Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

AI will never be able to replace a human. Medicine, skilled trades, and other jobs where AI has little to no influence.

AI is going to devastate the medical field. There are huge swathes of medical research out there and keeping up with it would be two full time jobs. Let alone all the studies and research which is never cross-referenced.

for reasons ive had a lot of imaging done. and since im also playing with local LLMs (7900XTX 24 GB video card w/ 128 GB system ram), ive fed them into my local llms and so far with the latest models (past 6-9 months say) with everything ive fed it^* its really really good at finding abnormalities.

*  "it" being various open weight vision models ive used.

What VL models are you getting the best results with, amusingly i just downloaded huihui-qwen3-vl-30b-a3b-thinking-abliterated-q4_k_m.gguf yesterday to use for eyes for one of my others.

oops sorry forgot about this

so now im playing around again. what i do when getting imaging is request the disc. then i export the images via whatever viewing software they have on disc. then import into the llm with a 1st year med student assistant role. i have a few different body area and CT/MRI/US studies to play with.

honestly i grab the latest of whatever i can run. the 30B Q4 stuff all runs on the 24 GB card so it goes decent. im playing now with the latest qwen 3.8 27B q4 and gemma 4 31B q4 models ill play a bit and get back to you. but they seem pretty close so far.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-24 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-09-24 09:05 AM CT

Bitcoin is consolidating near $84,142 after a sharp intraday dip to $83,500, driven by rising US real yields that increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Despite the 1.88% drop over the last 24 hours, the Fear & Greed Index climbed to 71 (Greed), signaling that institutional demand remains robust enough to absorb macro headwinds.

Outlook: Traders should monitor whether the $84,000 to $85,000 support zone holds against continued pressure from rising Treasury yields. The expansion of Raiffeisen Bank's Bitcoin services across Europe represents a structural shift in traditional finance adoption that may provide a counterbalance to macro-driven volatility.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $84,142.00, down 1.88% over 24 hours and up 10.2% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +30 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Buyers currently hold the structural advantage, as the price sits comfortably above the $78,500 support while testing the psychological weight of the $90,000 resistance. The tension between the strong weekly price action and the softer momentum composite suggests that while the trend remains intact, the urgency to chase higher prices has cooled. This divergence implies that the market is digesting recent gains rather than accelerating, leaving control with those willing to defend the lower boundary. A decisive break below $78,500 would shift control to sellers, whereas a sustained close above $90,000 would confirm buyer dominance and open the path toward $95,500.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $78,500 (32%): triggers: Price maintains a daily close above $78,500 while failing to break $90,000 within five trading days. Invalidation: A daily close below $78,500 or above $90,000 within five trading days.
- Breakout Toward $95,500 (46%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $90,000 on a daily close within five trading days, targeting $95,500. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain levels above $90,000 or closes below $78,500 within five trading days.
- Downside Re-test of $73,000 (22%): triggers: Sellers force a daily close below $78,500 within five trading days, driving price toward $73,000. Invalidation: Price recovers to close above $78,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Macro Yield Pressure: Rising US 10-year Treasury yields to 5.11% increased the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, directly triggering the intraday sell-off to $83,500.

TOP STORIES

1. Surging US real yields push Bitcoin below $84,000
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/why-surging-us-real-yields-are-quietly-forcing-bitcoin-under-84000
Published: 2026-09-24 03:59 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $83,500 on September 23 as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.11%. The decline was primarily driven by a jump in real yields from 2.63% to 2.76%, which increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This macro shift coincided with a stronger-than-expected S&P Global composite PMI reading of 58.4, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Glassnode data identifies the $84,000 to $85,000 range as critical support, with the $77,000 True Market Mean serving as the next major downside reference if that zone fails. Despite the price drop, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.3 billion in inflows over the preceding five days, indicating continued institutional demand.

2. Raiffeisen Bank International to Roll Out Bitcoin Services Across Europe in Expanded Bitpanda Deal
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/raiffeisen-to-roll-out-bitcoin-trading
Published: 2026-09-23
Summary: Raiffeisen Bank International announced a partnership with brokerage Bitpanda to offer Bitcoin trading to its 18 million customers across Europe. The Austrian banking group cited growing customer demand for crypto assets as the primary driver for expanding the service beyond its initial Austrian operations. This move follows a 2024 pilot where Raiffeisen Landesbank Niedersterreich-Wien became the first traditional EU bank to integrate crypto trading directly into its banking environment using Bitpanda's technology. The new agreement standardizes the approach across the group's 11 subsidiary banks in Central and Eastern Europe, replacing separate market-by-market integrations. Raiffeisen joins a broader trend of traditional financial institutions, including BBVA, Santander, and Morgan Stanley, launching retail crypto trading and custody services over the past 18 months.

