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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27064210 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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October 09, 2026, 10:02:15 AM


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October 09, 2026, 11:02:19 AM


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October 09, 2026, 11:11:46 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), OutOfMemory (1)

DOS was inspired by CP/M, a product by DEC Digital Equipment Corporation that ran on Z80 or 8080 based systems: 8 bit microprocessors. Archaeology. Unix did exist but was only used in academic circles at the time. DOS was born on the 8088, a hybrid architecture: 16 bit internal processor, but an 8 bit data bus.

DEC went bust an age ago. They made VAX computers and the VMS OS.

As for BSD, it's somehow still alive: its "linux equivalent" FreeBSD is still the system of choice for several NAS OSes. And the original MacOS was based more on BSD than on System V.
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October 09, 2026, 11:16:49 AM

Well, I funded my trading bot right before the crash so it's performance isn't great at the moment and I've been bug fixing instead of focusing on the trading algorithm, but it is still performing pretty well given what just happened to the market.  If anyone wants to take a look...

DeFi Trading Bot + Dashboard: https://degen.nastycab.com/

How much did you give the boy to play with initially? What are the 3 steps in the balance graph: gains or new deposits?
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October 09, 2026, 11:18:37 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Hahaha, someone vibe coded all of Adobe's apps and open sourced it !!!

https://getartcraft.com/apps

Fork and download it before MicroSlop nixes it on git.

Hard to kill an open source project that's already out there. Github might be in the wrong hands, but other similar hubs are not. Here are a few: Codeberg, Forgejo (you can run your own server too. Tor might be inconvenient, but it does work. Good luck shutting THAT down), SourceHut, GitLab.

Besides, if it's just a look-and-feel matter, it's not guaranteed to stand up in court. At any rate, I think Adobe can sleep safely given the number of ensnared subscription customers that depend on specific UI arrangements or workflows. Try to convert a hardened Office user to anything Free (or Libre) and you'll see what I mean.

The amount of nix users still shackled to winblows because of adobe is astounding, we are going to see abode stock tank.

I tried PDFCraft, but it's still pretty basic. It doesn't seem to offer much in terms of PDF editing. I think Stirling PDF offers far more features, and it's open source too. However, I'm not a fan of how they've combined the self-hosted Docker version and the online service under the same interface.

Other tools, like PhotoCraft, aren't particularly impressive either. If you've used GIMP, you already know how much of the Photoshop experience it can offer for free.

But here's the interesting part: with the rise of AI, I think these models are becoming capable of performing editing tasks that traditional photo editors would require much more manual effort to accomplish.

And it's not just photo editing anymore. Look at this:

https://x.com/Solvaix/status/2107934133402194125

How Claude drew a two-floor house in AutoCAD: 524 elements in just 88.6 seconds.

At this rate, Adobe might have more to worry about from AI than from open-source alternatives. 😄
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October 09, 2026, 11:47:45 AM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-08 (Evening Edition)
6. Bitcoin ETFs bleed $484.9 million in worst day since June
URL: https://decrypt.co/380490/bitcoin-etfs-worst-outflow-since-june-UpTober-red
Published: 2026-10-08 12:46 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million in a single day on Oct. 7, the worst outflow since June 25, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $207.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC at $105.1 million. The session erased roughly 81% of the previous nine days of inflows, though the funds still hold $57.8 billion in cumulative net inflows. Bitcoin slid as low as $81,749.83 on Thursday, about 6% below the $86,978 peak hit earlier in the week, and roughly $429 million in derivatives positions were liquidated over 24 hours, 87.5% of them long bets. The outflows came as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.7%, its highest since 2002, and Brent crude settled near $100 a barrel. Fed minutes from September show most officials expect another rate hike before year end, and the funds are now down $163.3 million for October after opening with $321.6 million of inflows over four sessions.

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 These banks holding these bunshs of Treasury debt that does not stop growing, desperate, speculate with the price of Bitcoin trying to remedy a possible future avalanche that if one starts selling these papers, do not expect that others will not do the same.



 This large-scale speculation tires any monetary asset until they exhaust their cash,
 but I personally think that Bitcoin will take revenge for it,
despite seeming like an ally of these top hat guys.
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October 09, 2026, 12:02:18 PM


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October 09, 2026, 01:56:05 PM

82.7k crab dinner anyone.

