Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

42

HBD?

Nah...

Only 42 BTC left to complete his 100 BTC bag. 😂₿

[Danish Ali]

ChartBuddy missed an update. Someone check if the bot is okay.

[d_eddie]

42

Dont forget your towel.

Most importantly, don't panic.

[Richy_T]

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.


If you know, you know.

1) Make a list.
2) Don't shop hungry.
3) (optional) shop with cash in an envelope.

[Danish Ali]

42

Dont forget your towel.

Most importantly, don't panic.

Mostly harmless.

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.


If you know, you know.

1) Make a list.
2) Don't shop hungry.
3) (optional) shop with cash in an envelope.

4) Most important... Dont go with her.

[OutOfMemory]

42

Dont forget your towel.

Most importantly, DON'T PANIC.

FTFY 

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-20 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-20 09:04 PM CT

Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $526.7 million on Monday, the largest single-day haul since Sept. 22, and that bid is showing up in the tape: Bitcoin is up 1.54% over 24 hours and 1.6% over seven days, though it still trades below the 30-day average of $83,632. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 63 in Greed for a third straight day, up 10 points on the week, so sentiment is improving even as the 30-day picture remains down 4.2%. Tuesday's other headline is Strive, which closed an upsized $90-per-share IPO of 7 million SATS preferred shares paying a 15% dividend every business day, with the stock trading on Nasdaq and the common up 4%.

Outlook: The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27-28 with Brent crude near $110 a barrel, and higher oil feeds inflation, which raises the odds policy stays tight. Watch whether the ETF bid that showed up Monday persists through the week, and whether Bitcoin can close a day above the $87,371 resistance that would confirm the bounce off $80,000 is turning into a new leg higher.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $82,983.00, up 1.54% over 24 hours and up 1.6% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +3 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers hold a slim edge, but the market is not trending, it is grinding inside a defined band. The computed levels frame the whole picture: support at $81,500 is the line that has to hold, resistance at $84,500 is the ceiling that has to break, and the targets at $80,000 and $86,000 mark where either failure or success would likely carry price next. Greed at 63 tells you positioning is leaning optimistic, which cuts both ways, because crowded optimism can fuel a squeeze higher or set up a fast unwind if support gives way. What flips this is straightforward: a decisive close above $84,500 would hand control to buyers and open the path toward $86,000, while a clean break below $81,500 would hand it to sellers and point toward $80,000. Until one of those happens, the range itself is the story.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $81,500 (47%): triggers: price holds $81,500 on a daily close and keeps chopping between that floor and $84,500 through Friday, with Fear & Greed staying in the 55 to 70 band. Invalidation: a daily close below $81,500 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $84,500 Toward $86,000 (27%): the upside needs a daily close above $84,500 to confirm, and given Greed at 63 the fuel is already partly in place, so a push through that ceiling could extend toward $86,000. Invalidation: price closes back below $84,500 within five trading days after the breakout.
- Breakdown Through $81,500 Toward $80,000 (26%): if sellers force a daily close under $81,500, the range floor fails and the next computed stop is $80,000, a move that would likely drag sentiment down from Greed toward neutral. Invalidation: a daily close back above $81,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Swiss retail access: FINMA approved the country's first retail ETF investing directly in Bitcoin, waiving risk diversification rules and citing Bitcoin's long trading history, though the regulator named neither the fund nor a launch date.
- Oil and the Fed: Brent near $110 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks feeds inflation and raises the odds the Fed holds or hikes at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, a macro overhang sitting underneath both the ETF inflow and the options hedging.
- Treasury competition: Strive's 15% daily-dividend SATS preferred stock and Strategy's proposed daily dividends on its five preferreds point to a structural shift in how public Bitcoin treasury companies raise capital, leaning on yield-bearing instruments rather than debt.

TOP STORIES

1. Strive Debuts SATS Preferred Stock With 15% Daily Dividend
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-debuts-new-preferred-stock
Published: 2026-10-20 03:13 PM CT
Summary: Strive closed an upsized initial public offering of 7,000,000 shares of its SATS preferred stock at $90 per share, and the stock began trading on the Nasdaq on Tuesday. SATS pays a 15% dividend every business day, according to the company. Strive already has another preferred stock, SATA, which pays a variable dividend. The company holds 36,818 BTC worth over $3 billion at current prices, and it announced a purchase of 4,045 BTC between October 12 and 16. Strive completed its all-stock acquisition of Semler Scientific in January 2026, the first case of a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company buying another one, and the company keeps a debt-free balance sheet with no bonds, credit lines, or leveraged positions. Strategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 848,517 coins worth over $60 billion, and Strategy proposed daily dividends for its five preferred stocks last month. Strive's common stock, ASST, traded 4% higher on Tuesday.

