Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Good morning wo.

I am half asleep and off to the hospital hoping my bro-in-law passes these tests today.

Ugh,I need more  coffee.

[Danish Ali]

Good morning wo.

I am half asleep and off to the hospital hoping my bro-in-law passes these tests today.

Ugh,I need more  coffee.

Hope everything turns out fine with medical checks today.

Fuel up on that coffee, hospital mornings are never easy.

[vapourminer]

I am half asleep and off to the hospital hoping my bro-in-law passes these tests today.

best wishes for your bro in law and safe travels

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

EDIT back on topic...in US, after 2029 , you might have to 'declare' your bitcoin.

What do you mean, declare? The IRS already ends up knowing how much you're holding, at least as long as you're either buying it, selling it, or getting it by any legitimate path.

I am confused as to what you refer to as 'ends up'?

Here's what I meant. They can track purchases and sales through the exchanges, which are only too eager to share our data. Mining revenue has to be declared, so they know about that too. Right, if you built your stack in the days of yore, that would be excluded - but it will resurface as soon as you try to sell any through the "normal" channels.

[Maslate]

Looks like we're bullish already..

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/30/bitcoin-rally-shows-signs-of-cooling-even-as-a-bull-score-gauge-nears-its-perfect-score

CryptoQuant, an onchain analysis firm, pegs its Bull Score at 90 out of 100. The score rolls onchain and market indicators into a single reading, and it jumped after bitcoin broke above its 365-day moving average last week, a break the firm treats as confirmation of a bull market.

90 over 100... hmm... ready for this?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitcoinPsycho]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Nice

[vapourminer]

EDIT back on topic...in US, after 2029 , you might have to 'declare' your bitcoin.

What do you mean, declare? The IRS already ends up knowing how much you're holding, at least as long as you're either buying it, selling it, or getting it by any legitimate path.

I am confused as to what you refer to as 'ends up'?

Here's what I meant. They can track purchases and sales through the exchanges, which are only too eager to share our data. Mining revenue has to be declared, so they know about that too. Right, if you built your stack in the days of yore, that would be excluded - but it will resurface as soon as you try to sell any through the "normal" channels.

yup

thats why i have signed addys that i used for payouts with the the various pools back then. so i can pull the cost basis of when they were mined.. as well as my logs, pics of my mining gear along with screenshots from pools with payout dates and amounts. i still control those addys.

but honestly when selling supra $80k+ (or better yet $120k+) a cost basis of $1000 vs $100 vs $10 doesnt matter that much for capitol gains calculations.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-30 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-09-30 09:04 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways, with a 24-hour change of +0.37% reflecting a market that is flat rather than trending. The Fear & Greed Index remains in Greed at 71, suggesting sentiment is holding steady despite the lack of directional movement. The dominant narrative today is the resilience of Bitcoin against a strengthening U.S. Dollar, which has hit a two-month high but shows only a modest negative correlation with crypto.

Outlook: Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, specifically PCE inflation and GDP figures, as these releases will likely determine whether Bitcoin tests the critical support levels identified by analysts. The market is currently waiting for a catalyst to break the recent range, with the 30-day moving average acting as a key structural floor.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $84,514.00, up 0.37% over 24 hours and down 0.0% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +3 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers currently hold the upper hand, keeping price action compressed between the $83,000 support and the $86,000 resistance. The Fear & Greed index at 71 suggests participants are comfortable, yet the flat seven-day performance indicates that this comfort has not translated into aggressive accumulation. A decisive break above $86,000 would signal that buyers are willing to absorb supply at higher prices, potentially opening the path toward $87,500. Conversely, a failure to hold $83,000 would likely trigger a retest of $81,500 as short-term holders look for exits. The market remains in a holding pattern, waiting for a catalyst to break this tight consolidation.

SCENARIOS

- Range-Bound Stability Above $83,000 (58%): triggers: Price closes above $83,000 and remains below $86,000 through Friday. Invalidation: A daily close below $83,000 or above $86,000 through Friday.
- Breakout Toward $87,500 (19%): triggers: Price sustains a close above $86,000 through Friday. Invalidation: Price fails to close above $86,000 through Friday.
- Support Failure Toward $81,500 (23%): triggers: Price closes below $83,000 through Friday. Invalidation: Price recovers to close above $83,000 through Friday.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Macro Correlation: The U.S. Dollar Index's rise to 101.69 has had limited impact on Bitcoin, with a 90-day correlation of -0.41 indicating that dollar strength explains only about 17% of Bitcoin's daily return variation.

TOP STORIES

1. Dollar strength has limited impact on Bitcoin price
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/09/30/a-stronger-dollar-is-a-weaker-threat-to-bitcoin-than-traders-think
Published: 2026-09-30
Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index has risen 2.6% since September 9, reaching a two-month high of 101.69. Bitcoin prices have pulled back to the $83,000-$84,000 range from a recent high near $87,500, but the correlation with the dollar remains modest. Data shows a 90-day correlation of -0.41 between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, implying the dollar explains only about 17% of Bitcoin's daily return variation. This relationship is weaker than the 30-day correlation of -0.45, which is heavily influenced by two specific days of divergence. The loose link to the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields supports the view of Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier with independent price drivers.

