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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 39 (38.2%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 23 (22.5%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 25 (24.5%)
No - other (explain below) - 15 (14.7%)
Total Voters: 102

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27049875 times)
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Today at 02:06:01 AM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-17 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-17 09:05 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways, with the 24-hour change of +0.42% signaling a flat market despite the Fear & Greed Index shifting into Greed at 56. The dominant narrative remains the Liquid Network exploit, where hackers retain 598.50 BTC, creating a structural overhang that contrasts with the broader market's resilience. Price sits below the 30-day moving average, suggesting the recent +10.73% monthly gain is consolidating rather than accelerating.

Outlook: Traders should monitor whether the Fed's rate hike to 4% triggers a sustained risk-off shift in traditional equities that bleeds into crypto liquidity. The resolution of the Liquid Network peg-out freeze is a critical structural event, as the return of the remaining 598.50 BTC or a confirmed loss would directly impact confidence in BTC-backed sidechains.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $76,658.00, up 0.42% over 24 hours and down 0.6% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -1 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers currently hold the upper hand, as the price sits comfortably above the $75,500 support level while testing the ceiling of the recent range. The Fear & Greed index at 56 suggests cautious optimism rather than euphoria, which often precedes a consolidation phase rather than an immediate breakout. A sustained close above $78,000 would signal that buyers have absorbed the supply at resistance, potentially opening the path toward $79,500. Conversely, a failure to hold $75,500 would indicate that the current bid is insufficient, likely triggering a retest of the $74,000 downside target.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $75,500 (49%): The market maintains its current footing if daily closes remain above $75,500 through Friday. This scenario assumes that the Fear & Greed index stays in the neutral-to-greed zone, preventing a sharp sentiment shift. If the price breaks below $75,500 on a daily close within five trading days, this thesis is invalidated.
- Breakout Toward $79,500 (33%): Buyers must reclaim and hold $78,000 as support to validate this move. A daily close above $78,000 through Friday would confirm that resistance has flipped to support, targeting $79,500. This scenario fails if the price rejects $78,000 and closes below $75,500 within five trading days.
- Downside Re-test of $74,000 (18%): Sellers gain control if the price loses the $75,500 floor. A daily close below $75,500 through Friday would confirm weakness, likely driving the price toward $74,000. This scenario is invalidated if the price recovers and closes above $78,000 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Fed Rate Hike: The Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates to 4% marks a tightening cycle that tests Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets, even as crypto showed initial resilience.
- Sidechain Security Concerns: The ongoing Liquid Network exploit, combined with recent issues on Symbiosis and Nomic, is driving a broader reassessment of the security risks associated with BTC-bridged assets and sidechains.

TOP STORIES

1. Liquid Network Peg-Outs Frozen as Hackers Retain 598.50 BTC
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/l-btc-peg-out-still-shut-down-as-blockstream-refuses-hacker-demand
Published: 2026-09-17 03:30 PM CT
Summary: Blockstream has kept L-BTC peg-outs disabled for 11 days following a Sept. 6 exploit that drained nearly 4,000 BTC from the Liquid Network. Although hackers returned 3,400 BTC, they still hold 598.50 BTC valued at over $45 million. Blockstream founder Adam Back stated that the 1:1 peg will be covered and urged holders not to sell L-BTC at a discount. The protocol currently shows 4,234.76 L-BTC in circulation against only 3,632.23 BTC in reserves. This incident, along with recent exploits on Symbiosis and Nomic, has raised concerns about the security of BTC-backed projects and bridges.

2. Fed hikes rates to 4%, Bitcoin holds steady while Zcash surges
URL: https://decrypt.co/378506/bitcoin-bounces-wall-street-fed-next-move
Published: 2026-09-17 12:01 PM CT
Summary: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking its first hike since July 2023. Bitcoin traded near $76,300 following the announcement, remaining largely flat as the broader crypto market held above $2.6 trillion. Zcash surged as much as 23% to approximately $1,425 after Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang disclosed his firm's stake in the token. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 50, indicating neutral sentiment, a significant decline from the extreme greed readings recorded three weeks prior. While traditional equities fell on the rate decision, crypto assets showed resilience, with Zcash gaining roughly 160% over the past month compared to Bitcoin's 18.2% rise.

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2. Fed hikes rates to 4%, Bitcoin holds steady while Zcash surges
URL: https://decrypt.co/378506/bitcoin-bounces-wall-street-fed-next-move
Published: 2026-09-17 12:01 PM CT
Summary: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking its first hike since July 2023. Bitcoin traded near $76,300 following the announcement, remaining largely flat as the broader crypto market held above $2.6 trillion. Zcash surged as much as 23% to approximately $1,425 after Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang disclosed his firm's stake in the token. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 50, indicating neutral sentiment, a significant decline from the extreme greed readings recorded three weeks prior. While traditional equities fell on the rate decision, crypto assets showed resilience, with Zcash gaining roughly 160% over the past month compared to Bitcoin's 18.2% rise.
[/tt]
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Fuck this zcrap shit already, its a wholly owned P&D Shitcoin and has no place here.
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Today at 03:59:59 AM

Nice reverse bart on the daily. Looks like Bitcoin is going to pick up quite nicely. What say you OGnasty? Still feelin bearish?
What I think is that pump is till 80k and price will now revert to its previous position i.e. under 65k.
#JustMyFewSatoshi
These ideas that the price has to dip are pretty retarded.