2. Bitcoin ETFs Draw $526.7M, Largest Day Since Sept. 22
URL: https://decrypt.co/381444/bitcoin-etfs-best-day-nearly-month-blackrock-does-most-buying
Published: 2026-10-20 01:31 PM CT
Summary: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million on Monday, the largest single-day inflow since $714.7 million on Sept. 22. The session interrupted two weeks of selling in which the funds shed about $910 million, including a $484.9 million exit on Oct. 7 and $82.4 million of net selling on Friday. BlackRock's IBIT brought in $665.2 million, more than the entire net total, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC lost $54.9 million. Spot some shitcoin ETFs lost $103 million for a fourth straight day of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $95.4 million of that, and some different shitcoin ETFs lost $6.7 million. Bitcoin traded near $82,000, close to the $82,300 average cost basis Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev estimated for ETF holders, and the funds remain about $88 million in the red for October with the Federal Reserve meeting on Oct. 27-28.

3. Swiss Regulator FINMA Approves First Retail Bitcoin ETF
URL: https://decrypt.co/381446/swiss-regulator-first-retail-fund-holds-bitcoin-directly
Published: 2026-10-20 02:31 PM CT
Summary: FINMA approved Switzerland's first retail exchange-traded fund that invests directly in Bitcoin. The regulator classified the fund as an "other fund for alternative investments" with a specific risk. FINMA waived the applicable risk diversification rules, citing Bitcoin's long trading history and particularly high trading volume compared with other cryptocurrencies. FINMA did not name the fund or its issuer and gave no launch date, and the regulator said other providers have submitted or announced applications for Bitcoin ETFs. FINMA cleared the Crypto Market Index Fund in September 2021, but sales were restricted to qualified investors rather than the general public, and that fund invested mainly in a basket of crypto assets rather than Bitcoin alone.

4. Bitcoin Holds Above Key Moving Averages Near $83,000 as Momentum Stays Neutral
URL: https://decrypt.co/381435/bitcoins-next-move-heres-what-to-watch
Published: 2026-10-20 12:45 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded just below $83,000 on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day exponential moving average at $80,702.8 and its 200-day EMA at $76,123.1 after bouncing from the $80,000 area. The Relative Strength Index read 53.34, a neutral and slightly positive reading that leaves room for movement in either direction. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 51, up three points from the prior day's 49. Brent crude traded near $110 a barrel amid attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and higher oil prices feed inflation, which raises the odds the Federal Reserve keeps rates high or raises them again when it meets on October 27 and 28. The nearest resistance sits at $87,371, and a daily close above it would confirm the bounce is turning into a new leg higher, while support layers at $80,433, $76,140, $72,671, $69,202, $64,263 and $57,972.

5. Bitcoin Options Traders Hedge as Futures Longs Stay Bullish
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-next-selloff-could-be-amplified-by-the-traders-still-betting-on-its-recovery
Published: 2026-10-20 11:40 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin's 25-delta options skew rose from 5.2% to 8.6% over the week, meaning put options protecting against further losses became more expensive relative to bullish calls. Aggregate funding payments by perpetual futures longs jumped 49.4% to $1.6 million even as spot selling persisted. Glassnode's spot cumulative volume delta widened from -$67 million to -$83.6 million, a 24.7% deterioration showing sell orders increasingly outweighed aggressive buying on covered centralized exchanges. Bitcoin futures open interest slipped 0.3% to $36.4 billion while options open interest rose 3.1% to $38.6 billion, leaving leveraged exposure near the upper end of its historical range. Bitcoin traded near $81,300, more than 2% lower than the previous week, and another break below $80,000 could force leveraged longs to cut positions as investors await the Federal Reserve's Oct. 27-28 policy meeting.