I will be making some nice crab salad for lunch.

I will post a few photos.

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October 09, 2026, 02:04:35 PM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-09 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-09 09:04 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding higher on Friday, up 0.6% over 24 hours, but the tape still feels heavy after a 2.4% slide over 7 days. ETF investors are not helping, pulling another $244 million from U.S. funds on Thursday as the two-day outflow tally neared $1 billion. Fear & Greed sits at 59 in Greed, yet the 8-point drop over the past week suggests conviction is fading fast.

Outlook: Watch whether ETF outflows extend into a third session, since Fidelity's $197 million exit on Thursday shows large buyers are still retreating. The difficulty adjustment is another test, as a 4.67% jump in mining pressure could squeeze hashprice just as miners absorb weaker revenue.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $82,602.00, up 0.60% over 24 hours and down 2.4% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +3 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Sellers still hold the upper hand into the weekly close, but the grip is loosening. Price has reclaimed $82,000 after testing the $79,000 support earlier in the week, and buyers defended that level, yet the seven-day trend remains lower. The $79,000 floor is the line that matters: holding it keeps the recovery intact, while losing it opens the door to $75,500. A daily close above $86,500 would flip control to buyers and put $89,500 in play. Until then, rallies are corrective inside a downtrend, and the modest bounce today does not change that read.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $79,000 (33%): triggers: Bitcoin holds above $79,000 through Friday, with price chopping between $79,000 and $86,500 while sentiment stays near the current Greed reading of 59. Invalidation: a daily close below $79,000 within five trading days.
- Upside Reclaim of $86,500 (12%): triggers: buyers drive a daily close above $86,500 within five trading days, extending the bounce off $79,000 and targeting $89,500. Invalidation: price fails to close above $86,500 and drops back below $82,000 by Friday.
- Downside Break to $75,500 (55%): triggers: sellers push a daily close below $79,000 within five trading days, reversing the bounce and sending price toward $75,500. Invalidation: buyers defend $79,000 and price closes back above $82,000 by Friday.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- ETF bleed: Fidelity's FBTC led withdrawals with $197 million in exits on Thursday, while BlackRock's IBIT slipped $5.5 million, keeping the pressure on funds after a two-day stretch neared $1 billion.

TOP STORIES

1. F2Pool Co-Founder Bets $19M on Ether as Bitcoin Slides
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/f2pool-co-founder-wang-chun-swaps-wbtc-for-ether
Published: 2026-10-09 06:30 AM CT
Summary: A wallet tied to F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun sold 235.5 WBTC worth $19.31 million for 7,848.5 ETH on Oct. 9, right after bitcoin dropped to $80.5K overnight. The swap continued a pattern that began in June 2026, when the wallet bought 11,448.4 ETH at about $1,690 and 224.66 WBTC at about $62,554 for a combined $33.41 million. Ether now trades near $2,500, roughly 47% above the June buy price. The some shitcoin/BTC ratio has climbed from a 2026 low of 0.0248 in June to about 0.0302, still below the 0.0335 level where it opened the year. Analyst EmberCN flagged the latest trade, which came as more than $1.1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated and some shitcoin liquidations reached $350 million on Oct. 8, ahead of bitcoin's $304 million.

2. EDX Markets and VerifiedX Partner to Bring Verified Bitcoin (vBTC) to Institutional Markets
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/edx-markets-and-verifiedx-partner-to-bring-verified-bitcoin-vbtc-to-institutional-markets
Published: 2026-10-08 11:53 AM CT
Summary: VerifiedX and EDX Markets announced a partnership to bring Verified Bitcoin (vBTC), a tokenized form of Bitcoin, to EDX for institutional spot trading. EDX will join the VerifiedX network as a validator, gaining direct participation in network validation and governance. VerifiedX designed vBTC as a programmable, one-to-one backed Bitcoin asset, and the company makes the bitcoin backing verifiable on-chain at a granular level. The partnership aims to support trading, cross-market arbitrage, treasury mobility, borrowing, lending, and yield strategies built around Bitcoin-backed capital. Jay Pollak, Head of Strategy at the VerifiedX Foundation, said Bitcoin needs infrastructure that allows the asset itself to do more, and EDX joining as a validator connects institutional trading infrastructure directly with the network underneath the asset.

