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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27060647 times)
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October 02, 2026, 04:31:36 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (20)

hmm 86k

wen 91k?
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October 02, 2026, 05:04:32 AM
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Netherlands drops plan to tax unrealized Bitcoin gains after investor backlash
This looks like click bait to me. On Dutch sites, all I've seen is the state secretary saying "we can't do it any other way". Right. If that's true, they shouldn't tax it at all!

I don't understand what you mean. I assume you're better informed on this, given your background, so I'll ask.

Click bait as in they haven't really dropped it and are still going along?
They can't do what any other way than how?

 It hasn't been officially dropped but the finance minister doesn't want to proceed with the law as written (any more) and neither does the senate. The problem is that it was passed by the lower house earlier this year even though it violates the same laws the supreme court ruled against twice already. The reasoning is that their IT systems are not able to track individual investors gains on gold, silver, and crypto, so the proposal is to tax those based on their year-over-year gains regardless of a sale through 2030 to give them time to upgrade their systems, but stocks, bonds, and real estate will switch to a tax on realized gains in 2028.  A larger issue is the fact that by complying with the law, the country is left with a few billion Euro cash shortage.  Taxing people every year on their overall wealth with an unrealized gains tax gave them a consistent tax base for budgeting.  The new system will throw the countries finances into turmoil because you can hodl for years and not pay any tax.  This is where the Finance Ministry totally fucked up: Their proposed fix for this shortfall was to lower the tax-free exemption (from about 60k to 30k) on the unrealized gains and to increase the imaginary rate of return to 7.87% from 6% and then tax on that amount at 36%.  This is what the major backlash was about - killing everyone's nest egg.  The finance minister has publicly back-tracked and said this will not happen.  The senate and the finance minister want to kill the paper tax entirely, and there is a meeting on Oct 5th to decide exactly how to do it.  This meeting will be about getting serious about the budget without doubling down on violating everyone's rights I image... if they have a budget problem now, the cost of the court cases over a bill like this being put into the books will probably dwarf that.  This is the stuff of governmental collapse and snap elections.

 It's all over but the crying. 

 Damn that hurt my brain and I didn't even get into the account fraud accusations against the finance minster
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hmm 86k

wen 91k?

Well?  Should "we" be surprised by $86k?  We were already at $87,374 about 10/11 days ago.

So it is not like the current price is very much different from the price 10/11 days ago, yet at the same time, when the BTC price went to $87k 10/11 days ago, there had been a stair-stepping up from largely the upper $70ks.

Right now we have no ideas about if there is going to be any more stair-stepping up or maybe the upper $80ks become an area in which we can hang out for a while... even though largely $91k seems to be with the noise territory, too.. and even though surely there are many folks who are going to start to get excited if BTC prices start to meander into the $90ks.. whether the lower, mid or upper.. - and noise will sometimes snowball into something more meaningful.. (been there, done that, plenty of times in bitcoin - through the years). 
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October 02, 2026, 05:52:50 AM
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Netherlands drops plan to tax unrealized Bitcoin gains after investor backlash
This looks like click bait to me. On Dutch sites, all I've seen is the state secretary saying "we can't do it any other way". Right. If that's true, they shouldn't tax it at all!
I don't understand what you mean. I assume you're better informed on this, given your background, so I'll ask.

Click bait as in they haven't really dropped it and are still going along?
They can't do what any other way than how?
The only Dutch source I found about this says they can't drop this crazy idea:
De Tweede Kamer behandelt al een wetsvoorstel om Box 3 te hervormen. Omdat het kabinet de nieuwe regels snel wil aanpassen, wil het met een zogenoemde novelle een paar wijzigingen aan dat wetsvoorstel toevoegen.

Die snelle route is alleen mogelijk voor onderwerpen waarvoor de bestaande wet al een juridische basis biedt. Voor directe crypto ontbreekt die basis, zei Eerenberg: “Omdat dat gewoon feitelijk niet kan.”

