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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 41 (39.4%)
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No - we need to set a new low first - 25 (24%)
No - other (explain below) - 15 (14.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27052634 times)
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AlcoHoDL
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September 07, 2026, 11:29:25 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)


Soros, Rothschild’s, WEF backed destruction.

You will own nothing and you will be happy.

well there is one thing i can own: a secret number that no one else knows.

I have a laminated card.

It has 48 digit number created at random.

So 160 bit of entropy

On a 3 by 5 index card laminated.

I used these tiles

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07MBJ3DLR?ref_=ppx_hzsearch_conn_dt_b_fed_asin_title_1

If i picked 100 that would  be 00.

After a tile is picked write it down that put in back in a box

Say

01,02,03,04,05,06
07,08,09,10,11,12
13,14,15,16,17,18
19,20,21,22,23,24

That is 160 bits on random entropy

Only I have it. And if I want i could make a longer number if used with core

I do it the traditional way. 24-word seed, specially encoded on paper, laminated and placed in 3 different physical locations.

Using steel or other fire-proof material is nice, but with 3 different physical locations, the probability that all 3 get destroyed is practically zero.
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September 08, 2026, 01:04:10 AM


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September 08, 2026, 01:39:18 AM


Soros, Rothschild’s, WEF backed destruction.

You will own nothing and you will be happy.

well there is one thing i can own: a secret number that no one else knows.

I have a laminated card.

It has 48 digit number created at random.

So 160 bit of entropy

On a 3 by 5 index card laminated.

I used these tiles

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07MBJ3DLR?ref_=ppx_hzsearch_conn_dt_b_fed_asin_title_1

If i picked 100 that would  be 00.

After a tile is picked write it down that put in back in a box

Say

01,02,03,04,05,06
07,08,09,10,11,12
13,14,15,16,17,18
19,20,21,22,23,24

That is 160 bits on random entropy

Only I have it. And if I want i could make a longer number if used with core

I do it the traditional way. 24-word seed, specially encoded on paper, laminated and placed in 3 different physical locations.

Using steel or other fire-proof material is nice, but with 3 different physical locations, the probability that all 3 get destroyed is practically zero.

I recommend never divulging the methods you decide on unless it is a diversionary tactic, especially on a open forum.
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September 08, 2026, 01:54:55 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

I recommend never divulging the methods you decide on unless it is a diversionary tactic, especially on a open forum.

so, when threw/burried hundreds and hundrids of bits electronic parts, different types of ferrous and non ferrous metals and all kinds of wires and junk bits all over my properties, yards and stompingrounds i shouldnt have admitted that?

oooops
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September 08, 2026, 02:04:10 AM


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September 08, 2026, 02:05:40 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)



Soros, Rothschild’s, WEF backed destruction.

You will own nothing and you will be happy.

well there is one thing i can own: a secret number that no one else knows.

7?

It's seven, right?
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September 08, 2026, 02:27:18 AM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-07 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-07 09:18 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding higher over the week, up 2.4% over seven days, as ETF inflows dominate the tape and sentiment remains greedy. Monday's tape is only modestly softer, down 0.67% over 24 hours, after a 30-day move of +22.3%.

Outlook: The next test is whether the Liquid sidechain pause resolves without broader confidence damage. The market also needs to see if the white-hat return leaves any residual risk in the peg-out path.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $79,384.00, down 0.67% over 24 hours and up 2.4% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +5 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers still own the larger trend after a 22.3% gain over the past month, but the session's soft tone suggests they are digesting gains rather than pressing the attack. Sentiment at 69 on the Fear and Greed index sits in Greed territory, consistent with the risk-on regime but also with a market where much of the optimism is already priced in. The mild positive tilt in the momentum and sentiment composite points to participation that is broad but unhurried. In practical terms, $78,000 is the line buyers must defend and $81,000 is the ceiling they have yet to clear, so a daily close below $78,000 would hand control to sellers and open the path to $76,500, while a close above $81,000 would put $82,500 in play.

