Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

After two months I am back from where I started, but it's amazing because now I am in big profit due to a good increase in the price of Bitcoin.

Lets wait few more weeks because now I am expecting its going to be have six figures if happen its going to be big achievement for my journey into Bitcoin community.

You come off as bound to reck ur lil selfie - especially if you believe that 2 months is any kind of a meaningful timeline to be buying and/or holding bitcoin.

I have no small investment, but still I am happy because I made the right decision at the right time.

Why the fuck would the amount matter?

You think that if you have some dumbass ideas related to bitcoin buying timelines, then those dumbass ideas are improved merely by increasing the amount?

Tell me a world in which what you are saying makes any sense?  In a gambling world?  You believe in gambling with your bitcoin.  Right?

Now I am going to be regular and surely going to increase my investment as well because I am comfortable about things around Bitcoin.

You are saying that you started with a 2 month timeline in mind, yet now that you feel that your 2-month timeline is working out, you are willing to commit for longer than 2 months?

Of course, that makes sense. Right?

After clearing education now its time to start new journey with if its going to be have good future in crypto specially Bitcoin its surely going to be amazing adventure because its looking promising to me from start.

So you wanted to sound smart by proclaiming that bitcoin happens to be a subcategory of a smarter category called "crypto"?

So, when you use the term "crypto" and then you include bitcoin as a subcomponent of such "crypto" category, it makes you feel smart?  like you have insight in regards to the broader happenings, not just boring grandpa bitcoin?  right?

After two months I am back from where I started, but it's amazing because now I am in big profit due to a good increase in the price of Bitcoin.

Lets wait few more weeks because now I am expecting its going to be have six figures if happen its going to be big achievement for my journey into Bitcoin community.

You come off as bound to reck ur lil selfie - especially if you believe that 2 months is any kind of a meaningful timeline to be buying and/or holding bitcoin.

I have no small investment, but still I am happy because I made the right decision at the right time. Now I am going to be regular and surely going to increase my investment as well because I am comfortable about things around Bitcoin.

After clearing education now its time to start new journey with if its going to be have good future in crypto specially Bitcoin its surely going to be amazing adventure because its looking promising to me from start.

Don’t worry about haters that will try to discourage you. Stack away friend on whatever timeline you want. Definitely don’t take advice from people who discourage stacking and sell the bottom of every four year cycle. Sounds like you’re on a good path. Keep going and good luck!

Of course.  Listen to OgNasty. He is smarter than a rock.  He could have been able to sell bitcoin every year no matter if bitcoin were at a top or a bottom, especially after 2018; however, even though OgNasty had been registered on the forum since June 2011, he only realized that bitcoin has "cycles" starting in 2018... so then starting from 2018, OgNasty has learned about how to trade bitcoin and to keep his lil selfie having fun staying poor by trading bitcoin rather than accumulating it.

So, of course, since OgNasty has a good 8 years in bitcoin, you would think that he would have had been able to accumulate a good amount of bitcoin, even if he ONLY got started in 2018, but still, his 2018 (supposed revelation) contributed to his believing that bitcoin is something that you trade with and/or gamble rather than accumulate, so even if he had a second chance to fix his pre-2018 erroneous ways, he still did not figure out bitcoin in or after 2018, and it really appears that he still has little to no clue about bitcoin, even though he proclaims that he currently (this time) has bitcoin figured out - but he does not really help the inspiration of confidence that he has much if any clue about why bitcoin is valuable beyond trading (gambling with) it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[bitmover]

 It will bring a renewed balance to my EBT card so I can stock up on Ramen and dented cans of peas.

So you are not waiting for Uptober actually you are waiting for EBTober to recreate this image.

 It hurts my soul to know there are people out there who would do such a thing to themselves for fun.  I'm closer each day to welcoming the AI apocalypse.

What is more bizarre is that they do it for likes and shares, not for fun

[d_eddie]

EDIT back on topic...in US, after 2029 , you might have to 'declare' your bitcoin.

What do you mean, declare? The IRS already ends up knowing how much you're holding, at least as long as you're either buying it, selling it, or getting it by any legitimate path.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

STRC just dipped hard in the after hours. Was that somebody getting out before Strategy sends the price down again, or was that Strategy selling early to raise a ton of money for a big Bitcoin buy this week? I’m curious to find out what just happened. Maybe we’ll learn tomorrow if it was Strategy selling.

[Biodom]

EDIT back on topic...in US, after 2029 , you might have to 'declare' your bitcoin.