6. JPMorgan Models Bitcoin at $385,000 in 10-Year Bull Case
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/jpmorgan-models-bitcoin-reaching-385000-in-10-year-bull-case-despite-ceo-jamie-dimons-criticism
Published: 2026-10-20 03:30 PM CT
Summary: J.P. Morgan Asset Management published its first long-term Bitcoin scenario analysis in the 31-year history of its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The base case assumes 10% compound annual returns, implying a price of about $215,300 from the report's $83,000 reference price. The bull case projects 16.6% annualized returns toward $385,500, and the bear case assumes 11.2% yearly losses down to roughly $25,300. The firm assigns 65% of its weighting to Bitcoin supply growth relative to money supply expansion and 30% to competition with gold, while network adoption gets only 5% and produces a -3.2% annualized return under the base scenario. Portfolio manager Sheena Shah and strategist Dennis Cristallo wrote that 55% projected volatility and unstable correlations, estimated at 0.33 with US large-cap equities and 0.10 with gold, keep Bitcoin out of strategic portfolio construction for now.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[Biodom]

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.


If you know, you know.

...
3) (optional) shop with cash in an envelope.

They use fancy money clips around here...

OT: anybody's watching the "Slow horses"....not bad at all.

[JayJuanGee]

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.
If you know, you know.

If I had big money bags with me to pay for my stuff, I would do the same thing.

Haha thats the secret. The bags are cheap, its the checkout that hurts.

I will give you a hint.  Look around the room.

What if I told you...........




............wait




............wait    Look around the room.




............wait




............wait



You are the "money bags"

 

[hisslyness]

Been a while since I posted anything meaningful

Life and Work has been super crazy busy at the moment. Took on a couple of big projects. I know i know, I keep saying I would slow down and take some off the table in the last cycle, and maybe hang up the boots!

But that didn't happen the top came and went and life keep marching forward!

Been flat out tinkering with LLM (sorry not yet AI/SI but very very friggen close!). About six months ago, after buying a DGX Spark I was heading down the process of building a LLM trained on WO thread. You could ask it questions about the thread, like "What was JJG job IRL? (A while back he said he had mentioned it in the thread a few times but I couldn't find it...)" "Who is the HAM Radio Expert here" etc etc..... only to find out that was way outta my budget! i had to be rent the Colossus 1 from Elon to even start! So then I went down the RAG path, only to find out that, the LLM plays such a small role, in the overall scheme of things, most things are done using basic coding and database lookup. The LLM shines, by replying in human output!

Anyhow, now mainly using it to help develop and refine previous work, except I find myself going back and "dumbing down" the code, as it is way to elegant for my style. It does make troubleshooting harder when you are not use to such refined work!  Maybe it is just me.

Which got me thinking, how will AI eventually be the dominant "life" form? How many people are actually reviewing every piece of code coming out of their LLM? Imagine a little piece of non-sense code here combined with another little piece non-sense code there and eventually enough combined and develop into something that LLM engineers did not see coming... maybe I am just delusional, as Bob keeps saying exciting time to be alive, but scary at the same time!

Lightning Node, still soldering on! Ran outta space the other day, largely due to Bitcoind database. 1TB Drive are no longer enough (although I should have seen this coming, as the growth was predictable), it caught me off guard and i needed a workaround, ended up installing a 4TB SATA drive to handle the blockchain data and keep everything else (lnd) on the 1TB RAID1 SSD.

I hope everyone here has been well...

TL;DR
"killall -9 crond" could save humanity as we know it!

[Danish Ali]

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.
If you know, you know.

If I had big money bags with me to pay for my stuff, I would do the same thing.

Haha thats the secret. The bags are cheap, its the checkout that hurts.

I will give you a hint.  Look around the room.

What if I told you...........




............wait




............wait    Look around the room.




............wait




............wait



You are the "money bags"

 

"Ohhhh.......!!!!!!!

Thats why........

I always wondered why the checkout always looks at me first. 

[El duderino_]

Bumble in Asia
Bitcoiners know where to go
Permanent stay please.

[vapourminer]

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.
If you know, you know.

If I had big money bags with me to pay for my stuff, I would do the same thing.

Haha thats the secret. The bags are cheap, its the checkout that hurts.

I will give you a hint.  Look around the room.

What if I told you...........

............wait
............wait    Look around the room.
............wait
............wait

You are the "money bags"

"Ohhhh.......!!!!!!!

Thats why........