3. Bitcoin Prices Hit by ETF Selling as 2-Day Outflows Near $1 Billion
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-ether-prices-hit-etf-selling-2-day-outflows-near-1-billion
Published: 2026-10-09 08:37 AM CT
Summary: U.S. bitcoin ETFs lost $244.13 million on Thursday, following heavy withdrawals the day before, as combined two-day outflows from bitcoin and some shitcoin funds reached roughly $965 million. Fidelity's FBTC led bitcoin selling with $197.09 million in exits, while BlackRock's IBIT slipped $5.54 million and Franklin's EZBC was the lone buyer at $4.71 million. Some shitcoin ETFs extended their losing streak to eight sessions with $72.54 million in redemptions, driven by BlackRock's ETHA at $71.12 million. Bitcoin traded below $82,800, down more than 4% over the last week, while it dropped more than 9% to near $2,485. Some pockets held firm as some different shitcoin ETFs added $8.17 million and Bitwise's ETF pulled in $4.04 million for yet another different shitcoin, but funds for still another different shitcoin, one more different shitcoin, and a fifth different shitcoin stayed under pressure.

4. Sam Altman-backed bitcoin life insurer Meanwhile raises $37.5 million round led by Bain Capital Crypto
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/deals/2026-10-09-sam-altman-backed-bitcoin-life-insurer-meanwhile-raises-37-5-million-round-led-by-bain-capital-crypto-418131
Published: 2026-10-09 05:32 AM CT
Summary: Meanwhile raised $37.5 million from existing investors led by Bain Capital Crypto, bringing total funding to more than $180 million. Haun Ventures, Framework Ventures, Pantera Capital, Apollo, Northwestern Mutual Future Ventures, and Morgan Creek Digital also joined the round. The Bermuda-based insurer reported 1,183 BTC in total assets at the end of 2025, up more than fivefold from a year earlier, along with 759 BTC in statutory capital and surplus. Its BTC Life 1-Pay policy requires a single premium paid in bitcoin and provides a guaranteed death benefit in the cryptocurrency, letting policyholders borrow up to 90% of the value after the first year. The company has signed 15 brokers serving wealthy families in Singapore, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Switzerland as it expands outside the U.S.

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October 09, 2026, 02:59:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), machasm (1)

I doubt any of the experienced WO members use Ledger HW, but if any still exist maybe they will finally realize how bad a choice it is. So far, $86 million in various cryptocurrencies have been hacked, and some users claim they did nothing but receive transactions on their devices.

When you have a device that can remotely extract your seed and share it with third parties... (that's probably not the case here, but it's a fact)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5596352.0
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October 09, 2026, 03:44:04 PM
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As for Windows, there was no other operating system of that era to draw inspiration from.


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October 09, 2026, 03:49:38 PM

I was quite a fan of OSX, because of the underlying BSD implementation. Dropping this subsystem more and more with ongoing generations, i ditched the whole ecosystem after OSX 10.6 "snow leopard", because the system wasn't really controllable via terminal windows anymore.

The IBM deal of Bill Gates was the black swan in Unix history, because otherwise windows would have had the popularity of BeOS (for example).
Anyway, most of the tech in Windows was "inspired" by Unix/GNU standard software, protocols and services.
Unix didn't really deserve that kind of evolutional "extinction" in any way.

As
You have a point because being the best  doesn't always mean you will win the market. Sometimes, it ismore about timing, business decisions, and who gets the upper hand early on. Unix may have lost some of its place in the mainstream, but its influence is still everywhere, especially through Linux and BSD. I guess the real question is whether the best technology actually wins, or whether the best business strategy does.
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October 09, 2026, 04:02:19 PM


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October 09, 2026, 04:51:05 PM

Well, I funded my trading bot right before the crash so it's performance isn't great at the moment and I've been bug fixing instead of focusing on the trading algorithm, but it is still performing pretty well given what just happened to the market.  If anyone wants to take a look...

