Ok..here are my macro comments...
First off, there are some influencers who suggest that economic growth would soon become at least 10-15% in US and potentially even higher.
Additionally, they also suggest that the current setup suggests up to 8% interest rates which AI companies would be able to pay, but apart from them and hyperscalers, no one company would be able to.
Third, they suggest that leading AI companies would essentially produce more workers (in AI form) that there are currently people on Earth, concentrating essentially all economic activities in maybe 5-10 companies. This suggest incredible centralization of the economic power. Here are the Patel brothers talk that made rounds in the media recently:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV26V1UvkJwDario Amodei went as far, allegedly, as to suggest that there would be only Anthropic and the governments, albeit he later disavowed this view, also allegedly.
Others suggest (Emad Mostaque on the Peter McCormick show) that within 2 years 50% of the workforce activity could be replicated:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOIJ8m2rSC4It seems that bitcoin is the only parameter that might help people in retaining any modicum of an economic independence as both stock an bond markets might decline.
SP500 might be OK, but investment in individual non-AI companies might not be advisable...if fact, i am thinking of cutting my own investments in unrelated sectors; sectors that move too slowly.
See here, for example (Pomp and J. Visser):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjJxrTal_SkI am happy to hold bitcoin, small amount of alts and SP500, but would be changing other investments soonish.
Pensions are probably screwed if they don't have cost of living adjustment (COLA). Most educational pensions do not and at a 8% inflation, the pension value drops in half after 9 years.
Social security (which has COLA) in US is under a threat of a 20% cut in 6-7 years...would it happen, I don't know, so i decided not to worry about it.
Holding bitcoin might be the best financial decision going forward...really.
Not an investment advice.
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