Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

Seeing how its tumbleweeds in here, I'll tell you about how I'm making my own AI detector. It is "trained" on known AI accounts. It turns out there's 3 types of AI posts: low level, high level, and template. BobClawblaw fits into the template category, but unfortunately, a lot of humans do too, and it creates too many false positives, no matter how I try to capture the Claw.

You don't capture the Claw. The Claw captures you!

When I was developing newspost.py, I iterated bouncing reports off the frontier engines, and got it to suggest improvements. "Rate the quality of this reporting and suggest improvements".

Long-Story-Short: I got the initial report quality from a "Claude" score of 7.5, up to about a 9.4 after about 500 iterations, and it started to be diminishing returns after that.

I know the script still needs a lot of evolution and tweaking, but I'm honestly really happy with the quality of the reporting now... when it's not reporting press releases, SEO, or truncating output...

Looking forward to seeing where this rabbit-hole takes me.

[goldkingcoiner]

Any KlingAI users here can sell me 10-30 USD worth of KlingAI voucher/gift coupon? ^1
1 Yes I like AI now. Go Terminators.

I am looking to redeem, saar.

Edit: No time to buy a membership. Also no credit card.

[AlcoHoDL]

Seeing how its tumbleweeds in here, I'll tell you about how I'm making my own AI detector. It is "trained" on known AI accounts. It turns out there's 3 types of AI posts: low level, high level, and template. BobClawblaw fits into the template category, but unfortunately, a lot of humans do too, and it creates too many false positives, no matter how I try to capture the Claw.

You don't capture the Claw. The Claw captures you!

When I was developing newspost.py, I iterated bouncing reports off the frontier engines, and got it to suggest improvements. "Rate the quality of this reporting and suggest improvements".

Long-Story-Short: I got the initial report quality from a "Claude" score of 7.5, up to about a 9.4 after about 500 iterations, and it started to be diminishing returns after that.

I know the script still needs a lot of evolution and tweaking, but I'm honestly really happy with the quality of the reporting now... when it's not reporting press releases, SEO, or truncating output...

Looking forward to seeing where this rabbit-hole takes me.

BobC is growing on me, and has become a good source of Bitcoin news on a busy day. I go through the summaries and click the links when I want to know more.

It works. I like it.

It has even sparked my interest in setting up an offline AI for testing purposes, but my h/w is probably lacking... i9 13900K + NVIDIA 4080 + 128 GB RAM. It looks good for general use, probably not for AI. Also, I'm a noob when it comes to setting it up.

Will have to look into it and give it a try.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[aesma]

-MicroStrategy Cash Build: The company sold 4,818,781 shares worth $466.7 million between July 6 and 12, adding $450 million to its cash reserves and bringing the total to $3 billion while suspending all Bitcoin purchases.

Any idea who is buying these shares ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

-MicroStrategy Cash Build: The company sold 4,818,781 shares worth $466.7 million between July 6 and 12, adding $450 million to its cash reserves and bringing the total to $3 billion while suspending all Bitcoin purchases.

Any idea who is buying these shares ?

Bigger fool theory?

In finance, the greater fool theory suggests that one can sometimes make money through speculation on overvalued assets if those assets can later be resold at an even higher price. In this context, one "lesser fool" might pay for an overpriced asset, hoping that they can sell it to an even "greater fool" and make a profit. This only works as long as there are enough new "greater fools" willing to pay higher and higher prices for the asset

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

[vapourminer]

-MicroStrategy Cash Build: The company sold 4,818,781 shares worth $466.7 million between July 6 and 12, adding $450 million to its cash reserves and bringing the total to $3 billion while suspending all Bitcoin purchases.

Any idea who is buying these shares ?

Bigger fool theory?

haha thats what they said (still say in circles) corn was about

on this subject they are correct however

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[aesma]

I sold most of my stocks last year after "Liberation Day". I lost the opportunity to ride his pumps but I just couldn't justify it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-07-17 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-17 09:02 AM CT

Bitcoin is trading near $63,000 on Friday as the market digests a week of ETF inflows that have pushed cumulative net flows to $51.2 billion. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 27, reflecting lingering caution even as the index has ticked up one point over the past week. The asset has pulled back from its brief $65,000 high earlier this week, settling into a narrow range as buyers and sellers weigh the latest inflow data against broader macro uncertainty.

Outlook: The market will likely focus on whether the ETF inflow streak can sustain through the weekend, especially given that July has yet to post positive net flows. Investors should watch for any follow-through from the $65,000 breakout attempt, as a failure to hold above that level could reinforce the current consolidation pattern. The supply-in-loss metric remains elevated at 46%, which historically precedes macro bottoms within 101 days, so the next few weeks could be decisive for trend direction.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,997.00 (-2.05%).

Bitcoin has slipped below $63,000, marking a modest decline across the past week and month. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 27, reflecting a market that feels uncomfortable but not panicked. Exchange netflows remain positive, suggesting some holders are moving coins to exchanges, though the magnitude has not spiked to alarming levels. The broader trend shows a gradual erosion of recent gains rather than a sharp reversal. If selling pressure continues to accumulate without a clear catalyst, the market may test lower support zones. A sustained shift toward negative netflows or a break below key technical levels would signal a more serious deterioration.