DeFi Trading Bot + Dashboard: https://degen.nastycab.com/

How much did you give the boy to play with initially? What are the 3 steps in the balance graph: gains or new deposits?

It says the amount deposited under the total balance. It is down a bit at the moment, but significantly less than the market. I have quite a bit more work to do on the actual trading algorithm. Most of my time so far has been getting this working from scratch, streamlining efficiency, working on the animations, and fixing all the bugs with the dashboard which is mostly completed now. Over time it will do well. The volume numbers are going to get crazy and I’ll keep the deposits flowing…

The funny thing is, going through all the numbers and doing backtesting has only showed me more clearly that Bitcoin outperforms all. You are already seeing this in the bot, as it has sold off most of it’s BTC to take profits.
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October 09, 2026, 06:20:18 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2026, 06:39:16 PM by OutOfMemory
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), jojo69 (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

I was quite a fan of OSX, because of the underlying BSD implementation. Dropping this subsystem more and more with ongoing generations, i ditched the whole ecosystem after OSX 10.6 "snow leopard", because the system wasn't really controllable via terminal windows anymore.

The IBM deal of Bill Gates was the black swan in Unix history, because otherwise windows would have had the popularity of BeOS (for example).
Anyway, most of the tech in Windows was "inspired" by Unix/GNU standard software, protocols and services.
Unix didn't really deserve that kind of evolutional "extinction" in any way.

As for Windows, there was no other operating system of that era to draw inspiration from. Bill Gates focused on creating something people would buy, even if it wasn’t necessarily an efficient or secure OS. I remember that in the ’90s and early 2000s, Windows was synonymous with how not to make software, and a barrage of criticism rained down on it from all sides.

As for the decline of Unix, the average user today simply wouldn’t be able to handle it, as it would be too complicated for them. Even Ubuntu is considered complicated by many these days, despite how much this Linux distribution has adapted over the years to cater to the spoiled user.

As for BSD, it’s really only for a handful of enthusiasts these days, not counting the professionals who install it on servers for work.



Sorry, but that is BS, imo.
Here's to some details:

1. The original IBM Dollar-deal took place with MS-DOS, when Windows wasn't even a wet dream in Steve Ballmer's pants. Bill was a salesman, never a creator or developer. Windows was designed to "look like" a serious OS (which is a joke, compared to what X and Apple delivered). Most of the enterprise features were built on technology established in Unix. No part of Windows ever had pioneer status.

2. Unix' decline didn't start with "today's average user". The average user from the 1980's were individuals that put their time and money into computing for reasons. The basic skills you had to learn to handle a PC required to gain so much background knowledge, and the knowledge grew for decades. Nowadays "average user" wouldn't have the capacity to integrate decades of knowledge, and that's why the "average user" of today is much more an "average loser". They are looking at a somewhat simplified abstraction of what goes on under the hood, while older users are tens of thousands of hours ahead in learning, and they also experienced all the transitions and small steps to what is current IT. Ask anyone up to the age of 30 who thinks he knows computers what a pipe or a socket is, or what the components of a hard drive are and how the "space" on it is organized.

Regardless, (i'm doing hard to focus right now), if OS development would have continued without Windows or DOS, Apple and the "Unices" would have developed at least the same comfortable interfaces and features, so that anybody with half a brain and enough money in the pockets would be able to operate a computer much like the same as nowaday's Windows. Don't get me started on Smartphones. Android wouldn't exist without Unix, and Microsoft's weak attempt at an OS for smartphones just failed. Maybe because they couldn't or didn't want to sell it for a Dollar per license or even for free, as an open-source project? Maybe because it was outgrown shit, like most of their proprietary software.

3. Ubuntu (etc) could have been designed to work the same like Windows (on the surface), but the laws regarding patents are making this impossible.

4. BSD is the name for stability. If one is a stability-enthusiast, he might be happily running BSD. The reasons are the same as those of professionals. Why exactly do you make a difference?

5. Don't confuse opinions with facts.


As for Windows, there was no other operating system of that era to draw inspiration from.




I had a C64-II running "Geos", which was like workbench's little brother, but also already with windows-like ambitions. 1987
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