Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lucius]

Maybe you know more, but it is a well-known fact that the US has not bought a single satoshi into its strategic reserves.

Nonetheless, that's BTC that aren't being dumped into the market. On the other hand, it's BTC that will eventually be dumped into the market (possibly maliciously) when somebody feels like it. On the upside, it's probably still easier to spend by printing fiat.

It's actually a double-edged sword, it's not a question of whether it will harm us, it's just a question of when. The next US administration may make a complete U-turn towards Bitcoin and decide to sell.

Rumors going around that the White House is considering buying more Bitcoin for the strategic reserve.

Maybe you know more,

Obviously I do, that’s why I shared the information.

It would be more accurate and correct if you wrote "The White House plans to buy Bitcoin for strategic reserves for the first time," because they haven't bought anything so far.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-16 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-16 09:05 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways into Friday, up 2.25% over 24 hours but still below its 30-day average of $83,150, and the Fear & Greed Index at 63 says greed even as the weekly trend deteriorates. The dominant story is institutional demand running on fumes: U.S. spot ETFs took in just $5.06 million on Thursday after roughly $146 million of net outflows across the past four sessions. This is not a recovery or a capitulation, it is a market waiting for a reason, with the marginal inflow yet to become durable.

Outlook: Watch whether the ETF flow picture stabilizes after four choppy sessions, since a second consecutive day of net inflows would be the first sign the de-risking has paused. The Cboe binary options tied to Coinbase, Robinhood and MARA performance metrics are set to list this month once clearing registration clears, a structural change worth tracking for how it channels institutional positioning. Options pricing around the $80,000 to $87,000 range into the midterms suggests participants expect a range-bound tape, so a break of either bound would carry more information than another day inside it.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $81,940.00, up 2.25% over 24 hours and down 0.7% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -0 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers hold the initiative at the moment, but the margin is thin. Price sits between support at $80,500 and resistance at $83,500, and the Fear & Greed reading of 63 signals greed without the momentum confirmation that usually accompanies it. That gap between sentiment and trend suggests the recent bounce may reflect positioning rather than conviction. A daily close below $80,500 would hand control to sellers and open the path toward $79,000, while a decisive break above $83,500 would confirm the upside case toward $84,500. The 30-day gain of 7.6% keeps the broader structure intact, so the burden of proof remains on the bears.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $80,500 (49%): The market chops between $80,500 and $83,500 through Friday, with greed sentiment at 63 persisting but momentum staying flat. This holds as long as daily closes stay above $80,500 and no decisive break of $83,500 materializes. Invalidation: a close below $80,500 within five trading days, or a close above $83,500 that forces a reassessment toward the upside case.
- Upside Break Toward $84,500 (20%): Buyers need to reclaim $83,500 on a daily close and hold it through Friday, converting the 30-day uptrend into a fresh leg higher. The 7.6% monthly gain gives this path some structural support, but the flat momentum composite suggests conviction is not yet broad. Invalidation: failure to close above $83,500 within five trading days, or a drop back below $80,500 after the break.
- Downside Re-test of $79,000 (31%): Sellers take control if price loses $80,500 on a daily close, targeting $79,000 as the next reference level. Greed at 63 can unwind quickly if the seven-day downtrend resumes, and the flat momentum composite offers no strong counterargument. Invalidation: a recovery back above $80,500 within five trading days that holds on a subsequent daily close.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Midterm macro window: Options markets are pricing a roughly $80,000 to $87,000 range into the US midterms, a scheduled political catalyst that sits underneath the current range-bound price action.
- Cboe clearing registration: Trading in the newly approved binary options cannot begin until Cboe Clear U.S. receives provisional registration, a regulatory gate that determines when the new listed contracts actually go live.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs Add Just $5M as Some Shitcoin Loses Another $60M
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-etf/bitcoin-etfs-add-just-5m-as-ether-loses-another-60m
Published: 2026-10-16 07:30 AM CT
Summary: U.S. bitcoin ETFs took in just $5.06 million on Thursday, with Blackrock's IBIT drawing $16.79 million while Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust lost $7.64 million and Invesco's BTCO shed $4.09 million. The category lost roughly $146 million across the past four sessions, swinging from a $65.40 million outflow Monday to a $175.62 million inflow Tuesday, a $261.46 million outflow Wednesday, then back to marginal gains. Some shitcoin ETFs lost another $60.22 million, led by $44.39 million out of Blackrock's ETHA and $18.28 million from Grayscale's ETHE, bringing four-day losses to roughly $250.29 million. Selling also spread to smaller funds, with some different shitcoin ETFs down $9.82 million for a ninth straight day of outflows, yet another different shitcoin funds losing $10.28 million, and still another different shitcoin shedding $14.76 million, while one more different shitcoin bucked the trend with a $1.13 million inflow. The pattern points to fragile institutional demand and continued de-risking heading into Friday, with bitcoin's marginal inflow yet to become durable.