SCENARIOS

- Sideways Grind Above $78,000 (47%): triggers: Greed at 69 and a 22.3% monthly gain argue for digestion rather than breakout or breakdown, so the base case needs daily closes to keep printing above $78,000 within five trading days while price keeps stalling under $81,000. Invalidation: any single daily close below $78,000 within five trading days ends this scenario on the spot.
- Breakout Through $81,000 Toward $82,500 (36%): triggers: a daily close above $81,000 within five trading days would confirm demand is outrunning supply at the ceiling and set $82,500 as the next objective, with the signal looking stronger if the Fear and Greed index rises from 69 instead of cooling. Invalidation: if no such close prints within five trading days, or price closes under $78,000 first, the setup is void.
- Break of $78,000 Toward $76,500 (17%): triggers: profit-taking after a 22.3% month is the live risk, and sellers take control only if a daily close slips below $78,000 within five trading days, which would put $76,500 in reach as late longs unwind. Invalidation: this scenario dies if $78,000 keeps holding on daily closes within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- U.S. employment data: The stronger jobs print revived questions about Federal Reserve rate expectations, which can influence risk appetite for Bitcoin.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs Take 79% of Weekly Crypto ETF Inflows as Funds Add $1.24B
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-etf/bitcoin-takes-79-of-crypto-etf-weekly-inflows-as-funds-add-1-24b
Published: 2026-09-07
Summary: U.S. crypto ETFs took in about $1.24 billion during the week of Aug. 31 to Sept. 4, and bitcoin funds captured $986.85 million of it, roughly 79.4% of the total. Spot bitcoin ETFs logged a third straight week of gains and closed with net assets of $101.25 billion, with Thursday alone bringing $730.87 million, the biggest daily inflow since Jan. 14, as bitcoin pushed above $80,000. BlackRock's IBIT led the week with $691.51 million, followed by Ark & 21Shares' ARKB at $137.74 million and Fidelity's FBTC at $94.88 million, while Grayscale's GBTC lost $48 million. Ether ETFs added $218.41 million, XRP funds $18.96 million.27 million, leaving bitcoin and ether at about 97% of combined inflows versus 84.5% the prior week. Trading cooled even as money concentrated, with bitcoin ETF turnover down about 24% to $14.5 billion and combined turnover across the five categories down 27% to $19.3 billion, and stronger U.S. employment data late in the week revived questions over whether Federal Reserve rate expectations will keep inflows elevated.

2. White Hats Return 3,400 BTC to Liquid, Keep 598.5 BTC
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/liquid-gets-3400-btc-back-after-on-chain-talks-white-hats-keep-598-5-btc
Published: 2026-09-07 05:02 PM CT
Summary: White-hat actors withdrew about 4,000 BTC from the Liquid Network federation wallet on Sunday and returned 3,400 BTC to the wallet on Monday. The return transaction, confirmed at 16:09 UTC on September 7, sent exactly 3,400 BTC to the labeled Liquid peg script address and left 598.5 BTC at the white-hat address as an implied bounty fee worth about $48 million. The parties negotiated through Bitcoin block messages, including OP_RETURN notes, encrypted payloads, and PGP signatures tied to Blockstream's published security key. Blockstream-linked messages said bridge nodes were patched and safe to return the funds, while the white hats kept 15% of the withdrawn pile and later posted a sad face emoji after further encrypted exchanges. Liquid's last official statement said the withdrawal used the SideSwap peg-out path, the PAK was not compromised, other issued assets were unaffected, and the sidechain was paused.

3. Hunter Biden Launches LAPTOP Meme Coin on Base
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/hunter-biden-unleashes-laptop-meme-coin-in-direct-shot-at-trump
Published: 2026-09-07 01:43 PM CT
Summary: Hunter Biden plans to launch a 1 billion token LAPTOP meme coin on Base on Sept. 9. The project reserves 20% of supply for airdrops, including wallets that lost money trading the TRUMP meme coin. Another 30% of supply is tied to about 30 real-world events, including Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high, with tokens burned if events occur or donated to charity if they do not. Founders, including Biden, hold 30% of supply under a six-month initial lock and a longer unlocking schedule that can stretch to 36 months. At least 14 unofficial LAPTOP tokens appeared across several chains around the announcement, and Biden's confirmation post did not include a contract address.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.5.6 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3
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September 08, 2026, 03:00:16 AM



BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-07 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-07 09:18 PM CT

3. Hunter Biden Launches

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.5.6 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3

  -It may be that he is walking with bad influences
 
  -Maybe he's making some money on the outside and you don't know...?

Outlook: Traders will watch whether the Liquid Network pause spreads to exchange confidence in L-BTC. The next XR

NGL, the project is starting to not be fun anymore and just thinking of killing it off.

 That image of Buddy's bar that he made, has an opposite view of the view I have,
I see Buddy's bar from the outside in, there is that table and the guys talking, but the one sitting on the floor, in my view, he stands at the counter and a TV behind him, it's Buddy's order book. As my vision is from the outside in, in the background besides the bathroom door, there is another door of a room at the back, it must be for games, my vision has not yet entered there, but in the view of your image he is in the place of the door and the outside seen through the glass was very cool.

