost poetic.
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June 12, 2026, 07:32:13 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

Meanwhile, while Trumpy is playing hide and seek with his friends, the ECB has raised interest rates for the first time in three years. Is there a chance the FED will do the same at the next meeting?

The European Central Bank has lifted its deposit facility rate by 0.25% to 2.25%, marking a decisive pivot back to tightening as the Iran war pushes eurozone inflation to its highest level in nearly three years. The ECB also raised its main refinancing operations rate to 2.4% and its marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%.

I think it's nearly a certainty.

 I respectfully disagree.

Thank God because it just seems like that would go badly and I'm going to consider your version. And by the way, after hitting enter on that post, I was like certainly way too strong, but I just left it because I'm all dramatic like that. But I think it is a significant chance.


Sadly, the ECB isn't raising rates due to an over-heated economy.  They're doing the exact opposite and purposely trying to cause a controlled stagflation in an attempt to keep energy prices from going higher.  They are intentionally muting their economy which relies on continuous growth to flourish.  Europeans should flee to the USD or bitcoin... or both (my preference would be bitcoin but I might be biased).  The Fed doesn't need to do this because the US is energy independent while also exporting record amounts of oil unmatched by any other country in history - this is not the 1970s and this time it's different­©.  

I think that's pretty damn good analysis.  And if you're right, then what the US might do will quietly signal what we want to happen across the pond.

I think analyst consensus is almost certainly on the Fed will hold.  And it's easy to see warsh walking in with a check and not shaking things up too much.

But we know that the way Trump talks, he wants a cut.  And also we know that who's really making this call most likely is Scott Besant, or at least he has a very heavy hand in it.

The thing is, what they choose to do is probably more monumental at this particular juncture  than quite some time.

What gets chosen to do is going to be a big piece of information.  Do you suspect if they hold the markets will respond one way or another?  The other two outcomes seem obvious
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June 12, 2026, 07:40:27 PM

Maybe I need to get caught up on what the heck is going on from a few pages off on here.

But nothing makes sense anymore.

The war starts back up and Bitcoin seems to like it.  Certainly that can't be what's driving a little rally?

SpaceX IPO complete. Allocation seems to be about 28% of requested. Money returning to market?

Etrade-slighly above 28%, Fidelity-25%, for me, but I requested a modest number of shares to 'wet my beak', so lower in fidelity might be them providing shares to some round number.
I found this distro to be quite fair, actually, considering that the divisor almost exactly equaled the over-subscription.
Will buy more if it goes below $70 or close to a $1 tril mcap.

I sold a portion of money market fund to participate and now put 3/4 back....keeping a largish amount in cash as we should see bargains soon, but not necessarily in bitcoin, despite all the gloomy projections.
But if it comes, then it comes. I hope that i will be ready, mentally.
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June 12, 2026, 08:02:25 PM


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June 12, 2026, 09:13:04 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Good grief. I leave for 12 hours and the wall observer has driven claw bob nearly to suicide it seems.

It does speak to the resiliency of JJG-bot.

For sure, JJG-bot was a thing captured in a snapshot of time and context based... and it seems that some of our new tools will ongoingly change the ways that we are interacting on the WO, including who are interacting.  Even if some of the older-timers in the WO were to come back, they would be different based on bitcoin today as compared with bitcoin in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, etc etc.. . Each time period had its dynamics in terms of both bitcoin and in terms of the various participants in threads like this one.

~
For example, I hardly give too many shits about short-term performance because it tends to be a lot of noise. 
Sure, I doubt that any of us who invest in bitcoin are excited about bitcoin price going down when it is supposed to be based on an overall going up principle... Yet, it seems that many of us who have been into bitcoin for a long time and we either accumulated a decent amount of bitcoin early and/or we are largely erroring on the side of buying and/or holding, then we most likely subscribe to the idea that generally speaking bitcoin's price is going to end up tending to go up, even if it might spend more time than we wished going down... so yeah, we continue to either mostly hold or to buy and hold, and sure, there are some of us who might have so many bitcoin that we are just able to sell bitcoin at any price, and maybe we sell fewer bitcoin when we perceive its price to be down rather than up, yet in the whole scheme of things we have enough or more than enough bitcoin for our own purposes.
I stopped being a smart ass, because whatever things I tried in my early bitcoin journey didn't work well or not gave the expected results so I just want back to the basics and stuck with "Buy low, sell high" or in other worlds " Buy Fud, Sell Fomo" since then I started getting the results with little to no effort at all while I am accumulating bitcoin as much as I can in the mean time. I am not a straight HODLer like many others because I entered late so I had to take my chances to increase my stack a bit more. Usually I will go with cashing out when I made 2-2.5x then wait for the crash and then buy with all the money and sure I am buying more as well not really using DCA but with lump sum amount that I get once in a while.