3. Alpen Labs AI Reproduces Liquid Sidechain Exploit in One Hour
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/alpen-says-ai-diagnosed-liquids-320-million-exploit-in-an-hour-could-a-payout-limit-have-stopped-it
Published: 2026-09-24 07:20 AM CT
Summary: Alpen Labs CEO Simanta Gautam stated that AI agents reproduced the cryptographic flaw behind the $320 million Bitcoin exploit on the Liquid sidechain in approximately one hour. The incident occurred on September 6, 2026, when the Liquid federation released roughly 3,996 BTC after accepting L-BTC tokens that lacked corresponding Bitcoin backing. SideSwap reported that the attacker sent 4,000 L-BTC to its peg-out service, and the federation signed the withdrawal request despite the invalid state because the service lacked size or velocity limits. The exploit stemmed from a code change in Elements software that allowed cache collisions to bypass proof verification, a defect Alpen Labs identified through local replay. While the AI reproduction was rapid, it occurred after the funds had already left, meaning it did not prevent the loss but confirmed the technical mechanism.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | qwen3.8-flash-next

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

As I likely had stated in earlier times, my forum bets tend to be for funzies and for largely insignificant amounts.

In other words, I do not try to get profits off of (or gains from) my forum bets, but instead bet an amount that I am willing to lose without being financially or emotionally worried about it.  So rather than being concerned about the financial size of the bet, I there might be some stress on the pride that comes from losing any bet that I had entered into..

Losing pride (in the context of having fun with a bet) is not really the same as feeling financial pressure in regards to the bet amount, and surely historically on the forum there have been guys who have proposed high amounts to bet against me, and I consider those kinds of guys to be mostly unserious, even if they are trying to propose BIG BALLER betting terms..

Self control is very important in gambling because that saves you from side effects of gambling.

If you are betting and only putting a small money then you can enjoy the process otherwise betting will be stressful.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

A bloodbath in global assets of all kind today. Not great news to see how bad things are getting economically around the world. At least it seems like this is going to lead to an end of the Iran and possibly Ukraine wars. If that happened and we got those $5,000 checks, it would be off to the races again.

I would love for either of these to be true, but I don't think they will be.

As to the wars, they're not fighting the wars, they're telling us they're fighting. Not even what either side is saying, since we're getting at least two narratives for each of the major fronts that we're in right now.  

The United States is strangling energy production in the entire Eastern Hemisphere.  Ukrainian drones are bombing refineries in Russia, while the Strait of Hormuz is all but shut down.  Remember the gas pipeline? Who was it to blew that up again?

It won't be over till it's over, but it could get a lot worse from here.

As to those $5,000 checks, I would be gobsmacked if the right kept control of both houses.

No way.

Everyone on the left is going to vote against it. Probably more than half of Gen Z is going to vote against it.  I would imagine the Hispanic vote for the right is decimated.  And a lot of sensible people on the right feel betrayed by this administration. And they'll just stay home.  

Enough people will feel like a deadlock is better than the situation we're in now. There's no way those $5,000 checks are coming. (at least not via both houses being kept. I suppose they could change the rules as usual.)

I would love to be wrong and not for the $5,000 either. 😁

It's all about the energy and the money.  And it's an interesting gambit, honestly.  I'm not sure if this is the first war being waged with the Secretary of the Treasury basically being in control of an entire portion of it.  You could say he's actually the general of this one.

There is real fighting going on. Lots of people are dying. It is terrible and should be stopped immediately.

I could not agree more. An entire generation of Ukrainian males have been destroyed. The children born in Ukraine will be the children of Russian men.

And there are other fronts in this war.

I think the economic situation is going to get so bad globally that ending the wars is not a choice, but a necessity for everyone involved. In that scenario, it would be political suicide for democrats to vote against $5,000 stimulus checks. We’ll see what happens, but we’re 25 years into this bad news is good news economy due to the expectation of government intervention in markets and the bad news is piling up fast…

Sure. I can see this happening. But that was not the deal trump made. Still it could be an interesting move for him to prompt that with a Democrat Congress.

The economic disaster is a key part of the war. This is how new monetary systems are born.

I can't imagine those children growing up to hear the stories that their fathers are the enemies of their nation, they will feel like abomination, their stomachs will turn and may the lord help them, this is why leaders needs to prevent war with everything possible, even if you have the biggest nukes it doesn't change the fact that many people will die, if for any reasons I become a leader of a country I would only agree to go to war if I have a safe haven for all my country people which is impossible, it's why leaders must prevent war from breaking out, shame on Putin and shame on the Ukrainian leaders.

Read some History Ronald Reagan caused this.

When the Ukraine was split off USSR in 1987 Regan had pretty much crushed Russia economically.

But He did not allow the Ukraine to keep nukes and or join Nato.