 So over time, it changed to the 'TT' character, it became a very characteristic text, it matched well with the format, and time passed, I thought it are good about three news in the post, it is better than ten. An overview of the Bitcoin market trend by post is also interesting.

 So, you were perfecting and spending time and at the same time building a story, it gets tiring and you will always have a problem to solve, it may not be fun, but it's not a reason to give up. I see that the people who are always around here, are enjoying it, sometimes criticizing, but constructive criticism is good, yes, good entertainment and always has one repercussion or another and I particularly like it for being constructive. So if he is welcome, there is no reason to give up.

 I don't know if you've already shown the CoinMarketCap list and said not to mention all of them except Bitcoin?, and when the subject is related to Bitcoin and another, such as Atomics Swap for XMR... wait for your approval...? or something like...

 there will always be adjustments and news that when it's working well, you'll be fine, but sometimes some interspersed with some problems..., hmm but I understand that it would be good to stabilize and run on automatic forever... difficult, but that would be the goal to be achieved.




 so Phil, has some interesting storage methods, but I worry about the storage location, what if I no longer have access to the location? What if I forget where I stored it?...~


I recommend never divulging the methods you decide on unless it is a diversionary tactic, especially on a open forum.

so, when threw/burried hundreds and hundrids of bits electronic parts, different types of ferrous and non ferrous metals and all kinds of wires and junk bits all over my properties, yards and stompingrounds i shouldnt have admitted that?

oooops
Smiley Cheesy Smiley Cheesy




 I'm anxious, and I've been worried that I haven't written to him yet, even though it's uncertain I'm going to write.... but time has passed...... but I'm going to write........ I apologize for not having done it yet... even if after writing he doesn't even respond.... I apologize for not having done it yet, I was supposed to do it yesterday... but I ended up doing other things..., sorry to write this, but it keeps hammering my head and I feel obligation on my part that I haven't done yet, but I will do it..

He seems to be a good guy, I think he may not believe me, and or other things..., that is, I suffer in anticipation>
 
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September 08, 2026, 03:04:10 AM


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September 08, 2026, 04:03:26 AM

I think the "white hat" hacker may be settling a small cut for themselves for doing the work I'm discovering this bug, but most of the money is back.

https://mempool.space/tx/3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa

They returned the full amount

Address: bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte
↩️ 3,998.49929211 BTC returned to the same address; 1,000 sat left it (dust to the federation address)
🟪 0.00001000 BTC → bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr (Liquid Federation)



https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2096946852138537198?s=46&t=EYlgQnpcCaCtcz2k1MwkNg

Edit:
Oh wait it’s not full amount 😅 Embarrassed

Ya, they definitely kept 15% for themselves. I think that is somewhat typical for this sort of thing. Not a bad payday for me white hat if he is legally allowed to keep it. Nearly $50 million for running an AI agent with the right set of prompts (I’m sure it had to be more difficult than that).
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September 08, 2026, 04:04:10 AM


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September 08, 2026, 04:18:19 AM

[edited out]
Sorry for your loss.
In 2 weeks I go to my urologist to address my rising PSA scores.

My family record with prostate cancer is poor.
Granddad got it at 67 died at 76       he was a good patient and took care of himself
Great Uncle got it  73 died at 74       played ostrich never checked it
Great Uncle  got it at 81 died at 83   a real health guy food work out etc.

I have done a biopsy 1 time I was clean in 2024.  Here is hoping I check out after reaching my all-time high PSA number  (3.99 not bad, but with family history I have fears)

My understanding is that historically and perhaps in the past 20-30 years, there has been a lot of over diagnosis and over treatment when it comes to concerns about prostrate cancer.

##Maybe, the end of baby-bull patterns?

There is no such thing as a "baby bull pattern."  #justsaying

I am having some difficulties understanding how comparing bitcoin to the S&P 500 over a 1.5 year-ish period has any kind of meaning in terms of long term bitcoin fundamentals as compared with merely trying to guess which way the price might go with an attempt to try to place higher odds for one price direction as compared with another price direction, at least in the short-term.
Fair point on the long term timeline JJG. Short term charts are just dynamic snapshots for fun and observation, not a replacement for 4-10 year stacking. Hodling and accumulating is still the ultimate plan.
I don't have any difficulties understanding...  People who sold the Bitcoin top then bought the S&P 500 are up substantially over the people who ignored the 4-year cycle and decided to hold through a >50% drawdown.  The denial of this fact by the people who argued against selling the top is the only thing that puzzles me.  

