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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 42 (39.6%)
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No - other (explain below) - 15 (14.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27062381 times)
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October 07, 2026, 04:02:14 PM


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October 07, 2026, 04:12:46 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

This is the week of the four year cycle bottom on the calendar. Clearly it was bought by some big money who got in front of the trend. So I wonder a little bit if their plan was to trade the four year cycle trade, or to hold for the long haul. I guess we’ll get our answer if we drop hard from here. I am remaining cautious for the time being. If we dip back into the 60s for any reason, I will toss the horns on and get ready for Pamplona.
Oh gawd!!!!!!    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
We'll have been working on the 4 years cycle for years but don't you think market structure can have a little bend over the head? 

I am not "Oh gawd[ing]" over the existence of the 4-year cycle, but instead the way that OgNasty talks about his own relationship with bitcoin in light of his whatever fantasizing about his supposed plans.

OgNasty is an arrogant fuck who is likely poor as fuck because he admits that he did not figure out that 4 year cycles existed in 2018, yet even if he might have had supposedly learned from that, he still remains arrogant about it.. so yeah, sometimes I am not sure if I am blaming him for his dumbass mistakes prior to 2018 or blaming for his ongoing arrogance since and after 2018.

In either case OgNasty is annoying, and even in some examples, he is even purposefully annoying and in other cases he is annoying with out even trying to be.  It is hard to know the difference in regards to which is which, sometimes..

The 4 years cycle is just a model and not a law, anything can happen in the market and the upper walk on price of Bitcoin maybe a smoky ascending order before a clear signal.

I think that there are quite a few of us who have bought into the idea of cycles ever since we have been in bitcoin (including but not limited to yours truly), yet at the same time, some of the ideas of cycles have evolved over the years too.

Perhaps a tension that might exist relates to how we treat our bitcoin investment in light of whether cycles exist or not, and even if we might recognize the existence of bitcoin cycles it has been quite difficult to try to trade on them, and many times an overwhelming majority of bitcoiners have tended to be way better off if they had errored on the side of ongoing accumulation and HODL, at least until they get to a point of having had accumulating enough or more than enough bitcoin, and so it seems problematic to try to trade the cycle, especially for guys who are trying to trade the cycle in order to accumulate more bitcoin, when they have not yet gotten to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin.

It can take years and years and years to get to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, and surely it seems that guys who are getting into bitcoin later and later are likely to run into a bit of a problem in regards to bitcoin's price curve becoming less and less steep with the passage of time...and so it may well end up taking way longer to both stack enough bitcoin and to be advantaged by bitcoin's seemingly built in compounding effects.

Even in your case @Mummy OS, you have ONLY been registered here for less than 1.5 years, so I have a hard time imagining any ability to really meaningfully stack bitcoin during that time, and for sure, as I already suggested, I continue to not be a fan of trying to trade bitcoin in order to attempt to expedite the accumulation of bitcoin.

So, hopefully for your own good, you are not going to get sucked into the lure of the 4 year cycle in terms of trying to trade upon it rather than ongoingly, persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively accumulating bitcoin through buying (or earning) only methods.

So the new crash has begun right on cue from Og Nasty
We got as low as 83.3k hours after he predicted the new drop.

Thank god I am diverse and have 100 shares of spacex
My guess is spacex reaches $500 a share way sooner than BTC reaches 128k

Hey JJG am I kidding and poking you for a response?
Or is Og really smarter than most of us?

Well you almost got me overly worked up and wanting to respond about your inclinations to be distracted.. but good thing that I read ahead, this time.

Not to shit on BTC but I am thinking  it is a tired asset , well time will tell.

Yes.  Ongoingly it seems to be too bad for you to have such a wiffle-waffly relationship with our savior king daddy...and should I even go into your panic around the cold card timing?   You are like an ongoing saga.. which perhaps is part of your charm.. whether or not if you are any kind of meaningful representative or the trials and tribulations or real world normie peeps?

And, yeah, your last sentence is annoying, and it largely reflects how you feel on the inside about dee cornz, even though sometimes you try to hide it and other times (when the price is going up) you get so excited that you forget that you have such ongoing feewings about dee cornz.

