Maybe if we had a poll that were to say, "which one first?" "$55k or $72k?"
Sure in a thread like this, there would be more votes for $72k, even though those two prices are largely equal distance from our current price (right around $8,500 distance in either direction), yet I will admit that many of us in this here thread are biased for up based on our bags.. so a poll from us might not be very good representations of the actual odds.
I cant remember ever voting bearish but to be honest right now I might vote the 55k option even though if it goes there I expect it would be a spike long hunt and then be the actual bottom.
Hahahaha
I am pretty sure that an overwhelming majority of the times, I tend to error on the side of bullish, yet such a poll (as the one I just proposed) is pretty harsh because it does not give a timeline and it just asks to pick one or the other, since it seems that sooner or later, one or the other is going to end up happening. It is just a matter of time.
Another thing is that sometimes it can be difficult for any of us to try to be completely objective, even if we might think that we are being as close to objective as we are able to be.
I am really not sure which I would vote, since if I try to be honest with myself, since about early February I have come to terms that we are in a "bear market," and my own definition of a bear market is both that down is more likely than up and it cannot be firmly believed that the bottom is "in."
Of course, I am just mostly making up my own definition of part of what I believe a bear market means, so my having had assessed that we are in a bear market almost forces me to have to believe that odds for down are higher than odds for up, yet do I have to concede all the way down to $55k? I am struggling with if I have to concede on that kind of a narrow question about which one is going to come first, $55k or $72k?
Now if the range is narrower, then the odds for down are probably higher. But if the range is broader, then maybe I still don't have to concede the down number and still concede that we are currently in a bear market.
At some point, we are no longer going to be in a bear market, yet we are far from having underlying BTC price dynamics that justify that we have made enough distance from our current local bottom in order to be able to have some confidence that our current local bottom is not going to be touched again, or breached.
Historically, and with experience, many of us (including yours truly) have witnessed long and brutal periods in which it begins to feel that "we are never going to get out of our current doldrums." most of 2015 was pretty bad in that regard. 2022 and 2023 combined was pretty brutal, too. Our drop to $3,800 in March 2020 was fairly brutal, but it was also fairly quick, too.. even though some folks did get completely recked from what happened in that time and the sentiment around that time, too (not only mindrust, even though mindrust is famous in these here parts for both his behavior in that period, but his posting around the topic in such a way that so many of us had a feeling that he was "making history" and "a name for himself" in those times and how he presented the topic).
No more post modifications by me. Let's see what this retarded agent turns into.
Please, be gentle.
what is the bobc equivalent of titanium plates? opposing electrostatic fields?
porcelain high voltage insulators
It seems to me that there is a need for "non-physical" plates - whatever they might end up being.
[edited out]
I may have said this already, but again since all the strategy and things about investment came up so let's dive into it. I am not gonna lie, my finances were shitty when I turned to bitcoin, I had the golden opportunity to invest a whole lot of money in 2014 but I am too stupid to understand bitcoin and went with the traditional stupid idea of running a business and it was a complete failure.
So I had to rebuild it completely when I get back on my feet after a couple of years, so even I realized bitcoin had potential, I was not ready to take the risk, so I went heavy on gold too with the money that I started making, which made a huge difference in what I would be sitting with if I went all in on bitcoin only.
Maybe I would have ended up with a much bigger stack if I had simply bought and held from the start, but that assumes I was in a position to take that kind of risk, which I wasn't. So the strategy I said fit into my financial situation even though I know that wasn't the best, but hey I am still in the game and counting more...
For sure, none of us can turn back time, and the best we can hope for is to sufficiently learn from any mistakes that we had made in order to take better actions in the present and into the future.
And, surely some kinds of mistakes are BIGGER and worse than others, including the way you present the mistakes as opportunity costs that you had not realized to have had been opportunity costs until several years later after the investments had already been made.
Part of the reason that I was quasi-lecturing you in the first place related to my concerns about what seemed to have been (and continue to be) your conclusion that it is good to fuck around with trying to trade bitcoin, even if you were saying that you were finding solace in 2x to 2.5x returns, and so many of us guys would have had been totally fucked if we had been taking 2x or even 5x returns, and sometimes we really cannot be sure if the price will end up going down below our sales point, in the event that we had sold a big chunk of bitcoin based on our perception of sufficient profits and also our perception that we will be able to buy back cheaper.
If you look at my own rendition of "
The Power of Compounding" in regards to the 2015 BTC prices to 2025 (and even now), there were like 9 doublings in there, yet the 9 doublings add up to around 512x compounding value (even though right now we corrected back down to "only" 256x in compoundings). In other words, I really don't see how guys can value by shaving off high portions of their BTC based on doublings of the value, and ever since I started in bitcoin, I have tended to consider that any bitcoin that I sell, I won't be able to buy it back.. and yeah, sure I had been able to buy bitcoin, yet the amount of bitcoin that I tend to sell on the way up, tends to be relatively small, such as less than 10% of my holdings for every doubling, and sure you could go up to 25% for every doubling, but you are going to end up diminishing the compounding value that is likely going to continue into bitcoin (even though maybe you believe that the compoundings are over or about to be over.... I don't buy that perspective of bitcoin's likely future price performance).
Poll
