Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Up, down or sideways?
We're watching 82k
She don't care a bit




#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-18 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-18 09:04 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways on a quiet Sunday, up just 0.07% over the past 24 hours while the Fear & Greed Index sits at neutral 53 after sliding 16 points in a week. The dominant story is CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju's floor thesis, which argues $30,000 would hold as support even if ETFs and treasury companies unwound their positions entirely. Price remains below the 30-day moving average of $83,464, and the seven-day trend is down 2.9%, so the market is drifting rather than recovering.

Outlook: Watch whether US spot ETF outflows, already past $900 million in the two weeks ending Oct. 16, accelerate or stabilize this week, since Ju's floor thesis hinges on those holders staying put. The Trump administration's waiver of new Russia-linked tariffs removes one inflation and funding pressure Fed Governor Waller had flagged, so any shift in that policy could matter for risk appetite. Weekend liquidity is thin, so moves in either direction may overstate the underlying trend until Monday volume returns.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $81,465.00, up 0.07% over 24 hours and down 2.9% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -3 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers lack conviction at these levels, but buyers have not stepped up either, and the tape reflects that standoff. The $79,500 support has held through a week of mild declines, which suggests dip buyers remain active below the market. Resistance at $83,500 caps every bounce attempt so far, and a close above it would signal that the risk-off regime is loosening. A break of $79,500 on a daily close would put the $77,500 target in play, while reclaiming $83,500 opens the path toward $85,500. Neutral sentiment at 53 on the Fear and Greed index offers no directional edge, so the next move likely comes from a decisive break of one of these two levels rather than from sentiment shifts.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $79,500 (44%): A daily close between $79,500 and $83,500 within five trading days, with the Fear and Greed index holding in the 45 to 55 band, keeps the market in its current range. This scenario holds if neither boundary breaks on a closing basis during that window. Invalidation: a daily close below $79,500 or above $83,500 within five trading days ends the consolidation read.
- Reclaim of $83,500 Toward $85,500 (17%): Buyers must push a daily close above $83,500 within five trading days, ideally alongside a Fear and Greed reading above 60, to confirm renewed demand. The move would need to follow through with a second close above that level to reach $85,500. Invalidation: failure to close above $83,500 within five trading days, or a close back below $81,000 after an initial breakout, voids the upside path.
- Downside Re-test of $77,500 (39%): A daily close below $79,500 within five trading days would confirm that support has failed under the current risk-off regime. Sellers would need to sustain pressure through a second close below that level to drive the market toward $77,500. Invalidation: a quick recovery that closes back above $81,000 within five trading days, or a hold of $79,500 on any daily close, keeps the downside scenario from playing out.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Tariff waiver: President Trump's order waiving new Russia-linked duties removes a cost pressure Fed Governor Waller had cited among inflation risks, easing one macro overhang on risk assets.

TOP STORIES

1. CryptoQuant CEO sees $30,000 Bitcoin floor even if ETFs and treasury firms exit
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/cryptoquant-ceo-sees-30000-bitcoin-floor-even-if-etfs-and-treasury-firms-exit
Published: 2026-10-18 07:30 AM CT
Summary: CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues Bitcoin would find support near $30,000 even if US spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed their $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows and public companies sold their entire 1.302 million BTC treasury holdings. His case rests on the MVRV ratio, which compares market price to the realized price of roughly $53,855, and a $30,000 price would put MVRV near 0.56, a level consistent with the worst historical bottoms near 0.6. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone countered with a $10,000 target, which would imply an MVRV near 0.19, well below any prior major bottom, and he ties the risk to rising bond yields, gold above $5,000, and a possible 20% equities drawdown. Ju also noted that investors who bought in 2019 have already survived two drawdowns of roughly 75%, so a fall to $10,000 would require that cohort to capitulate despite their track record. A fall from $82,000 to $30,000 would still erase about 63% of Bitcoin's value, and US spot ETFs have already recorded over $900 million in net outflows in the two weeks ending Oct. 16.

