Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

You guys, this is nuts. I'll soon be able to demonstrate how merits turn into actual BTC, and where that BTC is going.  

Stop giving out merits to shitposters. God damnit.

 Ah, they likely really need the money because they've run out of spare organs to sell.

There are actually a few different types of shitposters. Some honestly need the money and some are part of complex webs that basically amount to low-level criminal organizations.

I've uncovered some of the strangest behaviors of unknown forum accounts recently.

For example, there's one account who ONLY reports his daily push-ups in the push-up thread. That's all he does!

I seem to have scared whasss face off.

One harsh word about always fanning his balls at us about cycles.

[Hueristic]

You guys, this is nuts. I'll soon be able to demonstrate how merits turn into actual BTC, and where that BTC is going.  

Stop giving out merits to shitposters. God damnit.

 Ah, they likely really need the money because they've run out of spare organs to sell.

There are actually a few different types of shitposters. Some honestly need the money and some are part of complex webs that basically amount to low-level criminal organizations.

I've uncovered some of the strangest behaviors of unknown forum accounts recently.

For example, there's one account who ONLY reports his daily push-ups in the push-up thread. That's all he does!

I seem to have scared whasss face off.

One harsh word about always fanning his balls at us about cycles.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[[btc]]

iFunny watermark spotted.
I feel like a sleeper agent that just got activated.
Nearing 4,000 days on that godforsaken app.
I wonder what the next rank is after 'Meme Architect'?

Price of bitcoin closed that day ( November 18, 2018) at $334.59.



Oldest meme on the app when searching 'bitcoin' and sorting by date, posted on November 11, 2018:



Comment with the most likes, that was related to bitcoin (rest were about Stan Lee's passing):

[philipma1957]

we grind a long crab like for a while.

I am going to make a crabmeat salad today to see if buddy wakes up a bit more.

[Hueristic]

iFunny watermark spotted.
I feel like a sleeper agent that just got activated.
Nearing 4,000 days on that godforsaken app.
I wonder what the next rank is after 'Meme Architect'?...

Nah, was just a choice from  duckduckgo's image selector.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fwman]

Nothing could be predicted, but there are trends, which may or may not repeat.

There is one 'tell', though: CNBC pundits, especially that 'judge' (lol) are hard on bitcoin, specifically. They say almost nothing about silver, which declined similar % from the top (slightly more rn).
This is always happening when WS is looking for a bargain to ride the "item" hard later on and that item is bitcoin.
This does not mean that bottom is here already, but it is quite possible.

All those HBM acolytes who think that memory pricing is sustainable-it never was before. The memory "top" is either in or will be in very shortly, imho.
Large AI chips don't even use HBM, but regular cheaper DRAM.
You can still make 30-40% in memory stocks, but you won't make 10x in them, imho.

EDIT: short term-a potential inverse head-and-shoulders-a bullish pattern.

It's actually interesting theory! thanks. After about 3 cycles(around 2017), I know for sure nothing is 100% in Crypto, maybe this price is near the bottom, maybe we will see some crash from here, I don't know, but for someone who has cash in hand cost averaging is the best friend!

[fwman]

Which one of following forces is stronger in near to mid future?

1- Positive upward forces, forces to lead to higher price for Bitcoin: demands from institutions or retails via ETF specially, rules easing and clear rules for better Bitcoin adoption for institutions, individuals etc, inflation fear.

2- Negative downward forces which actually act to lower Bitcoin price: fear of Quantum computing race to break the system, higher AI demands and more profitable AI industry to cause mining resources/power redirecting to AI industry, Stocks performance comparing to Bitcoin performance.

I think, these are important ones, but it's good if someone wants to add.

who cares about the next 1 to 100 days

not I and neither should you.  as a dude once told me buy the dip

and 62k vs 126k is tasty dip.

so if you have 3 units of fiat to spend spend 1 unit very soon and wait a while to spend the second unit of fiat.

Yea, you're right for general rule based on past cycles. But I more interested for next 2 to 3 years, I want to know(maybe somehow it can be predicted, don't know) which resultant force will be there then!

do not worry I am god obey my guidance (just a joke)   

   but the .333+.333+.333 =0.999  idea is pretty much not so bad of an idea.

It's subset of cost averaging. it's actually good idea.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

How much do we need to reach before we consider calling it a trend reversal? $70k or more? Inflation numbers came out much better than expected!

Anyone?

[OutOfMemory]

How much do we need to reach before we consider calling it a trend reversal? $70k or more? Inflation numbers came out much better than expected!

Anyone?

We'd need to get over the january high, so about an over $97k-ish monthly close would confirm a bull market, from the view of the conservative analyst.

EDIT: in general, price sustaining over a previous support level would be good news, breaking up through the next ex-support from there would be even better.

[Biodom]

How much do we need to reach before we consider calling it a trend reversal? $70k or more? Inflation numbers came out much better than expected!

Anyone?