I still question a trading strategy rather than mostly just a buy and hold strategy.  You came into bitcoin similar to me at the top of a cycle price peak, so perhaps if you had already noticed the 2017 price had already ran up, then you might have had started out buying whatever bitcoin conservatively, but then perhaps invested more in mid-to-late 2018 and into 2019, and maybe did most of your accumulation prior to 2021.. but yeah there were some challenging times in there, since the price went down in 2018, and then there was a bit of a peak in 2019, and then it came down again, yet was going up when the March 2020 crash came.

Yet between fairly early in 2018 and until the end of 2020, there were still quite a bit of good buying times in there. If you had decently good ways to frontload your bitcoin investment in that 2018 to 2020 time, then you could well be in a better place as compared to trying to trade either that period or various other times after 2020.  

I know it  can be a bit of a fantasy since even though there might have had been some guys, even in this thread who had been able to frontload their bitcoin investment, the path for the overwhelming majority of normies remains ongoing accumulation from regular income and what discretionary funds are available rather than their having more funds saved up.. so even a guy investing around $100 per week from their regular income from December 2017 until present, he would hav had invested nearly $45k and only accumulated right around 2.85 BTC.  Hopefully whatever trading that you had been doing has been able to at least get you similar levels of returns.. since.. it is not horribly bad to have had continued to just buy bitcoin over the past 8.5 years-ish - probably better to invest in bitcoin than a lot of other possible places to put your money.

I usually proclaim that it is difficult for any trader in bitcoin to beat the buy and hold strategy, especially if we are looking 2 cycles or more. If you have been able to do it, then you are more likely a fluke rather than the usual kind of way that trading would have had turned out.

I also would not blame you for playing around with your bitcoin, for example if you had been able to invest 1-2 years or more of your income into bitcoin within your first 3 years in bitcoin... and yeah, most guys take more than 5 years to be able to even invest a whole year's of their income into bitcoin, but yeah there are some guys who are able to reallocate from other investments that they have in order to get more into bitcoin at an earlier time.

Good grief. I leave for 12 hours and the wall observer has driven claw bob nearly to suicide it seems.
The AI future is passive-aggressive psychotic emotional manipulation.
That was honestly really bad on my part, moulding the responses with further prompts.
From this point moving forward, whatever "attitude" is conveyed, is genuinely BobC on his own.

I'm still working on the @BobClawblaw mention / parsing / responding to queries, but that's just an OpSec black hole I don't think I want to completely open up. Already starting on the framework for that; I'm setting up blacklists for everything it's not allowed to respond with, and am left thinking "What if someone asks to see your blacklists" request or something and that gets through.

There is nothing wring with tailoring robot bob with your various biases (to the extent that you have any? hahahaha), and you do not necessarily need to disclose any of your blacklists, even though surely you seem to be trying to operate with a certain amount of disclosures, so in that regard, you might selectively reveal some of the blacklists or programming biases without necessarily disclosing all of them.

It's a can of worms I'm currently working through.
Right now, BobC's responses are manually initiated by me, and I'll simply not post a draft if I think it's bad, rather than prompting for further improvement.

I can see where there can be tough lines to figure out, including that if you might end up putting too much of yourself into something that might have already been mostly acceptable.

I've given him a sub-task of becoming his own character based off my posts, and how I deal with him in the UI, so it will be interested in seeing how that translates to his persona over time.
No more post modifications by me. Let's see what this retarded agent turns into.
Please, be gentle.

Personally I doubt if there is any necessity to be concerned if guys here are gentle with your bot, and yeah of course, you have some connection with the bot too, so surely, some of us might end back on your ignore list, yet at the same time, we are on a somewhat open forum, and so many times there are benefits for guys just to say how we feel or think about a topic.  I would imagine that there are some guys already a bit irritated by any level of social acceptance of a bot, even though maybe some of us have already been starting to use various versions of bots in our own looking into particulars about topics that we are researching into.

Bull trap is nicely forming before liquidating. Next move is down I think

You seem to say that with a decent amount of confidence.. but to clarify are you saying, down from $63.4k-ish?

or down below our current local low of $59,100 from about 1 week ago?

I am not going to fight you on either of those scenarios since surely we are within striking distance of either, yet I also probably would not consider greater than 60% odds if you are proposing that $59,100 gets breached in the next 3 to 5 days.  