2. Trump waives new Russia tariffs as October 18 oil deadline arrives
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/trump-waives-new-russia-tariffs-as-october-18-oil-deadline-arrives
Published: 2026-10-18 08:00 AM CT
Summary: President Trump waived new Russia-linked duties in an October 16 order, keeping the additional tariffs from applying as the October 18 condition date arrives. The order implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 and specifies duties of 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from the five largest Russian oil and gas importers making new purchases on or after October 18, plus the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion. The waivers have no fixed expiry and remain effective until the president or secretary of state determines further action, and the order preserves earlier Russia-related sanctions under specified executive orders. The order names no countries in the two groups and directs the US trade representative and other officials to monitor Russian energy purchases and sanctions evasion. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had cited elevated energy costs and threatened tariffs among inflation pressures in an October 8 speech, and BIS research found US monetary tightening weakened crypto prices, so keeping the duties waived could ease one source of funding pressure on Bitcoin, which traded at $81,430.88, up 0.03% over 24 hours.

3. Trump's Treasury withdrew the crypto wallet rule his first term proposed
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/the-crypto-privacy-rule-trumps-treasury-proposed-and-trumps-treasury-buried
Published: 2026-10-18 02:00 AM CT
Summary: Steven Mnuchin's Treasury proposed a rule on Dec. 18, 2020 requiring banks and crypto exchanges to report self-custody wallet transactions above $10,000 and collect counterparty names and addresses for transactions above $3,000. The public received only 15 days to comment, most of it over the holidays, which drew objections from Coin Center and more than 7,500 total comments by mid-January 2021. FinCEN argued the short timeline was justified by national security concerns, citing transactions tied to North Korea's Lazarus Group, including at least 17 transfers above $10,000 between US institutions and wallets linked to the group in 2017 and 2018. Six years later, President Trump's second administration formally withdrew the proposal, an unusual reversal given both decisions came from administrations under the same president. Privacy advocates had argued the rule forced regulated businesses to collect identifying information about people who deliberately avoided intermediaries, since blockchain addresses reveal transactions but not the names or locations of wallet owners.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3

[Hueristic]

Up, down or sideways?
We're watching 82k
She don't care a bit




#haiku

[Floczy]

My personal predictions are...  price to take out liquidity which is at that 75k and after liquidity has been taken out I expect higher prices and a break of that 86-90k resistance.

But for now price is still at 81k, and is moving on a down trend

Oh?  Personal prediction. 

Down before up, you say?

Anything between about $70k-ish and $92k-ish seems like noise, even though surely getting down to $70k would likely be quite depressing for a lot of the longer term bitcoin holders who seem to be ready for up and not very interested in down (present company - royal - included).

Oh well, I do get your point, but it's these little movements that creates the bigger ones,

Probably market might be so Intrested in that 74k liquidity before it makes a very significant bull movement that will be very noticeable, and also to those folks that might be stressed about the consolidation, deley And dropping price can see it as probably a reason price acts this way, you know knowing price needs to get something lower before normal trend continues will wipe out stress or disappointments conserening dropping price, sometimes these are the reasons I analyse and it calms me down, and the market has also proven me right as well sometimes

[Danish Ali]

Up, down or sideways?
We're watching 82k
She don't care a bit




#haiku

Eighty-two, then flat
The chart stares back at me, blank
Still holding, still here

[Lucius]

~snip~
2. Trump waives new Russia tariffs as October 18 oil deadline arrives
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/trump-waives-new-russia-tariffs-as-october-18-oil-deadline-arrives
Published: 2026-10-18 08:00 AM CT
Summary: President Trump waived new Russia-linked duties in an October 16 order, keeping the additional tariffs from applying as the October 18 condition date arrives. The order implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 and specifies duties of 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from the five largest Russian oil and gas importers making new purchases on or after October 18, plus the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion. The waivers have no fixed expiry and remain effective until the president or secretary of state determines further action, and the order preserves earlier Russia-related sanctions under specified executive orders. The order names no countries in the two groups and directs the US trade representative and other officials to monitor Russian energy purchases and sanctions evasion. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had cited elevated energy costs and threatened tariffs among inflation pressures in an October 8 speech, and BIS research found US monetary tightening weakened crypto prices, so keeping the duties waived could ease one source of funding pressure on Bitcoin, which traded at $81,430.88, up 0.03% over 24 hours.