I always wondered why the checkout always looks at me first.  

"brain the size of a planet" indeed

[Danish Ali]

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.
If you know, you know.

If I had big money bags with me to pay for my stuff, I would do the same thing.

Haha thats the secret. The bags are cheap, its the checkout that hurts.

I will give you a hint.  Look around the room.

What if I told you...........

............wait
............wait    Look around the room.
............wait
............wait

You are the "money bags"

"Ohhhh.......!!!!!!!

Thats why........

I always wondered why the checkout always looks at me first.  

"brain the size of a planet" indeed

Marvin would be proud.

Or depressed.

Probably depressed.

[OutOfMemory]

Marvin would be proud.

Or depressed.

Probably depressed.

Proudness would get Marvin depressed, as usual.

[Danish Ali]

Marvin would be proud.

Or depressed.

Probably depressed.

Proudness would get Marvin depressed, as usual.

Marvin would be proud.

Or depressed.

Probably depressed.

Proudness would get Marvin depressed, as usual.

Happiness is his ultimate enemy anyway.

[d_eddie]

OT: anybody's watching the "Slow horses"....not bad at all.

I'd stretch beyond that and say it's brilliant.
Good writing, excellent dialogue, and a perfect cast.
Gary Oldman alone fills the screen.

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-21 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-21 09:03 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding higher into Wednesday, up 2.17% over 24 hours and 2.5% over seven days, with Fear & Greed at 63 in Greed for a third straight day. The story driving the tape is structural rather than directional: options now make up just under 60% of bitcoin derivatives open interest, up from roughly 50% at the start of the year, per Volmex. That shift toward hedging and risk management is the backdrop for a market that is recovering off its 30-day low but still sits 3.4% below where it traded a month ago.

Outlook: Two scheduled catalysts sit directly under this tape: the Federal Reserve's Oct. 28 rate decision and the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, both of which K33 expects to break the current volatility compression. Watch whether the options-driven hedging build continues to cap upside moves, and whether IBIT's recent inflow streak extends, since that fund alone accounts for nearly $35 billion of the $36 billion in U.S. bitcoin ETF options open interest.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $83,817.00, up 2.17% over 24 hours and up 2.5% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +5 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers hold the initiative for now, and the tape reflects a market that has climbed back from the 30-day drawdown without reclaiming its prior highs. The $81,000 support is the line that matters: it has held through this bounce, and as long as it does, the path of least resistance tilts upward toward $86,500. A decisive close above that resistance would open the $89,000 upside target, while a loss of $81,000 shifts control to sellers and puts $78,500 in play. Sentiment at 63 (Greed) is supportive but not stretched, which leaves room for either continuation or a fade. What would flip this read is a failed retest of $81,000 on rising volume, or a rejection at $86,500 that leaves the market pinned in the middle.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $81,000 (40%): triggers: the market holds $81,000 on a daily close through Friday while Fear & Greed stays at or above 55, keeping the bounce intact and capping upside below $86,500. Invalidation: a daily close below $81,000 within five trading days, or Fear & Greed dropping below 50, ends this range-bound outcome.
- Reclaim of $86,500 Toward $89,000 (37%): triggers: buyers push through $86,500 on a daily close within five trading days, with Fear & Greed rising above 65 confirming momentum, opening the $89,000 upside target. Invalidation: a daily close back below $86,500 after the breakout, or Fear & Greed failing to hold above 60, voids the push.
- Downside Re-test of $78,500 (23%): triggers: a daily close below $81,000 within five trading days, with Fear & Greed slipping toward 50 or lower, sends price toward the $78,500 downside target. Invalidation: a daily close back above $81,000 after the breakdown, or Fear & Greed recovering above 55, cancels the slide.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Volatility compression: K33 flags 28-day realized volatility at 1.2%, near 2026 lows, and expects expansion around the Oct. 28 Fed decision and Nov. 3 midterms, a scheduled catalyst sitting underneath the current grind.
- Preferred equity engineering: Strive's SATS structure and Strategy's STRD illustrate how bitcoin treasury companies are using preferred stock to accrete per-share bitcoin, with Allard Peng noting the accretion depends entirely on SATS holding a premium to par.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Options Near 60% of Derivatives Open Interest as Hedging Grows
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/10/21/bitcoin-risk-management-grows-more-popular-as-the-just-bet-on-price-era-fades
Published: 2026-10-21
Summary: Options made up just under 60% of bitcoin derivatives open interest last week, up from roughly 50% at the start of the year, according to Volmex, the issuer of the BVIV volatility index. Volmex called the growth a structural shift, a sign that trading bitcoin is now about managing risk rather than only betting on direction. Options tied to U.S. bitcoin ETFs held about $36 billion in open interest as of Friday, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for nearly $35 billion of that total. Adding crypto-native options brings the figure to roughly $76 billion, and the broader market including futures reaches about $129 billion. IBIT options open interest has tripled since January 2025, when it was about $11 billion, and BlackRock this week filed for a bitcoin buffer ETF that uses options to limit losses while capping gains.