2. SEC approves binary options tied to Coinbase, Robinhood and Marathon performance metrics
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/10/16/traders-will-soon-be-able-to-bet-on-whether-coinbase-robinhood-and-marathon-will-hit-their-targets
Published: 2026-10-16
Summary: The SEC approved a Cboe rule change allowing binary options tied to key performance indicators of 23 US-listed companies, including Coinbase trading volume, Robinhood customer count and revenue, and MARA Holdings bitcoin production. The contracts are cash-settled and European-style, exercisable only at expiration, and settle on figures in companies' SEC filings rather than earnings presentations. Cboe plans to list the contracts this month, with Robinhood expected to be the first brokerage offering them to retail investors, though trading cannot begin until Cboe Clear U.S. receives provisional registration. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the approval does not touch similar contracts overseen by the CFTC, such as those on Kalshi, and called it a new spirit of harmony between the agencies. Separately, bitcoin defended its 50-day simple moving average this week, briefly dipping below the level Thursday before recovering, and some analysts remain positioned for further upside.

3. Bitcoin faces an $8,000 trading trap as US midterms approach
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-faces-an-8000-trading-trap-as-us-midterms-approach
Published: 2026-10-16 04:40 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Oct. 15 after two hot inflation reports, with September CPI accelerating to 3.7% and producer prices jumping 1.3%, the largest monthly rise since March 2022. Sygnum strategist Can-Luca Kymen expects a range-bound market into the midterms, with options pricing roughly $80,000 to $87,000 over the coming month. Glassnode data places the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin held by US spot ETFs near $81,500, the six-to-12-month cohort's break-even near $88,000, and the True Market Mean near $78,000, with concentrated Binance spot bids around $80,000. Leverage has cooled, with modeled liquidation levels down more than 20% in a week, long-term holder realized losses about 85% below their Aug. 12 peak, and futures open interest down 6% over the past week. ETF flows reversed sharply, with a net $859 million leaving US spot funds over six sessions from Oct. 7 through Oct. 14, including $261.4 million on Oct. 14, after nearly $3 billion of inflows between Sept. 21 and Oct. 6.

4. Quantum Alliance forms amid warnings 6.4 million bitcoin face future quantum threat
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/16/experts-agree-quantum-computers-could-put-satoshi-s-bitcoin-at-risk-but-not-on-what-s-next
Published: 2026-10-16
Summary: Nine crypto companies launched the Quantum Alliance to develop common security standards for quantum-resistant systems across bitcoin, some shitcoin and other blockchains. The Alliance estimates 6.4 million bitcoin, or 30.2% of the supply, have publicly exposed keys, including 1.1 million attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, though no existing quantum computer can currently break the cryptography. Quantus CEO Christopher Smith said whoever builds the first cryptographically relevant quantum computer could take those coins, potentially with government backing. Timing remains disputed, with Postquant Labs CTO Richard Carback calling 2028 realistic while The Vault's Bryn Bennett said nobody knows the date. Proposals to freeze or move vulnerable coins, including one from Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, have drawn criticism over property rights and network neutrality, and any signature upgrade would require broad coordination across developers, miners, exchanges and wallet providers.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3

[Richy_T]

It's actually a double-edged sword, it's not a question of whether it will harm us, it's just a question of when. The next US administration may make a complete U-turn towards Bitcoin and decide to sell.