What do you mean, declare? The IRS already ends up knowing how much you're holding, at least as long as you're either buying it, selling it, or getting it by any legitimate path.

I am confused as to what you refer to as 'ends up'?
Additionally, what exactly is "you", especially from 2009 to 2020 or so as far as hodling is concerned?

Declare as in "they" would ask you to declare all of your wallets, officially, like make a declaration: "I, such and such, possess these wallets", followed by a list.
Did they ask it already? I don't think so. So far, we are reporting only sells and the associated P&L.

This conversation stemmed from the prior post that pointed to an effort (in Netherlands) to tax bitcoiners based on unrealized profits.
To do this, someone would need to establish what you've got.
I simply point out that some US politicians also seem to ideologically lean in this direction, presumably.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-29 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-29 09:05 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways near $83,400, with the 24-hour move of +0.44% signaling a flat session despite a 7-day decline of 1.1%. The Fear & Greed Index remains in Greed at 71, suggesting sentiment is holding steady even as the price struggles to reclaim the $84,000 level. This consolidation reflects a market caught between institutional accumulation and macroeconomic anxiety.

Outlook: Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities, which are currently priced at 70.3% for October. The sustainability of ETF inflows will be critical, as recent positive net inflows have helped establish a price floor between $82,000 and $84,000.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $83,407.00, up 0.44% over 24 hours and down 1.1% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -2 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers currently hold the upper hand, keeping price action compressed between the $82,000 support and the $85,000 resistance. The Fear & Greed index at 71 suggests retail optimism is running ahead of the modest 30-day gain, creating a fragile equilibrium. A decisive break above $85,000 would signal that this optimism is backed by real demand, potentially opening the path toward $86,500. Conversely, a failure to hold $82,000 would expose the market to a retest of $80,500, as the current sentiment premium evaporates.

SCENARIOS

- Range-Bound Consolidation Above $82,000 (48%): triggers: Price closes above $82,000 and remains below $85,000 through Friday. Invalidation: A daily close below $82,000 or above $85,000 through Friday.
- Breakout Toward $86,500 (17%): triggers: A daily close above $85,000 through Friday, confirming momentum. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain levels above $85,000 through Friday.
- Support Failure and Drop to $80,500 (35%): triggers: A daily close below $82,000 through Friday, breaking the current floor. Invalidation: Price recovers and closes above $82,000 through Friday.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Macro Policy Uncertainty: Futures markets now price a 70.3% probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike, up from 55.4% a week ago, creating a headwind for risk assets.
- Institutional Accumulation: Strategy purchased 1,665 BTC for approximately $142.7 million between September 21 and 27, bringing its total holdings to a record 847,666 BTC.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin drops to $82,000 on US data, and inflation fear is blamed
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-drops-to-82000-on-us-data-and-inflation-fear-is-blamed
Published: 2026-09-29 04:10 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Tuesday, with a reclaim of the $84,000 support level depending on the path of yields and new demand. August job openings were little changed at 7.1 million, while hires and layoffs showed no sharp labor-market break. The Board's September consumer confidence index fell to 81.9, and 68.4% of respondents expected higher interest rates over the next year. The Sept. 28 US-traded spot Bitcoin ETF posted a positive net inflow of $31 million, smaller than each of the five preceding completed sessions. Bitcoin's route back above $84,000 turns on whether forthcoming inflation data and market prices resolve the tension between softer hiring and rising rate anxiety.

2. Alkanes Protocol Drives 61% of Bitcoin Transactions in 90-Day Window
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/alkanes-drove-61-of-bitcoin-transactions-for-90-days-subfrost-data-shows
Published: 2026-09-29 12:40 PM CT
Summary: SUBFROST data indicates that the Alkanes metaprotocol accounted for 61.1% of all Bitcoin transactions between June 23 and September 20. The protocol consumed 40.3% of block space by weight and 94.2% of OP_RETURN bytes during this period, generating 13.4% of transaction-fee revenue. Most activity stems from the DIESEL mint operation, with 99.7% of UNCOMMON GOODS Runes mints also being DIESEL mints. The user base is predominantly from the Asia Pacific region, with significant engagement from Chinese-speaking users and support for Chinese documentation. Alkanes operates as a layer on top of the Runes protocol using WebAssembly code in witness data, without altering Bitcoin consensus or running as a sidechain.