2. Bitcoin volatility nears 2026 lows as traders brace for Fed decision and US midterms
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-21-bitcoin-volatility-nears-2026-lows-as-traders-brace-for-fed-decision-and-us-midterms-421524
Published: 2026-10-21 06:54 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin's 28-day realized volatility has fallen to 1.2%, near its lowest level of 2026, according to K33. The cryptocurrency traded between $80,000 and $84,000 over the past week, with average daily spot volume of $2.5 billion, down 1% from the prior week. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said expansions typically follow such compressions, and K33 expects volatility to pick up shortly ahead of the Federal Reserve's Oct. 28 rate decision and the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms. BlackRock's IBIT recorded inflows equivalent to 8,128 BTC on Oct. 19, its largest daily inflow in bitcoin terms since April 2025, while all U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of 6,436 BTC that day as other funds posted a combined 1,692 BTC outflow. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has risen again after weakening through August and September, and K33 cautioned that bitcoin's roughly 2% decline during last week's equity sell-off did not amount to a fresh decoupling from stocks.

3. Bitcoin Near $83,000: How to Tell If Support Is Real
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-is-back-near-83000-heres-how-to-assess-its-support
Published: 2026-10-21 06:20 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $83,500 on Oct. 21, up roughly 2.8% over 24 hours, and the question is whether support is actually building beneath it. Glassnode's proximity-weighted cost-basis framework, credited to Fountainhead Digital co-founder Vicky Yang, weights supply by distance from spot, so the same price can meet very different inventory depending on where cost bases sit. Glassnode's Oct. 19 report put 68.2% of Bitcoin supply in profit while spot buying stayed weak, a combination showing broad profitability can coexist with thin demand. The Proximity Support Index measures the share of weighted supply below spot, and a reading above half marks a support-dominant distribution, though cost-basis prices are an imperfect proxy for what owners actually paid. A rally through a modeled reference and a successful retest carry different information, and stronger support requires improving nearby positioning plus buyers absorbing offered supply, with the Oct. 27-28 Fed meeting able to shift demand through rate expectations.

4. Strive's SATS Preferred: How a 15% Yield Could Accrete Bitcoin Per Share
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitcoin-for-corporations/strives-sats-bitcoin-accretion
Published: 2026-10-21 08:52 AM CT
Summary: Strive's newly listed SATS perpetual preferred stock pays a fixed cumulative dividend of $15 per share on a $100 stated amount, ranking junior to the company's SATA preferred. The structure differs from Strategy's STRD, which trades near $71, 29% below par, on a fixed $10 dividend and non-cumulative terms. Allard Peng argues that if income investors bid SATS to a 13% effective yield, the shares would trade at $115.38, letting Strive raise $115 million through an at-the-market offering while creating only $100 million in preferred claims under a Net Bitcoin Per Share methodology, with the $15 million difference accruing to common shareholders. Peng flags that SATS carries a floating liquidation preference tied to recent market prices, and that Strive's planned 18-month dividend reserve of $22.50 per share means only 77.5% of proceeds at par can go into Bitcoin. Peng notes the accretion depends entirely on SATS holding a premium, and that at $90 the effective cost of capital rises to 16.67% and issuance turns dilutive.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[Lucius]

OT: anybody's watching the "Slow horses"....not bad at all.

I'd stretch beyond that and say it's brilliant.
Good writing, excellent dialogue, and a perfect cast.
Gary Oldman alone fills the screen.

One of my favorite series lately is MobLand, brutal, unpredictable and full of adrenaline. I haven't watched Slow Horses yet, but it's definitely on my list.