Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xzy887]

So we basically ended September which it was always not a good month for us but this time it ended up being  a net positive month for us. It is not so much since is more like a 5/7% up for the whole month but is much better than other months and is way better than other september from other years in which it was a bear month.

Well now we enter in October, are we gonna have finally a good move upward?If you ask me i dont think so, since we have the mid-term elections so close i cant see a bull run for us in this month, maybe after this fog from midter pass away we can have some good terrain to start to build some pace into the 100k again.

Do you know what we have in October?(aside of Oktoberfest), we have the first cut of my latest contest about BTC price prediction. 

Look, Bitcoin is something that just makes people think. In reality, no one can give a correct explanation for it, we just have to live with the possibilities.  If we look at the past few years of Bitcoin, So it can be seen that every time Bitcoin is in a very good position in the last 3 months. From that point of view, I think that Bitcoin will improve in the remaining 3 months of this year as well.

This is just my prediction. Remember, Bitcoin always likes to make people think.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-01 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-01 09:04 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways with a 0.81% dip over the last 24 hours, as the market digests the end of a nine-day ETF inflow streak. The Fear & Greed Index remains in Greed at 74, suggesting that despite the recent $148.7 million outflow, sentiment has not yet cracked. Price action is flat, hovering just above the 30-day moving average of $80,577.

Outlook: Traders should watch whether the ETF outflow trend persists or if this was a one-day correction following the recent rally. The market needs to see if volume can expand beyond its current low levels to sustain any upward momentum.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $83,840.00, down 0.81% over 24 hours and down 0.8% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +1 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers currently hold the upper hand, but their control is fragile given the narrow price action. The Fear & Greed index sits at 74, indicating a market that is optimistic but not yet euphoric. This sentiment suggests that participants are comfortable with current valuations, yet the lack of significant momentum implies a lack of conviction. A decisive break above $85,500 would signal that buyers are ready to absorb supply and push higher. Conversely, a failure to hold $82,500 would indicate that the recent optimism is fading and sellers are gaining traction.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $82,500 (54%): triggers: Price remains between $82,500 and $85,500 through Friday. Invalidation: A daily close below $82,500 or above $85,500 through Friday.
- Breakout Toward $86,500 (20%): triggers: Price closes above $85,500 through Friday. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain levels above $85,500 through Friday.
- Drop to $81,000 (26%): triggers: Price closes below $82,500 through Friday. Invalidation: Price recovers and closes above $82,500 through Friday.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Regulatory Clarity: The ADAPT Act draft proposes exempting certain stablecoin transactions from capital gains, which could reduce friction for everyday crypto payments.
- Security Risks: Q3 crypto hacks cost $1.26 billion, with September alone accounting for $768.5 million, highlighting ongoing operational fragility despite institutional adoption.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs End $3 Billion Inflow Streak with $149 Million Outflow
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-01-bitcoin-etfs-9-day-3-billion-inflow-streak-comes-to-an-end-as-149-million-exits-the-funds-417384
Published: 2026-09-30
Summary: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a nine-day, $3.1 billion net inflow streak on Wednesday with $148.7 million in combined net outflows. BlackRock's IBIT fund also halted its own nine-day, $1.6 billion inflow run, recording $9.5 million in outflows. Fidelity's FBTC led the daily losses with $125.6 million in outflows, followed by Bitwise's BITB with $13.6 million. Despite the recent pullback, the funds have generated over $57 billion in cumulative net inflows since their January 2024 debut and hold over $100 billion in assets under management. Bitcoin traded around $83,950 on Thursday after closing September up 6.4%, as softer PCE inflation data reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike.