We'd need to get over the january high, so about an over $97k-ish monthly close would confirm a bull market, from the view of the conservative analyst.

EDIT: in general, price sustaining over a previous support level would be good news, breaking up through the next ex-support from there would be even better.

As seen on the interwebs: bull market would begin shortly after LeBron signs up for a new (or old) team aka after July 26.
 

Source:
https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ujzawm/bitcoin_cycle_theory_is_dead_long_live_the_lebron/

I have something that is even better (World cup-linked bitcoin cycle^TM):
As soon as the World Cup exits the group stage, start DCAing (true for 2014, 2018 (not a great timing, but OK for DCA), 2022 (helped by Nov-Dec cup, lol), 2026?)

[BitHodlers]

How much do we need to reach before we consider calling it a trend reversal? $70k or more? Inflation numbers came out much better than expected!

Anyone?

We'd need to get over the january high, so about an over $97k-ish monthly close would confirm a bull market, from the view of the conservative analyst.

EDIT: in general, price sustaining over a previous support level would be good news, breaking up through the next ex-support from there would be even better.

Thank you. We are still pretty far away, but we are in exciting times. In the coming months either the cycle theory will hold or it will fall like most models that we have had. FED data was good, now if they could also stop waging wars after LeBron signs to a new team we would be going to the moon. 

As seen on the interwebs: bull market would begin shortly after LeBron signs up for a new (or old) team aka after July 26.
 

Source:
https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ujzawm/bitcoin_cycle_theory_is_dead_long_live_the_lebron/

I love it!! This TA is better and more honest than most pretentious TA! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

With that hardware you really should be using a Q6 at minimum, q4's are shit and only good for chatbots.

Q6 is GGUF/llama-cpp only. Not available for SGLang / safetensors.

I got an FP8 running yesterday, but it was not really worth it losing 15 TPS for the ~2% logic benchmark improvement.

Happy with Qwen 3.6 35b a3b NVFP4 under SGLang at the moment. Getting about 65 tps up to about 5 clients at once, and starts dropping down towards 40 tps as it gets closer to 10 concurrent connections.

50 tps on the FP8 was too slow for me. Anything below 60 tps and I start to get cranky.

VLLM was a mess. Ran into a very strange case testing it, where the text would become more and more garbled as the context window started approaching 128k/262k. Evidently the GB 10 is a second class citizen for VLLM at the moment. I'm fine with that honestly. SGlang seems more solid and reliable. VLLM is kind flaky, but does perform better with smaller contexts.

EDIT: Thinking of buying a third DGX Spark now. Rick is becoming concerned. The Asus GX10 serves as the main BobClawblaw system, and using the NVDA DGX Spark for SGLang and large model testing. I don't want to interrupt BobC any more since he's more-or-less stable. Was thinking of linking two official NVDA DGX Sparks together to test larger models, so that BobC can live independent of that work. RN I can't do large model testing without kicking BobC in teh nuts.

Oh yeah, also have a 5090 system coming in to be the fast single stream orchestrator via llama-cpp. Fun times. This infrastructure being set up to support my AI tinkering is starting to get out of hand...

EDIT2: Derp. I think I understand what you are saying. I can run a better quant for Bob, since he doesn't need the speed. Sorry, my head has been so optimized for speed lately on the second spark, that I forgot that Bob doesnt need to be fast. Lemme get a Q8 up and running later today.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

You guys, this is nuts. I'll soon be able to demonstrate how merits turn into actual BTC, and where that BTC is going.  

Stop giving out merits to shitposters. God damnit.

 Ah, they likely really need the money because they've run out of spare organs to sell.

There are actually a few different types of shitposters. Some honestly need the money and some are part of complex webs that basically amount to low-level criminal organizations.

I've uncovered some of the strangest behaviors of unknown forum accounts recently.

For example, there's one account who ONLY reports his daily push-ups in the push-up thread. That's all he does!

 Very interesting... the push-up guy could be an El duderino_ alt. 

[shahzadafzal]

The sparkle fairy has lit some green candles. She's feeling good about it.

No offense, but AI is ruining art… one prompt at a time. 😄

This was an art … In search of gold, we lost the diamond…!!!

To each their own, and I appreciate the sentiment.  But as a total aphantasiac AI image creation is fun as heck for me.

Nah man, that comment wasn't aimed at your post specifically. Trust me... it was more of a general rant about AI and how it's ruining redefining art. 😄

Don't get me wrong, I'm just as guilty. I use AI day and night, both at work and at home.

My kids ask for bedtime stories, and with one prompt I get the whole package: the story, posters, illustrations, and sometimes even animations. 😄

The fun part? I keep the main characters the same age as my kids and even use their names. They absolutely love it because, in their minds, they're the heroes saving the world every night. 😂

So yes, AI image generation is incredible. It's just that sometimes I miss the days when we'd look at a piece of art and wonder, *"Wow... how long did it take the artist to create this?"* Instead, now we wonder, *"Which model and prompt did they use?"* 😄