De Box 3-wet bevat al een uitzondering voor waardepapieren van start-ups en scale-ups. Die kan relatief eenvoudig worden uitgebreid naar andere financiële instrumenten, zoals beursgenoteerde aandelen. Voor directe bitcoin en andere cryptomunten ontbreekt zo’n aanknopingspunt.

“Crypto, cognac, goud, zilver, allemaal andere dingen waar mensen in zouden kunnen beleggen. Pokémon-kaarten. Het zat niet in de wet”, legde de staatssecretaris uit.

Voor crypto en die andere bezittingen is een bredere wetswijziging nodig. In de snelle route blijven ze daarom onder de vermogensaanwasbelasting vallen. Daarbij telt een waardestijging mee, ook als de belegging nog niet is verkocht.
They're claiming crypto isn't included in the new law yet, and changing that would require changing more laws. And of course, the only thing they can do quickly is increasing taxes, not improving things.
So long story short: if Bitcoin goes up this year, I pay about 2.1% tax on the total value. If it goes up next year, I pay 2.7% on the total value. If it goes up in 2028, I pay 36% on the increase in value that year. The same in 2029. But if it drops in any of those years, I don't pay tax. If it drops a lot, my cost base is a lot lower in 2030. So if it goes up a lot in 2030 and I sell, I'll pay tax again on the same increase I paid taxes on so many times already.
HODLing is a lot easier if you're not being taxed on paper gains year after year.
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The flight of the Flydubai company that was going from Dubai to Tel Aviv was diverted and made an emergency landing an hour later in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, the most interesting thing was that,the stabbed pilot who transmitted the international code '7500'. hijacking or illegal interference in the aircraft, in my opinion, the presidential elections of Israel are near, and maybe Bibi wants to stay in power just like Zelensky? false flag? I don't know,but the circumstances are not normal.... these Zionists...

You find it suspicious that a flight bound for Israel has Israelis on it? That a pilot on a plane that was attempted to be hijacked set their transponder appropriately? What's the angle here?

I ask because I do love a good conspiracy but this seems like a bit of a leap.

If there were no reasons, I wouldn't think about it, but there are.

Remembering that I'm only answering you,
and not wanting to convince you or convince myself.

Quote from: Voice of Rabbis

 Voice of Rabbis exists to make one truth clear:

Judaism is not Zionism.

 Zionism is a political ideology that claims to represent Judaism, fueling conflict and misleading the world. Confusing the two damages religion, fuels antisemitism, and gives politics a false cloak of holiness. By teaching the difference, we defend the integrity of Judaism and bring clarity and peace.


-Well, from my perspective, there is a 40% chance that this event was natural, that is, it occurred as the narrative represents, and 60% that it was set up to seem natural, due to current circumstances.
 Honestly, I personally don't see it as an exaggeration, knowing that the cockpit door was open, the rule says it should be closed.
 Well, if this hadn't been set up, but a real goal of the co-pilot, he would have accomplished it, and wouldn't have left the door open, so I think he was convinced and paid to do it, and yes, I also think he wanted to be a martyr and be remembered for committing such an atrocity, just to make it clear that I'm not on any side, and I like to have different perspectives of events.

Quote
Israelis go to the polls in 2026 for one of Israel's most contentious elections in recent history, which many observers consider to be a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's handling of the October 7 attack and the Israel-Hamas War.
>https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Israeli-Elections

Quote

Netanyahu's Pardon Request Borrows From Trump's Playbook -
 The New York times
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/01/world/middleeast/netanyahu-pardon-corruption-israel-trump.html
Dec 1, 2025 In many ways, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's request mimics how President Trump has assailed his perceived enemies and attacked legal proceedings against him.
/
New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/world/middleeast/trump-israel-president-pardon-netanyahu.html

Trump Calls for Israel's President to Pardon Netanyahu. Could It Happen ...
Oct 13, 2025The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been on trial for corruption since 2020, battling charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three separate but related cases.




It may seem exaggerated, making us wonder if they care about people's lives, and then I think, the glyphosate used to poison and kill Palestinians and the millennial olive trees, is manufactured by Bayer, a spider's web not so invisible that society does not stop to think. Decimating human races is not new in this world... especially in a country where Bayer is headquartered.