3. HANetf Launches World's First Euro-Hedged Bitcoin ETF
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/hanetf-debuts-bitcoin-euro-etf
Published: 2026-09-29 02:08 PM CT
Summary: HANetf launched the Arrow Bitcoin EUR Hedged ETF, described as the world's first euro-hedged bitcoin fund. The product aims to shield European investors from currency fluctuations between the euro and the US dollar, which typically affect returns on standard bitcoin ETFs. HSBC provides the currency hedging through forward contracts that are rolled monthly to offset dollar movements against the euro. This launch follows the significant success of US bitcoin ETFs, which now manage a combined $111.1 billion in assets since their 2024 approval. The fund allows European investors to gain exposure to bitcoin's price without simultaneously taking a position on the dollar's strength.

4. Bitcoin Holds $84K Range Amid Macro Pressure and ETF Inflows
URL: https://decrypt.co/379541/bitcoin-hovers-at-84k-as-treasury-yields-hold-near-multi-year-highs
Published: 2026-09-29 09:07 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $84,000 on Tuesday, maintaining a two-week range despite broader market volatility driven by rising Treasury yields and oil prices. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive days of inflows totaling approximately $3 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing $54.84 million in Monday's net inflows. Strategy purchased 1,665 BTC for about $142.7 million between September 21 and 27, bringing its total holdings to a record 847,666 BTC. Futures markets now price the odds of an October Federal Reserve rate hike at 70.3%, up from 55.4% a week ago, as traders await key U.S. economic data including core PCE and jobs reports. Analysts note that while macro headwinds cap upside momentum, institutional demand has helped Bitcoin hold its price floor between $82,000 and $84,000.

5. CryptoQuant warns of near-term Bitcoin correction as trader profits hit 21-month high
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-29-cryptoquant-says-bitcoin-correction-could-near-traders-unrealized-profit-21-month-high-417206
Published: 2026-09-29
Summary: CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno stated that Bitcoin remains in a bull market but faces a near-term correction risk as short-term traders' unrealized profit margin reached 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on September 22, marking the largest single-day profit-taking event of 2026. Spot demand contracted by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, while speculative futures demand growth slowed sharply from 164,000 BTC to 16,000 BTC between September 14 and September 29. Altcoin inflows to exchanges rose to 76,000 transactions over seven days, the highest level since October 2025, indicating broader selling pressure. Moreno identified the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as the first support level, with further support at the 200-day moving average near $71,000.

6. Bitcoin Eyes Record September Close Amid Volatile Month
URL: https://decrypt.co/379549/red-september-curse-over-bitcoin-best-returns-record
Published: 2026-09-29 11:50 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin is up 7.33% for September, narrowly surpassing the 7.29% return from 2024 to potentially mark the best September performance since 2013. The asset needs to close above approximately $83,600 to secure this record and extend its green September streak to four consecutive years. Mid-month volatility saw Bitcoin dip to around $75,000 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4% and spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a $450.4 million outflow. A subsequent rally pushed the price to $87,354, driven by $2.98 billion in ETF inflows and over $800 million in short liquidations, though the price has since retraced to roughly $83,000. Technical indicators remain bullish with a golden cross and an Average Directional Index of 42.3, but Bitcoin remains 4.4% below its year-to-date opening price.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | qwen3.8-flash-next

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[RD_BTC]

New York Fed President John Williams has said that another rate hike may be needed by the end of 2026, depending on the situation. I think the Fed rate and oil prices are the drivers of Bitcoin risk can affect volatility.

Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[RD_BTC]

STRC just dipped hard in the after hours. Was that somebody getting out before Strategy sends the price down again, or was that Strategy selling early to raise a ton of money for a big Bitcoin buy this week? I’m curious to find out what just happened. Maybe we’ll learn tomorrow if it was Strategy selling.

Since STRC prices have suddenly dropped, it is not yet certain that they sold STRC themselves.There are some possibilities for a sudden drop in prices. For example, someone sold a large amount of STRC. If they have a reason to sell STRC, they may have a plan to buy Bitcoin with that money. Or maybe it's just a general liquidity. I think it will be more or disclosure clear if we watch the disclosure tomorrow.

[nutildah]

Or maybe it's just a general liquidity.

a what now

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[RD_BTC]

Or maybe it's just a general liquidity.

a what now

Haha, It seems this is the only reason behind the withdrawal of liquidity. But then again, crypto loves to keep us To guess doesn't it? Am I right? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OutOfMemory]

Or maybe it's just a general liquidity.

a what now

Haha, It seems this is the only reason behind the withdrawal of liquidity. But then again, crypto loves to keep us To guess doesn't it? Am I right? 

No swear words in this here thread, please