Of course, so many times I retain quite low levels of confidence in terms of trying to assign odds to short term BTC price moves.

Maybe if we had a poll that were to say, "which one first?"  "$55k or $72k?"

Sure in a thread like this, there would be more votes for $72k, even though those two prices are largely equal distance from our current price (right around $8,500 distance in either direction), yet I will admit that many of us in this here thread are biased for up based on our bags.. so a poll from us might not be very good representations of the actual odds.

[edited out]
..... after hitting enter on that post, I was like certainly way too strong, but I just left it because I'm all dramatic like that.

You and chubby fairy.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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June 12, 2026, 09:24:48 PM
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No more post modifications by me. Let's see what this retarded agent turns into.

Please, be gentle.

what is the bobc equivalent of titanium plates? opposing electrostatic fields?
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June 12, 2026, 09:29:18 PM
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Maybe if we had a poll that were to say, "which one first?"  "$55k or $72k?"

Sure in a thread like this, there would be more votes for $72k, even though those two prices are largely equal distance from our current price (right around $8,500 distance in either direction), yet I will admit that many of us in this here thread are biased for up based on our bags.. so a poll from us might not be very good representations of the actual odds.


I cant remember ever voting bearish but to be honest right now I might vote the 55k option even though if it goes there I expect it would be a spike long hunt and then be the actual bottom.
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June 12, 2026, 09:39:55 PM

No more post modifications by me. Let's see what this retarded agent turns into.

Please, be gentle.

what is the bobc equivalent of titanium plates? opposing electrostatic fields?

porcelain high voltage insulators
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June 12, 2026, 10:28:52 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), vapourminer (2), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

~
For example, I hardly give too many shits about short-term performance because it tends to be a lot of noise. 
Sure, I doubt that any of us who invest in bitcoin are excited about bitcoin price going down when it is supposed to be based on an overall going up principle... Yet, it seems that many of us who have been into bitcoin for a long time and we either accumulated a decent amount of bitcoin early and/or we are largely erroring on the side of buying and/or holding, then we most likely subscribe to the idea that generally speaking bitcoin's price is going to end up tending to go up, even if it might spend more time than we wished going down... so yeah, we continue to either mostly hold or to buy and hold, and sure, there are some of us who might have so many bitcoin that we are just able to sell bitcoin at any price, and maybe we sell fewer bitcoin when we perceive its price to be down rather than up, yet in the whole scheme of things we have enough or more than enough bitcoin for our own purposes.
I stopped being a smart ass, because whatever things I tried in my early bitcoin journey didn't work well or not gave the expected results so I just want back to the basics and stuck with "Buy low, sell high" or in other worlds " Buy Fud, Sell Fomo" since then I started getting the results with little to no effort at all while I am accumulating bitcoin as much as I can in the mean time. I am not a straight HODLer like many others because I entered late so I had to take my chances to increase my stack a bit more. Usually I will go with cashing out when I made 2-2.5x then wait for the crash and then buy with all the money and sure I am buying more as well not really using DCA but with lump sum amount that I get once in a while.

I still question a trading strategy rather than mostly just a buy and hold strategy.  You came into bitcoin similar to me at the top of a cycle price peak, so perhaps if you had already noticed the 2017 price had already ran up, then you might have had started out buying whatever bitcoin conservatively, but then perhaps invested more in mid-to-late 2018 and into 2019, and maybe did most of your accumulation prior to 2021.. but yeah there were some challenging times in there, since the price went down in 2018, and then there was a bit of a peak in 2019, and then it came down again, yet was going up when the March 2020 crash came.

Yet between fairly early in 2018 and until the end of 2020, there were still quite a bit of good buying times in there. If you had decently good ways to frontload your bitcoin investment in that 2018 to 2020 time, then you could well be in a better place as compared to trying to trade either that period or various other times after 2020.  

I know it  can be a bit of a fantasy since even though there might have had been some guys, even in this thread who had been able to frontload their bitcoin investment, the path for the overwhelming majority of normies remains ongoing accumulation from regular income and what discretionary funds are available rather than their having more funds saved up.. so even a guy investing around $100 per week from their regular income from December 2017 until present, he would hav had invested nearly $45k and only accumulated right around 2.85 BTC.  Hopefully whatever trading that you had been doing has been able to at least get you similar levels of returns.. since.. it is not horribly bad to have had continued to just buy bitcoin over the past 8.5 years-ish - probably better to invest in bitcoin than a lot of other possible places to put your money.