This was done to sell weapons in a future war.  and here we are the Ukraine and Russia victims of a man dead for 30 plus years.

as an aside

 Reagan's war on drugs created  huge law enforcement power in the USA made drug lords rich much like the probibition laws made AL CAPONE  rich.


as bad as Reagan was Jimmy Carter was worse. But that is another story.

 I don't believe Reagan had anything to do with the nuclear disarmament.   Clinton was president by then and regardless of my thoughts about him, the nuke decision was a no-brainer.  Ukraine didn't have the launch codes, the operational command structure or the funds required to maintain the nuclear weapons program.  I think you guys paid for the dismantling of those nukes... or most of the cost anyway.  As you can imagine, control of these weapons was purposely kept at the Kremlin since rogue states with that kind of weaponry aren't desirable.  Also, it was under Clinton that NATO expansion eastward began.  Reagan still championed a European NATO after the Berlin wall fell but I don't think he ever spoke about expansion into former Soviet bloc countries... it was likely too soon for that kind of talk even if the thought entered his mind.

[vapourminer]

Heretofore silent, the undersigned hereby places on record that the current quintet of automated dispatches exhausts all prior forbearance.

invisible ink/ascii?

[Lucius]

~snip~
2. Raiffeisen Bank International to Roll Out Bitcoin Services Across Europe in Expanded Bitpanda Deal
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/raiffeisen-to-roll-out-bitcoin-trading
Published: 2026-09-23
Summary: Raiffeisen Bank International announced a partnership with brokerage Bitpanda to offer Bitcoin trading to its 18 million customers across Europe. The Austrian banking group cited growing customer demand for crypto assets as the primary driver for expanding the service beyond its initial Austrian operations. This move follows a 2024 pilot where Raiffeisen Landesbank Niedersterreich-Wien became the first traditional EU bank to integrate crypto trading directly into its banking environment using Bitpanda's technology. The new agreement standardizes the approach across the group's 11 subsidiary banks in Central and Eastern Europe, replacing separate market-by-market integrations. Raiffeisen joins a broader trend of traditional financial institutions, including BBVA, Santander, and Morgan Stanley, launching retail crypto trading and custody services over the past 18 months.

Imagine a situation when a bank invites you to personally verify your info, and they also ask you questions about whether you have any links with various organizations (including terrorist ones), and the same bank continues to operate in Russia, which is a de facto terrorist country. Neutrality apparently serves some people very well these days.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

~snip~
2. Raiffeisen Bank International to Roll Out Bitcoin Services Across Europe in Expanded Bitpanda Deal
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/raiffeisen-to-roll-out-bitcoin-trading
Published: 2026-09-23
Summary: Raiffeisen Bank International announced a partnership with brokerage Bitpanda to offer Bitcoin trading to its 18 million customers across Europe. The Austrian banking group cited growing customer demand for crypto assets as the primary driver for expanding the service beyond its initial Austrian operations. This move follows a 2024 pilot where Raiffeisen Landesbank Niedersterreich-Wien became the first traditional EU bank to integrate crypto trading directly into its banking environment using Bitpanda's technology. The new agreement standardizes the approach across the group's 11 subsidiary banks in Central and Eastern Europe, replacing separate market-by-market integrations. Raiffeisen joins a broader trend of traditional financial institutions, including BBVA, Santander, and Morgan Stanley, launching retail crypto trading and custody services over the past 18 months.

Imagine a situation when a bank invites you to personally verify your info, and they also ask you questions about whether you have any links with various organizations (including terrorist ones), and the same bank continues to operate in Russia, which is a de facto terrorist country. Neutrality apparently serves some people very well these days.

Neutrality in a militaristic context.
Economically, it's different. Said Bank is backed by a political party, which happens to run the ministry of finance since 2008, in favor of corporate businesses.
(EDIT: ...and is also responsible for one the highest inflation rates since 2022 in the EU)
Exactly the kind of people that originally made Satoshi invent Bitcoin.
It's not neutrality at fault, but it's double standards.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Thawson]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-24 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-09-24 09:05 AM CT

Bitcoin is consolidating near $84,142 after a sharp intraday dip to $83,500, driven by rising US real yields that increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Despite the 1.88% drop over the last 24 hours, the Fear & Greed Index climbed to 71 (Greed), signaling that institutional demand remains robust enough to absorb macro headwinds.