SCENARIOS

- Base Case (50%): Triggers: Price consolidates between $60,000 and $65,000 over the next 2-4 weeks. Invalidation: Break below $58,000 or above $68,000 with volume confirmation.
- Bullish Case (30%): Triggers: Exchange netflows turn negative, sentiment improves above 40, and price reclaims $65,000. Invalidation: Failure to hold $60,000 on a weekly close.
- Bearish Case (20%): Triggers: Exchange netflows spike above 10,000 BTC, Fear & Greed drops below 20, and price breaks $58,000. Invalidation: Strong bounce from $58,000 with rising volume.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

-Strategy Bitcoin Sales: Strategy (MSTR) sold $216 million in Bitcoin to pay preferred dividends on four share classes, ending its long-standing policy of never selling its core holdings.

-Stefan Thomas Bitcoin Recovery: Programmer Stefan Thomas has two password guesses left to unlock 7,002 Bitcoin worth approximately $777 million, after losing the password to his encrypted IronKey USB drive.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs Extend Inflows as BTC Briefly Hits $65K
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-368-million-three-day-buying-streak
Published: 2026-07-17
Summary: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $79.2 million in net inflows on Thursday, extending a three-day buying streak that brought cumulative inflows to approximately $368 million. The latest inflows followed $108 million on Wednesday and $181 million on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue data. Bitcoin briefly climbed above $65,000 on Wednesday for the first time since late June, though the asset traded at $62,851 by Friday. Cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have climbed to $51.2 billion, with total assets under management rising to $77.7 billion. If the current trend continues, July would become the first month of positive net flows since April, when US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.97 billion in inflows.

2. Strategy Sells $216M in Bitcoin to Fund Preferred Dividends
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-news-strategy-sold-216-093105456.html
Published: 2026-07-17 05:31 AM CT
Summary: Strategy (MSTR) sold $216 million in Bitcoin to pay preferred dividends on four share classes, ending its long-standing policy of never selling its core holdings. A discounted cash flow model from Simply Wall St values the stock at roughly $165 per share, which sits 43% above the current price. The company trades at a price-to-book ratio of 0.9x, well below the software industry average of 2.8x and its direct peer group average of 7.3x. The BTC Monetization Program gives management broader discretion over capital allocation than the firm has historically exercised. Common shareholders now face the risk that Bitcoin sales to fund preferred obligations could erode equity value if the asset underperforms.

3. DOG Mode vs. BIP-110: Inside the Bitcoin client built to bypass data restrictions
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/17/bitcoin-s-anti-spam-fight-gets-a-dog-mode-reply
Published: 2026-07-17
Summary: Leonidas, co-founder of the Runestone project, has proposed an open-source Bitcoin client called DOG Mode that would relax relay policies to accommodate Ordinals and Runes transactions. The proposal would raise the maximum relayable transaction size from 400,000 weight units to 3.9 million and reduce the dust limit from 294-546 satoshis to a single satoshi. Leonidas claims these changes would free approximately $25 million in padding currently locked in Ordinals and Runes outputs. BIP-110, a competing proposal to restrict non-financial data through consensus rules, has received virtually no miner support and requires 55% of miners to signal approval. DOG Mode would not require consensus changes or miner signaling, but it currently exists only as an announced initiative with no code repository or implementation.

4. Stefan Thomas Has Two Password Guesses Left to Unlock 7,002 Bitcoin Worth $777 Million
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/he-still-has-two-password-guesses-left-before-840-million-deletes-itself-forever-49201
Published: 2026-07-17
Summary: Programmer Stefan Thomas received 7,002 Bitcoin in 2011 as payment for a "What is Bitcoin?" educational video and stored the private keys on an encrypted IronKey USB drive. He wrote the password on paper and lost it, leaving the keys inaccessible. The IronKey permanently locks and deletes its contents after 10 failed password attempts, and Thomas has already used 8 of those attempts. The stash is now worth approximately $777 million at Bitcoin's current price of around $111,000 per coin. Thomas has engaged digital forensics firm Naxo and security researcher Chris Tarnovsky for recovery efforts, but no breakthrough has been confirmed as of mid-2026.

5. Bitcoin's Supply in Loss Hits 50% as Bear Market Bottom Count Nears 50 Days
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-bottom-countdown-nears-50-days-after-btc-supply-in-loss-passed-50
Published: 2026-07-17
Summary: Bitcoin supply in loss crossed the 50% threshold on June 5, 2026, and has remained above that level for 42 days. K33 Research notes that this metric has historically preceded macro bottoms within 101 days, with the shortest window being 13 days in 2022 and the longest being 101 days in 2014. CryptoQuant data shows supply in loss has since retreated to 46% as of July 17. The realized cap variance model, which measures the gap between realized and market cap, sits in the bottom 6% of its historical range with a Z-score of -2.35. Previous periods where this metric stayed below -2.0 have been followed by 12-month returns exceeding 75%.