I usually proclaim that it is difficult for any trader in bitcoin to beat the buy and hold strategy, especially if we are looking 2 cycles or more. If you have been able to do it, then you are more likely a fluke rather than the usual kind of way that trading would have had turned out.

I also would not blame you for playing around with your bitcoin, for example if you had been able to invest 1-2 years or more of your income into bitcoin within your first 3 years in bitcoin... and yeah, most guys take more than 5 years to be able to even invest a whole year's of their income into bitcoin, but yeah there are some guys who are able to reallocate from other investments that they have in order to get more into bitcoin at an earlier time.

I may have said this already, but again since all the strategy and things about investment came up so let's dive into it. I am not gonna lie, my finances were shitty when I turned to bitcoin, I had the golden opportunity to invest a whole lot of money in 2014 but I am too stupid to understand bitcoin and went with the traditional stupid idea of running a business and it was a complete failure.

So I had to rebuild it completely when I get back on my feet after a couple of years, so even I realized bitcoin had potential, I was not ready to take the risk, so I went heavy on gold too with the money that I started making, which made a huge difference in what I would be sitting with if I went all in on bitcoin only.

Maybe I would have ended up with a much bigger stack if I had simply bought and held from the start, but that assumes I was in a position to take that kind of risk, which I wasn't. So the strategy I said fit into my financial situation even though I know that wasn't the best, but hey I am still in the game and counting more...
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June 12, 2026, 11:20:18 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

FYI, If your still accumulating and waiting for a lower bottom your chances of getting fucked and not having your goal for the next high is extremely high.

Right now we have been in a fire sale and anyone banking on lower without already having a stash is fucking themselves.
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June 12, 2026, 11:45:04 PM
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Meanwhile, while Trumpy is playing hide and seek with his friends, the ECB has raised interest rates for the first time in three years. Is there a chance the FED will do the same at the next meeting?

The European Central Bank has lifted its deposit facility rate by 0.25% to 2.25%, marking a decisive pivot back to tightening as the Iran war pushes eurozone inflation to its highest level in nearly three years. The ECB also raised its main refinancing operations rate to 2.4% and its marginal lending facility rate to 2.65%.

I think it's nearly a certainty.

 I respectfully disagree.

Thank God because it just seems like that would go badly and I'm going to consider your version. And by the way, after hitting enter on that post, I was like certainly way too strong, but I just left it because I'm all dramatic like that. But I think it is a significant chance.


Sadly, the ECB isn't raising rates due to an over-heated economy.  They're doing the exact opposite and purposely trying to cause a controlled stagflation in an attempt to keep energy prices from going higher.  They are intentionally muting their economy which relies on continuous growth to flourish.  Europeans should flee to the USD or bitcoin... or both (my preference would be bitcoin but I might be biased).  The Fed doesn't need to do this because the US is energy independent while also exporting record amounts of oil unmatched by any other country in history - this is not the 1970s and this time it's different­©.  

I think that's pretty damn good analysis.  And if you're right, then what the US might do will quietly signal what we want to happen across the pond.

I think analyst consensus is almost certainly on the Fed will hold.  And it's easy to see warsh walking in with a check and not shaking things up too much.

But we know that the way Trump talks, he wants a cut.  And also we know that who's really making this call most likely is Scott Besant, or at least he has a very heavy hand in it.

The thing is, what they choose to do is probably more monumental at this particular juncture  than quite some time.

What gets chosen to do is going to be a big piece of information.  Do you suspect if they hold the markets will respond one way or another?  The other two outcomes seem obvious

 I'm usually only ever thinking of my corn and my CAD (at least when it comes to the economy)... and nothing's going to help the latter because while the increasing oil price should boost the CAD, it helps the USD even more and we can't even move oil any better than 15 years ago.  Also, for some reason Bitcoin is considered a risky asset when inflation hits and interest rates increase (which just seems backwards to me) so I've got nothing but an extreme long term vision where my corn denominated in any fiat will be great and my CAD isn't worth the paper it's printed on.  I don't live paycheque to paycheck so what's going on right now is just annoying background static.

 The US rates are already sitting in neutral territory so doing nothing is probably the best option if they can manage that until the Iran thing is over.  They could be real pricks and devastate the European economy by signaling future increases in the rate.  I'm pretty sure China would feel max pain as well in that case and it wont be that great for muh CADs either.  I don't think as far as America is concerned there could be a wrong move by holding or even slightly increasing the rate.  US Energy independence was a smart move.

 I imagine there will be many emergency phone calls from world leaders to the Whitehouse and the Fed, before the next meeting, begging them to hold interest rates... and deals will be made.  As for me, it's Bitcoin ftw.
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