2. Crypto Hacks Cost $1.26 Billion in Q3 as Bitcoin Rallies
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/10/01/crypto-lost-usd1-26-billion-in-hacks-while-bitcoin-bulls-enjoyed-a-monster-quarter
Published: 2026-10-01
Summary: Bitcoin closed the third quarter up 40%, outperforming major assets despite rising Treasury yields. Security firm CertiK reported 247 crypto security incidents in the quarter, resulting in $1.26 billion in losses. September alone accounted for $768.5 million stolen across 99 incidents, marking the highest monthly loss of 2026. On-chain crypto insurance coverage capacity fell 20.2% year-over-year to $130.2 million, leaving the safety net shrinking relative to risks. Analysts note that while institutional investors are buying Bitcoin through ETFs, repeated exploits reinforce perceptions of operational fragility and may increase regulatory scrutiny.

3. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Fade as Volume Stays Low
URL: https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-39-2026
Published: 2026-09-30 09:40 AM CT
Summary: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows peak at approximately $1 billion on September 21 and 22, but daily buying has since shrunk to $24 million as of September 28. Long-term holders, defined as those holding coins for more than 155 days, nearly doubled their realized profit in the week ending September 29, raising their share of total realized profit from 34% to 55%. A significant wall of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on the Binance spot book is currently capping Bitcoin's price, while the True Market Mean sits at $77,200 as the first major support level. Total Bitcoin trading volume averages about $6.4 billion a day, remaining near the bottom of its range since the launch of US spot ETFs, which indicates the current rally is early and lacks broad participation. Altcoins have outpaced Bitcoin over the past month, but leverage remains modest with only 19% of altcoins paying funding rates above the neutral threshold, suggesting limited risk of a forced unwind.

4. US court blocks victims from 127,000 seized Bitcoin
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/us-court-blocks-victims-from-127000-seized-bitcoin-and-petition-rules-are-blamed
Published: 2026-10-01 01:30 AM CT
Summary: Judge Rachel P. Kovner rejected claims by nine alleged fraud victims seeking to contest the forfeiture of approximately 127,271 Bitcoin. The court struck two timely claims and denied seven requests to file late, finding that the claimants lacked Article III standing. The filings failed to plausibly connect the victims' lost funds to the specific seized wallets, leaving them without a qualifying interest in the assets. The case involves Bitcoin linked to fraud and money laundering allegations against Prince Holding Group and its chairman, Chen Zhi. Victims may still pursue recovery through the DOJ's victim remission process if the government succeeds in the forfeiture action, though this route requires documented losses and does not guarantee full repayment.

5. Senate tax bill exempts some shitcoin spending from capital gains, keeps Bitcoin taxable
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/senate-tax-bill-frees-stablecoin-spending-while-bitcoin-stays-on-irs-forms
Published: 2026-10-01 07:20 AM CT
Summary: Sen. Steve Daines released the ADAPT Act, a draft tax bill that would exempt eligible US dollar some shitcoin purchases from capital gain or loss recognition. The proposal defines covered some shitcoins as those issued by permitted entities under the GENIUS Act, trading within 3% of $1.00, and listed in quarterly Treasury reports. Bitcoin payments would remain taxable dispositions requiring cost-basis calculations, though a separate provision would exempt network fees of $10 or less from gain or loss recognition. The bill excludes traders, brokers, and dealers from these exemptions and requires taxpayers to maintain records distinguishing eligible payments. If enacted, the provisions would apply to transactions starting Jan. 1, 2027, leaving current IRS guidance in force until then.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | qwen3.8-flash-next

[UpTober]

Uptober!

The caption also sends me a notification.
Caption: Uptober!
My BTT Username: Uptober

[d_eddie]

This may give some piece of mind to some of our fellow WOers. But only until the next genius comes along with another super-smart idea about squeezing those pesky, filthy rich bitcoiners.

Netherlands drops plan to tax unrealized Bitcoin gains after investor backlash

https://cryptobriefing.com/netherlands-scraps-36-tax-on-unsold-bitcoin-easing-investor-concerns/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

This may give some piece of mind to some of our fellow WOers. But only until the next genius comes along with another super-smart idea about squeezing those pesky, filthy rich bitcoiners.