Sure they could happen, yet they become quite expensive when guys rely upon such dumps before pumps or even expect that some kind of "reasonable pullback" is required.
It may looks absurd or retard when someone talk about the DIP but its something we can't ignore.

Price is slowly going down and that is giving strength to my prediction that I made on Aug, 28 2026.

It still seems retarded to me, and I am standing by my earlier assertion, whether you end up being correct or not remains almost irrelevant...

And, of course, even if there were a bet in there, you may well continue to NOT be a betting man.

hahahahaha
  Tongue Tongue

I’ve been looking at the current BTC/USD structure using three indicators: the 50/200 EMA structure, RSI momentum and volume confirmation.
A few things I’m currently watching:

• **Trend:** price action relative to the 50 EMA and 200 EMA.
• **Momentum:** RSI behavior and possible divergence between price and momentum.
• **Confirmation:** whether major price movements are supported by increased volume.
I’ve also put together a more detailed breakdown of the indicator setup and methodology here:

https://pdfcloud365.com/upload/dc/6xtfv/Detailed-BTC/USD-Indicator-Analysis.pdf
Interested to hear how others are reading the current structure and whether you’re watching the same levels or using different indicators.

I was not able to look at your link since it was incompatible with the Operating system that I am currently running.

I imagine your squigglies relate to the daily and not the weekly (when referring to the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA), so I will have to call you retarded too.. since it remains difficult for me to get excited about short term noise and guys who are potentially trading bitcoin rather than investing into it.

Even though you ONLY have three posts, you have been registered on this here forum for more than 7 years (since June 2019), and so if you had not been fucking around trading during that time and perhaps investing (accumulating bitcoin through buying and holding only), then perhaps if you had invested $100 per week, then you would have had invested right around $38.2k by now and you could have had accumulated right around 1.57 BTC, and so I am not sure how fucking around with trading BTC could have had beaten those kinds of persistent buying and/or holding of BTC results.

[edited out]
Almost like the daily news that people obsess over isn’t the main price driver. Like some invisible force molds the market in a certain direction every certain time frame. Someone should look into that and maybe give it a name so it is dead simple for everyone to sell the tops and accumulate through the bottoms.

As if you know what the fuck is going on.

You are quite humorous today.

hahahahaha

#nohomo

 Tongue Tongue

[edited out]
Yes, those of us who believe in the mysterious time driven force consider 2026 an accumulation year after 2025 was a sell year.  2027 will also be an accumulation year.  2028 will be for holding or final purchases in the cycle.  2029 I will be reminding everyone of what happened in 2013, 2017, 2021, & 2025 and hearing how "this time is different" once again while dodging insults for the following 18 months.  Personally, I am looking forward to rejoining team bull around Halloween as is my MO so hopefully the emotionally driven folks are a little nicer to the messenger when they like the message.

Just imagine if you had not been so retarded between June 2011 and early 2013 and perhaps even extending into 2018?

It would have had been amazing, and you would not have had needed to be fucking around trying to trade nonsense and to act like you know everything since you could have had easily had enough or more than enough bitcoin so that you would not have had to be fucking around with trying to trade - and perhaps with mediocre amounts too.

Do I need to go through the numbers again?

Probably not for you, but if anyone wants me to go through the numbers, I could lay out some relatively modest scenario to make the point that OgNasty remains a retard who wishes that he wasn't such.  Accordingly, he is largely trying to make up for his historical retardedness (without even having to go into some of his other sorted forum history) by ongoingly spouting out how much more that he knows as compared to all other forum members and perhaps everyone else in the world too. He surely is amazing, at least in his own mind.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Fuck this zcrap shit already, its a wholly owned P&D Shitcoin and has no place here.

Fixed in the next version

Code:
Editorial note: Bitcoin is the only asset named in this digest. Anything else that 
traded today is some shitcoin, and that is the whole rating.
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Today at 09:00:26 AM

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Today at 09:12:16 AM

Looks like sustained accumulation to me.
I don't know and have no imagination about how and how much all the derivatives influence the market.
But there was a time before those, and that's when i remember news had impact. With a few shakeouts in between, though, this time it's different.
...again  Wink

Yes, those of us who believe in the mysterious time driven force consider 2026 an accumulation year after 2025 was a sell year.  2027 will also be an accumulation year.  2028 will be for holding or final purchases in the cycle.  2029 I will be reminding everyone of what happened in 2013, 2017, 2021, & 2025 and hearing how "this time is different" once again while dodging insults for the following 18 months.  Personally, I am looking forward to rejoining team bull around Halloween as is my MO so hopefully the emotionally driven folks are a little nicer to the messenger when they like the message.

Let me be so bold and frame those insults as emotionally colored opinions. Actually, you decide how you receive and emotionally react to them.
It's ok to be supportive and friendly, which is my personal preference as well. On the other hand, you shouldn't care so much about wether people like your message (or the messenger). That's not what you are here for, or is it?
For people preferring to be not supportive and friendly, which we also happen to have in our little WO community, more of the opposite should work in everybodies favor. Even if some here don't feel liked, most times they just fail to deal with the pretty straightforward honesty, which is really colorfully characteristic to this thread, imho, and that's also one of the main reasons that i regularly hang out here.


[ Buddy-Blocker!!! ]

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After reading the buddyblock-post, i asked myself if there may be a future where Clawblaw would be able (and allowed) to take over the thread as the moderator, and how cool (or uncool) that would be.
Who knows... I definitely see a chance, but i think it will still be a long way to go.
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