It doesn't even take a change in attitude TBH. The first thing the Biden administration did was reverse a bunch of Trump measures simply because Trump made them. Whether they were actually beneficial or not was immaterial.

It would be more accurate and correct if you wrote "The White House plans to buy Bitcoin for strategic reserves for the first time," because they haven't bought anything so far.

[d_eddie]

Holy shit… Flying car…
https://www.youtube.com/live/qt5p-_tE8d0?is=oHNHfyFND842SrgQ

Production in 2028…

It’d really really impressive don’t get me wrong
But I see more a car that just can’t crash from heights instead of real flying

I haven't even seen that, because they were talking all the friggin' 23 minutes and a quick scan of the timeline didn't reveal the juice -- I mean the likely 20 seconds of actual car footage.  If they want me to watch a 23-minute ad with some billionaire talking to some clown host, they'd better get their purse out.

Hey Elon, here's where: bc1fake9fakev9k2x8r5t3n4c7j9h2f5s8d3l60q

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lontor]

Looks like there is no point waiting around, I was thinking we can get 75k but that's also not certain, as a matter of fact it doesn't even matter because in the next two weeks I believe that 95k Bitcoin is going to be possible.

Things are looking pretty good from here out, I pity my friends they are all waiting on the sideline for 47k I did told them that it's impossible that we see that low price anymore, gone are the days where Bitcoin dips massively, we have ETFs and institutions now..

It's no more the COVID days, we are at the last great buying opportunity period, OCTOBER is going to be the final month and that's it, I'm glad to be part of this journey so far, I am happy for pulling the buying trigger since 60,000 BTC, best decision of my life so far.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

It would be more accurate and correct if you wrote "The White House plans to buy Bitcoin for strategic reserves for the first time," because they haven't bought anything so far.

They have Bitcoin in the reserve already. Any purchase would be adding more to it. Not reinventing the wheel here…

As a matter of fact I saw a car falling with style I didn't see no flying car 

You should watch the event. It does more than fall… It also doesn’t come out until 2028 and will have plenty more flying tricks by then. The real mood killer is that the rocket version is only available to purchase by invite, so it is likely impossible to own for regular folks (even rich ones).

[Cinexa]

But I see more a car that just can’t crash from heights instead of real flying
Anyway impressive and when 1 BTC = 1 Tesla roadster?

I am quite skeptical when it comes to testing new technology. I know he is a successful businessman and his company has did very well in the past, but as far as this particular technology is concerned, I have no desire to be the early bird and hop into a flying car. I also think that this was primarily designed for drag racers, to keep them safe in the event of an accident.

[JayJuanGee]

It's actually a double-edged sword, it's not a question of whether it will harm us, it's just a question of when. The next US administration may make a complete U-turn towards Bitcoin and decide to sell.

It doesn't even take a change in attitude TBH. The first thing the Biden administration did was reverse a bunch of Trump measures simply because Trump made them. Whether they were actually beneficial or not was immaterial.

You (@Richy_T) act as if you are describing a phenomena that applies ONLY to one party, or as if such a practice of targeted reversals in regards to changed parties ONLY just begun to take place in recent times.

 

Looks like there is no point waiting around, I was thinking we can get 75k but that's also not certain, as a matter of fact it doesn't even matter because in the next two weeks I believe that 95k Bitcoin is going to be possible.

Things are looking pretty good from here out, I pity my friends they are all waiting on the sideline for 47k I did told them that it's impossible that we see that low price anymore, gone are the days where Bitcoin dips massively, we have ETFs and institutions now..

It's no more the COVID days, we are at the last great buying opportunity period, OCTOBER is going to be the final month and that's it, I'm glad to be part of this journey so far, I am happy for pulling the buying trigger since 60,000 BTC, best decision of my life so far.

From my perspective, you sound a wee bit lost, @Lontor, as if Bitcoin is something to try to trade rather than to invest and/or like you are largely trying to buy bitcoin on the dip so that you can try to play cycles that may or may not end up working out to your advantage.