By the way, ongoingly, I do recognize some of the challenges that exist in regards to bitcoin's ongoing diminishing returns and the fact that so many players (and macro-factors) have ways to keep bitcoin's ball(s) pushed under water for longer than many of us would like to be happening.  There has never been any kind of straight-forward path to becoming and even remaining a mostly bitcoin HODLer, even though for sure when we look back retrospectively we can see a lot of advantages for guys who had been historically erroring on the side of accumulating bitcoin and holding, and the trend is likely going to continue into the future even though sometimes it can also be challenging to go through the ongoing drama.. that also sometimes includes wondering how to manage our coins and if we might get cut off from our various ways to spend them.


Huh?  I don't get it.

Who died this time?

I looked up Thurl Arthur Ravenscroft, and he died in 2005.
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October 07, 2026, 05:02:14 PM


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October 07, 2026, 05:15:58 PM

Huh?  I don't get it.

Who died this time?

I looked up Thurl Arthur Ravenscroft, and he died in 2005.

Haha, my bad, I ran into it and thought it was today, DOH!

Slacking in my vetting. Cheesy

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October 07, 2026, 06:01:33 PM

So the new crash has begun right on cue from Og Nasty

We got as low as 83.3k hours after he predicted the new drop.

Thank god I am diverse and have 100 shares of spacex

My guess is spacex reaches $500 a share way sooner than BTC reaches 128k



Hey JJG am I kidding and poking you for a response?

Or is Og really smarter than most of us?



Not to shit on BTC but I am thinking  it is a tired asset , well time will tell.

The market can't go up forever.  This short term top was an easy call.  Much harder was the top call when everyone was saying we were headed to a million.

It is still too early to say how far we will correct.  Right now it looks like there is some decent support around the $76K area but with STRC back near $100 I wouldn't doubt if we saw Saylor start scooping up more BTC that he gets to sell BTC later to pay 12% interest on...  I am actually curious how the next cycle is going to go.  If STRC really does perform as some people think, the boom and bust will be like something we've never seen before. 

I'd like to see a retest of the lows before marching above $100K to feel good about the market, but with each passing day that becomes less likely and more dependent upon a black swan event.
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October 07, 2026, 06:05:47 PM

Jesus so torn.

 Og or jjg?

I am trying to straddle the two positions.
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October 07, 2026, 06:34:36 PM

The 4 years cycle is just a model and not a law, anything can happen in the market and the upper walk on price of Bitcoin maybe a smoky ascending order before a clear signal.

I think that there are quite a few of us who have bought into the idea of cycles ever since we have been in bitcoin (including but not limited to yours truly), yet at the same time, some of the ideas of cycles have evolved over the years too.
The 4 cycles may be seen as a model that illustrate how the price of Bitcoin moves from year to year which I think it's cool but I will not conclude that the price of Bitcoin will consistently follow the same model forever.

Things can change based on societal input and government regulations on crypto. This is not to conclude that the government has full control over crypto but with the laws that are being set aside, it can influence the mindset of some investors to buy or wait for big news that will trigger the price of Bitcoin. I still have the dogma that change is constant and investors need to be ready to embrace it at anytime.

Perhaps a tension that might exist relates to how we treat our bitcoin investment in light of whether cycles exist or not, and even if we might recognize the existence of bitcoin cycles it has been quite difficult to try to trade on them, and many times an overwhelming majority of bitcoiners have tended to be way better off if they had errored on the side of ongoing accumulation and HODL, at least until they get to a point of having had accumulating enough or more than enough bitcoin, and so it seems problematic to try to trade the cycle, especially for guys who are trying to trade the cycle in order to accumulate more bitcoin, when they have not yet gotten to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin.
Trying to invest based on the 4 years cycle can be confusing or misleading when price choose to go the other way round. The price of Bitcoin has gone up while the 4 years cycle investors can likewise think that it's not yet to invest since they believe that this is a bear season.

I am open to learning if I am wrong because I know that people like you have been into Bitcoin for years before me and you have couples of experience on different cycles and must have accumulate enough Bitcoin through all these years.