Conspiracy theorists would now say that Graham had to be removed at all costs because otherwise how would what is happening now be happening? One of the biggest advocates of Ukraine in the US collapsed and died a day after visiting that country. For those who like even bigger conspiracy theories, it should be remembered that a few months ago, one of the top US generals in Europe, General Chris Donahue, was replaced, and the one who replaced him is already playing to the tunes from the White House.

Some prominent Republicans called this move shameful and a betrayal of allies, and to this should be added the sabotage of Starlink in Ukraine and the cessation of intelligence sharing. However, as things stand, Ukraine cannot be blackmailed, Russian refineries are burning all over Russia - the latest one is in Saint Petersburg.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2111671184685461726

Maybe T should call the Iranians and ask for help - I hear they have plenty of fuel

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

~snip~
2. Trump waives new Russia tariffs as October 18 oil deadline arrives
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/trump-waives-new-russia-tariffs-as-october-18-oil-deadline-arrives
Published: 2026-10-18 08:00 AM CT
Summary: President Trump waived new Russia-linked duties in an October 16 order, keeping the additional tariffs from applying as the October 18 condition date arrives. The order implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 and specifies duties of 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from the five largest Russian oil and gas importers making new purchases on or after October 18, plus the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion. The waivers have no fixed expiry and remain effective until the president or secretary of state determines further action, and the order preserves earlier Russia-related sanctions under specified executive orders. The order names no countries in the two groups and directs the US trade representative and other officials to monitor Russian energy purchases and sanctions evasion. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had cited elevated energy costs and threatened tariffs among inflation pressures in an October 8 speech, and BIS research found US monetary tightening weakened crypto prices, so keeping the duties waived could ease one source of funding pressure on Bitcoin, which traded at $81,430.88, up 0.03% over 24 hours.

Conspiracy theorists would now say that Graham had to be removed at all costs because otherwise how would what is happening now be happening? One of the biggest advocates of Ukraine in the US collapsed and died a day after visiting that country. For those who like even bigger conspiracy theories, it should be remembered that a few months ago, one of the top US generals in Europe, General Chris Donahue, was replaced, and the one who replaced him is already playing to the tunes from the White House.

Some prominent Republicans called this move shameful and a betrayal of allies, and to this should be added the sabotage of Starlink in Ukraine and the cessation of intelligence sharing. However, as things stand, Ukraine cannot be blackmailed, Russian refineries are burning all over Russia - the latest one is in Saint Petersburg.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2111671184685461726

Maybe T should call the Iranians and ask for help - I hear they have plenty of fuel

I have spoken and written to you about the war.

I have a 22 year long Russian friend and a 32 year long Ukrainian friend. We used to eat dinner together often and talk about audio   and speakers.

The speaker club is ended and I visit them separately now.

Here is hoping this ends sooner than later as many are hurt and killed that have zero desire to fight. They simply want to dance and have a good time.

I have never understood the darker part of being human. But Some political figures do and use it far too often.

Back to btc I backed off and diversified into silver gold spacex along with btc ltc doge and  solana.

I am waiting to see if Trump voids the elections and does martial law if so I will likely stick with the diverse plan.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

A tumbleweed week.
Expected, but still boring.
Got to wait it out.

Ledger strikes again.
First, it was the leaked emails.
Now, it's tampering!

Satoshi's alive.
He's just lost his private keys,
As have all of us!

Cars drive, rockets fly,
And vacuum cleaners suck.
Enter The Roadster!

Well, I'm not impressed.
A cynical realist?
Well, maybe I am.

It's not AI bots.
It's Operating Thetans,
Making OT posts!

Biting heads off bats?
That's a sorry way to go.
I mean, for the bat!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[Findingnemo]

Cars fly and Satoshi's alive, people who once thought something is impossible is happening already.

About the roadster, I thought it's just another AI video that is created to confuse us but not it is happening for real and I am eagerly waiting to see them hitting the roads. Interesting part is Elon mentioned about using rocket engines on his Tesla cars in the year 2018 itself.