It tends to take years and years and years for guys to really build up meaningful bitcoin holdings - even guys who had advantages of building their bitcoin holdings prior to 2021, and even better yet prior to 2017 - and sure, at the same time, the longer that any of us has been in the better, even if the exact ending of BTC accumulation might still not be clear - since there are guys who have been in bitcoin for years and years and years (including longer than your 2022 entrance date, if we go by your forum registration) who are still ongoingly accumulating bitcoin through buying only methods and not fucking around trying to trade.

I, kind of, hate to bring up my earlier post regarding bitcoin price dynamics and my earlier concerns about having had been stuck in a price range that, at that time, did not quite fill my buy/sell orders... .. but, to me, it seems worthy of an update since in the past day-ish, I had been relieved of such anxiety, at least on the buying end, since my lower $80k buy orders had been executed in our bounce down to $79,694..and yeah, whether $79,694 will end up playing out as our local bottom is still to be determined - the next week (or two, or maybe longer, aka soon^TM) is critical.^TM

my earlier post

When 74k?
Better yet
When 59k?
If we hit 59k my cold card panic sale at 63k is savable.
At this point 57k or 91k is what I am looking for.

I would say getting below $70k would be quite surprising - even though I am not saying that it would be impossible to get that low.. even though it seems quite a bit of a fantasy to be assigning anything higher that 5% odds to something even lower, such as lower $60k or upper $50ks.

Many of you likely recall that since mostly 2015, I have been selling BTC within what I consider to be a price-based sustainable withdrawal system on the way up and buying with proceeds from the sales, to the extent that they exist, on the way down, so largely there is a kind of arguable downside insurance based-in to what I consider that I am doing, and in the early days those BTC sales on the way up were likely in the ballpark of 10-12% for every doubling (which seems large as fuck, right now), yet in recent times the sales on the way up have seemed to have come out to more like 3-4% for every doubling.. so yeah, I have already recognized my own practice to be ongoingly selling way too little bitcoin on the way up, which ongoingly remain psychological blockers for me...

...and yeah, I agree that a couple post back in this here famous thread, I was ragging (a wee bit) on AlcoHoDL's seemingly anti-selling statement (contained within a riddle) while at the same time my own being guilty (is it called being hypocritical?) of a similar kind of mental (and/or action) framework - namely my own ongoing reluctance to sell in meaningfully decent amounts of cornz, even though I have been ongoingly claiming that guys can get to stages of their bitcoin journey in which they have "enough" or "more than enough" bitcoin..^**

**By the way, here is a little more of a tangent.  In late-ish 2022, I did start to incorporate some variation of time-based sustainable withdrawal too. .. that contributes to my ongoingly selling of more bitcoin, in a kind of forced way - even though ONLY a relatively small portion of my total bitcoin holdings falls into that time-based sustainable withdrawal categorization... .arguably around 20% depending on how it is counted.

Ok. Back to the recent BTC price actions that inspired me to want to put together this here post.

I have been looking at our current BTC price correction of the last day or two (to the extent that we might characterize recent BTC price movements as a correction rather than a pausening in the UPpity), and sure in the past 2.5-ish weeks there had been two tests of the mid-$87ks, and I structure my BTC sell orders in such ways that I am supposed to not give much of a ratt's ass in regards to if BTC prices go up, down or sideways, which would also imply that I should not be giving too many shits whether sell orders fill and/or buy back orders end up filling.

At the same time, several times, I have mentioned that I get irritated if the BTC prices come within a relatively small amount (perhaps $100 or $200?) from my BTC order prices and then fail to execute before reversing into the other direction.. and yeah that is the case with me in the mid-$87ks and it is also true for me in slightly higher than $80k, so I have a current spread between my buy/sell orders that is slightly higher than $7k, yet my current increments are in the ballpark of $3k, so once the bitcoin buy/sell orders hit if the BTC price keeps going in the same direction, then the increments would be right around $3k before the next order would trigger, yet if BTC price reverses direction, the current spread is in the ballpark of $7.5k-ish...   The maximum spread comes when the BTC order is "almost" filled buy not quite filled, so currently there is a maximum of $7.5k-ish to play with when the price reverses directions.

so yeah.. 2.5 weeks with no action for this here cat, and I am not supposed to give any shits.. right?  twice almost, but not quite hitting the mid-$87ks, and then now our barely missing the lower $80ks... but yeah, I am not supposed to care, right?... bitcoin price go up, down or sideways?    Are we done visiting the lower $80ks yet or not?