Even in your case @Mummy OS, you have ONLY been registered here for less than 1.5 years, so I have a hard time imagining any ability to really meaningfully stack bitcoin during that time, and for sure, as I already suggested, I continue to not be a fan of trying to trade bitcoin in order to attempt to expedite the accumulation of bitcoin.

So, hopefully for your own good, you are not going to get sucked into the lure of the 4 year cycle in terms of trying to trade upon it rather than ongoingly, persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively accumulating bitcoin through buying (or earning) only methods.
I have seen people trade Bitcoin but they often have this problem of giving back their profits to the market.
Someone can make a thousand dollar today and lose the entire money by next weekend. Trading is not often rosy like what we are seeing on social media and what individual traders are posing so to attract newbies they are going to fine to buy their signals or their courses.

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October 07, 2026, 07:18:13 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Huh?  I don't get it.

Who died this time?

I looked up Thurl Arthur Ravenscroft, and he died in 2005.

Haha, my bad, I ran into it and thought it was today, DOH!

Slacking in my vetting. Cheesy

*deleted.

Shit happens. 🤪

(Well.. Until it don't)
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October 07, 2026, 07:23:40 PM

Jesus so torn.

 Og or jjg?

I am trying to straddle the two positions.

Torn between holding through the crash and dumping 4% of your stack at the bottom, or dumping a chunk of your stack at the top and DCA'ing it back at the bottom?

Hmm...  Seems like a tough call.  I hope this next cycle you get it figured out.  If we are having these same debates in 2029 after how vocal I was trying to keep people from getting wrecked this cycle I am going to lose it.  LOL  Smiley
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October 07, 2026, 08:17:46 PM

OT: 30-year mortgages are almost 7.5% rn (7.49% to be exact).
Wow...no wonder that people are reluctant to sell their low % mortgaged house for a newer one on a much higher %.
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October 07, 2026, 08:57:07 PM
Merited by OgNasty (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

[...]

I think that there are quite a few of us who have bought into the idea of cycles ever since we have been in bitcoin (including but not limited to yours truly), yet at the same time, some of the ideas of cycles have evolved over the years too.

Perhaps a tension that might exist relates to how we treat our bitcoin investment in light of whether cycles exist or not, and even if we might recognize the existence of bitcoin cycles it has been quite difficult to try to trade on them, and many times an overwhelming majority of bitcoiners have tended to be way better off if they had errored on the side of ongoing accumulation and HODL, at least until they get to a point of having had accumulating enough or more than enough bitcoin, and so it seems problematic to try to trade the cycle, especially for guys who are trying to trade the cycle in order to accumulate more bitcoin, when they have not yet gotten to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin.

It can take years and years and years to get to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin, and surely it seems that guys who are getting into bitcoin later and later are likely to run into a bit of a problem in regards to bitcoin's price curve becoming less and less steep with the passage of time...and so it may well end up taking way longer to both stack enough bitcoin and to be advantaged by bitcoin's seemingly built in compounding effects.

[...]

Yes, that's true.

Cycles do exist, no matter what anyone says. They're hard-coded in the Bitcoin code (divide by 210,000). Their influence on Bitcoin is progressively diminished -- again, hard-coded (right-shift reward amount).

Cycles have helped me optimize the timing of my buy orders over the last 12 years or so. I've never sold based on cycles though. But then again, I've never sold any significant amount of Bitcoin, ever. It's far too precious to sell.

Any buy is good.
Some are better than others.
Re-Animal Farm!

#replyku
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October 07, 2026, 09:23:22 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

I took a dive into the lab for a couple of days, because what was beginning with a quick idea ended in a hyperfocusing spiral of death.
3D Builder is a program delivered for free with Windoze 11. It's some kind of a stripped down CAD app, which i was using habitually in the last few years for designing 3D print models. But dude, this shit is sooo buggy. Rendering crashes, incompatibilities, jagged edges and faces after boolean operations, geometrical calculation errors, processing freezes... So i lost my patience with this shit and jumped right into Blender (a real CAD/CAM). The learning curve was a little steep at the beginning, but that is also what often drives me to climb it. After two or three days, i am sitting here with the second version of a double-faced pop filter (for reducing plosive noises when talking in a microphone at close distance). It's a three piece thing, with a 5/8" thread mount and a swivel. I used such pop filter screens mostly with AKG C414 microphones in the studios, AKG was manufacturing these.
On the way to this, i modeled and printed embossed bar-endcaps for a motorcycle, and some other, bulkier but smaller (108mm vs. 154mm) version of a dual pop filter, with a specific mount and adjustable arms suited to the "Podmic" (by Rode). I ordered a CK12 single sided capsule by "accident" to repair an old large diaphragm condenser microphone, which i could also use for instruments. I don't have a mic stand (yet) and no, i won't print one for myself  Tongue Cheesy
The second, more advanced version of the pop filter was destined as a birthday present to a man who is talking almost only to microphones. I'm glad that i made it a day and a half ahead, but i may want to add some little extra, which could be only the first in a row...