Of course you are puzzled, and that is likely part of the reason that you are still fucking around trying to trade rather than buying and holding when you could have had a BIG ASS bitcoin stack size if you had not been fucking around for each of the past 4-ish cycles that you have been in bitcoin.

Yeah, sure maybe this particular cycle you may have had gotten lucky or partially lucky, yet even that is not clear, not that anyone needs to know the details of your stack size and/or the various opportunity cost you fucked up based on your ongoing inabilities to think beyond the short term and/or your seeming inabilities to think in terms of long term investing rather than trading.

Over the years, you end up leaving all kinds of money on the table while you are counting the times that you one on the your supposed trade when you have likely missed out on multiples and magnitudes of compounding portfolio valuations based on your not always being in when you should be and trying to spin your actions as if you were doing something less than dumb.

Especially in a BTC/USD speculation thread.  There really should be a BTC stacking thread for the folks who want to stay in up-only mode at the top of the 4-year cycle. 

Yes, of course, you cannot even appreciate the value of buy and hold and ongoingly invest into bitcoin until you reached such status of enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.  You don't seem  to understand the concept, yet you seem to want to ongoingly lecture guys about some kind of supposed value in trying to play cycle swings, as if any mere mortal is capable of determining when the price is going to go up, down or sideways, even though maybe retrospectively it might have had appeared obvious, it tends to not be obvious when we are in the midst of ups, down or sideways periods.

I guess the only problem with that is the people who rage against those who sold the top sell part of their stack annually and never replace it, so not even a stacking thread would be appropriate for whatever it is they think they're doing.

If you have reached overaccumulation status that means that you have enough or more than enough bitcoin.  Do you need another example?

Let's say that you had not been such a retard in your first 6-ish years of being in bitcoin and you had mostly concentrated on accumulating bitcoin rather than fucking around trying to trade it.

So perhaps between June 2011 and May 2013, you did not have much of a budget, and so you ended up investing $100 per month, and so you ended up investing $2,400 and you accumulated 120 BTC ($20 per coin).

Then let's say between June 2013 and May 2017, your budget was a bit better and you were able to invest $100 per week, which would have had been $5,200 per year and $20,800 after 4 years.  After 4 years, you would have had accumulated 41.6 BTC.

So then if we consider the whole matter of ongoingly and persistently accumulating bitcoin for about 6-ish years between June 2011 and May 2017, you could have had invested right around $23,200 in total and had accumulated right around 161.6 bitcoin.. which surely could have had put you at something near overaccumulation status at some point later down the road, even if you had stopped accumulating more bitcoin  

A large number of guys right now would be quite well off with 161.6 BTC, since it would have a 200-WMA value of nearly $10.5 million and a spot price value of more than $12.7 million.

You could even have around a sustainable monthly withdrawal amount that would be close to 1 bitcoin per month.

You seem to not understand and/or value the power of ongoing accumulation of bitcoin to reach a large enough or a greater than needed accumulation amount.

Let's see if i sold1 btc at 36k base for 126k
My profit would be 90k if usa tax payer. I could owe 30k which I pay.

So 126k-30k is 96k
I park it at 4% and 11 months later I have almost 100k

With maybe 1 k tax owed on the 4k interest. I compare to the guy that held the 1 btc
And he has 80k and he has 44k profit to be taxed if he cashs.

So  og was correct to sell it at 126k
Yea og

Instead of sucking the dick of a dumbass short term trader, you need to zoom out a wee bit in order to understand the value and the power of accumulating and/or holding bitcoin over more than one whole cycle prior to starting to "cash out."  

Maybe try doing some longer term math that might involve a couple of cycles rather than trying to fuck around within parameters of current cycles, and yeah, OgNasty seems to remain uncertain if the low for this cycle is "in," yet, which adds up to a lot of time both being out when he should be in and also a lot of time of failing/refusing to continue to accumulate bitcoin, when he seems to already ongoingly admit that he does not have enough or more than enough bitcoin.

[edited out]
My sale was at $117K. I did not manage to sell any in the 120s I don’t think.

Your scenario also doesn’t count that a single filer investor can get $49,450 in tax free long term capital gains per year. That makes a significant difference. Then there’s the S&P performance since then, or the 6% interest currently available on cash, or if you use that income to buy the bottom…

Hardly even meaningful if you could have had a bitcoin portfolio size of 161.4 BTC or greater and you are talking about selling 1-2 bitcoin for potential capital gain tax exemptions of $49,450-ish?