Many guys likely realize that I do not root for down, but if the BTC price is going to go there anyhow, then I might as well shore up my insurance policy by having my buy order filled rather than having it almost, but not quite, filled.  No?

'nuff said for now.

As a matter of fact I saw a car falling with style I didn't see no flying car  

You should watch the event. It does more than fall… It also doesn’t come out until 2028 and will have plenty more flying tricks by then. The real mood killer is that the rocket version is only available to purchase by invite, so it is likely impossible to own for regular folks (even rich ones).

Your humor never stops.^**

hahahahaha

**Yes.  "We" know that uie poo-ie will be getting one.  You are like the sucker's sucker.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

But I see more a car that just can’t crash from heights instead of real flying
Anyway impressive and when 1 BTC = 1 Tesla roadster?

I am quite skeptical when it comes to testing new technology. I know he is a successful businessman and his company has did very well in the past, but as far as this particular technology is concerned, I have no desire to be the early bird and hop into a flying car. I also think that this was primarily designed for drag racers, to keep them safe in the event of an accident.

as long as the nozzles dont get ripped off first thing

its a cool blade runner look ngl. but getting sand blasted buy the high pressure blast debris from that lifting off next to you? ugh

now, fun on a track? oh yeah. how many air bag you think it has? now you need ass bags too

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Floczy]

As a matter of fact I saw a car falling with style I didn't see no flying car  

You should watch the event. It does more than fall… It also doesn’t come out until 2028 and will have plenty more flying tricks by then. The real mood killer is that the rocket version is only available to purchase by invite, so it is likely impossible to own for regular folks (even rich ones).

Yh I did get to watch it, and it actually flew (for quite a short distance tho) but I just wanted to add a little humor to the whole stuff that's why I said it that way  

Of cause if they release this car to everyone it will cause some problems to the society, these types of cars will need some adjustments to the whole road system, and society rules and regulations, if not.. you know how some humans are   they will take advantage of everything about the car regardless of their safety and the safety of others, so I see the reason why they will hold this version back.

Let's wait for the regular one and see what's left of all his promises

I had misread you too... and your clarification makes more sense - especially since it can take a while to get to a point of enough bitcoin to feel confident to pull the fuck you lever.  Tjere are a decently large number of guys who pull the fuck you lever too soon.. so there is a need to make sure that you have enough, even though so far in bitcoin's history, once a guy gets to a reasonably good fuck you status, bitcoin can be quite forgiving as long as you are correctly valuating. ..

Oh yes.

That's one reason why I'm still holding in man.
I'm so fed up with the fuck**n emotional, physical and mental demand the job requires, and most others jobs out there are also like that too, so its not that there is a better job out there if I quit this one.

Bitcoin is a good tool for financial freedom, but if I should leave this work at the wrong time.. I might get myself into a real difficult situation, let me guess..  I finish all the money, it forces me to sell some coins, I sell em, that one finishes, I sell more, holding reduce more and more until I'm left with nothing and I still have a long time to live in this earth 
As a matter of fact I still use the salary to accumulate more, but the fact that the job is stressful doesn't still change, I just need the money 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

I wonder what will happen to the new Tesla car when you activate suction while on a dirt road. It will probably turn into a giant vacuum cleaner and clog up in seconds...

As for the blowers, good luck doing air flips on a normal road used by normal drivers with normal cars...

I used to admire Elon, but his recent stunts have turned him into a clown. Or maybe an adult child with billions of dollars to waste.

[Richy_T]

You (@Richy_T) act as if you are describing a phenomena that applies ONLY to one party, or as if such a practice of targeted reversals in regards to changed parties ONLY just begun to take place in recent times.

This was unique in size and scope. Just like Biden's vote total.

[Richy_T]

now, fun on a track? oh yeah. how many air bag you think it has? now you need ass bags too

I wouldn't be surprised if it was stripped down to the minimum possible configuration for this stunt. Just like the Tesla Musk launched into space.

I don't have any complaints about that and the degree of control over the process was impressive. I just think people's expectations are a bit unrealistic.