[Hueristic]

Cars fly and Satoshi's alive, people who once thought something is impossible is happening already.

About the roadster, I thought it's just another AI video that is created to confuse us but not it is happening for real and I am eagerly waiting to see them hitting the roads. Interesting part is Elon mentioned about using rocket engines on his Tesla cars in the year 2018 itself.

You could get a rocket kit for a volkswagen in the 60's, its nothing new.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Cinexa]

Guys,

I finally released the full version of https://cinexa.net
I would appreciate your feedback and opinion about these tools for Bitcoin, and BitcoinTalk.
Ann Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5597241.0

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[Findingnemo]

Cars fly and Satoshi's alive, people who once thought something is impossible is happening already.

About the roadster, I thought it's just another AI video that is created to confuse us but not it is happening for real and I am eagerly waiting to see them hitting the roads. Interesting part is Elon mentioned about using rocket engines on his Tesla cars in the year 2018 itself.

You could get a rocket kit for a volkswagen in the 60's, its nothing new.

Strapping a rocket engine and integrating 8 rockets inside the car isn't the same, but it remind me something, just like blockchain existed long before Bitcoin while Satoshi was the one who successfully implemented it into something useful amd gave us a usable product. I am not saying Elon is Satoshi just creating one more conspiracy theory for the internet.

[OutOfMemory]

I remember telling you guys i wanted to make a photo from a regular astrophotography stack of mine, where the end result was to show the many satellites trailing over the images more often than just occasionally. The lower the target in the sky, the less time after dawn, the more likely a satellite reflecting the sun crosses the imaging frame.
Well, turned out it's too hard to do, for reasons, and also because i was "too lazy" to combat the technical obstacles directly associated with most of those reasons.

But, i recently found a manual edit on the www, which was 45 hours of just masking and copy/pasting satellite trails from 578 photographs made in two hours into one picture. A crazy amount of work and commitment, resulting in a great picture. (Copyright by Brendan Larsen from Brendan Larsen Photography.)



EDIT: I decided to add a little more info.
The pic was taken with a full spectrum modded DSLR and a wide angle lens, one pic for the foreground, a couple of stacked pics for the stars and the majority of shots for capturing satellite trails. The streaks are having this dashed look to them, because the DSLR isn't as fast in processing and saving the long exposure images to the memory card, and it can't have the shutter open while doing this, so there is a pause between the shots. With an uncooled sensor like this, unlike the high efficency sensors in dedicated astronomy cameras, you have to add a few seconds to let the sensor cool down, otherwise you'd get increasing thermal noise in the exposures and this is something that is hard to control. With stacked long exposures you want consistent noise patterns, so you can compute the noise out later, otherwise it would build up in the stacked result. You do this by capturing various types of noise in 30+ calibration frames, which then get stacked together and substracted from the actual target exposures (the easy explanation). This is why you have to have the sensor at a constant, lower than environmental temperature, using a Peltier element glued to the back. A low vibration fan finally extracts the transfer heat and makes sure other parts of the camera body won't get warmed up and introduce thermal shifting problems. This gets pauses between exposures down to below a second with fast USB3 interfaces on-camera.

That's it. For the more technically interested wall observer.

[Hueristic]

Cars fly and Satoshi's alive, people who once thought something is impossible is happening already.

About the roadster, I thought it's just another AI video that is created to confuse us but not it is happening for real and I am eagerly waiting to see them hitting the roads. Interesting part is Elon mentioned about using rocket engines on his Tesla cars in the year 2018 itself.

You could get a rocket kit for a volkswagen in the 60's, its nothing new.

Strapping a rocket engine and integrating 8 rockets inside the car isn't the same, but it remind me something, just like blockchain existed long before Bitcoin while Satoshi was the one who successfully implemented it into something useful amd gave us a usable product. I am not saying Elon is Satoshi just creating one more conspiracy theory for the internet.

That is not Satoshi's claim to fame, solving the Generals dilemma is.

Bitcoin is just the first implementation.

Comparing a man who put the worlds need over his own enrichment to a Nepo baby twisting every rule he can find to enrich himself is a fucking insult to the mans legacy.

But you go right ahead and keep enlightening us.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com