Monsanto (Bayer), Dow (DowDuPont), Adama (ChemChina) implicated in Gaza blockade


  Since 2014, the Israeli military has been aerially spraying vegetation-killing herbicides in Gaza in order to clear out the area along the Gaza border. The spraying is done by aircraft a few times a year, during December-January and again around April. The Israeli Ministry of Defense claims the spraying is done on the Israeli side of the border and refuses to disclose the exact locations for “security reasons.” However, many Palestinian farmers had their vegetable fields and crops destroyed. The Red Cross confirmed that the herbicides “completely destroyed” crops and contaminated water sources located within 3,000 feet from the border. The herbicides were also found to have damaged crops up to 1.3 miles inside the Gaza Strip. The entire width of the Gaza Strip ranges between 3.5 and 7.5 miles. During the 2017-2018 winter spraying season, the herbicides affected 544 acres of agricultural lands and 2,570 acres of pasture.

Lebanon says Israel sprayed southern villages
with concentrated herbicide

Quote from: MEMO

 Human rights organisation Medico International and the German network “Coordination gegen Bayer-Gefahren“ (Coordination against Bayer Dangers, CBG) have reported that the glyphosate and white phosphorus used by the Israeli occupation forces in Lebanon which were presumably of German origin.

 At the beginning of February this year, reports emerged in the international media alleging that the Israeli army had deployed the environmental toxin glyphosate in southern Lebanon and in occupied Syria.

 
Quote
According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Agriculture, glyphosate concentrations in some samples taken in the region exceeded “normal levels by around 20 to 30 times”. Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun described the situation as “environmental and health crimes”.

 The incident is of particular relevance to Germany, as the US-based glyphosate manufacturer Monsanto was acquired in 2018 by the German chemical and pharmaceutical giant Bayer, one of the world’s largest chemical corporations. As a result, not only did Germany’s mainstream media take up the issue – despite their otherwise consistent reluctance to report on Israeli war crimes – but the matter also reached the agenda of the German Bundestag.

  However, there has been little in the way of public outrage. After a few critical remarks, the issue quickly faded from public debate, and it is unlikely that a wider German audience is aware that Israel is not only carrying out a genocide in Gaza using German-supplied weapons, attacking Iran and Lebanon with German arms, enforcing the blockade of Gaza with German naval vessels, and raiding Gaza Solidarity flotillas with the same equipment, but is also reportedly using chemical agents produced with German industrial involvement.

The wild card: How Netanyahu could still wreck Washington’s Iran deal
That may now be changing. Last Thursday, the human rights organisation Medico International published a report titled “Cartographies of Destruction: Israel’s War Against Lebanon”, produced in cooperation with its Lebanese partner organisation “Public Works”. Alongside numerous alleged war crimes, the report also documents the repeated use of white phosphorus by Israel in Lebanon. According to the report, this substance also originates from Monsanto. Jan Pehrke of the CBG stated: “There is strong evidence that phosphorus used in the Middle East war comes from Bayer’s glyphosate production facility in Soda Springs in the United States.”

Quote
While it has long been known that Israel has repeatedly used white phosphorus in its wars on Gaza and Lebanon, the alleged use of glyphosate is a relatively new claim. However, Riad Othman, Middle East officer at Medico International, noted that the carcinogenic herbicide was already “tested” by the Israeli military in the Gaza Strip in 2014.


 I put these facts above to show that life for them is not important, and Israel is expanding there since its creation, it is not the Israelis' idea, since this state did not exist before its creation there. What I am seeing now is a pause in this expansion for reasons... and then from this fact, new anti-terrorism immigration travel laws are being modified or created?

 RichT, when a fabric is manually sew using thread, during sewing stitches are given, and these stitches are a Knot that locks the sewing, then, there is no stitch without a knot, and so it is seized as if for a story to be considered true, it needs to have facts that corroborate its veracity and then facts are created. We can then say that this would only be a knot within a long cost, which does not mean that the costing will be completed.

 So I think that my perspective is very broad, and I see from one angle, that this fact is only a point in the costing...