2. Bitcoin ETF holders face potential losses as price nears cost basis
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-could-put-the-average-etf-buyer-back-in-losses-this-week
Published: 2026-09-30 02:40 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $83,579 on September 29, sitting just above the estimated average cost basis for ETF holders. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart calculated this break-even point at $81,722, meaning a decline of roughly 2.2% would push the average investor back into losses. On-chain data from Glassnode identifies a significant supply cluster between $84,000 and $85,000, which currently acts as overhead resistance. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the 365-day moving average sits lower at $80,500, providing a secondary support level below the ETF cost basis. Upcoming US economic data, including PCE inflation and GDP figures, will likely determine whether Bitcoin tests these critical technical levels.

3. DOE Solicits 40 Million Barrels of Oil, Impact on Bitcoin Unproven
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-could-react-to-new-40m-barrel-us-oil-sale-before-a-single-barrel-is-delivered
Published: 2026-09-30 07:20 AM CT
Summary: The US Department of Energy solicited bids for up to 40 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with proposals due October 6 and deliveries scheduled for November and December. This offer falls within the existing 172-million-barrel release commitment and does not represent new oil already moving into the market. The September 29 announcement cannot affect the August Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which is scheduled for release on September 30. Bitcoin traded around $83,000 on September 30, while two-year Treasury yields stood at 4.89% and 10-year yields at 5.26%. No data currently proves that this specific oil offer has already influenced inflation expectations, bond yields, or Bitcoin prices.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | qwen3.8-flash-next

[asUHWEceyc]

So what's the verdict? Is this going to get real soon or is it just another stupid wet dream of some unimportant dutch party?

Both: it's the wet dream of our minority cabinet, supported by a leftwing party. So it looks like they'll get a majority on this.

I see so many people online who want to leave the country because of this. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the straw that broke the camel's back, leading to a reduced tax income for the Dutch government.

36% is awfully steep. Curious as to how an unrealized capital gains regime functions in practice? Look no further than property taxes in the US. It's a sham system of relative valuation that's been normalized over many decades, and of course, real estate is unavoidably physical and public- being a property owner involves declaring ownership legalistically- even if behind a corporate shell, else it will be "taken back" in most cases.

Forgetting your keys might be the best course of action, but who knows, maybe legislators will gift hodlers a fiat valuation ceiling for 65+/veteran/trans/minorities?

[Lucius]

Looks like we're bullish already..

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/30/bitcoin-rally-shows-signs-of-cooling-even-as-a-bull-score-gauge-nears-its-perfect-score

CryptoQuant, an onchain analysis firm, pegs its Bull Score at 90 out of 100. The score rolls onchain and market indicators into a single reading, and it jumped after bitcoin broke above its 365-day moving average last week, a break the firm treats as confirmation of a bull market.

90 over 100... hmm... ready for this?

Most people in WO have been ready since the time when such companies didn't even exist. Despite all their mostly pointless analyses, BTC doesn't care.

[Paashaas]

Uptober!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

So what's the verdict? Is this going to get real soon or is it just another stupid wet dream of some unimportant dutch party?

Both: it's the wet dream of our minority cabinet, supported by a leftwing party. So it looks like they'll get a majority on this.

I see so many people online who want to leave the country because of this. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the straw that broke the camel's back, leading to a reduced tax income for the Dutch government.

36% is awfully steep. Curious as to how an unrealized capital gains regime functions in practice? Look no further than property taxes in the US. It's a sham system of relative valuation that's been normalized over many decades, and of course, real estate is unavoidably physical and public- being a property owner involves declaring ownership legalistically- even if behind a corporate shell, else it will be "taken back" in most cases.

Forgetting your keys might be the best course of action, but who knows, maybe legislators will gift hodlers a fiat valuation ceiling for 65+/veteran/trans/minorities?

An entire class of people need to buy boats, I hear Orcas are tipping them so it would be a shame if the keys got gobbled up by a whale.

[Hueristic]

Looks like we're bullish already..

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/30/bitcoin-rally-shows-signs-of-cooling-even-as-a-bull-score-gauge-nears-its-perfect-score

CryptoQuant, an onchain analysis firm, pegs its Bull Score at 90 out of 100. The score rolls onchain and market indicators into a single reading, and it jumped after bitcoin broke above its 365-day moving average last week, a break the firm treats as confirmation of a bull market.

90 over 100... hmm... ready for this?

Most people in WO have been ready since the time when such companies didn't even exist. Despite all their mostly pointless analyses, BTC doesn't care.

The proper term is "Honey Badger don't give a shit".