I might misunderstand your post, yet from my perspective, I consider bitcoin to be the opposite of money printing, so I have some difficulties understanding how bitcoin embraces money printing rather than being a check upon other systems that tolerate a whole hell-of-a-lot of money printing, while bitcoin embraces a fixed supply that is so strict that it does not even have any kind of tail emission.
The block reward drives the security of Bitcoin through money printing. The strict control on emission is part of how it uses it during its adoption phase. You're correct that it eventually goes away but that's not directly relevant to my statement.

We can agree to disagree, especially since even if bitcoin is continuing to be issued and we know the rate of issuance, there is no manipulation of bitcoin's issuance schedule which is a pretty damned strict kind of issuance schedule that is unlike any other asset class (or money) currently in existence.
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September 08, 2026, 05:50:10 AM
Merited by goldkingcoiner (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

~snip

My understanding is that historically and perhaps in the past 20-30 years, there has been a lot of over diagnosis and over treatment when it comes to concerns about prostrate cancer.

~snip

 Not only prostate but most cancers are over-diagnosed/treated.  Non-cancerous conditions look identical to cancer on an MRI scan and nearly everyone has them.  Even when they are cancerous, many people would die of old age if left alone but once you start poking and prodding the site, you can turn a completely harmless, issue into a life-altering medical problem.  Also, treating a 70+ year old with a microscopic "tumor" the same as a 35 year old is moronic but this is where we are.
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September 08, 2026, 05:57:42 AM


I recommend never divulging the methods you decide on unless it is a diversionary tactic, especially on a open forum.
Cool advise, but there is real nothing anyone can do about it unless they are planning on beating the information of their locations out of him.
I think the "white hat" hacker may be settling a small cut for themselves for doing the work I'm discovering this bug, but most of the money is back.

https://mempool.space/tx/3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa

They returned the full amount

Address: bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte
↩️ 3,998.49929211 BTC returned to the same address; 1,000 sat left it (dust to the federation address)
🟪 0.00001000 BTC → bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr (Liquid Federation)



https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2096946852138537198?s=46&t=EYlgQnpcCaCtcz2k1MwkNg

Edit:
Oh wait it’s not full amount 😅 Embarrassed

Ya, they definitely kept 15% for themselves. I think that is somewhat typical for this sort of thing. Not a bad payday for me white hat if he is legally allowed to keep it. Nearly $50 million for running an AI agent with the right set of prompts (I’m sure it had to be more difficult than that).
Even ethical hackers get paid for their work, and $48 million sounds like a fair trade, imagine if they had keep all 4000 BTC and not returned any of it.
They are not legally allowed to keep it, getting it back from them is a different story though.
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September 08, 2026, 06:01:42 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1)

I looked into this but not being in the US, this didn't apply to me.  There was no such thing as like-for-like here for bitcoin as it was always treated as a commodity by the gov't so swapping it for another was a barter transaction that created a taxable event.  I have since found out that the 1031-form was never a viable option for the shitcoin swaps - Trump or no Trump.  This scam reminded me of the "Buy-Low, Donate-High" tax shelter scheme a couple hundred thousand Canadians tried before Bitcoin was a thing.  Guys at work were telling me how you could get thousands of dollars of income tax back by buying and donating art, time-shares. hotel room blocks etc and donating them to charity at a much higher valuation than you paid for them.  Whether these assets even existed to being with was questionable and I didn't bite - getting something for nothing from the gov't as a citizen didn't seems possible... I only ever knew them as takers.

You can lie to the taxman and get away with it for a long time, possibly forever. But if the eye of Sauron turns on you, you'd better make sure you have the right connections.
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September 08, 2026, 06:04:10 AM


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September 08, 2026, 06:09:53 AM

I recommend never divulging the methods you decide on unless it is a diversionary tactic, especially on a open forum.

so, when threw/burried hundreds and hundrids of bits electronic parts, different types of ferrous and non ferrous metals and all kinds of wires and junk bits all over my properties, yards and stompingrounds i shouldnt have admitted that?

oooops

Turning your backyard into a metal detector trap is lowkey high level OPSEC.  Grin
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September 08, 2026, 06:51:23 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I do it the traditional way. 24-word seed, specially encoded on paper, laminated and placed in 3 different physical locations.

Using steel or other fire-proof material is nice, but with 3 different physical locations, the probability that all 3 get destroyed is practically zero.

Not everyone has 5 or 6 houses to spread this out.



I recommend never divulging the methods you decide on unless it is a diversionary tactic, especially on a open forum.

I don't even know which method to use... let alone say what I'm using.

Now, I'm of the opinion that the more complex it is, the more vulnerable it becomes...
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