 Honestly, for me, it is very difficult to believe in both versions,
 that the co-pilot acted alone, and or that this was preconfigured.



ah.. I spent a while looking for the FBI agents who in the past made an appointment at 'localbitcoin' and arrested the guys who sold only in cash, but I didn't find it..., but I would say that they should keep doing it and each time more and more he has more services, I hope that these 2p platforms explode to increase... but at the same time the risks of buying BTC in person is great, here in my country and in many others, several cases of their theft and deaths...


Quote
EDIT back on topic...in US, after 2029 , you might have to 'declare' your bitcoin.

What do you mean, declare? The IRS already ends up knowing how much you're holding, at least as long as you're either buying it, selling it, or getting it by any legitimate path.

You Said It All, they do it in every corner of the world, but if no legitimate means have been used for this purpose, The person may suffer consequences, such as fines, arrests, home invasions, but remember, everything to protect you and have total control of each one's life, especially the lives of those who do not want this benefit of control., but I feel very sad for these who surrender. For these bandits, sometimes they leave no other alternative... but there always are, but with risks... such as finding someone in person to negotiate, you may be arranging a meeting with a thief and or even with the official income tax thief 


According to credit card records, patients visited Louisiana chiropractor Randall B. Lord’s offices for services like “mood counseling” and “chakra realignment.” But in reality, Lord hasn’t been licensed to practice in nearly a decade, and was actually using his credit card merchant accounts to sell hundreds of thousands of dollars in bitcoin, some of which went toward illicit purposes, federal prosecutors say.

Lord, along with his son Michael Aaron Lord, pleaded guilty in federal court last month to conspiring to operate an unlicensed money servicing business. According to an indictment filed in the case, Michael advertised “bitcoin services” on the website LocalBitcoins.com...
...
In 2013, the U.S. closed Liberty Reserve, an unlicensed exchange where it alleged that the site’s widely used digital currency was being used to launder proceeds from credit card trafficking, identity theft, Ponzi schemes, and hacking. This month, one of the site’s founders received a 20-year prison sentence, while the other, who agreed to help(?) prosecute his ex-partner, was sentenced to 10 years
....
in online–others may simply be investors taking advantage of better exchange rates available through person-to-person transactions.

Generally, most people who have been charged in connection with unlicensed exchanges have also been linked by prosecutors to other illegal activity, such as online illicit drug sales.
That’s the position Colorado engineer Burt Wagner says he was in in 2014, when he was arrested by federal agents and charged in connection with operating an unlicensed “digital currency exchange business.” Wagner says he mostly bought and sold bitcoin through Mt. Gox, the leading online exchange at the time, but he also advertised on LocalBitcoins, meeting up with local trading partners at coffee shops and the like.

“It was a small part of my entire trading,” he says. “The main reason I did it was just to meet bitcoiners and chat with them.”

An indictment filed in the case alleged that Wagner handled funds “known to the defendant to have been derived from a criminal offense and were intended to be used to promote and support unlawful activity,” but Wagner says he never knowingly did any shady deals. The charges against him were dropped in 2015—though not before, he says, he paid thousands of dollars in legal fees. Federal prosecutors declined, through a spokesman, to comment on the case, and many of the documents in his case remain under seal.

But from documents that are available, it appears he was tied by authorities, correctly or not, to alleged dark web drug transactions.

“The indictment in this case follows a 15-month investigation involving online and conventional undercover activities,” prosecutors wrote in a court filing. “Specifically, the investigation involves individuals engaging in digital currency transactions and/or the purchase and sale of controlled substances over the internet using ‘Deep Web’ black marketplaces.”....
...


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This progression by sudden leaps and bounds smells like liquidated leverage, more than organic growth. Of course, this is verified SOMA analysis. At any rate, who am I to complain? Go bitcoin go, let's make the uptober myth real!
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BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-02 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-02 09:04 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding higher, up 3.29% over the last 24 hours as the market digests a resilient Q3 performance despite rising Treasury yields. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 72, indicating sustained greed, though the slight weekly deterioration suggests caution among participants. This upward momentum is supported by strong ETF inflows that have helped offset macroeconomic headwinds.