Netherlands drops plan to tax unrealized Bitcoin gains after investor backlash

https://cryptobriefing.com/netherlands-scraps-36-tax-on-unsold-bitcoin-easing-investor-concerns/

 Just so everyone is on the same page.  The reason this "issue" came up is due to the fact that the supreme court in the Netherlands ruled that their "Wealth" tax was unlawful and violated the EU's Convention on Human Rights.  The government can no longer tax Dutch citizens on imaginary gains with a made-up flat rate.  They were forced to come up with a fix which was was also struck down by their supreme court.  There will be no tax on unrealized gains of any sort in the Netherlands.

 The proposal being batted around here as legit was a leftist proposal to use as a bargaining chip against right of center proposal to cut social spending... I guess you could say it was successful, if you enjoy theater, but there NEVER would have been a 36% tax on unrealized bitcoin gains in the Netherlands now that it has been deemed unconstitutional and unlawful by the supreme court.  The media presents the outcome as the result of bargaining between various gov't factions and threats of an economic exodus but the reality is that tax on unrealized gains was already DEAD in the Netherlands.  So you have ideologically-arrogant or willfully-incompetent politicians with contempt for the rule of law proposing legislation that wont fly and a lazy mainstream media who would rather report on some parliamentary drama than do any real factual reporting scaring the shit out of investors needlessly.  Of course this doesn't only happen in the Netherlands but this is the most recent, glaring example I have seen.

 Still, a 36% tax on realized gains is pretty hefty - I would imagine capital flight is still on the table.

[Lucius]

This may give some piece of mind to some of our fellow WOers. But only until the next genius comes along with another super-smart idea about squeezing those pesky, filthy rich bitcoiners.

Netherlands drops plan to tax unrealized Bitcoin gains after investor backlash

https://cryptobriefing.com/netherlands-scraps-36-tax-on-unsold-bitcoin-easing-investor-concerns/

The Netherlands has been releasing trial balloons on this topic for a long time, but it was logical that public resistance would be too great and that they would have to give up or face the fact that people would either go to live in another country or try to avoid taxes in every possible way. 

I understand people who want to pay taxes and spend their money without fear of the taxman - but on the other hand, I will do everything in my power to avoid that tax because I don't want to fill the pockets of corrupt politicians and what's even more important to me, I don't want to be in a database that sooner or later will be hacked/sold and then wait for criminals to knock on my door like they do in some other countries.

Of course, not paying taxes has its downsides because you can't buy a Lambo or a villa, but those who don't need it will always find a way to enjoy their profits without the risk of tax collectors and criminals.

[Danish Ali]

This may give some piece of mind to some of our fellow WOers. But only until the next genius comes along with another super-smart idea about squeezing those pesky, filthy rich bitcoiners.

Netherlands drops plan to tax unrealized Bitcoin gains after investor backlash

https://cryptobriefing.com/netherlands-scraps-36-tax-on-unsold-bitcoin-easing-investor-concerns/

 Just so everyone is on the same page.  The reason this "issue" came up is due to the fact that the supreme court in the Netherlands ruled that their "Wealth" tax was unlawful and violated the EU's Convention on Human Rights.  The government can no longer tax Dutch citizens on imaginary gains with a made-up flat rate.  They were forced to come up with a fix which was was also struck down by their supreme court.  There will be no tax on unrealized gains of any sort in the Netherlands.

 The proposal being batted around here as legit was a leftist proposal to use as a bargaining chip against right of center proposal to cut social spending... I guess you could say it was successful, if you enjoy theater, but there NEVER would have been a 36% tax on unrealized bitcoin gains in the Netherlands now that it has been deemed unconstitutional and unlawful by the supreme court.  The media presents the outcome as the result of bargaining between various gov't factions and threats of an economic exodus but the reality is that tax on unrealized gains was already DEAD in the Netherlands.  So you have ideologically-arrogant or willfully-incompetent politicians with contempt for the rule of law proposing legislation that wont fly and a lazy mainstream media who would rather report on some parliamentary drama than do any real factual reporting scaring the shit out of investors needlessly.  Of course this doesn't only happen in the Netherlands but this is the most recent, glaring example I have seen.