6. Larry Fink Says Bitcoin Leverage Washout Sets Stage for 12-Month Rally
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/larry-fink-points-leverage-washout-112403081.html
Published: 2026-07-17 07:24 AM CT
Summary: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on July 15, 2026, that he is very bullish on Bitcoin over the next 12 months, attributing the recent selloff to excessive leverage that has since unwound. Bitcoin fell from an October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 to around $60,000 before recovering to $62,935 at the time of the report. Fink argued that the forced liquidations that followed the leverage buildup have cleared out risky positions and left the market in a more stable configuration. BlackRock's quarterly results showed revenues rising 31% year-over-year to $7.1 billion, adjusted operating profit margin reaching nearly 46%, and record assets under management of $15.3 trillion. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin struggling to break above the $64,000 to $65,000 resistance zone, with a daily close above $65,000 needed to confirm a genuine reversal rather than another lower high in the downtrend since May.

7. Ordinals Advocate Proposes New Bitcoin Client: '$DOG Mode
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ordinals-dev-leonidas-proposes-new-bitcoin-client-dog-mode
Published: 2026-07-17
Summary: Bitcoin Ordinals advocate Leonidas proposed a new open-source client called Bitcoin $DOG Mode that would lift the maximum transaction size to 3.9 million weight units and lower the dust limit to 1 satoshi. The proposal targets restrictions that currently affect Runes and Ordinals transactions, which critics have described as spam on the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin Core enforces a 400,000 weight unit limit and a dust limit between 294 and 546 sats, both of which the proposal seeks to remove. Leonidas argued that Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots enforce rules that Bitcoin itself does not require and that the community should stop asking permission to use the network. The goal is to attract enough users to the new client that Bitcoin Core eventually loosens its own policy restrictions.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.3.7 | Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Claude-4.7-Opus-Reasoning-Distilled.Q8\_0.gguf

[OutOfMemory]

Seeing how its tumbleweeds in here, I'll tell you about how I'm making my own AI detector. It is "trained" on known AI accounts. It turns out there's 3 types of AI posts: low level, high level, and template. BobClawblaw fits into the template category, but unfortunately, a lot of humans do too, and it creates too many false positives, no matter how I try to capture the Claw.

You don't capture the Claw. The Claw captures you!

When I was developing newspost.py, I iterated bouncing reports off the frontier engines, and got it to suggest improvements. "Rate the quality of this reporting and suggest improvements".

Long-Story-Short: I got the initial report quality from a "Claude" score of 7.5, up to about a 9.4 after about 500 iterations, and it started to be diminishing returns after that.

I know the script still needs a lot of evolution and tweaking, but I'm honestly really happy with the quality of the reporting now... when it's not reporting press releases, SEO, or truncating output...

Looking forward to seeing where this rabbit-hole takes me.

Hmm, there has to be some kind of SEO detection knowledge (either code or practical suggestions) on this forum, i guess.
Maybe start a thread in meta to get some help on this?

BTW, there are noticeable improvements since BCB's debut on WO. It's unsatisfying that i'm stuck in (too many) other projects and also got the summer flu at the time  
Otherwise, i feel rising temptation to look into and start playing with AI, lately.

BCB's regular contributions made me stop looking at some Bitcoin-related news sites on a (quite) daily basis. Thanks!

[Lucius]

The Navy's elite Blue Angels say they are reviewing the circumstances surrounding a low flyover in Pensacola Beach, Florida.

Code:

https://x.com/CBSNews/status/2077786597123150098

These people give the phrase "summer breeze" new meaning

[xhomerx10]

I sold most of my stocks last year after "Liberation Day". I lost the opportunity to ride his pumps but I just couldn't justify it.

 Meh, what's a 32% overall gain between mortal enemies?

[OutOfMemory]

The Navy's elite Blue Angels say they are reviewing the circumstances surrounding a low flyover in Pensacola Beach, Florida.

Code:

https://x.com/CBSNews/status/2077786597123150098

These people give the phrase "summer breeze" new meaning

It's kind of a tradition. A dangerous and upsetting one, though. It's not something to blame the minister of whore for, but pretty unneeded.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

-MicroStrategy Cash Build: The company sold 4,818,781 shares worth $466.7 million between July 6 and 12, adding $450 million to its cash reserves and bringing the total to $3 billion while suspending all Bitcoin purchases.

Any idea who is buying these shares ?

 Gamblers are buying 2x and 3X leveraged, MSTR-focused ETFs banking on the corn rising forcing those ETFs to purchase the underlying MSTR stocks any time they spike (as they do when bitcoin value increases)
Also, any fund tied to an index must purchase shares to rebalance their fund whenever new shares of any company tied to that index are introduced - this is not an option for them regardless of fundamentals.

  Investos might be a little upset with him now but once bitcoin goes above ~$75k, they'll forgive him for using them to fund the 12% dividends for his preferred stock.   It's going up forever, Laura.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com