Outlook: Traders should monitor whether the $84,000 to $85,000 support zone holds against continued pressure from rising Treasury yields. The expansion of Raiffeisen Bank's Bitcoin services across Europe represents a structural shift in traditional finance adoption that may provide a counterbalance to macro-driven volatility.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $84,142.00, down 1.88% over 24 hours and up 10.2% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +30 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Buyers currently hold the structural advantage, as the price sits comfortably above the $78,500 support while testing the psychological weight of the $90,000 resistance. The tension between the strong weekly price action and the softer momentum composite suggests that while the trend remains intact, the urgency to chase higher prices has cooled. This divergence implies that the market is digesting recent gains rather than accelerating, leaving control with those willing to defend the lower boundary. A decisive break below $78,500 would shift control to sellers, whereas a sustained close above $90,000 would confirm buyer dominance and open the path toward $95,500.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $78,500 (32%): triggers: Price maintains a daily close above $78,500 while failing to break $90,000 within five trading days. Invalidation: A daily close below $78,500 or above $90,000 within five trading days.
- Breakout Toward $95,500 (46%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $90,000 on a daily close within five trading days, targeting $95,500. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain levels above $90,000 or closes below $78,500 within five trading days.
- Downside Re-test of $73,000 (22%): triggers: Sellers force a daily close below $78,500 within five trading days, driving price toward $73,000. Invalidation: Price recovers to close above $78,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Macro Yield Pressure: Rising US 10-year Treasury yields to 5.11% increased the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, directly triggering the intraday sell-off to $83,500.

TOP STORIES

1. Surging US real yields push Bitcoin below $84,000
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/why-surging-us-real-yields-are-quietly-forcing-bitcoin-under-84000
Published: 2026-09-24 03:59 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $83,500 on September 23 as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.11%. The decline was primarily driven by a jump in real yields from 2.63% to 2.76%, which increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This macro shift coincided with a stronger-than-expected S&P Global composite PMI reading of 58.4, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Glassnode data identifies the $84,000 to $85,000 range as critical support, with the $77,000 True Market Mean serving as the next major downside reference if that zone fails. Despite the price drop, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.3 billion in inflows over the preceding five days, indicating continued institutional demand.

2. Raiffeisen Bank International to Roll Out Bitcoin Services Across Europe in Expanded Bitpanda Deal
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/raiffeisen-to-roll-out-bitcoin-trading
Published: 2026-09-23
Summary: Raiffeisen Bank International announced a partnership with brokerage Bitpanda to offer Bitcoin trading to its 18 million customers across Europe. The Austrian banking group cited growing customer demand for crypto assets as the primary driver for expanding the service beyond its initial Austrian operations. This move follows a 2024 pilot where Raiffeisen Landesbank Niedersterreich-Wien became the first traditional EU bank to integrate crypto trading directly into its banking environment using Bitpanda's technology. The new agreement standardizes the approach across the group's 11 subsidiary banks in Central and Eastern Europe, replacing separate market-by-market integrations. Raiffeisen joins a broader trend of traditional financial institutions, including BBVA, Santander, and Morgan Stanley, launching retail crypto trading and custody services over the past 18 months.

3. Alpen Labs AI Reproduces Liquid Sidechain Exploit in One Hour
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/alpen-says-ai-diagnosed-liquids-320-million-exploit-in-an-hour-could-a-payout-limit-have-stopped-it
Published: 2026-09-24 07:20 AM CT
Summary: Alpen Labs CEO Simanta Gautam stated that AI agents reproduced the cryptographic flaw behind the $320 million Bitcoin exploit on the Liquid sidechain in approximately one hour. The incident occurred on September 6, 2026, when the Liquid federation released roughly 3,996 BTC after accepting L-BTC tokens that lacked corresponding Bitcoin backing. SideSwap reported that the attacker sent 4,000 L-BTC to its peg-out service, and the federation signed the withdrawal request despite the invalid state because the service lacked size or velocity limits. The exploit stemmed from a code change in Elements software that allowed cache collisions to bypass proof verification, a defect Alpen Labs identified through local replay. While the AI reproduction was rapid, it occurred after the funds had already left, meaning it did not prevent the loss but confirmed the technical mechanism.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | qwen3.8-flash-next

It's interesting that the agents found bug B during the reproduction of the original exploit. The patch for Bug A had introduced another cache-key issue, which resulted in the investigation stumbling upon a second failure in the same area. A good example of where a fix for a consensus bug can result in another subtle failure mode if all of the inputs that affect the verification aren't properly/correctly represented in the cache key.

Just goes to show the value of automated testing to account for all such edge cases.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

Hah, no wonder I didnt get it.

For reference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAyLorS4fXc

[NeuroticFish]

The expansion of Raiffeisen Bank's Bitcoin services across Europe represents a structural shift in traditional finance adoption that may provide a counterbalance to macro-driven volatility.

Keep in mind that the various national branches will start offering those services at unknown later time, depending on each country's legislative "fun" vs cryptocurrencies.
So the news is not as big as some would boast.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

It honestly is pretty impressive that Bitcoin rallied while service websites are being hacked, exchanges are closing up shop, Saylor was selling, the economy is faltering, wars are happening, and everyone was awaiting the final dip (October 5th if I’m not mistaken). Someone must have gotten ahead of the market and bought themselves a lot of BTC. Reminds me of Mike Noragrets selling the absolute top before we reached most people’s targets of $170K last year.