 Still, a 36% tax on realized gains is pretty hefty - I would imagine capital flight is still on the table.

This is exactly what you would expect from bureaucrats; governments trying to levy taxes on profits that arent real yet.

Politicians using their power to scare journalists, and investors to make political points. Investors getting spooked by phantom income.

Governments taxing imaginary earnings in actual cash. People getting sick of it all and leaving. With taxes at 36 percent of realized gains, maybe I should keep my keys stashed on the boat. Its the best macroeconomic strategy I’ve heard so far.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

Uptober!

Just came to see read this "Uptober"  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Junii]

This is exactly what you would expect from bureaucrats; governments trying to levy taxes on profits that arent real yet.

Politicians using their power to scare journalists, and investors to make political points. Investors getting spooked by phantom income.

Governments taxing imaginary earnings in actual cash. People getting sick of it all and leaving. With taxes at 36 percent of realized gains, maybe I should keep my keys stashed on the boat. Its the best macroeconomic strategy I’ve heard so far.

Hahaha i also heard about the boat strategy and may be i also do it in few years because in our country the government is also busy working on crypto tax laws.

[OgNasty]

This is exactly what you would expect from bureaucrats; governments trying to levy taxes on profits that arent real yet.

Politicians using their power to scare journalists, and investors to make political points. Investors getting spooked by phantom income.

Governments taxing imaginary earnings in actual cash. People getting sick of it all and leaving. With taxes at 36 percent of realized gains, maybe I should keep my keys stashed on the boat. Its the best macroeconomic strategy I’ve heard so far.

Hahaha i also heard about the boat strategy and may be i also do it in few years because in our country the government is also busy working on crypto tax laws.

The hardest part about losing all your Bitcoin in a boating accident isn’t even losing your Bitcoin. It is that you have become so accustomed to the address that you keep sending funds there for years afterwards. Such a weird thing to do, yet so many people still do it. Someone should investigate this phenomenon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

This is exactly what you would expect from bureaucrats; governments trying to levy taxes on profits that arent real yet.

Politicians using their power to scare journalists, and investors to make political points. Investors getting spooked by phantom income.

Governments taxing imaginary earnings in actual cash. People getting sick of it all and leaving. With taxes at 36 percent of realized gains, maybe I should keep my keys stashed on the boat. Its the best macroeconomic strategy I’ve heard so far.

Hahaha i also heard about the boat strategy and may be i also do it in few years because in our country the government is also busy working on crypto tax laws.

The hardest part about losing all your Bitcoin in a boating accident isn’t even losing your Bitcoin. It is that you have become so accustomed to the address that you keep sending funds there for years afterwards. Such a weird thing to do, yet so many people still do it. Someone should investigate this phenomenon.

It's hard to investigate: more often than not, those who suffer such terrible accidents can't even remember the address. The sending of funds in those cases is likely due to some automated bot left to dry out there.

[cAPSLOCK]

Today's flavor of FUD has something to do with a $1 billion coinbase hacked by North Korea?

Hmm.  Probably false. But we will see...

Maybe I'll try to find the link.

This is where it stems from. Sounds like the claims are the hacks have been going on for some time or something.  But you know how Twitter is.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.
.

Liquid is now a fractional reserve.

These rumors? Well, we could end up with the honey pot being a fractional reserve too.

I will say one more time. I'm not saying that this is happening or that it's credible, but how could it not be by this point? I hope we don't have to learn the hard way.

[LoyceV]

Netherlands drops plan to tax unrealized Bitcoin gains after investor backlash

This looks like click bait to me. On Dutch sites, all I've seen is the state secretary saying "we can't do it any other way". Right. If that's true, they shouldn't tax it at all!