The thing that made me switch to Blender because 3D Builder gave up on it was something completely different, but i couldn't stop diving into practicing modeling solutions, at least i have got some basic experience, and i generally know 2D/3D maths. Now that the thing is done, all my energy and drive is lost, and that state is gonna stay for a while.
However, it's cool being older and still have the drive lack of impulse control to happily jump right into new challenges (and not try to wreck yourself on the way through).

I may post a few pics soon, i'm too exhausted now, i need to get back some lost hours of sleep and i'm already writing this post for at least 10 minutes.
Hope you are all doing well, too.

EDIT: changed and appended some things
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October 07, 2026, 09:54:43 PM

I took a dive into the lab for a couple of days, because what was beginning with a quick idea ended in a hyperfocusing spiral of death.
3D Builder is a program delivered for free with Windoze 11. It's some kind of a stripped down CAD app, which i was using habitually in the last few years for designing 3D print models. But dude, this shit is sooo buggy. Rendering crashes, incompatibilities, jagged edges and faces after boolean operations, geometrical calculation errors, processing freezes... So i lost my patience with this shit and jumped right into Blender (a real CAD/CAM). The learning curve was a little steep at the beginning, but that is also what often drives me to climb it. After two or three days, i am sitting here with the second version of a double-faced pop filter (for reducing plosive noises when talking in a microphone at close distance). It's a three piece thing, with a 5/8" thread mount and a swivel. I used such pop filter screens mostly with AKG C414 microphones in the studios, AKG was manufacturing these.
On the way to this, i modeled and printed embossed bar-endcaps for a motorcycle, and some other, bulkier but smaller (108mm vs. 154mm) version of a dual pop filter, with a specific mount and adjustable arms suited to the "Podmic" (by Rode). I ordered a CK12 single sided capsule by "accident" to repair an old large diaphragm condenser microphone, which i could also use for instruments. I don't have a mic stand (yet) and no, i won't print one for myself  Tongue Cheesy
The second, more advanced version of the pop filter was destined as a birthday present to a man who is talking almost only to microphones. I'm glad that i made it a day and a half ahead, but i may want to add some little extra, which could be only the first in a row...

The thing that made me switch to Blender because 3D Builder gave up on it was something completely different, but i couldn't stop diving into practicing modeling solutions, at least i have got some basic experience, and i generally know 2D/3D maths. Now that the thing is done, all my energy and drive is lost, and that state is gonna stay for a while.
However, it's cool being older and still have the drive lack of impulse control to happily jump right into new challenges (and not try to wreck yourself on the way through).

I may post a few pics soon, i'm too exhausted now, i need to get back some lost hours of sleep and i'm already writing this post for at least 10 minutes.
Hope you are all doing well, too.

EDIT: changed and appended some things

3D printing a pop filter seems wrong (but cool). Back in my day we used a coat hanger and some pantyhose.

I’m a little jealous of those that are into the 3D printing hobby. I’ve always wanted to get into it. I’m also glad I haven’t, because I can only imagine the amount of time I would lose to it.
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October 07, 2026, 10:50:41 PM
Last edit: October 07, 2026, 11:13:11 PM by d_eddie

I may post a few pics soon,

Please do! Interesting to see a homemade pop filter design.

3D printing a pop filter seems wrong (but cool). Back in my day we used a coat hanger and some pantyhose.

Those were the days.  Now the geeks use a 3D-printer and... wait - @OutofMemory it's just the frame you're printing, right?
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