Outlook: Traders should monitor the upcoming US jobs report for potential volatility, as weak employment data could reinforce rate-cut expectations but also raise growth concerns. Additionally, watch for continued ETF net inflows, which remain a primary driver of price support, to see if institutional demand persists beyond the initial breakout.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $86,630.00, up 3.29% over 24 hours and up 3.1% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +5 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers currently hold the initiative, pushing price toward the upper boundary of the recent range. The market sits comfortably above the $82,500 support, which acts as the primary floor for this consolidation phase. A decisive break above $91,000 would signal a shift from choppy accumulation to a sustained trend. Conversely, a failure to hold $82,500 would expose the downside target at $78,500. The current sentiment suggests participants are willing to pay a premium, but the lack of hashrate data leaves a gap in confirming network security trends.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $82,500 (32%): triggers: Price remains between $82,500 and $91,000 through Friday. Invalidation: A close below $82,500 or above $91,000 through Friday.
- Breakout Toward $95,000 (56%): triggers: Price closes above $91,000 through Friday. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain levels above $91,000 through Friday.
- Downside Re-test of $78,500 (12%): triggers: Price closes below $82,500 through Friday. Invalidation: Price recovers and closes above $82,500 through Friday.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- US Jobs Report: The September employment data released today missed expectations, strengthening the case against an October rate hike while introducing growth scare risks that could influence Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.
- Treasury Yield Correlation: Bitcoin's ability to rise 43% in Q3 despite 10-year Treasury yields hitting 5.34% highlights a decoupling from traditional risk assets, driven by ETF demand rather than macro tailwinds.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Survives 5% Yields as Crypto Financing Costs Rise
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survived-5-yields-but-cryptos-cheap-money-era-did-not
Published: 2026-10-02 07:20 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin rose 43% in the third quarter despite the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $6.3 billion in inflows during the same period, offsetting the pressure from higher interest rates. The surge in yields increased the cost of leverage, triggering significant liquidations and raising funding costs for Bitcoin treasury companies. DeFi yields now face stiff competition from risk-free Treasury returns, forcing protocols to offer higher returns or greater risk premiums to attract capital. Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000, citing sustained ETF demand and gradual institutional adoption as key drivers.

2. Bitcoin ETF inflows return as BTC reclaims $86,000 ahead of US jobs report
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-sees-big-overnight-rally-as-etf-demand-returns-before-the-next-us-jobs-test
Published: 2026-10-02 06:30 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded at $86,325.44 at 08:40 UTC, up 3.67% over 24 hours, after US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $102.7 million on Oct. 1. BlackRock's IBIT fund attracted capital while Fidelity's FBTC and other funds saw redemptions, resulting in a net positive flow that supported the price recovery. CoinGlass data indicated about $135.47 million in liquidated Bitcoin futures positions, with CoinNess reporting that 91.13% of these liquidations involved short positions, suggesting forced buying accelerated the move. Inflation data remains a headwind, with the August PCE report showing core inflation at 3.0% year over year and the ISM manufacturing prices index rising to 77.9. The September US jobs report scheduled for 12:30 UTC on Oct. 2 will test whether Bitcoin can hold the $86,000 level amid persistent macroeconomic risks.

3. Bitcoin nears highest level since January as $85,000 sell wall clears, US jobs data disappoints
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-02-bitcoin-nears-highest-level-january-85000-sell-wall-clears-us-jobs-data-disappoints-417570
Published: 2026-10-02 08:33 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $86,700 on Friday after breaking out of the $82,500 to $85,700 range and topping $87,000, its highest level since September 23. Glassnode reported that sellers partly filled and then pulled the remaining asks around $85,000, leaving little resistance above that level. The next cluster of sell orders sits around $87,000, with about half as many orders as the previous $85,000 wall. U.S. employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, missing expectations, which strengthens the case against an October rate hike but introduces growth scare risks. QCP Capital analysts noted that bitcoin's 12% September rally appeared driven by concentrated flows and ETF inflows rather than a broad debasement narrative.

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